Using GIS to Model and Forecast HIV/AIDS Rates in Africa, 1986–2010

Literature Cited

• Anselin , L. 2000 . The alchemy of statistics, or creating data where no data exist . Annals of the Association of American Geographers , 90 ( 3 ) : 587 – 92 .
   Google Scholar
• Bennett , R. J. , Haining , R. P. and Griffith , D. A. 1984 . The problem of missing data on spatial surface . Annals of the Association of American Geographers , 74 ( 1 ) : 138 – 56 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brown , T. , Grassly , N. C. , Garnett , G. and Stanecki , K. 2006 . Improving projections at the country level: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2005 . Sexually Transmitted Infections , 82 : iii34 – iii40 . (Supplement III)
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brunn , S. D. 1992 . Are we missing our “forests” and our “trees”? It's time for a census . Annals of the Association of American Geographers , 82 ( 1 ) : 1 – 2 .
   Google Scholar
• Cochrane , M. 2000 . The politics of AIDS surveillance . The Professional Geographer , 52 ( 2 ) : 205 – 18 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cromley , E. and McLafferty , S. 2002 . GIS and public health , New York : Guilford .
   Google Scholar
• David , M. 1977 . Geostatistical ore reserve estimation , Amsterdam : Elsevier .
   Google Scholar
• ESRI . 2005 . Arc GIS: What is ArcGIS? , Redlands, CA : Environmental Systems Research Institute .
   Google Scholar
• Fylkesness , K. , Ndhlovu , Z. , Kasumba , K. , Mubanga , M. R. and Sichone , M. 1998 . Studying dynamics of the HIV epidemic: Population-based data compared with sentinel surveillance in Zambia . AIDS , 12 : 1227 – 34 .
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Garbus , L. 2003 . HIV/AIDS in Malawi: Country AIDS policy analysis project , San Francisco : AIDS Policy Research Center, University of California . http://hivinsite.ucsf.edu/InSite?page=cr-ari(last accessed 22 January 2007)
   Google Scholar
• Gatrell , A. C. and Löytönen , M. 1998 . GIS and health , London : Taylor & Francis .
   Google Scholar
• Getis , A. 1991 . Spatial interaction and spatial autocorrelation: A cross-product approach . Environment and Planning A , 23 : 1269 – 77 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Getis , A. and Ord , J. K. 1992 . The analysis of spatial autocorrelation by use of distance statistics . Geographical Analysis , 24 : 189 – 206 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ghys , P. D. , Brown , T. , Grassly , N. C. , Garnett , G. , Tanecki , S. K. A. , Stover , J. and Walker , N. 2004 . The UNAIDS estimation and projection package: A software package to estimate and project national HIV epidemics . Sexually Transmitted Infections , 80 ( 1 ) : i5 – i9 .
   Google Scholar
• Glynn , J. R. , Buve , A. , Carael , M. , Musonda , R. M. , Kahindo , M. , Macauley , I. , Tembo , F. and Zekeng , L. 2001 . Factors influencing the difference in HIV prevalence between antenatal clinic and general population in sub-Saharan Africa . AIDS , 15 ( 13 ) : 1717 – 25 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Golub , A. , Gorr , W. L. and Gould , P. R. 1993 . Spatial diffusion of the HIV/AIDS epidemic: Modeling implications and case study of AIDS incidence in Ohio . Geographical Analysis , 25 ( 2 ) : 85 – 100 .
   Google Scholar
• Gould , P. 1969 . Spatial diffusion , Washington, DC : Commission on College Geography, Association of American Geographers .
   Google Scholar
• Gould , P. 1989 . Geographic dimensions of the AIDS epidemic . The Professional Geographer , 41 ( 1 ) : 71 – 78 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gould , P. 1993 . The slow plague: A geography of the AIDS pandemic , Cambridge, MA : Blackwell .
   Google Scholar
• Gould , P. and Wallace , R. 1994 . Spatial structures and scientific paradoxes in the AIDS pandemic . Geografiska Annaler , 76B ( 2 ) : 105 – 16 .
   Google Scholar
• Gregson , S. , Terceira , N. , Kakowa , M. , Mason , P. R. , Anderson , R. A. , Chandiwana , S. K. and Carael , M. 2002 . Study of bias in antenatal clinic HIV-1 surveillance data in a high contraceptive prevalence population in sub-Saharan Africa . AIDS , 16 ( 4 ) : 643 – 52 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hägerstrand , T. 1968 . Innovation diffusion as a spatial process , Chicago : University of Chicago Press .
   Google Scholar
• Haggett , P. 2001 . Geography: A global synthesis , Harlow, U.K. : Pearson Education .
   Google Scholar
• Haining , R. , Griffith , D. and Bennett , R. 1983 . Simulating two-dimensional autocorrelated surfaces . Geographical Analysis , 15 : 245 – 55 .
   Google Scholar
• Iliffe , J. 2006 . The African AIDS epidemic: A history , Athens : Ohio University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Isaaks , E. H. and Srivastava , R. M. 1989 . An introduction to applied geostatistics , New York : Oxford University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Kalipeni , E. , Craddock , S. , Oppong , J. R. and Ghosh , J. , eds. 2004 . HIV/AIDS in Africa: Beyond epidemiology , Oxford, U.K. : Blackwell .
   Google Scholar
• Krieger , N. 2003 . Place, space, and health: GIS and epidemiology . Epidemiology , 14 : 384 – 85 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lam , N. S. 1983 . Spatial interpolation methods: A review . American Cartographer , 10 ( 2 ) : 129 – 49 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lam , N. S. and Liu , K. 1996 . Use of space-filling curves in generating a national rural sampling frame for HIV/AIDS research . The Professional Geographer , 48 ( 3 ) : 321 – 32 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liverman , D. , Moran , E. F. , Rindfuss , R. R. and Stern , P. C. 1998 . People and pixels: Linking remote sensing and social science , Washington, DC : National Academy Press .
   Google Scholar
• Löytönen , M. 1991 . The spatial diffusion of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 in Finland . Annals of the Association of American Geographers , 81 ( 1 ) : 127 – 51 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Löytönen , M. 1994 . Growth models and the HIV epidemic in Finland . Social Science and Medicine , 38 ( 1 ) : 179 – 85 .
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Löytönen , M. and Arbona , S. I. 1996 . Forecasting the AIDS epidemic in Puerto Rico . Social Science and Medicine , 42 ( 7 ) : 997 – 1011 .
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Löytönen , M. and Maasilta , P. 1997 . Forecasting the HIV epidemic in Finland by using functional small area units . GeoJournal , 41 ( 3 ) : 215 – 23 .
   Google Scholar
• Mitasova , H. and Mitas , L. 1993 . Interpolation by regularized spline with tension: I. Theory and implementation . Mathematical Geology , 25 : 641 – 55 .
   Google Scholar
• Mitasova , H. , Mitas , L. , Brown , W. M. , Gerdes , D. P. , Kosinovsky , I. and Baker , T. 1995 . Modelling spatially and temporally distributed phenomena: New methods and tools for GRASS GIS . International Journal of Geographical Information Systems , 9 ( 4 ) : 433 – 46 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Newman , J. L. 1990 . On the transmission of AIDS in Africa . Annals of the Association of American Geographers , 80 ( 2 ) : 300 – 301 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Oppong , J. R. 1998 . A vulnerability interpretation of the geography of HIV/AIDS in Ghana, 1986–1995 . The Professional Geographer , 50 ( 4 ) : 437 – 48 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Orcmacro . 2005 . Data tables: HIV/AIDS survey indicators database http://www.measuredhs.com/hivdata/data/(last accessed 27 January 2006)
   Google Scholar
• Ruiz , M. O. , Tedesco , C. , McTighe1 , J. T. , Austin , C. and Kitron , U. 2004 . Environmental and social determinants of human risk during a West Nile virus outbreak in the greater Chicago area, 2002 . International Journal of Health Geographics , 3 ( 8 ) http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/pdf/1476-072X-3-8.pdf(last accessed 16 June 2005)
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Sabel , C. E. and Löytönen , M. 2004 . “ Clustering of disease ” . In GIS in public health practice , Edited by: Maheswaran , R. and Craglia , M. 51 – 70 . Boca Raton, FL : CRC Press .
   Google Scholar
• Shannon , G. W. and Pyle , G. F. 1989 . The origin and diffusion of AIDS: A view from medical geography . Annals of the Association of American Geographers , 79 ( 1 ) : 1 – 24 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shannon , G. W. , Pyle , G. F. and Bashshur , R. 1991 . The geography of AIDS: Origins and course of an epidemic , New York : Guilford .
   Google Scholar
• Smallman-Raynor , M. , Cliff , A. and Haggett , P. 1992 . International atlas of AIDS , London : Blackwell .
   Google Scholar
• Tedesco , C. E. 2004 . Understanding an outbreak: A multidimensional spatial analysis of the Chicago 2002 West Nile virus outbreak , MA thesis Department of Geography, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign .
   Google Scholar
• Tobler , W. 1970 . A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit area . Economic Geography , 46 ( 2 ) : 234 – 40 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• UNAIDS . 2004 . Report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic, July 2004 , Geneva, , Switzerland : UNAIDS . http://www.unaids.org/bangkok2004/report.html(last accessed 13 December 2005)
   Google Scholar
• UNAIDS . 2005 . AIDS epidemic update: December 2005 , Geneva, , Switzerland : UNAIDS . http://www.unaids.org/epi/2005/doc/EPIupdate2005_pdf_en/epi-update2005_en.pdf(last accessed 2 February 2005)
   Google Scholar
• UNAIDS . 2007 . Estimating national adult prevalence of HIV-1 in generalized epidemics—Manual , Geneva, , Switzerland : UNAIDS and WHO . http://data.unaids.org/pub/Manual/2007/epp_genepi_2007_en.pdf(last accessed 18 June 2007)
   Google Scholar
• UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections . 2002 . Improved methods and assumptions for estimation of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its impact: Recommendations of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections . AIDS , 16 : W1 – W14 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• U.S. Census Bureau . 2003 . HIV surveillance database , Washington, DC : International Programs Center, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau . http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/hivaidsd.html(last accessed 14 June 2005)
   Google Scholar
• Watts , S. J. , Okello , R. and Watts , S. 1990 . Medical geography and AIDS . Annals of the Association of American Geographers , 80 ( 2 ) : 301 – 4 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wood , W. B. 1988 . AIDS north and south: Diffusion patterns of a global epidemic and a research agenda for geographers . The Professional Geographer , 40 ( 3 ) : 266 – 79 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• World Health Organization . 2005 . WHO GIS and public health mapping http://www.who.int/csr/mapping/gisandphm/en/index.html(last accessed 13 June 2005)
   Google Scholar
• World Health Organization and UNAIDS . 2003 . Reconciling antenatal clinic-based surveillance and population-based survey estimates of HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa http://www.unaids.org/(last accessed 3 July 2005)
   Google Scholar
• Young , L. and Ansell , N. 2003 . Fluid households, complex families: The impacts of children's migration as a response to HIV/AIDS in southern Africa . The Professional Geographer , 55 ( 4 ) : 464 – 76 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar