Demand forecasting and smoothing capacity planning for products with high random demand volatility

References

• Bagchi , U , Hayya , JC and Ord , JK . 1984 . Modeling demand during lead-time . Dec. Sci. , 15 : 157 – 176 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barnes-Schuster , D , Bassok , T and Anupindi , R . 2002 . Coordination and flexibility in supply contracts with options . Manuf. Service Oper. Manag. , 4 : 171 – 207 .
   Google Scholar
• Bartezzaghi , E , Verganti , R and Zotteri , G . 1999 . Measuring the impact of asymmetrical demand distribution on inventories . Int. J. Prod. Econ. , 60–61 : 395 – 404 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bellalah , M . 2002 . Valuing lease contracts under incomplete information: a real-options approach . Eng. Econ. , 47 : 194
   Google Scholar
• Benavides , DL , Dule Amram , M and Kulatilaka , N . 1999 . Real Options: Managing Strategic Investment in an Uncertain World , Boston, MA : Harvard Business Press .
   Google Scholar
• Boyle , P , Broadie , M and Glasserman , P . 1997 . Monte Carlo methods for security pricing . J. Econ. Dyn. Contr. , 21 : 1267 – 1321 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boyle , P . 1977 . Options: a Monte Carlo approach . J. Financ. Econ. , 4 : 323 – 338 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Copeland , T and Antikarov , V . 2001 . Real Options , New York, NY : TEXERE .
   Google Scholar
• Dixit , AK and Pindyck , RS . 1995 . The option approach to capital investment . Harv. Bus. Rev. , 73 : 105 – 115 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dunsmuir , WTM and Snyder , RD . 1989 . Control of inventories with intermittent demand . Eur. J. Oper. Res. , 40 : 16 – 21 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• He , H and Pindyck , RS . 1992 . Investment in flexible production capacity . J. Econ. Dyn. Contr. , 13 : 575 – 599 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hull , J and White , A . 1998 . Incorporating volatility updating into the historical simulation method for value-at-risk . J. Risk , 1 : 5 – 19 .
   Google Scholar
• Hurry , D , Miller , AT and Bowman , EH . 1992 . Calls on high-technology: Japanese exploration of venture capital investments in the United States . J. Environ. Econ. Manag. , 44 : 471 – 492 .
   Google Scholar
• Kellogg , D and Charnes , JM . 2000 . Real-options valuation for a biotechnology company . Financ. Analyst. J. , 56 : 76 – 84 .
   Google Scholar
• Kulatilaka , N and Trigeorgis , L . 1994 . The general flexibility to switch: real options revisited . Int. J. Financ. , 6 : 778 – 798 .
   Google Scholar
• Law , A and Kelton , W . 1991 . Simulation Modeling & Analysis , 2nd , New York, NY : McGraw-Hill .
   Google Scholar
• Makridakis , S and Wheelwright , SC . 1985 . Forecasting Methods for Management , New York, NY : Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• McGrath , RC and MacMillan , IC . 2000 . Assessing technology projects using real option reasoning . Res. Tech. Manag. , 39 : 35 – 49 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mun , J . 2002 . Real Options Analysis , New York, NY : Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• Myers , SC . 1977 . Determinants of corporate borrowing . J. Financ. Econ. , 5 : 147 – 175 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nembhard , HB , Leyuan , S and Mehment , A . 2003 . A real options design for product outsourcing . Eng. Econ. , 48 : 199
   Google Scholar
• Perlitz , M . 1999 . Real options valuation: the new frontier in R&D project evaluation . R&D Manag. , 29 : 255 – 269 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pindyck , R . 1988 . Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm . Am. Econ. Rev. , 78 : 141 – 183 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ross , A . 1990 . A Course in Simulation , New York, NY : Macmillan .
   Google Scholar
• Schwartz , ES and Moon , M . 2000 . Rational pricing of Internet companies . Financ. Analyst. J. , 56 : 62 – 75 .
   Google Scholar
• Schwartz , ES and Moon , M . 2001 . Rational pricing of Internet companies revisited . Financ. Rev. , 36 : 7 – 26 .
   Google Scholar
• Silver , EA , Pycke , DF and Peterson , R . 1998 . Inventory Management and Production Planning and Scheduling , New York, NY : Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• Taudes , A . 1998 . Software growth options . J. Manag. Informat. Sys. , 15 : 165 – 185 .
   Google Scholar
• Trigeorgis , L . 1997 . Real Option: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation , 2nd , Westport, CT : Parager .
   Google Scholar
• Trigeorgis , L . 1993b . Real options and interactions with financial flexibility . Financ. Manag. , 22 : 202 – 224 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Trigeorgis , L . 1999 . Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation , 4th , Cambridge, MA : MIT Press .
   Google Scholar
• Trigeorgis , L . 1993a . The nature of option interactions and the valuation of investments with multiple real options . J. Financ. Quantit. Anal. , 28 : 1 – 20 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Trigeorgis , L and Mason , SP . 1987 . Valuing managerial flexibility . Midland Corp. Financ. J. , 5 : 14 – 21 .
   Google Scholar
• Willemain , TR , Smart , CN , Shockor , JH and DeSautels , PA . 1994 . Forecasting intermittent demand in manufacturing: a comparative evaluation using Croston's method . Int. J. Forecast. , 10 : 529 – 538 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar