Divergences in trends in child and adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Survey evidence on the survival of children and siblings

References

• Aaby, P., B. Samb, F. Simondon, A. Seck, K. Knudsen, and H. Whittle. 1995. Non-specific beneficial effect of measles immunisation: analysis of mortality studies from developing countries, British Medical Journal 311(7003): 481–85. 10.1136/bmj.311.7003.481
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alkema, L., and D. You. 2012. Child mortality estimation: a comparison of UN IGME and IHME estimates of levels and trends in under-five mortality rates and deaths, PLoS Medicine 9(8): e1001288. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001288
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• ANSD [Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de la Démographie du Sénégal]. 2012. Sénégal: Enquête démographique et de santé à indicateurs multiples (EDSV-MICS), 2010–2011 [Senegal: Demographic and Health Survey and Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2010–2011 (DHS-MICS)]. Calverton, MD: ORC Macro.
   Google Scholar
• Behrman, J. 1988. The impact of economic adjustment programs, in D. Bell and M. Riech (eds.), Health, Nutrition, and Economic Crises: Approaches to Policy in the Third World. Westport, CT: Greenwood Publishing Group, pp. 103–144.
   Google Scholar
• Bhutta, Z., M. Chopra, H. Axelson, P. Berman, T. Boerma, J. Bryce, F. Bustreo, E. Cavagnero, G. Cometto, B. Daelmans, A. de Francisco, H. Fogstad, N. Gupta, L. Laski, J. Lawn, B. Maliqi, E. Mason, C. Pitt, J. Requejo, A. Starrs, C. Victora, and T. Wardlaw. 2010. Countdown to 2015 decade report (2000–10): taking stock of maternal, newborn, and child survival, The Lancet 375(9730): 2032–2044. 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60678-2
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brass, W., A. Coale, P. Demeny, D. Heisel, F. Lorimer, A. Romaniuk, and E. van de Walle. 1968. The Demography of Tropical Africa. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Coale, A., P. Demeny, and B. Vaughan. 1983. Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations (2nd ed.). New York: Academic Press.
   Google Scholar
• Cornia, G., R. Jolly, and F. Stewart (Eds). 1987. Adjustment with a Human Face: Protecting the Vulnerable and Promoting Growth. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
   Google Scholar
• Dalal, S., J. Beunza, J. Volmink, C. Adebamowo, F. Bajunirwe, M. Njelekela, D. Mozaffarian, W. Fawzi, W. Willett, H. Adami, and M. Holmes. 2011. Non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: what we know now, International Journal of Epidemiology 40(4): 885–901. 10.1093/ije/dyr050
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Desgrées du Loû, A., G. Pison, and P. Aaby. 1995. Role of immunizations in the recent decline in childhood mortality and the changes in the female/male mortality ratio in rural Senegal, American Journal of Epidemiology 142(6): 643–652.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dorrington, R., D. Bourne, D. Bradshaw, R. Laubscher, and I. Timaeus. 2001. The Impact of HIV/AIDS on Adult Mortality in South Africa. Tygerberg: South African Medical Research Council.
   Google Scholar
• Duthé, G., and G. Pison. 2008. Adult mortality in a rural area of Senegal: non-communicable diseases have a large impact in Mlomp, Demographic Research 19(37): 1419–1434.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Feeney, G. 2001. The impact of HIV/AIDS on adult mortality in Zimbabwe, Population and Development Review 27(4): 771–780. 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00771.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Flaxman, A., N. Fullman, M. Otten, M. Menon, R. Cibulskis, M. Ng, C. Murray, and S. Lim. 2010. Rapid scaling up of insecticide-treated bed net coverage in Africa and its relationship with development assistance for health: a systematic synthesis of supply, distribution, and household survey data, PLoS Medicine 7(8): e1000328. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000328
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gregson, S., T. Zhuwau, R. Anderson, and S. Chandiwana. 1998. Is there evidence for behaviour change in response to AIDS in rural Zimbabwe Social Science and Medicine 46(3): 321–30. 10.1016/S0277-9536(97)00165-2
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hastie, T., and R. Tibshirani. 1986. Generalized additive models, Statistical Science 1(3): 297–310. 10.1214/ss/1177013604
   Google Scholar
• Helleringer, S., G. Pison, M. Kanté, G. Duthé, and A. Andro. Forthcoming. Reporting errors in siblings' survival histories and their impact on adult mortality estimates: Results from a record linkage study in Senegal, Demography.
   Google Scholar
• Hill, A. 1993. Trends in childhood mortality, in K. Foote, K. Hill, and L. Martin (eds.), Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, pp. 153–217.
   Google Scholar
• Hill, K., and M. Figueroa. 2001. Child mortality estimation by time since first birth, in B. Zaba and J. Blacker (eds.), Brass Tacks: Essays in Medical Demography. London: Athlone Press, pp. 9–19.
   Google Scholar
• Hill, K., D. You, M. Inoue, M. Oestergaard, and Technical Advisory Group of the UN-IGME. 2012. Child mortality estimation: accelerated progress in reducing global child mortality, 1990–2010, PLoS Medicine 9(8): e1001303. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001303
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hogan, M., K. Foreman, M. Naghavi, S. Ahn, M. Wang, S. Makela, A. Lopez, R. Lozano, and C. Murray. 2010. Maternal mortality for 181 countries, 1980–2008: a systematic analysis of progress towards Millennium Development Goal 5, The Lancet 375(9726): 1609–23. 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60518-1
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Human Mortality Database. 2012. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available: http://www.mortality.org (accessed: 1 April 2012).
   Google Scholar
• INDEPTH Network. 2004. INDEPTH Model Life Tables for Sub-Saharan Africa. London: Ashgate.
   Google Scholar
• Johnson, K., S. Rutstein, and P. Govindasamy. 2005. The Stall in Mortality Decline in Ghana: Further Analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys Data. Calverton, MD: ORC Macro.
   Google Scholar
• Johnston, S., S. Mendis, and C. Mathers. 2009. Global variation in stroke burden and mortality: estimates from monitoring, surveillance, and modelling, The Lancet Neurology 8(4): 345–354. 10.1016/S1474-4422(09)70023-7
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lozano, R., H. Wang, K. Foreman, J. Rajaratnam, M. Naghavi, J. Marcus, L. Dwyer-Lindgren, K. Lofgren, D. Phillips, C. Atkinson, A. Lopez, and C. Murray. 2011. Progress towards Millennium development goals 4 and 5 on maternal and child mortality: an updated systematic analysis, The Lancet 378(9797): 1139–1165. 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)61337-8
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marston, M., B. Zaba, J. Salomon, H. Brahmbhatt, and D. Bagenda. 2005. Estimating the net effect of HIV on child mortality in African populations affected by generalized HIV epidemics, Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 38(2): 219–227. 10.1097/00126334-200502010-00015
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mathers, C., D. Fat, M. Inoue, C. Rao, and A. Lopez. 2005. Counting the dead and what they died from: an assessment of the global status of cause of death data, Bulletin of the World Health Organization 83(3): 171–177.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mayosi, B., A. Flisher, U. Lalloo, F. Sitas, S. Tollman, and D. Bradshaw. 2009. The burden of non-communicable diseases in South Africa, The Lancet 374(9693): 934–947. 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61087-4
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ndiaye, S., and M. Ayad. 2006. Enquête démographique et de santé: Sénégal 2005 [Demographic and Health Survey: Senegal 2005]. Calverton, MD: ORC Macro.
   Google Scholar
• Notkola, V., I. Timaeus, and H. Siiskonen. 2004. Impact on mortality of the AIDS epidemic in northern Namibia assessed using parish registers, AIDS 18(7): 1061–1065. 10.1097/00002030-200404300-00015
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Obermeyer, Z., J. Rajaratnam, C. Park, E. Gakidou, M. Hogan, A. Lopez, and C. Murray. 2010. Measuring adult mortality using sibling survival: a new analytical method and new results for 44 countries, 1974–2006, PLoS Medicine 7(4): e1000260. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000260
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pison, G., and A. Desgrées du Loû. 1993. Bandafassi (Sénégal): Niveaux et tendances démographiques 1971–1991 [Bandafassi (Senegal): Demographic Trends and Levels 1971–1991], Dossier et Recherches No. 40. Paris: Institut national d'études démographiques.
   Google Scholar
• Pison, G., L. Douillot, G. Duthé, M. Kante, C. Sokhna, and J. Trape. 2013. Successes and Failures in the Fight Against Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from Senegal, a Country with Low HIV Prevalence, Document de Travail No. 195. Paris: Institut national d'études démographiques.
   Google Scholar
• Pison, G., K. Hill, B. Cohen, and K. Foote. 1995. Population Dynamics of Senegal. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
   Google Scholar
• Pison, G., and A. Langaney. 1985. The level and age pattern of mortality in Bandafassi (Eastern Senegal): results from a small-scale and intensive multi-round survey, Population Studies 39(3): 387–405. 10.1080/0032472031000141586
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pullum, T. 2006. An Assessment of Age and Date Reporting in the DHS Surveys, 1985–2003, DHS Methodological Reports No. 5. Calverton, MD: Macro International Inc.
   Google Scholar
• Rajaratnam, J., J. Marcus, A. Flaxman, H. Wang, A. Levin-Rector, L. Dwyer, M. Costa, A. Lopez, and C. Murray. 2010a. Neonatal, postneonatal, childhood, and under-5 mortality for 187 countries, 1970–2010: a systematic analysis of progress towards Millennium development goal 4, The Lancet 375(9730): 1988–2008. 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60703-9
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rajaratnam, J., J. Marcus, A. Levin-Rector, A. Chalupka, H. Wang, L. Dwyer, M. Costa, A. Lopez, and C. Murray. 2010b. Worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15–59 years from 1970 to 2010: a systematic analysis, The Lancet 375(9727): 1704–1720. 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60517-X
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rajaratnam, J., L. Tran, A. Lopez, and C. Murray. 2010c. Measuring under-five mortality: validation of new low-cost methods, PLoS Medicine 7(4): e1000253. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000253
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reniers, G. 2008. Marital strategies for regulating exposure to HIV, Demography 45(2): 417–438. 10.1353/dem.0.0002
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reniers, G., and J. Eaton. 2009. Refusal bias in HIV prevalence estimates from nationally representative seroprevalence surveys, AIDS 23(5): 621–629. 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283269e13
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reniers, G., B. Masquelier, and P. Gerland. 2011. Adult mortality in Africa, in R. Rogers, and E. Crimmins (eds.), International Handbook of Adult Mortality. New York: Springer, pp. 151–170.
   Google Scholar
• Schoumaker, B. 2009. Stalls in Fertility Transitions in Sub-Saharan Africa: Real or Spurious? Working Paper 30 (DT-SPED-30). Belgium: Département des Sciences de la Population et du Développement, Université Catholique de Louvain.
   Google Scholar
• Seedat, M., A. Van Niekerk, R. Jewkes, S. Suffla, and K. Ratele. 2009. Violence and injuries in South Africa: prioritising an agenda for prevention, The Lancet 374(9694): 1011–1022. 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60948-X
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Silva, R. 2012. Child mortality estimation: consistency of under-five mortality rate estimates using full birth histories and summary birth histories, PLoS Medicine 9(8): e1001296. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001296
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stoneburner, R., and D. Low-Beer. 2004. Population-level HIV declines and behavioral risk avoidance in Uganda, Science 304(5671): 714–718. 10.1126/science.1093166
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stover, J., P. Johnson, T. Hallett, M. Marston, R. Becquet, and I. Timaeus. 2010. The Spectrum projection package: improvements in estimating incidence by age and sex, mother-to-child transmission, HIV progression in children and double orphans, Sexually Transmitted Infections 86(S2): 16–21.
   Google Scholar
• Sullivan, J. 1972. Models for the estimation of the probability of dying between birth and exact ages of early childhood, Population Studies 26(1): 79–97.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Timaeus, I., and M. Jasseh. 2004. Adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from demographic and health surveys, Demography 41(4): 757–772. 10.1353/dem.2004.0037
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Trape, J., G. Pison, M. Preziosi, C. Enel, A. Desgrées du Loû, V. Delaunay, B. Samb, E. Lagarde, J. Molez, and F. Simondon. 1998. Impact of chloroquine resistance on malaria mortality, Comptes rendus de l'Académie des sciences, Series III, Sciences de la vie [Proceedings of the Academy of Sciences, Series III, Life Sciences] 321(8): 689–697.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Trape, J., C. Sauvage, O. Ndiaye, L. Douillot, A. Marra, A. Diallo, B. Cisse, B. Greenwood, P. Milligan, C. Sokhna, and J. Molez. 2012. New malaria-control policies and child mortality in Senegal: reaching Millennium development goal 4, Journal of Infectious Diseases 205(4): 672–679. 10.1093/infdis/jir805
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• UNAIDS. 2012. UNAIDS Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic: 2012. Geneva: UNAIDS.
   Google Scholar
• UNICEF. 2007. Vitamin A Supplementation: A Decade of Progress. New York: UNICEF.
   Google Scholar
• UNICEF/WHO. 2012. Immunization Summary: A Statistical Reference Containing Data Through 2010. Available: http://www.childinfo.org/files/immunization_summary_en.pdf (accessed: 1 April 2012).
   Google Scholar
• United Nations. 2005. World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, Vol. III: Analytical Report. New York: United Nations.
   Google Scholar
• United Nations. 2011. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. CD-ROM Edition—Extended Dataset in Excel and ASCII formats. New York: United Nations.
   Google Scholar
• Walker, N., K. Hill, and F. Zhao. 2012. Child mortality estimation: methods used to adjust for bias due to AIDS in estimating trends in under-five mortality, PLoS Medicine 9(8): e1001298. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001298
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang, H., L. Dwyer-Lindgren, K. Lofgren, J. Rajaratnam, J. Marcus, A. Levin-Rector, C. Levitz, A. Lopez, and C. Murray. 2012. Age-specific and sex-specific mortality in 187 countries, 1970–2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010, The Lancet 380(9859): 2071–2094. 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61719-X
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wilmoth, J., N. Mizoguchi, M. Oestergaard, L. Say, C. Mathers, S. Zureick-Brown, M. Inoue, and D. Chou. 2012a. A new method for deriving global estimates of maternal mortality, Statistics, Politics, and Policy 3(2): 1–38. 10.1515/2151-7509.1038
   Google Scholar
• Wilmoth, J., S. Zureick, V. Canudas-Romo, M. Inoue, and C. Sawyer. 2012b. A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation, Population Studies 66(1): 1–28. 10.1080/00324728.2011.611411
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wood, S. 2003. Thin plate regression splines, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (B) 65(1): 95–114. 10.1111/1467-9868.00374
   Google Scholar
• Wood, S. 2006. Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R. London: Chapman and Hall.
   Google Scholar
• WHO (World Health Organization). 2013. Antiretroviral Therapy Coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa. Online: HIV/AIDS: Data and Statistics, World Health Organization. Available: http://www.who.int/hiv/data/art_coverage/en/ (accessed: 1 April 2014).
   Google Scholar
• Zaba, B., J. Whitworth, M. Marston, J. Nakiyingi, A. Ruberantwari, M. Urassa, R. Issingo, G. Mwaluko, S. Floyd, A. Nyondo, and A. Crampin. 2005. HIV and mortality of mothers and children: evidence from cohort studies in Uganda, Tanzania, and Malawi, Epidemiology 16(3): 275–280. 10.1097/01.ede.0000155507.47884.43
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar