System dynamics modelling and the use of evidence to inform policymaking

References

• Achterkamp, M. C., and J. F. J. Vos. 2007. “Critically Identifying Stakeholders: Evaluating Boundary Critique as a Vehicle for Stakeholder Identification.” Systems Research and Behavioral Science 24 (1): 3–14. doi:10.1002/sres.760.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Andersen, D., E. Rich, and R. Macdonald. 2020. “System Dynamics Applications to Public Policy.” In: System Dynamics. Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science Series. New York, NY: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Atun, R. A., R. M. Lebcir, M. McKee, J. Habicht, and R. Coker. 2007. “Impact of Joined-up HIV Harm Reduction and Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis Control Programmes in Estonia: System Dynamics Simulation Model.” Health Policy 81 (2–3): 207–217. doi:10.1016/j.healthpol.2006.05.021.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bacchi, C. 2009. Analysing Policy: What’s the Problem Represented to Be? NSW: Pearson.
   Google Scholar
• Bacchi, C. 2016. “Problematizations in Health Policy: Questioning How ‘Problems’ are Constituted in Policies.” Sage Open April-June(1–16), doi:10.1177/2158244016653986.
   Google Scholar
• Beland, D. 2005. “Ideas and Social Policy: An Institutionalist Perspective.” Social Policy and Administration 39 (1): 1–18. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9515.2005.00421.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bérard, C. 2010. “Group Model Building Using System Dynamics: An Analysis of Methodological Frameworks.” Accessed 15 January 2015. http://basepub.dauphine.fr/handle/123456789/5035.
   Google Scholar
• Bianchi, C., and D. W. Williams. 2015. “Applying System Dynamics Modeling to Foster a Cause-and-Effect Perspective in Dealing with Behavioral Distortions Associated with a City’s Performance Measurement Programs.” Public Performance & Management Review 38 (3): 395–425. doi:10.1080/15309576.2015.1006471.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bicket, M. 2019. Complexity Evaluation Framework. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. http://sciencesearch.defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=14675_ComplexityEvaluationFramework.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Biesta, G. 2007. “Why ‘What Works’ Won’t Work: Evidence-Based Practice and the Democratic Deficit in Educational Research.” Educational Theory 57 (1): 1–22.
   Google Scholar
• Botterill, L. C., and A. Hindmoor. 2012. “Turtles All the Way Down: Bounded Rationality in an Evidence-Based Age.” Policy Studies 33 (5): 367–379. doi:10.1080/01442872.2011.626315.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bracken, L., and E. Oughton. 2013. “Making Sense of Policy Implementation: The Construction and Uses of Expertise and Evidence in Managing Freshwater Environments.” Environmental Science & Policy 30: 10–18.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brandon, M., P. Sidebotham, P. Belderson, et al. 2020. “Complexity and Challenge: A Triennial Analysis of SCRs 2014-2017 Final Report.” UK Government, Department of Education.
   Google Scholar
• Cairney, P. 2016. The Politics of Evidence Based Policy. London: Palgrave Pivot.
   Google Scholar
• Cairney, P., K. Oliver, and A. Wellstead. 2016. “To Bridge the Divide Between Evidence and Policy: Reduce Ambiguity as Much as Uncertainty.” Public Administration Review 76 (3): 399–402. doi:10.1111/puar.12555.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carey, G., E. Malbon, N. Carey, et al. 2015. “Systems Science and Systems Thinking for Public Health: A Systematic Review.” British Medical Journal. Accessed 11 July 2016. http://www.academia.edu/download/40830972/BMJ.pdf.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chang, A. Y., O. Ogbuoji, R. Atun, et al. 2017. “Dynamic Modeling Approaches to Characterize the Functioning of Health Systems: A Systematic Review of the Literature.” Social Science & Medicine 194: 160–167. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2017.09.005.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Checkland, P. 1995. “Model Validation in Soft Systems Practice.” Systems Research 12 (1): 47–54. doi:10.1002/sres.3850120108.
   Google Scholar
• Chen, H., Y.-C. Chang, and K.-C. Chen. 2014. “Integrated Wetland Management: An Analysis with Group Model Building Based on System Dynamics Model.” Journal of Environmental Management 146: 309–319.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cohen, M. D., J. G. March, and J. P. Olsen. 1972. “A Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice.” Administrative Science Quarterly 17 (1): 1. doi:10.2307/2392088.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coyle, G. 2000. “Qualitative and Quantitative Modelling in System Dynamics: Some Research Questions.” System Dynamics Review 16 (3): 225–244.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cozzens, S., E. Woodhouse, et al. 1995. “Science, Government, and the Politics of Knowledge.” In Handbook of Science and Technology Studies, edited by S. Jasanoff, G. Markle, and J. Peterson, 533–553. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
   Google Scholar
• Dahler-Larson, P. 2011. “Organizing Knowledge: Evidence and the Construction of Evaluative Information Systems.” In From Studies to Streams: Managing Evaluative Systems, edited by R. Rist, and N. Stame, 65–80. New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.
   Google Scholar
• Dangerfield, B. C., Y. Fang, and C. A. Roberts. 2001. “Model-based Scenarios for the Epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: The Consequences of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy.” System Dynamics Review 17 (2): 119–150. doi:10.1002/sdr.211.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• de Gooyert, V., and A. Größler. 2018. “On the Differences Between Theoretical and Applied System Dynamics Modeling.” System Dynamics Review 34 (4): 575–583. doi:10.1002/sdr.1617.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Eker, S., N. Zimmermann, S. Carnohan, et al. 2018. “Participatory System Dynamics Modelling for Housing, Energy and Wellbeing Interactions.” Building Research & Information 46 (7): 738–754. doi:10.1080/09613218.2017.1362919.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Elvbakken, K. T., and H. F. Hansen. 2019. “Evidence Producing Organizations: Organizational Translation of Travelling Evaluation Ideas.” Evaluation 25 (3): 261–276.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fischer, F. 1995. Evaluating Public Policy. Chicago, IL: Nelson Hall.
   Google Scholar
• Fleck, L. 1979 [1935]. Genesis and Development of a Scientific Fact. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
   Google Scholar
• Flitcroft, K., J. Gillespie, et al. 2011. “Getting Evidence Into Policy: The Need for Deliberative Strategies?” Social Science & Medicine 72 (7): 1039–1046.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fontoura, W. B., G de LD Chaves, and G. M. Ribeiro. 2019. “The Brazilian Urban Mobility Policy: The Impact in São Paulo Transport System Using System Dynamics.” Transport Policy 73: 51–61. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.09.014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Forrester, J. 1969. Urban Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
   Google Scholar
• Forrester, J. W. 1980. “Information Sources for Modeling the National Economy.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 75 (371): 555–566. doi:10.1080/01621459.1980.10477508.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Forrester, J. W. 2007. “System Dynamics – the Next Fifty Years.” System Dynamics Review 23 (2–3): 359–370. doi:10.1002/sdr.381.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gibson, B., V. Lin, and B. Gibson. 2003. “Beyond “Two Communities”. In: Evidence-Based Health Policy: Problems and Possibilities, 18–30. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Goertz, G. 2006. “Introduction to the Special Issue ‘Causal Complexity and Qualitative Methods’.” Political Analysis 14 (3): 223–226. doi:10.1093/pan/mpj016.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Größler, A. 2004. “A Content and Process View on Bounded Rationality in System Dynamics.” Systems Research and Behavioral Science 21 (4): 319–330. doi:10.1002/sres.646.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haghshenas, H., M. Vaziri, and A. Gholamialam. 2015. “Evaluation of Sustainable Policy in Urban Transportation Using System Dynamics and World Cities Data: A Case Study in Isfahan.” Cities 45: 104–115. doi:10.1016/j.cities.2014.11.003.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Head, B. W. 2010. “Reconsidering Evidence-Based Policy: Key Issues and Challenges.” Policy and Society 29 (2): 77–94. doi:10.1016/j.polsoc.2010.03.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Homer, J., and R. Oliva. 2001. “Maps and Models in System Dynamics: A Response to Coyle.” System Dynamics Review 17 (4): 347–355. doi:10.1002/sdr.224.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hoppe, R. 2010. “From ‘Knowledge Use’ Towards ‘Boundary Work’: Sketch of an Emerging New Agenda for Inquiry Into Science-Policy Interaction.” In Knowledge Democracy. Consequences for Science, Politics and Media, edited by R. In't Veld, 169–186. Heidelberg: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Hossain, M. S., J. Ramirez, S. Szabo, et al. 2020. “Participatory Modelling for Conceptualizing Social-Ecological System Dynamics in the Bangladesh Delta.” Regional Environmental Change 20 (1): 28. doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01599-5.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jaen, S., and I. Dyner. 2008. “Criminal Cycles in the Illegal Drug Industry: A System Dynamics Approach Applied to Colombia.” In: 2008 Winter Simulation Conference, Miami, FL, . 1429–1436. IEEE. doi:10.1109/WSC.2008.4736220.
   Google Scholar
• Jarynowski, A., M. Wojta-Kempa, D. Platek, et al. 2020. “Attempt to Understand Public Health Relevant Social Dimensions of COVID-19 Outbreak in Poland.” Society Register 4 (3): 7–44. doi:10.14746/sr.2020.4.3.01.
   Google Scholar
• Jasanoff, S. S. 1987. “Contested Boundaries in Policy-Relevant Science.” Social Studies of Science 17 (2): 195–230. doi:10.1177/030631287017002001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jasanoff, S. 2004. States of Knowledge: The Co-production of Science and the Social Order. London: Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Karavezyris, V., K.-P. Timpe, and R. Marzi. 2002. “Application of System Dynamics and Fuzzy Logic to Forecasting of Municipal Solid Waste.” Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 60 (3–5): 149–158. doi:10.1016/S0378-4754(02)00010-1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kingdon, J. 1995. Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies. 2nd ed. New York: Harper Collins.
   Google Scholar
• Kuchenmüller, T., L. Boeira, et al. 2022. “Domains and Processes for Institutionalizing Evidence-Informed Health Policy-Making: A Critical Interpretive Synthesis.” Health Research Policy and Systems 20: 27. doi:10.1186/s12961-022-00820-7
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lancaster, K. 2014. “Social Construction and the Evidence-Based Drug Policy Endeavour.” International Journal of Drug Policy 25 (5): 948–951.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lebcir, R. M., R. A. Atun, and R. J. Coker. 2010. “System Dynamic Simulation of Treatment Policies to Address Colliding Epidemics of Tuberculosis, Drug Resistant Tuberculosis and Injecting Drug Users Driven HIV in Russia.” Journal of the Operational Research Society 61 (8): 1238–1248. doi:10.1057/jors.2009.90.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lindblom, C. E. 1959. “The Science of ‘Muddling Through’.” Public Administration Review 19 (2): 79–88.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liu, H., G. Benoit, T. Liu, et al. 2015. “An Integrated System Dynamics Model Developed for Managing Lake Water Quality at the Watershed Scale.” Journal of Environmental Management 155: 11–23. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.02.046.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Luna-Reyes, L. F., and D. L. Andersen. 2003. “Collecting and Analyzing Qualitative Data for System Dynamics: Methods and Models.” System Dynamics Review 19 (4): 271–296. doi:10.1002/sdr.280.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• MacGregor, S., and A. Cooper. 2020. “Blending Research, Journalism, and Community Expertise: A Case Study of Coproduction in Research Communication.” Science Communication 42 (3): 340–368.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Majone, G. 1989. Evidence, Argument, and Persuasion in the Policy Process. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Maluleke, G., and L. Pretorius. 2013. “A Systems Thinking Approach to Sustainable Manganese Mining: A Case for System Dynamics Modelling.” In: 2013 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Technology (ICIT). Cape Town, 1450–1455. IEEE. doi:10.1109/ICIT.2013.6505885. February 2013
   Google Scholar
• Martin, R., and M. Schlüter. 2015. “Combining System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling to Analyze Social-Ecological Interactions – an Example from Modeling Restoration of a Shallow Lake.” Frontiers in Environmental Science 3. doi:10.3389/fenvs.2015.00066.
   Google Scholar
• McLucas, A. C., and S. Elsawah. 2020. “System Dynamics Modeling to Inform Defense Strategic Decision-Making.” In System Dynamics: Theory and Applications, edited by B. Dangerfield, 341–373. New York, NY: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-1-4939-8790-0_657.
   Google Scholar
• Meadows, D. 1999. Thinking in Systems. Sustainability Institute.
   Google Scholar
• Merton, R. K. 1973. The Sociology of Science: Theoretical and Empirical Investigations. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
   Google Scholar
• Midgley, G. 1996. “What Is This Thing Called CST?” In Critical Systems Thinking, edited by R. Flood and N. Romm, 11–24. Boston, MA: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Midgley, G. 1997. “Dealing with Coercion: Critical Systems Heuristics and Beyond.” Systems Practice 10 (1): 37–57.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nasirzadeh, F., A. Afshar, M. Khanzadi, et al. 2008. “Integrating System Dynamics and Fuzzy Logic Modelling for Construction Risk Management.” Construction Management and Economics 26 (11): 1197–1212. doi:10.1080/01446190802459924.
   Google Scholar
• Newell, B., and K. Proust. 2012. “Introduction to Collaborative Conceptual Modelling.” Canberra: Australian National University Working Paper 20. https://openresearchrepository.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/9386
   Google Scholar
• Newsome, I. M. 2008. “Using System Dynamics to Model the Impact of Policing Activity on Performance.” Journal of the Operational Research Society 59 (2): 164–170. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602454.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nutley, S., I. Walter, and N. Bland. 2002. “The Institutional Arrangements for Connecting Evidence and Policy: The Case of Drug Misuse.” Public Policy and Administration 17 (3): 76–94.
   Google Scholar
• Parkhurst, J. 2017. The Politics of Evidence: From Evidence-Based Policy to the Good Governance of Evidence. London: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group.
   Google Scholar
• Parkhurst, J., L. Ghilardi, et al. 2021. “Understanding Evidence Use from a Programmatic Perspective: Conceptual Development and Empirical Insights from National Malaria Control Programmes.” Evidence & Policy 17 (3): 447–466.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pielke, R. Jr 2007. The Honest Broker: Making Sense of Science in Policy and Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Radaelli, C. 1995. “The Role of Knowledge in the Policy Process.” Journal of European Public Policy 2 (2): 159–183.
   Google Scholar
• Randers, J. 1980. “Guidelines for Model Conceptualization.” In Elements of the System Dynamics Method, edited by J. Randers, 17–139. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
   Google Scholar
• Richardson, G. P., A. L. Pugh, III. 1981. Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling with DYNAMO. Cambridge, MA: Productivity Press.
   Google Scholar
• Roberts, N. H., D. F. Andersen, R. M. Deal, M. S. Grant, and W. A. Shaffer. 1983. Introduction to Computer Simulation: The System Dynamics Modeling Approach. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
   Google Scholar
• Rouwette, E. A. J. A., H. Korzilius, J. A. M. Vennix, et al. 2010. “Modeling as Persuasion: The Impact of Group Model Building on Attitudes and Behavior.” System Dynamics Review: N/a-n/a. doi:10.1002/sdr.441.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Senge, P. 1990. The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization. 2nd ed. New York: Crown.
   Google Scholar
• Shaxson L, Ahmed I, Brien D, et al. (2012) “Expanding Our Understanding of K* (KT, KE, KTT, KMb, KB, KM, etc.).” In: The K* Conference, Hamilton, Ontario, 88. United Nations University, Institute for Water, Environment and Health.
   Google Scholar
• Shen, Q., Q. Chen, B. Tang, et al. 2009. “A System Dynamics Model for the Sustainable Land Use Planning and Development.” Habitat International 33 (1): 15–25. doi:10.1016/j.habitatint.2008.02.004.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Simon, H. A. 1955. “A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 69 (1): 99. doi:10.2307/1884852.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Simon, H. 1982. Models of Bounded Rationality. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
   Google Scholar
• Smith, K. 2014. Beyond Evidence-based Policy in Public Health. Houndmills, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
   Google Scholar
• Stave, K. A. 2002. “Using System Dynamics to Improve Public Participation in Environmental Decisions.” System Dynamics Review 18 (2): 139–167. doi:10.1002/sdr.237.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sterman, J. 2000. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Boston: McGraw-Hill.
   Google Scholar
• Sterman, J. (2003) System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. In: Working Paper Series, 31. Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division.
   Google Scholar
• Sterman, J. 2006. “Learning from Evidence in a Complex World.” American Journal of Public Health 96: 505–514.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stewart, E., and K. Smith. 2015. “‘Black Magic’ and ‘Gold Dust’: The Epistemic and Political Uses of Evidence Tools in Public Health Policy Making.” Evidence & Policy: A Journal of Research, Debate and Practice 11 (3): 415–437.
   Google Scholar
• Teisman, G. R., and E.-H. Klijn. 2008. “Complexity Theory and Public Management: An Introduction.” Public Management Review 10 (3): 287–297. doi:10.1080/14719030802002451.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Teng, Y., N. Kong, and W. Tu. 2015. “Optimizing Strategies for Population-Based Chlamydia Infection Screening among Young Women: An Age-structured System Dynamics Approach.” BMC Public Health 15 (1): 639. doi:10.1186/s12889-015-1975-z.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thompson, M., Y. Wei, C. Dunn, and C. O'Connor. 2019. “A System Dynamics Model Examining Alternative Wildfire Response Policies.” Systems 7 (4): 49. doi:10.3390/systems7040049.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Townshend, J. R. P., and H. S. Turner. 2000. “Analysing the Effectiveness of Chlamydia Screening.” Journal of the Operational Research Society 51 (7): 812–824. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2600978.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• UK Government. 2013. What Works: Evidence Centres for Social Policy. London: UK Cabinet Office.
   Google Scholar
• Ulrich, W. 1994. Critical Heuristics of Social Planning: A New Approach to Practical Philosophy. Chichester: Wiley.
   Google Scholar
• Ulrich, W., and M. Reynolds. 2010. “Critical Systems Heuristics.” In Systems Approaches to Managing Change: A Practical Guide, edited by M. Reynolds and S. Holwell, 243–292. London: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-1-84882-809-4_6.
   Google Scholar
• Ulrich, W., and M. Reynolds. 2020. “Critical Systems Heuristics: The Idea and Practice of Boundary Critique.” In Systems Approaches to Making Change: A Practical Guide, edited by M. Reynolds and S. Holwell (Retired), 255–306. London: Springer London. doi:10.1007/978-1-4471-7472-1_6.
   Google Scholar
• Viana, J., S. C. Brailsford, V. Harindra, et al. 2014. “Combining Discrete-Event Simulation and System Dynamics in a Healthcare Setting: A Composite Model for Chlamydia Infection.” European Journal of Operational Research 237 (1): 196–206. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2014.02.052.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walter, I., S. Nutley, and H. Davies. 2005. “What Works to Promote Evidence-Based Practice? A Cross-Sector Review.” Evidence & Policy: A Journal of Research, Debate and Practice 1 (3): 335–364.
   Google Scholar
• Walton, M. 2016. “Setting the Context for Using Complexity Theory in Evaluation: Boundaries, Governance and Utilisation.” Evidence & Policy 12 (1): 73–89.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weed, M. n.d. “Models and Methods to Analyse the Interaction of Evidence and Policy in the First 100 Days of the UK Government’s Response to COVID-19.” SocArXiv 7. doi:10.31235/osf.io/f73u4.
   Google Scholar
• Weeks, M. R., J. Li, S. Liao, et al. 2013. “Multilevel Dynamic Systems Affecting Introduction of HIV/STI Prevention Innovations among Chinese Women in Sex Work Establishments.” Health Education & Behavior 40 (1_suppl): 111S–122S. doi:10.1177/1090198113490723.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weiss, C. H. 1979. “The Many Meanings of Research Utilization.” Public Administration Review 39 (5): 426. doi:10.2307/3109916.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wolstenholme, E. 1990. System Enquiry: A System Dynamics Approach. Chichester: Wiley.
   Google Scholar