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Original Articles

Longitudinal Approaches to Migration in Social History

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Pages 20-30 | Published online: 06 Feb 2013

NOTES

  • The research on which this article is based has been supported by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, grants HD13415 and HD18976, and a PHS Biomedical Support Grant from the University of Chicago
  • Chatelain , Abel . 1969 . “Migrations et Domesticité Féminine Urbaine en France, XVII Ie Siècle XXe Siècle,” . Révue d'Histoire Economique et Sociale , 47 : 506 – 528 . Gabriel Désert, “Centres Urbains et Courants Migratoires,” Annales de Démographie Historique, (1976), 261–277; Yves Lequin, Les Ouvriers de la Région Lyonnais (1848–1914), vol. 1 (Lyon, 1977); David F. Crew, Town in the Ruhr: A Social History of Bochum, 1860–1914 (New York, 1979); Michael Anderson, “Urban Migration into Nineteenth Century Lanchashire,” Annales de Démographie Historique (1971), 13–26; and Leslie Page Moch, Paths to the City (Beverly Hills, 1983). For the eighteenth century see Giovanna Da Molin, “Mobilità dei Contadini Pugliesi tra Fine ′600 e Primo ′800,” in Athos Bellettini, ed., La Popolazione Italiana nel Settecento (Bologna, 1980); and Allan Sharlin and John Sammis, “Migration and Urban Population in Pre-Industrial Europe: Würzburg in the Late Seventeenth and Early Eighteenth Centuries,” paper presented to the annual meeting of the Social Science History Association, (Bloomington, 1982), For the nineteenth century, see
  • Friedlander , Dov and Roshier , R. J. 1966 . “A Study of Internal Migration in England and Wales: Part I,” . Population Studies , 19 : 239 – 279 . and Barbara A. Anderson, Internal Migration during Modernization in Late Nineteenth-Century Russia (Princeton, 1980)
  • Blayo , Yves . 1970 . “La Mobilité dans un village de la Brie vers le Milieu de XIXe Siècle,” . Population , 25 : 573 – 605 . Michael B. Katz, The People of Hamilton, Canada West: Family and Class in a Mid-Nineteenth Century City (Cambridge, Mass., 1975); Emmanuel Todd, “Mobilité Géographique et Cycle de Vie en Artois et en Toscane au XVIIIe Siècle,” Annales E.S.C., 30 (1975), 726–744; Crew, Town; James R. Lehning, The Peasants of Marlhes (Chapel Hill, 1980); Luigi Tittarelli, “La Mobilità Territoriale della Popolazione di una Parrocchia Ternana nel XVIII Secolo,” in Belletini, Popolazione, 477–500; Christian Pouyez, Raymond Roy, and Gérard Bouchard, “La Mobilité Géographique en Milieu Rurale; Le Saguenay, 1852–1861,” Histoire Sociale, 14 (1981), 123–156; and Fabio Giusberti, “Mobilité de la Population et Territoire Urbain: Un Secteur de Bologne dans les Années 1816 et 1820,” Annales de Démographie Historique 1982, 183-190
  • Rozat , Maryse . 1977 . “Les Echanges de Population entre Villages Voisins,” . Annales de Démographie Historique , : 21 – 48 . Carlo A. Corsini, “La Mobilità della Popolazione nel Settecento: Fonti, Metodi e Problemi,” in Bellettini, Popolazione, 401–433; Maurizio Gribaudi, “Stratégies Migratoires et Mobilité entre Village et Ville,” Population, 37 (1982), 1159–1181
  • Thernstrom , Stephan and Knights , Peter R. 1970 . “Men in Motion: Some Data and Speculations about Urban Population Mobility in Nineteenth-Century America,” . Journal of Interdisciplinary History , 1 : 7 – 35 . For a discussion of this use of city directories see
  • Crew . Town 61
  • Hochstadt , Steve . 1981 . “Migration and Industrialization in Germany, 1815–1977,” . Social Science History , 5 : 445 – 468 . Other data sources for historical migration studies, often of a historically unique nature, have also been used. Michael Katz, Michael J. Doucet, and Mark J. Stern, The Social Organization of Early Industrial Capitalism (Cambridge, 1982) makes use of the New York State census of 1855, which provides for each resident length of time lived in present town or city. This allows them to compare urban and rural transiency rates. Eighteenth-century annual English estate account books are used to examine servant mobility by Ann Kussmaul, “The Ambiguous Mobility of Farm Servants,” Economic History Review, 34 1981, 222-235 See also Roger S. Schofield, “Age-Specific Mobility in an Eighteenth Century Rural English Parish,” Annales de Démographie Historique, (1970), 261–273.
  • Thomas , Dorothy S. 1938 . “A Note on Continuous Population Registers as a Source for Migration Data,”. ” . In Research Memorandum on Migration Differentials Edited by: Thomas . 410 – 413 . New York and Donald J. Bogue, Principles of Demography (New York, 1969)
  • Thernstrom , Stephan . 1973 . The Other Bostonians 10 – 16 . Cambridge A number of historians have emphasized the tremendous difference between the use of net and gross migration rates. In using net rates, we look only at the difference between total immigration into and emigration from a given area. There need be little relationship between the size of net and gross migration rates. A place could have tremendous population flux, with its entire population migrating each year, yet have a net migration rate of zero. See
  • Schnore , Leo R. 1961 . “Social Mobility in Demographic Perspective,” . American Sociological Review , 26 : 407 – 423 . Principles
  • Shryock , Henry S. and Larmon , Elizabeth A. 1965 . “Some Longitudinal Data on Internal Migration,” . Demography , 2 : 579 – 592 . and Karl E. Taeuber, “Duration-of-Residence Analysis of Internal Migration in the United States,” Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 39 (1961), 116–131. In historical research on migration the most common method of this type is limited to correlating place of residence information with information on place of birth, both of these generally taken from censuses, as discussed above. Such methods cannot tell us about the characteristics of migrants when they move nor, of course, much about the timing of migration or the extent of return migration
  • Myers , George C. , McGinnis , Robert and Masnick , George . 1967 . “The Duration of Residence Approach to a Dynamic Stochastic Model of Internal Migration: A Test Case of the Axiom of Cumulative Inertia,” . Eugenics Quarterly , 14 : 121 – 126 . and Peter A. Morrison, “Duration of Residence and Prospective Migration: The Evaluation of a Stochastic Model,” Demography, 4 (1967), 553–561, For the Cornell model, see
  • By non-Markovian we refer to the fact that the likelihood of an event (i.e., migration) occurring at a particular point of time is not simply a function of current status, but depends on previous experience (i.e., past migration history)
  • Paul Shaw , R. Migration Theory and Fact: A Review and Bibliography of Current Literature Philadelphia : Regional Science Research Institute. . For a concise discussion of probabilistic and stochastic approaches to the study of migration, Bibliography Series no. 5, Also see Seymour Spilerman, “The Analysis of Mobility Processes by the Introduction of Independent Variables into a Markov Chain,” American Sociological Review, 37 (1972), 277–294; and Nancy B. Tuma, “Rewards, Resources, and the Rate of Mobility: A Nonstationary Multivariate Stochastic Model,” American Sociological Review, 41 (1976), 338–360
  • Taeuber . 1966 . “Cohort Migration,” . Demography , 3 : 416 – 422 .
  • That is, rates of migration typically increase with increasing age until some time in early adulthood and then decline with age thereafter. See Thomas, “A Note.”
  • Hannan , Michael T. and Tuma , Nancy B. 1979 . “Methods for Temporal Analysis,” . Annual Review of Sociology , 5 : 303 – 338 . and Aage B. Sørensen, “Analysis of Change in Discrete Variables,” in Jerome Clubb and Erwin Scheuch, eds., Historical Social Research (Stuttgart, 1980), 284–299
  • Riley , Matilda White , Johnson , Marilyn and Foner , Anne . 1972 . Aging and Society, Vol. III: A Sociology of Age Stratification New York An overview of the age stratification approach is provided by
  • Shryock , Siegel . 1976 . “Some Longitudinal,” Taeuber, “Cohort Migration,” Michael B. Toney, “Length of Residence, Social Ties, and Economic Opportunities,” . Demography , 13 : 297 – 310 . Norval D. Glenn and W. Parker Frisbie, “Trend Studies with Survey Sample and Census Data,” Annual Review of Sociology, 3 (1977), 79–104; and Gary D. Sandefur and Wilbur J. Scott, “A Dynamic Analysis of Migration: An Assessment of the Effects of Age, Family and Career Variables,” Demography, 18 (1981), 355–368
  • Shryock and Siegel . 1964 . “Some Longitudinal,” Sidney Goldstein, “The Extent of Repeated Migration: An Analysis Based on the Danish Population Register,” . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 59 : 1121 – 1132 . and Charles Tilly, “Migration in Modern European History,” in William H. McNeill and Ruth S. Adams, ed., Human Migration (Bloomington, 1978), 48–72
  • Schiaffino , Andrea and Kertzer , David I. 1982 . The Casalecchio Project Handbook, Part One: General Guide and Codebook, , revised edition Brunswick , ME : Bowdoin College. . For a description of sources employed in the Casalecchio Project, 1983). Compilation of most of the data base was under the supervision of Andrea Schiaffino
  • Di Rienzo , Pilade . 1957 . “Movimento Anagrafico,” . In Annali di Statistica vol. 6 , 2 – 31 . Rome Series 8, and Giovanni Cariani, “Il Calcolo della Popolazione Residente e le Statistiche del Movimento Migratorio Interno,” in Istituto Centrale di Statistica, ed., Cinquanta Anni di Attività, 1926–1976 (Rome, 1977), 135–144
  • In the case of the Casalecchio Project we are in the midst of using all these methods to provide migration dates for those individuals (approximately 10%) whose dates are lacking from the individual and household registers
  • Eriksson , Ingrid and Rogers , John . 1978 . Rural Labor and Population Change: Social and Demographic Developments in East-Central Sweden during the Nineteenth Century Uppsala The Swedish population register is one source that facilitates such following of migrants from locality to locality. See
  • Kertzer , David I. and Hogan , Dennis P. 1983 . “Longitudinal Perspectives on Migration in an Italian Community, 1865–1921,” . paper presented to the annual meeting of the Social Science History Association . 1983 , Washington , D.C. . More detail on Casalecchio di Reno is provided in
  • Shryock and Larmon . “Some Longitudinal”; and Goldstein, “The Extent.”
  • Tuma , Nancy B. , Hannan , Michael T. and Groeneveld , Lyle P. 1979 . “Dynamic Analysis of Event Histories,” . American Journal of Sociology , 84 : 820 – 854 .
  • Riley , Matilda White . 1973 . “Aging and Cohort Succession: Interpretations and Misinterpretations,” . Public Opinion Quarterly , 37 : 35 – 49 . On cohort analysis, see
  • Taeuber . “Duration” and Toney, “Length of Residence.”
  • Sørensen . “Analysis of Change.”
  • Sheps , Mindel C. 1966 . “On the Person Years Concept in Epidemiology and Demography,” . Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly , 44 : 69 – 91 . Alan J. Gross and Virginia A. Clark, Survival Distributions (New York, 1975); and Robert G. Potter, “The Multiple Decrement Life Table as an Approach to the Measurement of Use Effectiveness and Demographic Effectiveness of Contraception,” paper presented to the Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (Sydney, 1977), On the single-decrement survival table approach see
  • Cox , David R. 1972 . “Regression Models and Life Tables,” . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , 34 : 187 – 220 . Series B
  • Hannan and Tuma . “Methods”; and Tuma, Hannan and Groeneveld, “Dynamic Analysis.”
  • Sandefur and Scott . “Dynamic Analysis”
  • Tuma , Nancy B. 1982 . “Nonparametric and Partially Parametric Approaches to Event-History Analysis,”. ” . In Sociological Methodology 1982 Edited by: Leinhardt , Samuel . 1 – 59 . San Francisco
  • Trussell , James and Hammerslough , Charles . 1983 . “A Hazards-Model Analysis of the Covariates of Infant and Child Mortality in Sri Lanka,” . Demography , 20 : 1 – 26 . For an application of a proportional hazards model see
  • Tuma , Nancy B. Dr. Stanford , CA 94305 : Department of Sociology, Stanford University. .

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