226
Views
3
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Factors Driving Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Does the Central Bank’s Inflation Forecast Really Matter?

ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon

REFERENCES

  • Bachmann, R., T. O. Berg, and E. R. Sims. 2015. “Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 7 (1):1–35. doi:10.1257/pol.20130292.
  • Batchelor, R. A., and A. B. Orr. 1988. “Inflation Expectations Revisited.” Economica 55 (219):317–31. doi:10.2307/2554010.
  • Bauer, A., R. A. Eisenbeis, D. F. Waggoner, and T. Zha. 2006. “Transparency, Expectations, and Forecasts.” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, 91 (1):1–25. https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/economic-review/2006/vol91no1_bauer-eisenbeis-waggoner-zha.pdf.
  • Berk, J. M. 1999. “Measuring Inflation Expectations.” Applied Economics 31 (11):467–1480. doi:10.1080/000368499323337.
  • Binder, C. 2017. “Fed Speak on Main Street: Central Bank Communication and Household Expectations.” Journal of Macroeconomics 52:238–51. doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.05.003.
  • BoE, 2016. November. Inflation Report. London, UK: Bank of England. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2016/november-2016.pdf.
  • Brzoza-Brzezina, M., and A. Kot. 2008. “The Relativity Theory Revised: Is Publishing Interest Rates Forecast Really So Valuable?” NBP Working Paper No. 52, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw, Poland. https://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/52_en.pdf.
  • Capistrán, C., and M. Ramos-Francia. 2010. “Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42 (1):113–34. doi:10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00280.x.
  • Carlson, J. A., and J. M. Parkin. 1975. “Inflation Expectations.” Economica 42:123–38. doi:10.2307/2553588.
  • Carroll, C. D. 2003. “Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (1):269–98. doi:10.1162/00335530360535207.
  • Clinton, K., T. Hlédik, T. Holub, D. Laxton, and H. Wang. 2017. “Czech Magic: Implementing Inflation-Forecast Targeting at CNB.” IMF Working Paper No. 17/21, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. doi:10.5089/9781475572971.001.
  • CNB. 2016. Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic. Prague, Czech Republic: Czech National Bank. https://www.cnb.cz/en/monetary_policy/inflation_targeting.html.
  • Coibion, O., and Y. Gorodnichenko. 2015. “Is the Phillips Curve Alive After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7 (1):197–232. doi:10.1257/mac.20130306.
  • Döpke, J., J. Dovern, U. Fritsche, and J. Slacalek. 2008. “The Dynamic of European Inflation Expectations.” B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 8 (1):1–23. doi:10.2202/1935-1690.1540.
  • Dräger, L. 2015. “Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Sweden—Are Media Reports the Missing Link?” Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics 77 (5):681–700. doi:10.1111/obes.12078.
  • EC. 2016. “The Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. User Guide.” European Commission, Brussels, Belgium. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/documents/bcs_user_guide_en.pdf.
  • Efron, B., and R. J. Tibshirani. 1993. An Introduction to the Bootstrap. New York, NY: Chapman & Hall.
  • Ehrmann, M., S. Eijffinger, and M. Fratzscher. 2012. “The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts.” Scandinavian Journal of Economics 114 (3):1018–52. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9442.2012.01706.x.
  • Fuijwara, I. 2005. “Is the Central Bank’s Publication of Economic Forecasts Influential?” Economic Letters 89:255–61. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2005.05.036.
  • Galí, J. 2008. Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Goodhart, C. A. E., and W. B. Lim. 2011. “Interest Rate Forecast: A Pathology.” International Journal of Central Banking 7 (2):135–71. http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb11q2a5.pdf.
  • Hall, P. 1992. The Bootstrap and Edgeworth Expansion. New York, NY: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-4384-7.
  • Hallsten, K., and S. Tägtström. 2009. “The Decision-Making Process—How the Executive Board of the Riksbank Decides on the Repo Rate.” Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 1:69–89. http://archive.riksbank.se/Upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/PoV_sve/eng/2009/er2009_1_eng.pdf.
  • Harris, D., B. McCabe, and S. Leybourne. 2008. “Testing for Long Memory.” Econometric Theory 24 (1):143–75. doi:10.1017/S0266466608080080.
  • Hosking, J. R. M. 1980. “The Multivariate Portmanteau Statistic.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 75:602–8. doi:10.1080/01621459.1980.10477520.
  • Hubert, P. 2014. “FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 46 (7):1381–420. doi:10.1111/jmcb.
  • Hubert, P. 2015a. “Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents Forecasting Performance vs. Signals?” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 47 (4):771–89. doi:10.1111/jmcb.12227.
  • Hubert, P. 2015b. “The Influence and Policy Signaling Role of FOMC Forecasts.” Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics 75 (5):655–80. doi:10.1111/obes.12093.
  • King, R. G., C. I. Plosser, J. H. Stock, and M. W. Watson. 1991. “Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations.” American Economic Review 81:819–40. doi:10.2307/2006644.
  • Kokoszczyński, R., T. Łyziak, and E. Stanisławska. 2010. “Consumer Inflation Expectations: Usefulness of Survey-Based Measures—A Cross-Country Survey.” In Inflation Expectations, edited by P. Sinclair, 76–100. Oxford, UK: Routledge. doi:10.4324/9780203863718-10.
  • Kotłowski, J. 2015. “Do Central Bank Forecast Matter for Professional Forecasters?” Finance a Úvěr—Czech Journal of Economics and Finance 65 (6):432–54. http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1342_kotlowski.pdf.
  • Kowalczyk, H., and E. Stanisławska. 2016. “Are Experts Probabilistic Forecasts Similar to NBP Projections?” NBP Working Paper No. 238, National Bank of Poland,Warsaw,Poland. https://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/238_en.pdf.
  • Krušec, D. 2011. “Is Inflation Targeting Effective? Monetary Transmission in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary.” Eastern European Economics 49 (1):52–71. doi:10.2753/EEE0012-8775490104.
  • Li, W., and A. McLeod. 1981. “Distribution of the Residual Autocorrelations in Multivariate ARMA Time Series Models.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological) 43 (2):231–9. doi:10.2307/2984853.
  • Lütkepohl, H. 2007. New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Berlin, Germany: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1.
  • Łyziak, T. 2013a. “Formation of Inflation Expectations by Different Economic Agents: The Case of Poland.” Eastern European Economics 51 (6):5–33. doi:10.2753/EEE0012-8775510601.
  • Łyziak, T. 2013b. “Non-Positive Scaling Factor in Probability Quantification Methods: Deriving Consumer Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in the Whole Euro Area and Ireland.” Comparative Economic Studies 55:77–98. doi:10.1057/ces.2012.31.
  • Łyziak, T., and J. Mackiewicz-Łyziak. 2014. “Do Consumers in Europe Anticipate Future Inflation? Has It Changed Since the Beginning of the Financial Crisis?” Eastern European Economics 52 (3):5–32. doi:10.2753/EEE0012-8775520301.
  • Mishkin, F. S. 2009. Monetary Policy Strategy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Mitchell, J., and M. Weale. 2007. “The Rationality and Reliability of Expectations Reported by British Households: Micro Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey.” Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies No. 19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany. https://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Downloads/Publications/Discussion_Paper_1/2007/2007_08_21_dkp_19.pdf?__blob=publicationFile.
  • Premik, F., and E. Stanisławska. 2017. “The Impact of Inflation Expectations on Polish Consumers’ Spending and Saving.” Eastern European Economics 55 (1):3–28. doi:10.1080/00128775.2016.1260474.
  • Svensson, L. E. O. 1997. “Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets.” European Economic Review 41 (6):1111–46. doi:10.1016/S0014-2921(96)00055-4.
  • Szyszko, M. 2017. “Measurement of Inflation Forecast Targeting. A Proposal of Methodological Solution.” E&M Economics and Management 4:4–19. doi:10.15240/tul/001/2017-4-001.
  • Woodford, M. 2003. Interest and Prices: Foundations of Theory of Monetary Policy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Woodford, M. 2012. “Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy: Policy Rules in Practice.” In The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, edited by E. F. Koeing, R. Leeon, and G. A. Kahn, 185–233. Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.