Challenges in Predicting Financial Distress in Emerging Economies: The Case of Croatia

REFERENCES

• Allison, P. D. 1982. “Discrete-Time Methods for the Analysis of Event Histories.” Sociological Methodology 13 (1):61–98. doi:10.2307/270718.
   Google Scholar
• Altman, E. I. 1968. “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy.” Journal of Finance 23 (4):589–609. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Altman, E. I. and A. Saunders. 1998. “Credit Risk Measurement: Developments over the Last 20 Years.” Journal of Banking and Finance 21 (11–12):1721–42. doi:10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00036-8.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Altman, E. I., R. Haldeman and P. Narayanan. 1977. “ZETA™ Analysis: A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations.” Journal of Banking and Finance 1 (1):29–54. doi:10.1016/0378-4266(77)90017-6.
   Google Scholar
• Atanasijević, J. and M. Božović. 2016. “Exchange Rate as a Determinant of Corporate Loan Defaults in a Euroized Economy: Evidence from Micro-Level Data.” Eastern European Economics 54 (3):228–50. doi:10.1080/00128775.2015.1137198.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Beaver, W. H. 1966. “Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure.” Empirical Research in Accounting, Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research 4:71–111. doi:10.2307/2490171.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Beck, N., J. N. Katz and R. Tucker. 1998. “Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable.” American Journal of Political Science 42 (4):1260–88. doi:10.2307/2991857.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bhattacharjee, A., C. Higson, S. Holly and P. Kattuman. 2009a. “ Macroeconomic Instability and Corporate Failure: The Role of the Legal System.” Review of Law & Economics 5 (1):1–32. doi:10.2202/1555-5879.1136.
   Google Scholar
• Bhattacharjee, A., C. Higson, S. Holly and P. Kattuman. 2009b. “Macroeconomic Instability and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms.” Economica 76 (301):108–31. doi:10.1111/ecca.2009.76.issue-301.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bonfim, D. 2009. “Credit Risk Drivers: Evaluating the Contribution of Firm Level Information and of Macroeconomic Dynamics.” Journal of Banking and Finance 33 (2):281–99. doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2008.08.006.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bruneau, C., O. De Bandt and W. El Amri. 2012. “Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Corporate Financial Fragility.” Journal of Financial Stability 8 (4):219–35. doi:10.1016/j.jfs.2012.02.002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bunn, P. and V. Redwood. 2003. “Company Accounts-Based Modelling of Business Failures and the Implications for Financial Stability.” Working Paper No. 210, Bank of England, London, UK. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/2003/wp210.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Carling, K., T. Jacobson, J. Lindé and K. Roszbach. 2007. “Corporate Credit Risk Modeling and the Macroeconomy.” Journal of Banking and Finance 31 (3):845–68. doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.06.012.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Charalambakis, E. C. 2014. “On Corporate Financial Distress Prediction: What Can We Learn from Private Firms in a Small Open Economy?” Working Paper No. 188, Bank of Greece, Athens, Greece. http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogEkdoseis/Paper2014188.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Charalambakis, E. C. and I. Garrett. 2016. “On the Prediction of Financial Distress in Developed and Emerging Markets: Does the Choice of Accounting and Market Information Matter? A Comparison of UK and Indian Firms.” Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 47 (1):1–28. doi:10.1007/s11156-014-0492-y.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chava, S. and R. A. Jarrow. 2004. “Bankruptcy Prediction with Industry Effects.” Review of Finance 8 (4):537–69. doi:10.1093/rof/8.4.537.
   Google Scholar
• Cuthbertson, K. and J. Hudson. 1996. “The Determinants of Compulsory Liquidations in the UK.” The Manchester School 64 (3):298–308. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9957.1996.tb00487.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Davis, E. P. 1987. “Rising Sectoral Debt/Income Ratios: A Cause for Concern?” BIS Economic Papers, No. 20, Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland. http://www.bis.org/publ/econ20.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Duffie, D., L. Saita and K. Wang. 2007. “Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction with Stochastic Covariates.” Journal of Financial Economics 83 (3):635–65. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.10.011.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Edmister, R. O. 1972. “An Empirical Test of Financial Ratio Analysis for Small Business Failure Prediction.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 7 (2):1477–93. doi:10.2307/2329929.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Filipe, S. F., T. Grammatikos and D. Michala. 2016. “Forecasting Distress in European SME Portfolios.” Journal of Banking and Finance 64 (1):112–35. doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.12.007.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gupta, J., A. Gregoriou and T. Ebrahimi. 2017. “Empirical Comparison of Hazard Models in Predicting SMEs Failure.” Quantitative Finance 1–30. doi:10.1080/14697688.2017.1307514.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Halim, A., S. N. Mohd Daud, A. Rizal Mazlan and A. Marzuki. 2008. “Macroeconomic Determinants of Corporate Failures in Malaysia.” International Journal of Business and Management 3 (3):3–10. doi:10.5539/ijbm.v3n3p3.
   Google Scholar
• Hazak, A. and K. Männasoo. 2010. “Indicators of Corporate Default: An EU-Based Empirical Study.” Transformations in Business & Economics 9 (1):62–76. http://www.transformations.knf.vu.lt/19/article/indi
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jacobson, T., J. Lindé and K. Roszbach. 2005. “Exploring Interactions Between Real Activity and the Financial Stance.” Journal of Financial Stability 1 (3):308–41. doi:10.1016/j.jfs.2005.02.011.
   Google Scholar
• Jacobson, T., J. Lindé and K. Roszbach. 2013. “Firm Default and Aggregate Fluctuations.” Journal of the European Economic Association 11 (4):945–72. doi:10.1111/jeea.12020.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jenkins, S. P. 2005. Survival Analysis. Colchester, UK: Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex. https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/resources/survival-analysis-with-stata
   Google Scholar
• Johnsen, T. and R. W. Melicher. 1994. “Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy and Financial Distress: Information Value Added by Multinomial Logit Models.” Journal of Economics and Business 46 (4):269–86. doi:10.1016/0148-6195(94)90038-8.
   Google Scholar
• Keasey, K., J. Pindado and L. Rodrigues. 2014. “The Determinants of the Costs of Financial Distress in SMEs.” International Small Business Journal 33 (8):862–81. doi:10.1177/0266242614529317.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lennox, C. 1999. “Identifying Failing Companies: A Re-Evaluation of the Logit, Probit and DA Approaches.” Journal of Economics and Business 51 (4):347–64. doi:10.1016/S0148-6195(99)00009-0.
   Google Scholar
• Liu, J. 2004. “Macroeconomic Determinants of Corporate Failures: Evidence from the UK.” Applied Economics 36 (9):939–45. doi:10.1080/0003684042000233168.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liu, J. and N. Wilson. 2002. “Corporate Failure Rates and the Impact of the 1986 Insolvency Act: An Econometric Analysis.” Managerial Finance 28 (6):61–71. doi:10.1108/03074350210767924.
   Google Scholar
• Männasoo, K. 2008. “Patterns of Firm Survival in Estonia.” Eastern European Economics 46 (4):27–42. doi:10.2753/EEE0012-8775460402.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nam, C. W., T. S. Kim, N. J. Park and H. K. Lee. 2008. “Bankruptcy Prediction Using a Discrete‐Time Duration Model Incorporating Temporal and Macroeconomic Dependencies.” Journal of Forecasting 27 (6):493–506. doi:10.1002/for.v27:6.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ohlson, J. A. 1980. “Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy.” Journal of Accounting Research 18 (1):109–31. doi:10.2307/2490395.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Platt, H. and M. B. Platt. 2006. “Understanding Differences Between Financial Distress and Bankruptcy.” Review of Applied Economics 2 (2):211–27. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/50146/files/1-Harlan%20D%20Platt.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Platt, H. and M. B. Platt. 2009. “Financial Distress Comparison Across Three Global Regions.” Journal of Risk and Financial Management 1 (1):129–62. doi:10.3390/jrfm1010129.
   Google Scholar
• Rabe-Hesketh, S. and A. Skrondal. 2012. Multilevel and Longitudinal Modeling Using Stata. Vol. II: Categorical Responses, Counts and Survival, 3rd ed. College Station, TX: Stata.
   Google Scholar
• Rommer, A. D. 2005. “A Comparative Analysis of the Determinants of Financial Distress in French, Italian and Spanish Firms.” Working Paper No. 26, Danmarks Nationalbank, Copenhagen, Denmark. https://www.nationalbanken.dk/en/publications/Documents/2005/05/wp26_samlet.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Sajter, D. 2010. “Challenges for a Mature Insolvency System in a Transitional Economy: Lessons from Croatia.” International Insolvency Review 19 (2):133–44. doi:10.1002/iir.v19:2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Salman, K. A., Y. Friedrichs and G. Shukur. 2009. “Macroeconomic Factors and Swedish Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturing Firm Failure.” Working Paper No. 185, Royal Institute of Technology Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies (CESIS), Stockholm, Sweden. https://static.sys.kth.se/itm/wp/cesis/cesiswp185.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Shumway, T. 2001. “Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model.” Journal of Business 74 (1):101–24. doi:10.1086/jb.2001.74.issue-1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Taffler, R. J. 1982. “Forecasting Company Failure in the UK Using Discriminant Analysis and Financial Ratio Data.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 145 (3):342–58. doi:10.2307/2981867.
   Google Scholar
• Tinoco, M. H. and N. Wilson. 2013. “Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction Among Listed Companies Using Accounting, Market and Macroeconomic Variables.” International Review of Financial Analysis 30:394–419. doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2013.02.013.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tomas Žiković, I., S. Žiković and D. Bodul. 2014. “Novelties and Problems in Implementing the Bankruptcy Law in the Republic of Croatia.” Ekonomski Pregled/Economic Review 65 (4):318–51. https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/186723
   Google Scholar
• Vlieghe, G. W. 2001. “Indicators of Fragility in the UK Corporate Sector.” Working Paper No. 146, Bank of England, London, UK. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/2001/wp146.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Wadhwani, S. B. 1986. “Inflation, Bankruptcy, Default Premia and the Stock Market.” Economic Journal 96 (381):120–38. doi:10.2307/2233429.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wilson, N., P. Ochotnický and M. Káčer. 2016. “Creation and Destruction in Transition Economies: The SME Sector in Slovakia.” International Small Business Journal 34 (5):579–600. doi:10.1177/0266242614558892.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wooldridge, J. M. 2002. Econometric Analysis of Cross-Section and Panel Data, 2nd ed. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. doi:10.2307/j.ctt5hhcfr.
   Google Scholar
• Young, G. 1995. “Company Liquidations, Interest Rates and Debt.” Manchester School Supplement 63:57–69. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9957.1995.tb01448.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zavgren, C. V. 1985. “Assessing the Vulnerability to Failure of American Industrial Firms: A Logistic Analysis.” Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 12 (1):19–45. doi:10.1111/jbfa.1985.12.issue-1.
   Google Scholar