294
Views
3
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

A probabilistic conceptual model to attribute runoff variations to human activity

, , ORCID Icon, , &
Pages 309-321 | Received 05 Jan 2020, Accepted 21 Sep 2020, Published online: 22 Jan 2021

References

  • Ahn, K.H. and Merwade, V., 2014. Quantifying the relative impact of climate and human activities on streamflow. Journal of Hydrology, 515, 257–266. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.062
  • Bao, Z., et al., 2012. Attribution for decreasing streamflow of the Haihe River basin, northern China: climate variability or human activities? Journal of Hydrology, 460–461, 117–129. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.06.054
  • Budyko, M.I., 1974. Climate and life. New York: Academic Press.
  • Busuioc, A. and von Storch, H.V., 1996. Changes in the winter precipitation in Romania and its relation to the large-scale circulation. Tellus, 48 (4), 538–552. doi:10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-3-00004.x
  • Dey, P. and Mishra, A., 2017. Separating the impacts of climate change and human activitieson streamflow: a review of methodologies and critical assumptions. Journal of Hydrology, 548, 278–290. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.014
  • Fitelson, B.A. and Hájek, 2017. Declarations of independence. Synthese, 194 (10), 3979–3995. doi:10.1007/s11229-014-0559-2
  • Friendly, M., Monette, G., and Fox, J., 2013. Elliptic insights: understanding statistical methods through elliptical geometry. Statistical Science, 28, 1–39. doi:10.1214/12-STS402
  • Fu, J., 2010. Study on the effects of land-use change on flood in Daqinghe River Bain. Thesis(PhD). Tianjing University. (in Chinese).
  • Gao, Y., Wang, H., and Long, D., 2009. Changes in hydrological conditions and the eco-environmental problems in Baiyangdian watershed. Resources Science, 31, 1506–1513. (in chinese). Available from: http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZY200909010.htm
  • Honjo, Y., Liu, W.T., and Sakajo, S., 1994. Application of akaike information criterion statistics to geotechnical inverse analysis - the extended bayesian method. Structural Safety, 14, 5–29. doi:10.1016/0167-4730(94)90004-3
  • Hu, S., et al., 2012. Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water’ source area of Baiyangdian Lake. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 22, 895–905. doi:10.1007/s11442-012-0971-9
  • Jaramillo, F., et al., 2013. Multimethod assessment of evapotranspiration shifts due to non-irrigated agricultural development in sweden. Journal of Hydrology, 484, 55–62. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.010
  • Jaramillo, F., et al., 2018. Dominant effect of increasing forest biomass on evapotranspiration: interpretations of movement in Budyko space. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22, 567–580. doi:10.5194/hess-22-567-2018
  • Jhong, B.C., Tung, C.P., and Tsakiris, G., 2018. Evaluating future joint probability of precipitation extremes with a copula-based assessing approach in climate change. Water Resources Management, 32, 4253–4274. doi:10.1007/s11269-018-2045-y
  • Jiang, C., et al., 2015. Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using the Budyko-type equations with time-varying parameters. Journal of Hydrology, 522, 326–338. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.060
  • Kojadinovic, I., Yan, J., and Holmes, M., 2011. Fast large-sample goodness-of-t tests for copulas. Statistica Sinica, 21, 841–871. Available from: www.jstor.org/stable/24309543
  • Kong, D., et al., 2016. Impactassessment of climate change and humanactivities on net runoff in the Yellow River Basin from 1951 to 2012. Ecological Engineering, 91, 566–573. doi:10.1016/j.ecoleng.2016.02.023
  • Li, J., Feng, P., and Chen, F., 2014. Effects of land use change on flood characteristics in mountainous area of Daqinghe watershed, China. Natural Hazards, 70, 593–607. doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0830-8
  • Liu, J.J., et al., 2019. A new approach to separating the impacts of climate change and multiple human activities on water cycle processes based on a distributed hydrological model. Journal of Hydrology, 578, 1–13. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124096
  • Liu, M., Gao, Y., and Gan, G., 2011. Long-term trends in annual runoff and the impact of meteorological factors in the Baiyangdian watershed. Resources Science, 33, 1438–1445.
  • Ma, H., et al., 2010. Impact of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in the Miyun Reservoir catchment. Journal of Hydrology, 389 (3–4), 317–324. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.010
  • Marsaglia, G., Tsang, W.W., and Wang, J.B., 2003. Evaluating Kolmogorov’s Distribution. Journal of Statistical Software, 8, 1–4. doi:10.18637/jss.v008.i18
  • Milly, P.C.D., et al., 2008. Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science, 319, 573–574. doi:10.1126/science.1151915
  • Ministry of Water Resources of the P.R.China, 2012. Hydrological data of Haihe River Basin. Annual hydrological report, Beijing, China.
  • Mitchell, T. and Jones, P., 2005. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids RID C-8718-2009. International Journal of Climatology, 25(6), 693–712. doi:10.1002/joc.1181
  • Mwangi, H.M., et al., 2016. Relative contribution of land use change and climate variability on discharge of upper Mara River, Kenya. Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, 5, 244–260. doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.12.059
  • Nelsen, R.B., 2006. An introduction to copulas (Springer Series in Statistics). New York: Springer.
  • Pandey, P.K., et al., 2018. Modelling of interdependence between rainfall and temperature using copula. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 4 (2), 867–879. doi:10.1007/s40808-018-0454-9
  • Paul, S.S., et al., 2018. Application of object oriented image classification and Markov Chain Modeling for Land Use and Land Covet change analysis. Journal of Environmental Informatics, 31 (1), 30–40. doi:10.3808/jei.201700368
  • Paul, S.S., et al., 2019. Assessing land use–land cover change and soil erosion potential using a combined approach through remote sensing, RUSLE and random forest algorithm. Geocarto International, 1–13. doi:10.1080/10106049.2019.1614099
  • Pettitt, A.N., 1979. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 28, 126–135. doi:10.2307/2346729
  • Polajzer, B., Brezovnik, R., and Ritonja, J., 2016. Evaluation of load frequency control performance based on standard deviational ellipses. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 32, 2296–2304. Available from: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=7560610
  • Ruxton, G.D. and Neuhäuser, M., 2010. When should we use one-tailed hypothesis testing? Methods in Ecology & Evolution, 1, 114–117. doi:10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00014.x
  • Ryberg, K.R., Hodgkins, G.A., and Dudley, R.W., 2020. Change points in annual peak streamflows—Method comparisons and historical change points in the United States. Journal of Hydrology, 583, 124307. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124307
  • Suttles, K.M., et al., 2018. Assessment of hydrologic vulnerability to urbanization and climate change in a rapidly changing watershed in the Southeast US. Science of the Total Environment, 645, 806–816. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.287
  • Tu, X., et al., 2015. Intra-annual distribution of streamflow and individual impacts of climate change and human activities in the Dongijang River Basin, China. Water Resources Management, 29, 2677–2695. doi:10.1007/s11269-015-0963-5
  • Velpuri, N.M. and Senay, G.B., 2013. Analysis of long-term trends (1950–2009) in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States. Environmental Research Letters, 8, 24020–24026. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024020
  • Wahl, T., et al., 2015. Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities. Nature Climate Change, 5, 1093–1097. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2736
  • Wang, D. and Hejazi, M., 2011. Quantifying the relative contribution of the climate and direct human impacts on mean annual streamflow in the contiguous United States. Water Resources Research, 47, 411. doi:10.1029/2010WR010283
  • Wang, G., Xia, J., and Chen, J., 2009. Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model: a case study of the Chaobai River basin in northern China. Water Resources Research, 45, W00A11. doi:10.1029/2007WR006768
  • Wang, W., et al., 2013. Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin, China. Hydrological Processes, 27, 1158–1174. doi:10.1002/hyp.9299
  • Wang, W., et al., 2018. Two-dimension monthly river flow simulation using hierarchical network-copula conditional models. Water Resources Management, 32, 3801–3820. doi:10.1007/s11269-018-1968-7
  • Wang, X., et al., 2014. Trend and extreme occurrence of precipitation in a mid-latitude Eurasian steppe watershed at various time scales. Hydrological Processes, 28, 5547–5560. doi:10.1002/hyp.10054
  • Wang, X., et al., 2015. Variation analysis of streamflow and ecological flow for the twin rivers of the Miyun Reservoir Basin in northern China from 1963 to 2011. Science of the Total Environment, 536, 739–749. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.088
  • Wang, X., et al., 2017. Identifying priority management intervals of discharge and TN/TP concentration with copula analysis for Miyun Reservoir inflows, North China. Science of the Total Environment, 609, 1258. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.135
  • Wang, X.X., 2014. Advances in separating effects of climate variability and human activity on stream discharge: an overview. Advances in Water Resources, 71, 209–218. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2014.06.007
  • Wang, Y., et al., 2013b. Contributions of climate and human activities to changes in runoff of the Yellow and Yangtze rivers from 1950 to 2008. Science China-Earth Sciences, 56, 1398–1412. doi:10.1007/s11430-012-4505-1
  • Wei, C. and Zhang, M., 2010. Quantifying streamflow change caused by forest disturbance at a large spatial scale: a single watershed study. Water Resources Research, 46, W12525. doi:10.1029/2010WR009250
  • Wu, J., et al., 2017. Detecting the quantitative hydrological response to changes in climate and human activities. Science of the Total Environment, 586, 328–337. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.010
  • Xu, X., et al., 2014. Attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for detecting the dominant cause of runoff decline in Haihe basin. Journal of Hydrology, 510, 530–540. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.052
  • Ye, X.C., et al., 2013. Distinguishing the relative impacts of climate change and humanactivities on variation of streamflow in the Poyang Lake catchment,China. Journal of Hydrology, 494, 83–95. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.04.036
  • Yuan, Y., et al., 2016. Quantitative assessment of the contribution of climate variability and human activity to streamflow alteration in Dongting Lake, China. Hydrological Processes, 30, 1929–1939. doi:10.1002/hyp.10768
  • Yue, S., et al., 2002. The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrological Processes, 16, 1807–1829. doi:10.1002/hyp.1095
  • Zeng, S., et al., 2015. Effects of climate change and human activities on surface runoff in the Luan River Basin. Advances in Meteorology, 2015, 1–12. doi:10.1155/2015/740239
  • Zhang, L., Dawes, W.R., and Walker, G.R., 2001. Response of mean annual evapotranspiration to vegetation changes at catchment scale. Water Resources Research, 37, 701–708. doi:10.1029/2000WR900325
  • Zhang, Q., et al., 2016. Evaluation of impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin, China. Hydrological Processes, 30, 2562–2576. doi:10.1002/hyp.10814
  • Zhang, Z.X., et al., 2011. Evaluating the non-stationary relationship between precipitation and streamflow in Nine Major Basins of China during the past 50 years. Journal of Hydrology, 409, 81–93. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.07.041
  • Zhao, G.J., et al., 2014. Quantifying the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin. China. Journal of Hydrology, 519, 387–398. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2014.06.007
  • Zhao, Y.F., et al., 2015. Quantifying the anthropogenic and climatic contributions to changes in water discharge and sediment load into the sea: a case study of the Yangtze River, China. Science of the Total Environment, 536, 803–812. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.119
  • Zipper, S.C., et al., 2018. Continuous separation of land use and climate effects on the past and future water balance. Journal of Hydrology, 565, 106–122. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.022

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.