References
- 1999 . Financial Times , 30-31 January
- 1999 . Veja , 20 January : 42 – 43 .
- Wolf , M . 1998 . 'Supporting a house of cards' . Financial Times , 16 September on the choices to be faced by the G7 confronted with the attack on Brazil
- 1998 . Financial Times , 18 September on the continuing outflow in September
- 1998 . Veja , 21 October : 28 – 31 .
- 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 29 October commenting on the fact that US$830 million had left the country the previous day. To be fair, not all this outflow was because of lack of confidence. Some of it reflected a fall in the price of Brazilian debt, which led companies to buy back their outstanding foreign currency funds and Brazilians to invest in sovereign Brady bonds
- Economist Intelligence Unit, (EIU) . Country Report Brazil, fourth quarter 1998 15
- 1998 . Financial Times , 18 November
- 1998 . Veja , 7 October : 30 – 31 .
- Allen , Elizabeth . 'Human impacts on Brazilian Amazonia: the Roraima fires of 1997-8' . paper presented to the international conference on 'Human impacts on the environments of Brazilian Amazonia: does traditional ecological knowledge have a role in the future of the region?, at the Centre for Brazilian Studies . 5-6 June . Oxford University .
- 1998 . Veja , 7 October : 28 – 33 . The phrase is used in an illuminating report in
- Flynn , Peter . 1996 . 'Brazil: the politics of the Cruzado Plan' . Third Worm Quarterly , 8 (4) October : 1151 – 1194 . 1160 – 1165 . The notion of barons of the political elite is not new. It came up in interviews in late 1984 during the indirect election of Tancredo Neves; notes 36-40. For broader reflection, see the classic study by Raymundo Faoro, Os Donos do Poder: formacao do patronato politico brasileiro, Porto Alegre, 1958
- 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 4 October
- 1998 . Folha de Sao Paulo , 4 October
- 1998 . Veja , 7 October : 33
- 1989 . 'The politics of the Cruzado Plan'; Flynn, and 'Brazil and inflation: a threat to democracy' . Third World Quarterly , 11 (3) : 50 – 70 . Public attention given to the speech was striking, as was informed comment on it, partly because many of the details were already known, in keeping with Cardoso's pledge not to spring surprises on the people, as had been done by President Sarney in the Cruzado Plan of 1986 and by President Collor in his 'New Brazil' or 'Collor Plan' of March 1990. On these first two interventions
- 1998 . Diaro de Natal , 28 October : 6 The press of 28 October reported the speech in full. See, for example
- Folha de Sao Paulo, p. 6. The Folha also provides excellent reporting on the immediate reaction to the measures announced.
- 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 29 October : 15
- and Diario de Natal, p. 4, which gives a full account.
- EIU . 4th October 1998 . Country Report 4th October , 17 – 21 . There is a good account of the measures, but without detail, in
- 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 29 October
- Romero , Cristiano . 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 29 October : 17 On the notion of 'gradualism'see the article by; This is linked to earlier, half-hearted measures to tackle underlying problems, as in November 1997, when tax-raising measures produced results, but expenditure cuts were either rejected by Congress or not carried through. See EIU, Country Report, p. 15. The failure to carry through these earlier measures was part of the political cost accepted by the government in anticipation of the elections of 1998, a point not made in EIU and other reports
- 1998 . Diario de Natal , 29 October
- 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 29 October : 16 See also the generally sceptical article by Celso Pinto in the same newspaper
- Ibid, p. 19.
- 1998 . Diario de Natal , 29 October : 4 See also the interview with him in Istoe 21 October 1998, pp 36-37, expressing concern over the amount of attention paid to stabilisation in the Piano Real at the expense of growth, which should be of the order of 5, and of employment, especially since the country does not have social policies to ease unemployment. [Lafer Piva] wants a Ministry of Production
- 1998 . Veja , 4 November : 46 – 47 .
- 1998 . 'A crise e da reeleicao' . Jornal do Brasil , 28 October : 9 See the scathing article by
- Rossi , Carlos , Cantanhede , Eliane and Cony , Carlos Heitor . 1998 . Folha de Sao Paulo , 4 October : 2 See three sharply critical articles by; . See also the doubts raised by William Perry, ibid, p. 4
- 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 21 October : 19 and Jeffrey Sachs, the Harvard economist, criticising Cardoso's policies and urging the need for devaluation to avoid recession
- 1998 . Financial Times , 18 September : 4 tie argues that Brazil's currency is overvalued by 35-45, much higher than most estimates. Sachs had already warned Brazil of falling into the same trap as the Asian economies, whereby introducing austerity measures to boost credibility leads to deep recession and a further erosion of confidence
- 1998 . Financial Times , 16 September : 23 This was seen as one of three immediate tasks: to sustain growth and demand in the US and western Europe, to halt the spread of the emerging market contagion and to help restore damaged economies to renewed health. Brazil, with 45 of Latin American GDP was seen as a keystone, but perhaps a crumbling one, with its capital flight, its deficit of 7.8 and interest rates of over 50
- 1998 . Financial Times , 14 November Pedro Malan emphasised this in his comments on the IMF and international packages
- Ibid, 18 November 1998, p. 23;
- 'Last tango [should it not have been samba?] in Rio'. Also 'Greenspan's bubble', p. 24.
- 1998 . Veja , 4 November : 40 – 51 . There is an overwhelming consensus on this political factor in both the Brazilian and foreign press, as there was in interviews, at all levels, in Brazil as these measures and debates unfolded. There was also the keen sense that time was not on the government's side, that it was short and running out fast. Typical comment along these lines can be found in; See, for example, p. 47: 'O Relegio do Real', (The Real Clock); 'The government is racing against time to make its fiscal package work'.
- 1998 . Epoca , 12 October : 27
- Flynn , Peter . 1996 . 'Brazil: the politics of the Piano Real' . Third World Quarterly , 17 : 401 – 426 . For fuller discussion of these and other issues faced by the Piano Real, see
- Flynn , Peter . 1995 . 'Collor, corruption and crisis' . Journal of Latin American Studies , 25 : 351 – 371 . On these questions of the need for political reform and on political corruption
- Fleischer , David . January 1998 . Brazilian Political Parties and Party System, 1945-1997 , Working Paper Series January , George Washington University . For a recent, detailed account of Brazil's political parties and party system
- 1998 . Istoe , 21 October : 5 – 9 . See also the acute comment from Vice-President Marco Maciel, in a rare interview
- 1998 . Istoe , 11 November : 39 He says the financial crisis is international but, within Brazil, the main problem is political, that economic stability needs reform of the political system; examines current efforts to strengthen party loyalty, in contrast to 1995-98, when no fewer than 202 Federal Deputies and 22 Senators changed parties
- EIU . 20 October 1998 . Brazil Country Profile 1998-99 20 October , 8 There is a succinct listing of these constitutional reforms in; It describes those amendments already passed, including the 1998 administrative reform, and those still pending, namely, reform of the tax, social security and judicial systems
- 1998 . Financial Times , 14 November See Pedro Malan, quoted in; on the end of 'gradualism'
- Fleischer , D . November 1998 . Re-election Brazilian Style: The General Elections in 1998 , Working Paper Series, Institute of Brazilian Issues November , George Washington University . See also the valuable material in Fleischer's weekly reports, Brazil Focus; and Weekly Report, Brasilia. See, too, Epoca, 12, October 1998, p. 27, which produces graphics showing the composition of Congress, in the Chamber and in Senate, in October 1998 and as it would be in 1999
- 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 27 October See the judicious analysis of Walder de Goes; He says that the party composition in Congress is much as before, and that Cardoso knows how to work it. While about half the Chamber is composed of new members, about 80 of the president's supporters were returned. Research by de Goes' Brazilian Institute for Political Studies (IBEP), in Brasilia, also showed unexpectedly that, of deputies returned to the Chamber in 1998, 60 were those who had voted for reforms in 1997 and 1998, as distinct from only 34 of those who had voted against.
- 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 4 October : 14 See the interview in
- 1998 . 'Brazil. Why the left isn't winning' . The Economist , 19 November : 4 – 46 . with Fernando Lattman-Weltman, a researcher in the Centre for Research and Documentation on Contemporary History (CPDOC), Fundacao Getulio Vargas, author of a study of the press and President Fernando Collor. See also
- Sabino , Mario . 1998 . 'E agora, companheiro?' . Veja , 7 October : 34 – 36 . These are some of the arguments in an article by; just three days after the presidential elections. It is accompanied, cheek by jowl, (pp 36-37) by an interview with Tony Blair, praising the Piano Real and explaining the 'third way' of 'modernised social democracy' called the third way: 'because it deliberately goes beyond ["ultrapassa decididamente"] the old left, preoccupied with state control, high taxes and corporativist interests' and the new right. Earlier in the year, during a visit to Brazil, then Labour Minister Peter Mandelson criticised Brazil's traditional left, to the anger of PT leaders, to whom, they claimed. Mandelson had not even spoken
- 1998 . Epoca , 12 October : 36 – 37 . Ibid, p. 36, On the demise of the 'last icons of the nationalist left', such as Brizola and Arraes, see; which also bids farewell to some old caciques or political bosses, including Roberto Campos, now of the PPB, the former Minister of Planning (1964-67), distinguished ambassador and formidable intellectual on the political right
- 1998 . Epoca , 12 October : 28 – 29 . He says in this interview that his mistake and that of the PT was to believe that Cardoso, after election as president, would turn to the centre-left: 'H did exactly the opposite and remained on the far right … I do not bear a grudge, but he betrayed the principles of those who for so long strugged for democracy'
- 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 4 October : 6 Born in 1944 in the interior of Pernambuco, Lula moved with his family to Sao Paulo in 1952. He sold peanuts and tapioca in the streets, became a metalworker, joining the union in 1969, becoming first secretary in 1972 and president in 1975. He led strikes during the military regime in 1978 and 1979, was imprisoned and in 1980 helped to found the PT, together with trade unionists, politicians and intellectuals
- Fleischer . Re-election Brazilian Style 5
- 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 4 October : 6
- Fleischer . Re-election Brazilian Style 6
- Ibid, pp 6-7.
- Fleischer . Re-election Brazilian Style 9 – 10 .
- 1998 . Folha de Sao Paulo , 9 October There is good analysis of governors in the supplement of the
- 1998 . Epoca , 12 October : 32 – 35 .
- Fleischer . Re-election Brazilian Style 10 Covas beat Marta Suplicy into second place by only 74 436 votes
- 1998 . Epoca , 2 November : 33 Maluf's defeat was said to have left him with a debt of R$20 million. He also lost what may be his final presidential springboard for 2002
- 1998 . Epoca , 2 November : 36 – 37 . There is a good article on Durra in; He was a bank employee, the son of a rural worker from the Missoes region of Rio Grande do Sul, the fourth biggest state of the federation, with a diversified industrial and agrarian base, a population of 9 866 928 and a GDP of R$46.04 billion. This is the most important state the PT has governed. In 1994 the party won in the Federal Disrict and Espirito Santo and, in 1998, in Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul and Acre. This issue of Epoca also provides an excellent summary of the make-up of the new Chamber, the new Senate and the newly elected governors, and the party distribution across states, pp 34-35
- 1998 . Folha de Sao Paulo , 9 October Itamar was reported to have voted for Ciro Gomes in the presidential election
- 1998 . Istoe , 21 October : 61 just as former President Collor de Mello was reported to have voted for his old rival Lula
- 1998 . Folha de Sao Paulo , 4 October He became candidate for governor of Minas Gerais only after the PMDB decided not to put up a presidential candidate in opposition to Cardoso
- 1998 . Veja , 4 November : 51 He was commonly presented, at home and abroad, as provincial and narrow-minded, speaking only Portuguese, intellectually at home in the Minas Gerais city of Juiz da Fora, looking inward in that land-locked state, rather than sensitive to a wider, still less a globalised, world. In so far as he was known abroad, it was for a much publicised incident in a box during Rio's carnival, where, as president, he was shown cavorting with a young women, wearing, very evidently, less than the dancers. Itamar's political opponents deliberately cultivated this image which, too often unfortunately, was accepted uncritically by foreign journalists. There is an article explaining his political position in
- 1999 . Jornal do Brasil , 30 January : 3 The six opposition governors met in Brasilia within two days of the government's announcement of its fiscal programme. They demanded that their debts to the federal government should be negotiated en bloc and wanted to curb the application of the Lei Camata, which limited to 60 of state revenues what could be spent on salaries. They objected to an increase in the Fiscal Stabilization Fund (FEF), by which the federal government wanted to hold back not 20 but 40 of money owed to states under the constitution of 1988. They offered, even at this early stage, rational criticism and alternative proposals. See also
- 1998 . Veja , 4 November : 49
- 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 30 October
- Villas-Boas Correa 'A pressa anda devagar' ('Haste is made slowly'), ibid, p. 9. See also the criticism of a leading left wing economist, Maria da Conceicao Tavares, that it is wrong to single out social welfare as the main cause of the deficit. Ibid.
- 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 4 October the day of the elections. A long article analyses the problems facing Cardoso. They include economic issues such as the deficit of 8 and others already noted, but the article emphasises problems of poverty and social issues still to be tackled. See also
- 1998 . Folha de Sao Paulo , 4 October noting that the exchange rates will be the biggest challenge now, linked to the deficit, interest rates, unemployment, recession and capital flight
- 1998 . Veja , 4 November
- 1998 . Epoca , 2 November : 22 – 23 . provides clear diagrams, showing the relation between state incomes and expenditure and their relation to numbers of state employees
- 1998 . Veja , 4 November : 44 – 45 . This report includes a clear summary of the new income to be generated by the Programme of Fiscal Stability, namely R$15.8 billion, under four main headings, and from spending cuts of R$12.2 billion, again set out under four main headings. It also repons on complaints from the private sector, demanding changes in the exchange rate and cuts in interest rates, ibid, p. 26
- 1998 . 'As licoes das urnas' . Epoca , 19 October : 29 – 30 . Wanderley Guilherme dos Santos; He provides close analysis of the electorate and election results, noting that Cardoso did less well in 1998 than in 1994. In terms of the percentage of votes from the total electorate (not of valid votes), Cardoso, with 33.8, performed less well than former presidents (Collor, 42.7, Quadros, 36.3 and Dutra, 43.5). The electorate, he says, was mean with Cardoso, although the opposition deserves only 'modest congratulations'
- Flynn . “ 'Collor, corruption and crisis' ” . 353 – 355 . 28 Dos Santos gives the relevant breakdown of the 1998 electorate, 'As licoes das urnas'
- 1998 . 'O novo contex to politico' . Jornal do Brasil , 27 October : 9 These points are very well made by Walder de Goes, president of IBEP in Brasilia
- Martins , Franklin . 1998 . Epoca , 19 October : 33 On governors likely to cause trouble for Cardoso
- Fleischer . Re-election Brazilian Style 14 Another source of possible delay was the fact that Congressmen received twice their usual daily expenses allowance for attending special sessions
- Martins , Franklin . 1998 . Epoca , 2 November : 29
- Correa , Villas-Boas . 1998 . Jornal do Brasil , 30 October : 68 'It is a safe bet that Congress will not vote the package in November. Much will remain for the new Congress to be installed on 1 February.'
- Fleischer . 1998 . Brazil Focus , 4 December : 4 – 5 . The CPMF in 1997 brought in R$4.27 billion. In 1998, up to 31 August, it brought in R$5.27 billion. The government now wanted Congress to extend it beyond its cut-off date of 22 January 1999, expecting that in 1999 it would bring in R$8.7 billion for a further three years
- 1997 . Brazil Focus , 19 September : 5 The previous report contains more details on the proposed social security reforms (p 4)
- 1998 . Brazil Focus , 27 November : 3 The original reform plans were put to Congress in 1995 and a report accepted by the then Minister of Planning, Jose Serra, himself a specialist on fiscal reform. His successor then stifled debate
- Fleischer . 1998 . Brazil Focus , 12 September : 6
- 1998 . Brazil Focus , 4 December : 6 D Fleischer to Peter Flynn, e mail, 5 Decembe 1998. See also
- 1998 . Financial Times , 4 December expressing doubt whether the government has 'the clout to implement austerity measures'. If not, 'capital flight will resume.., force up interest rates, widen the deficit and force the real into 'free fall' See also
- 1998 . Guardian , 4 December It notes that the defeat came only one hour before the visiting IMF team announced its approval of the first tranche of its US$41.5 billion rescue programme. David Fleischer repons that the IMF meeting was extended by three hours, to decide whether it should go ahead with the agreement or not. Eventually, it decided it would
- 99 . Brazil Focus , 4 January : 9
- 1998 . Financial Times , 5 December
- Ibid, 21 December 1998, FT, Survey on Brazil, p. 9. This contains discussion of the political reforms being proposed by Sergio Machado, leader of the PSDB in the Senate. These include an end to the 'open list' system, which, apart from Brazil, is only used in Finland, in exchange for a 'closed list system', combining proportional and local representation. Another report noted the division within the government between a development wing, less obsessed with inflation and represented in part by Jose Serra, former Minister of Finance, now of Health, and the 'economic team' led by Pedro Malan and Gustavo Franco, stoutly defending the stabilisation plan and the fight against inflation.
- 1998 . Financial Times , 8 December
- ibid, 16 December 1998.
- Ibid, 18 December 1998. It quotes a New York investment banker saying: 'interest rates have to come down, otherwise the fiscal plan is not viable', but also notes that a larger interest rate cut now would threaten the value of the real, 'a cornerstone of the government's free market economic policies'.
- Ibid, 24 December 1998.
- 1998 . Estado de Sao Paulo , 16 December Ibid, 5 January 99. Cardoso was also trying, on the political front, to find support on the left for his fiscal measures. On 14 December he had invited Lula to speak to him personally, accompanied by Cristovam Buarque, governor of the Federal District. Despite maintaining his opposition to government policies, including the IMF package, Lula welcomed the opportunity to discuss issues in the national interest on which agreement might be found. The meeting provoked sharp criticism from other members of Lula's left-wing alliance, including Brizola
- The FT/World Index showed that in 1998, as in 1997, the losers were mainly in the emerging markets, with the bottom two places for 1998 being held by Mexico, down 37, followed by Brazil, at the bottom, down 44.26. This clearly showed that, despite Cardoso's re-election and the IMF rescue package, investors were still concerned about Brazil. Ibid, 4 January 1999.
- 1999 . 'Outcast Brazil bites the bullet' . 6 January : 42 Ibid; The article, by John Barham, says that Brazil, 'once the darling of the international investment community, is now a virtual outcast.., much depends on intangible factors, principally the willingness of an undisciplined Congress to vote through tax raising and cost-cutting measures that will enable the government to meet IMF targets.' The overriding concern is 'the solidity of… the real. Fears of a devaluation beyond the planned 7.5-8 annual depreciation would spark another sell-off of Brazilian equities.' The article also wisely notes the difficulty of political prediction
- 1999 . Veja , 13 January : 37 gives details of the large discounts and low interest rates which the federal government had provided, giving examples of 10 states. Rates varied from 6 to 7.5
- 1998 . Brazil Watch , 23 November : 6 – 7 . This succinct discussion of the gubernatorial elections provides a full list of the new governors and a breakdown of parties. It is followed (pp 8-9) by discussion of 'A tilt to the left in 20027'. See also
- 1999 . Istod , 6 January : 28 – 29 .
- 1999 . Financial Times , 12 January
- de Goes , Walder . 6 November 1999 . “ 'This dispute could potentially have serious repercussions in Congress for the government' ” . 6 November , Ibid; This partly stemmed from the influence which governors had on congressmen from their states
- 1999 . The Economist , 16 January : 57 A pungent profile of Itamar Franco says he may yet have left his mark on Brazilian history, much as roosting pigeons leave theirs on the Planalto (the president's palace) in Brasilia. See also
- 1999 . Financial Times , 6 January for a more decorous report
- 1999 . Veja , 13 January : 36 – 39 .
- 1999 . Veja , 6 January : 34 – 35 . showing Cardoso's support from 1995-98, which remained high, from 44 in February 1995 to a high of 56 in March 1997, down to 32 in May 1998, but up again by December 1998 to 40, from which later it dropped to 30
- 1999 . Veja , 6 January : 7 reports on the buying spree leading up to Christmas 1998, but an interview with George Soros discusses the vulnerability of the international financial system. Brazil, says Soros, is in the eye of the hurricane. It is trying to manage the crisis, but may not have the necessary support in Congress to avoid the collapse of its economic programme: 'This, today, is the international financial community's greatest worry' (p 10). See also
- 1998 . Brazil Watch , 21 December : 1 on capital flight, especially after 11 December when US$650 million left the country, followed by $337 million the next business day. Banks had expected a net outflow of $3 billion to $5 billion in December to meet debt payments but 'much of the exodus was through the floating rate, a sure sign of capital flight'
- 1999 . Brazil Watch , 11 January : 3 reporting that nearly US$5.2 billion left the country in December
- 1998 . Brazil Watch , 21 December : 10 – 11 . Among those urging the need for devaluation were Jeffrey Sachs and, in Brazil, Delfim Netto; Government spokespeople were still talking only of widening the band in which the currency might trade, perhaps as a first step towards a floating rate
- 1998 . Jornal do Brazil , 13 January
- 1998 . Veja , 20 October : 45 – 46 . Ibid. This also has the full text of the Sao Luiz letter. See also; on growing support for Itamar Franco. It also quotes ex-finance Minister Delfim Netto, saying that the governors met in Sao Luiz to condemn Itamar, but all want the same as he does.
- 1999 . Pres Release, Brazilian Embassy, London , 14 January
- 1999 . Jornal do Brasil , 14 January
- 1999 . 'The gamble over Brazil has failed' . Financial Times , 14 January
- 1999 . The Economist , 16 January said Brazil was forced to devalue because investors had lost confidence in the government's ability to tackle the country's main problem: fiscal profligacy. 'In the past two months the government has proved politically weak'
- 1999 . 'Tempo de reflexao' ('Time for reflection') . Jornal do Brasil , 14 January
- 1999 . Veja , 20 January : 7 'The miopia which leads to disaster'; on the persistent refusal of the political class to recognise and accept what needed to be done
- 1999 . Jornal do Brasil , 14 January
- 1999 . Financial Times , 15 January
- Ibid, 18 January 1999.
- Ibid, 15 January 1999. Lula compared Cardoso with Mikhail Gorbachev, 'who in only seven years managed to destroy the second biggest power in the world'. Cardoso risks raining the world's eighth largest economy.
- Ibid. See the leader 'Urgencia Urgentissima', calling for the most urgent political action to restore international credibility.
- 1999 . Guardian , 16 January 'Brazil was placed in a position almost guaranteed to cause a crisis'. Given the fact that more than a trillion dollars a day sloshes around the global markets, Brazil's line of credit from the IMF was like 'fighting a panzer with a peashooter'. See also the severe criticism of Jeffrey Sachs, 'Going for broke', Ibid, p. 21
- 1999 . Financial Times , 18 January
- 1999 . Financial Times , 19 January on Argentina's and Chile's declared lack of nerves
- 1999 . 'Who is next in the chain?' . 18 January Ibid
- 1999 . 'Real pain' . Sunday Times , 17 January
- 1999 . Financial Times , 18 January and 20 January 1999
- 1999 . 'Dollarise or die' . Financial Times , 19 January
- 1999 . Financial Times , 22 January on Argentina and a leader
- 1999 . 'Dollarisation' , 25 January
- 1999 . Jornal do Brasil , 16 January
- 1999 . Jornal do Brasil , 16 January 17 January 1999, for the views of governors of smaller states, more dependent on the federal government, and an important interview with a long-experienced politician, Jose Aparecido de Oliveira
- 1999 . Jornal do Brasil , 17 January See the powerful leader in 'Geometria variavel'. It is a strong attack on Cardoso and his 'fatal mistake' in his handling of Congress and, again, his failure to carry through urgently needed political reforms by concentrating on re-election. It refers to 'political demobilisation' and is also, yet again, stingingly critical of Congress
- 1999 . Financial Times , 18 January Ibid. See also 19 January 1999
- 1999 . Guardian , 21 January Ibid, 21 January 1999. The group included George Soros, Jon Corzine, co-chairman of Goldman Sachs and David Komansky, chief executive of Merrill Lynch. See also; quoting Malan: 'We are not going to have any domestic debt restructuring … It is up to the markets to decide … the appropriate exchange rate. We do not have intervention points, virtual bands, national bonds. And we do not have a hidden agenda.'
- 1999 . Financial Times , 22 January
- 1999 . Guardian , 22 January which reports George Soros as criticising the rise in interest rates, made, he believed, on the 'not good advice' of the IMF. See also; and the open letter from the Brazilian Ambassador in London, Rubens Antonio Barboso, reflecting on the British experience of 1992.
- Kaletsky , Anatole . 1999 . 'Brazil is not being offered the correct medicine'' . The Times , 26 January
- Sachs , Jeffrey . 1999 . 'self-inflicted wounds' . Financial Times , 21 January He refers to the IMF's (and the USA's and Brazil's) 'fatuous $41 billion stabilisation programme, predicated on a continuation of the pegged exchange rate' and offers four reasons for the IMF'S damaging policies. These include that 'as an anti-inflation zealot, the IMF coolly accepts deep recession'. Sachs argues that Cardoso need not have deferred devaluation for electoral reasons: 'Ironically, he would most likely have won with a devaluation in 1996, or in late 1997, or even in late 1998. Now he faces a financial disaster of his own contrivance'
- 1999 . The Economist , 23 January : 18
- Luce , Edward . 1999 . 'Brazil's burning fuse' . Financial Times , 25 January On capital flight and the wider issue of the international impact of the Brazilian crisis; He argues that the impact of Brazil's devaluation has been less dramatic than might have been expected, in contrast to that of the Russian rouble in August 1998 or the Thai baht in July 1997. But, he argues, this is because Brazil's devaluation had been largely expected, so that the global investment industry had already minimised its exposure to emerging market securities. The huge capital outflow before devaluation was more expatriation of funds by domestic investors than a repatriation of capital by foreign investors, in contrast to Asia and Russia. He then argues that the economic, rather than the financial, impact of Brazil's crisis may be profound
- 1999 . Financial Times and Guardian , 23 January
- 1999 . Financial Times , 27 January See also the article on Argentina, President Menem and the dollar
- 1999 . Financial Times , 30 and 31 January
- Ibid, 26 January 1999.
- Ibid, 27 January 1999.
- Ibid, 28 January 1999.
- 1999 . The Economist , 30 January : 85 Ibid, 29 January 1999. See also; It says that, even with the real hovering around 1.80-2.00 to the dollar compared with 1.21 on 12 January, markets are not convinced that it has stopped falling. It notes the loss of US$45 billion since last August, with reserves now at about US$35 billion, including US$9 billion from the IMF-led package. The Central Bank has struggled to sell its bonds in its domestic markets. Confidence in Brazilian policy, it says, has been battered
- 1999 . Financial Times , 28 January
- Ibid, 30 and 31 January 1999, which reports that, on the previous day in the Sao Paulo stock market, 'Speculation was rife that the government could call Monday a bank holiday and release new economic measures'.
- 1999 . 'Real's slide halted as panic abates' . Financial Times , 2 February
- Ibid. A leader argues that Brazil now needs a new plan, and soon. This should include fiscal policy, to 'help rebuild trust'. It suggests, as one target, the 'unwieldy and unfair state pension system, together with privatisation and a new, credible anti-inflationary policy'. Brazil must avoid monetisation to meet its short-term domestic debt obligations and needs a new monetary anchor. This may be a currency board or a transparent inflation target, 'with the Central Bank charged with its delivery … whichever the government chooses, there is no time to waste'.
- 1999 . Jornal do Brasil , 3 February
- Ibid.
- Ibid.
- 'Um operador que saiba enfrentar as feras do mercado', Ibid. Francisco Lopes, aged 52, son of a former Finance Minister, was one of the architects of the Cruzado Plan of 1986 (and of Argentina's Plano Austral). He left the Cruzado Plan group of economists when President Sarney refused for electoral reasons to modify the Cruzado Plan. (See the profile here).
- 1999 . Financial Times , 3 February Ibid, He was said, at one time, to have managed a fund which took bets on macroeconomic changes, such as currency devaluations in emerging markets
- 1999 . The Times , 3 February 'Brazil picks hedge-fund poacher as economic gamekeeper'. See also too; which notes how the government is emphasising that Fraga has now severed his links with Soros.
- 1999 . Jornal do Brasil , 3 February Fraga has family connections in Bahia with Magalhaes, who invited him to return to Brazil, then to join the economic team
- 1999 . Jornal do Brasil , 14 January See p. 302 and note 108, also note 122, quoting
- 1999 . Jornal do Brasil , 3 February See the sympathetic comment on both Gustavo Franco and Francisco Lopes after their dismissal from the Central Bank and the appointment of Arminio Fraga; The article says that men of ability and loyal service are being used as scapegoats. They did make mistakes, perhaps the biggest being that for so long they sustained a stabilisation model which depended on a fiscal adjustment that was never carried through because of the government's own lack of political will. They always knew of the government's negligence on fiscal reform, yet stayed at their posts
- Flynn . “ 'Collor, corruption and crisis' ” . 358 Sarney cynically dismantled the Cruzado Plan while the votes of the election of 15 November 1986 were still being counted
- 1999 . Jornal do Brasil , 3 February Francisco Lopes, at that time, left Sarney's economic team in protest
- 1999 . Brazil Focus , 23 and 29 January
- Flynn , Peter . 1978 . Brazil: A Political Analysis , 226 – 230 . London : Berm . The proposal for a parliamentary system was debated in the Constituent Assembly of 1987 to 1988. It was rejected, in part because of the pressure and financial inducements exercised on the Centrao, a broad centre group of deputies, by President Sarney. In 1961 a parliamentary system was introduced, but only as part of the political pact to allow Goulart to succeed Quadros and as a device by the right to try to control Goulart. It was ended by a plebiscite vote
- 1998 . Istoe , 2 December : 26 Magalhaes may form a new right-wing bloc, or even a new party, in collaboration with his former political enemy Paulo Maluf, former governor and mayor of Sao Paulo. It is also said that he may offer himself as presidential candidate in place of his son, Eduardo, a Congressman who died in 1998. On the influence which Magalhaes has over President Cardoso, see
- 1999 . The Economist , 23 January has a short, unsympathetic account of the governors' meeting. Its own rhetoric is not much less elated than theirs
- 1999 . Brazil Focus , 23 and 29 January : 6 – 7 . Some states, such as Pernambuco, are following the example of Bahia in 1998, using part of the proceeds from the sale of state assets, such as their electricity companies, to capitalise a pension fund for state employees, who must make greater personal contributions
- 1999 . Financial Times , 4 February has an article on Governor Olivio Dutra and his problems in Rio Grande do Sul with the federal government. It lists 12 states, showing their debt to the federal government and the percentage of revenues spent on payroll. It quotes the president of the Rio Grande do Sul Commercial Association: 'Renegotiation is not a problem. Brazil is renegotiating with the IMF'
- Flynn , Peter . 1998 . “ 'Cardoso, Fernando Henrique' ” . In Oxford Dictionary of Political Biography , Edited by: Kavanagh , D . Oxford : Oxford University Press . On Cardoso's military predecessors, including his father, General Leonidas Fernandes Cardoso, and his grandfather and great-uncle, also generals
- Beloch , I and de Abreu , A Alves . 1984 . Dicionario Historico Biografico Brasileiro 1930-1983 Rio de Janeiro
- 1999 . Brasil Focus , 23 and 29 January
- Ibid, 30 January 1999.
- 96 . Veja , 11 September and 18 December 96
- Betinho founded the Brazilian Institute of Social and Economic Analysis, a research centre and a motor for social change. (lie cleverly coined the name, before the formal return to democracy, to incorporate the idea of 'base groups', one of the key units derived from Liberation Theology.) In a Third World Quarterly special issue on 'the Politics of Exile', Vol 9 No 1, January 1987, he ended his contribution with the reflection: 'the political cycle of exile is reaching its end. This… does not mean that the nation has been reconciled with its people nor that the state has been re-appropriated by civil society. If exile has come to an end, its fundamental causes may still be said to persist' (p 211). For Betinho, many Brazilians were exiles in their own country.
- 1998 . Folha de Sao Paulo , 26 September