New Zealand's experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations

References

• Aruoba, S.B. (2014). Term structures of inflation expectations and real interest rates: The effects of unconventional monetary policy. Staff Report 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Retrieved from https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr502.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Aruoba, S.B. (2016). Term structures of inflation expectations and real interest rates ( Working Paper No. 16-9). Philadelphia, PA: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
   Google Scholar
• Bai, J., & Ng, S. (2006). Confidence intervals for diffusion index forecasts and inference for factor-augmented regressions. Econometrica, 74, 1133–1150.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blanchard, O. J., Dell'Ariccia, G., & Mauro, P. (2010). Rethinking macroeconomic policy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42, 199–215.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bollard, A. (2002). The evolution of monetary policy in New Zealand. Speech delivered on 25 November 2002.
   Google Scholar
• Bollard, A. (2008). Flexibility and the limits of inflation targeting. Speech delivered on 30 July 2008.
   Google Scholar
• Bollard, A., & Karagedikli, O. (2006, 19–20 January). Inflation targeting in the New Zealand experience and some lessons. Paper prepared at the Inflation Targeting Performance and Challenges Conference by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Istanbul.
   Google Scholar
• Buiter, W. (2010). Don't raise the inflation target, remove the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates instead. Global Macro View, Citigroup Global Markets (March 5).
   Google Scholar
• Burgess, S., Fernandez-Corugedo, E., Groth, C., Harrison, R., Monti, F., Theodoridis, K., & Waldron, M. (2013). The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models ( Working Paper No. 471). Bank of England. Retrieved from http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2013/wp471.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Calomiris, C.W., & Haber, S.H. (2014). Fragile by design: The political origins of banking crisis and scarce Credit. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Diebold, F.X., & Rudebusch, G.D. (2013). Yield curve modelling and forecasting. Princeton University Press. Retrieved from http://press.princeton.edu/titles/9895.html
   Google Scholar
• Doan, T., Litterman, R.B., & Sims, C.A. (1983). Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 1202. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w1202
   Google Scholar
• Dorich, J., Johnston, M.K., Mendes, R.R., Murchison, S., & Zhang, Y. (2013) ToTEM II: An updated version of the Bank of Canada's Quarterly Projection Model (Technical report). Bank of Canada.
   Google Scholar
• Granville, B. (2013). Remembering inflation. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Gurkaynak, R. S., Sack, B., & Wright, J. (2007) The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, 2291–2304.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hall, V.B., & McDermott, C.J. (2009). The New Zealand business cycle. Econometric Theory, 25, 1050–1069.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hall, V.B., & McDermott, C.J. (2011). A quarterly post Second World War real GDP series for New Zealand. New Zealand Economic Papers, 45, 273–298.
   Google Scholar
• Hall, V.B., & McDermott, C.J. (2015). Recessions and recoveries in New Zealand's post-Second World War business cycles. SEF Working paper, 09/2015.
   Google Scholar
• Hargreaves, D. (2002). The implications of modified inflation targets for the behaviour of inflation. In The Policy Targets Agreement: Reserve Bank Briefing Note and Related Papers (pp. 57–59). Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Retrieved from http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Policy%20targets%20agreements/2002ptab-full.pdf?la=en
   Google Scholar
• Hargreaves, D., Kite, H., & Hodgetts, B. (2006). Modelling New Zealand inflation in a Phillips curve. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, 69, 23–37.
   Google Scholar
• Hunt, C. (2004). Interpreting clause 4(b) of the Policy Targets Agreement: Avoiding unnecessary instability in output, interest rates and the exchange rate. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, 67, 5–20.
   Google Scholar
• Jacob, P., & Munro, A. (2016). A macroprudential stable funding requirement and monetary policy in a small open economy. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper DP 2016/04.
   Google Scholar
• Justiniano, A., & Preston, B. (2010). Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open-economy model. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25, 93–128.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kam, T., Lees, K., & Liu, P. (2009). Uncovering the hit list for small inflation targeters: A Bayesian structural analysis. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41(4), 583–618.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kamber, G., McDonald, C., Sander, N., & Theodoridis, K. (2015). A structural forecasting model for New Zealand: NZSIM. Reserve Bank of New Zealand. DP2015/05.
   Google Scholar
• Karagedikli, O., & McDermott, C.J. (2016). Inflation expectations and the decline of inflation in New Zealand. Reserve Bank of New Zealand. DP2016/09.
   Google Scholar
• Kendall, R., & Ng, T. (2013). The 2012 Policy Targets Agreement: An evolution in flexible inflation targeting in New Zealand. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, 76, 3–12.
   Google Scholar
• Khan, M.S., & Senhadji, A.S. (2001). Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth. IMF Staff Papers, 48(1), 1–21.
   Google Scholar
• Lewis, M. (2015). Forecasting with macro-finance models: Applications to United States and New Zealand (Master of Commerce in Economics Thesis). Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
   Google Scholar
• Lewis, M. (2016). Inflation expectations curve: A tool for monitoring inflation expectations. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, AN2016/01.
   Google Scholar
• Orphanides, A., & Williams, J.C. (2005). Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy. In B.S. Bernanke & M. Woodford 32 (Eds.), The Inflation targeting debate. Chicago, IL: National Bureau of Economic Research.
   Google Scholar
• Razzak, W. (1997). Testing the rationality of the National Bank of New Zealand's survey data. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper, G97/5.
   Google Scholar
• Reifschneider, D., & Williams, J.C. (2000). Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 32, 936–966.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reinhart, C.M., & Rogoff, K.S. (2009). This time is different: Eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand. (2000). The evolution of the policy targets agreements. Retrieved from http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/independent-review-of-the-operation-of-monetary-policy-2/the-evolution-of-policy-targets-agreements
   Google Scholar
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand. (2007). Supporting Paper A1: Monetary policy framework and goals. In Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Select Committee Submission (pp. 24–35). Retrieved from http://rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Monetary%20policy/About%20monetary%20policy/3075587.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Richardson, A., & Williams, R. (2015). Estimating New Zealand's neutral interest rate. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, AN2015/05.
   Google Scholar
• Stock, J.S., & Watson, W.W. (2002). Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 147–162.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Waggoner, D.F., & Zha, T. (1999). Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models. Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, 639–651.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wright, J.H. (2009) Forecasting US inflation by Bayesian model averaging. Journal of Forecasting, 28, 131–144.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar