353
Views
1
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
WINNER OF THE 2023 FRANCES WATKINS MEMORIAL AWARD

A hydrologic and river ice modelling framework for assessing ungauged sub-basin streamflow impact in a large cold-region river basin

& ORCID Icon
Pages 2121-2140 | Received 19 Feb 2023, Accepted 08 Aug 2023, Published online: 25 Sep 2023

References

  • Abbaspour, K.C., 2015. SWAT calibration and uncertainty programs—A user manual. In: Eawag is the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology. Eawag, Switz.
  • Andrishak, R. and Hicks, F., 2008. Simulating the effects of climate change on the ice regime of the Peace River. The Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 35 (5), 461–472. doi:10.1139/L07-129.
  • Arnold, J.G., et al., 1998. Large area hydrologic modeling and assesment part I: model development. The Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA), 34 (1), 73–89. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x.
  • Asquith, W.H., Roussel, M.C., and Vrabel, J., 2006. Statewide analysis of the drainage-area ratio method for 34 streamflow percentile ranges in Texas. Reston, VA: US Geological Survey.
  • Beltaos, S., 2008. Progress in the study and management of river ice jams. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 51 (1), 2–19. doi:10.1016/j.coldregions.2007.09.001.
  • Beltaos, S. and Prowse, T., 2009. River‐ice hydrology in a shrinking cryosphere. Hydrological Processes, 23 (1), 122–144. doi:10.1002/hyp.7165.
  • Beltaos, S. and Prowse, T.D., 2001. Climate impacts on extreme ice-jam events in Canadian rivers. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 46 (1), 157–181. doi:10.1080/02626660109492807.
  • Blackburn, J. and Hicks, F., 2002. Combined flood routing and flood level forecasting. The Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 29 (1), 64–75. doi:10.1139/l01-079.
  • Blackburn, J. and She, Y., 2019. A comprehensive public-domain river ice process model and its application to a complex natural river. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 163 (April), 44–58. doi:10.1016/j.coldregions.2019.04.010.
  • Blöschl, G. and Sivapalan, M., 1995. Scale issues in hydrological modelling: a review. Hydrological Processes, 9 (3–4), 251–290. doi:10.1002/hyp.3360090305.
  • Bonnifait, L., et al., 2009. Distributed hydrologic and hydraulic modelling with radar rainfall input: reconstruction of the 8-9 September 2002 catastrophic flood event in the Gard region, France. Advances in Water Resources, 32 (7), 1077–1089. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.03.007.
  • Booker, D.J. and Woods, R.A., 2014. Comparing and combining physically-based and empirically-based approaches for estimating the hydrology of ungauged catchments. Journal of Hydrology, 508, 227–239. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.007.
  • Burrell, B.C., Beltaos, S., and Turcotte, B., 2021. Effects of climate change on River-Ice processes and ice jams. International Journal of River Basin Management, 21, 1–78. doi:10.1080/15715124.2021.2007936.
  • Chen, F., Shen, H.T., and Jayasundara, N., 2006. A one-dimensional comprehensive river ice model. In: Proceedings of the 18th IAHR International Symposium on Ice. Sapporo, Japan: Citeseer.
  • Chen, Y., et al., 2023. Evaluation and uncertainty assessment of weather data and model calibration on daily streamflow simulation in a large-scale regulated and snow-dominated river basin. Journal of Hydrology, 617, 129103. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129103
  • Dahl, M.-P.J., et al., 2019. Variation in discharge data and correction routines at the Norwegian Water resources and energy directorate, Norway. In: CGU HS Committee on River Ice Process and the Environment 20h Work Hydraulic Ice Cover. Rivers Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
  • Das, A., Rokaya, P., and Lindenschmidt, K.E., 2020. Ice-Jam flood risk assessment and hazard mapping under future climate. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 146 (6), 1–12. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001178.
  • De Rham, L., et al., 2020. A Canadian River Ice database from the national hydrometric program archives. Earth System Science Data (ESSD), 12 (3), 1835–1860. doi:10.5194/essd-12-1835-2020.
  • Dessie, M., et al., 2015. Water balance of a lake with floodplain buffering: lake Tana, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Hydrology, 522, 174–186. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.049.
  • Emerson, D.G., Vecchia, A.V., and Dahl, A.L., 2005. Evaluation of drainage-area ratio method used to estimate streamflow for the Red River of the North Basin, North Dakota and Minnesota. Reston, VA: US Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey.
  • Ergen, K. and Kentel, E., 2016. An integrated map correlation method and multiple-source sites drainage-area ratio method for estimating streamflows at ungauged catchments: a case study of the Western Black Sea Region, Turkey. Journal of Environmental Management, 166, 309–320. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.10.036.
  • French, H.M., 2017. The periglacial environment. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Gianfagna, C.C., et al., 2015. Watershed area ratio accurately predicts daily streamflow in nested catchments in the Catskills, New York. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 4, 583–594. The Authors. doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.09.002.
  • Grimaldi, S., et al., 2019. Challenges, opportunities, and pitfalls for global coupled hydrologic-hydraulic modeling of floods. Water Resources Research, 55 (7), 5277–5300. doi:10.1029/2018WR024289.
  • Guo, Y., et al., 2021. Regionalization of hydrological modeling for predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments: a comprehensive review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 8 (1), e1487. doi:10.1002/wat2.1487.
  • He, Y., Bárdossy, A., and Zehe, E., 2011. A review of regionalisation for continuous streamflow simulation. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15 (11), 3539–3553. doi:10.5194/hess-15-3539-2011.
  • Hersbach, H., et al., 2020. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (730), 1999–2049. doi:10.1002/qj.3803.
  • Hicks, F., 1996. Hydraulic flood routing with minimal channel data: peace River, Canada. The Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 23 (2), 524–535. doi:10.1139/l96-057.
  • Hicks, F. and Steffler, P.M., 1990. Finite element modeling of open channel flow. Department of civil engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta. Water Resources Engineering Reports, (90–6).
  • Hicks, F. and Steffler, P.M., 1992. Characteristic dissipative Galerkin scheme for open-channel flow. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 118 (2), 337–352. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1992)118:2(337).
  • Hrachowitz, M., et al., 2013. A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)-a review. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1198–1255. doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.803183.
  • Huang, F., Jasek, M., and Shen, H.T. (2021) Simulation of the 2014 dynamic ice breakup on the Peace River 1–19.
  • Krause, P., Boyle, D.P., and Bäse, F., 2005. Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment. Advances in Geosciences, 5, 89–97. doi:10.5194/adgeo-5-89-2005
  • Li, Q., et al., 2019a. A combined method for estimating continuous runoff by parameter transfer and drainage area ratio method in ungauged catchments. Water, 11 (5), 1104. doi:10.3390/w11051104.
  • Li, W., et al., 2019b. Risk assessment and sensitivity analysis of flash floods in ungauged basins using coupled hydrologic and hydrodynamic models. Journal of Hydrology, 572 (February), 108–120. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.002.
  • Lindenschmidt, K.E., 2017. RIVICE-A non-proprietary, open-source, one-dimensional river-ice model. Water (Switzerland), 9 (5). doi:10.3390/w9050314.
  • Lindenschmidt, K.E., et al., 2019. A novel stochastic modelling approach for operational real-time ice-jam flood forecasting. Journal of Hydrology, 575 (June 2018), 381–394. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.048.
  • Liu, G., et al., 2015. Discharge and water‐depth estimates for ungauged rivers: combining hydrologic, hydraulic, and inverse modeling with stage and water‐area measurements from satellites. Water Resources Research, 51 (8), 6017–6035. doi:10.1002/2015WR016971.
  • Liu, L., Li, H., and Shen, H.T., 2006. A two-dimensional comprehensive river ice model. In: Proceedings of the 18th IAHR International Symposium on Ice, Sapporo, Japan, 69–76.
  • McCuen, R.H. and Levy, B.S., 2000. Evaluation of peak discharge transposition. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 5 (3), 278–289. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2000)5:3(278).
  • Merz, B., et al., 2021. Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2 (9), 592–609. doi:10.1038/s43017-021-00195-3.
  • Mishra, A., et al., 2022. An overview of flood concepts, challenges, and future directions. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 27 (6), 1–30. doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0002164.
  • Mishra, A.K. and Coulibaly, P., 2009. Developments in hydrometric network design: a review. Reviews of Geophysics, 47 (2). doi:10.1029/2007RG000243.
  • Moriasi, D.N., et al., 2007. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of the ASABE, 50 (3), 885–900. doi:10.13031/2013.23153.
  • Neitsch, S., et al., 2011. Soil & water assessment tool theoretical documentation version 2009. Texas Water Resources Institute, 1–647. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.11.063.
  • Nguyen, P., et al., 2016. A high resolution coupled hydrologic–hydraulic model (HiResFlood-UCI) for flash flood modeling. Journal of Hydrology, 541, 401–420. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.10.047.
  • Pagliero, L., et al., 2019. Investigating regionalization techniques for large-scale hydrological modelling. Journal of Hydrology, 570 (December 2018), 220–235. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.071.
  • Parajka, J., et al., 2013. Comparative assessment of predictions in ungauged basins-part 1: runoff-hydrograph studies. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17 (5), 1783–1795. doi:10.5194/hess-17-1783-2013.
  • Razavi, T. and Coulibaly, P., 2013. Streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: review of regionalization methods. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 18 (8), 958–975. doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000690.
  • Salinas, J.L., et al., 2013. Comparative assessment of predictions in ungauged basins-part 2: flood and low flow studies. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17 (7), 2637–2652. doi:10.5194/hess-17-2637-2013.
  • She, Y., et al., 2009. Athabasca River ice jam formation and release events in 2006 and 2007. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 55 (2), 249–261. Elsevier B.V. doi:10.1016/j.coldregions.2008.02.004.
  • She, Y. and Hicks, F., 2006. Modeling ice jam release waves with consideration for ice effects. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 45 (3), 137–147. doi:10.1016/j.coldregions.2006.05.004.
  • Singh, L., et al., 2022. Streamflow regionalisation of an ungauged catchment with machine learning approaches. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 67 (6), 886–897. doi:10.1080/02626667.2022.2049271.
  • Sivapalan, M., 2003. Prediction in ungauged basins: a grand challenge for theoretical hydrology. Hydrological Processes, 17 (15), 3163–3170. doi:10.1002/hyp.5155.
  • Sivapalan, M., et al., 2003. IAHS decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), 2003-2012: shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48 (6), 857–880. doi:10.1623/hysj.48.6.857.51421.
  • Taggart, J., 1995. The Peace River natural flow and regulated flow scenarios-daily flow data report. In: Surface Water Assessment Branch, Alberta Environmental Protection. Edmonton, AB.
  • Tellman, B., et al., 2021. Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods. Nature, 596 (7870), 80–86. doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03695-w.
  • Thériault, I., Saucet, J.-P., and Taha, W., 2010. Validation of the Mike-Ice model simulating river flows in presence of ice and forecast of changes to the ice regime of the Romaine river due to hydroelectric project. In: Proceedings of the 20th IAHR International Symposium on Ice. Lahti, Finland, 14–17.
  • Timalsina, N.P., Alfredsen, K.T., and Killingtveit, Å., 2015. Impact of climate change on ice regime in a river regulated for hydropower 1. The Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 42 (9), 634–644. doi:10.1139/cjce-2014-0261.
  • Trillium Engineering and Hydrographics, 1997. Ice formation and breakup at the town of Peace River: a study of regulated conditions, 1969–94. Edmonton, Alta: Trillium Engineering and Hydrographics Inc., Report No. 380.
  • Turcotte, B., Burrell, B.C., and Beltaos, S., 2019. The impact of climate change on breakup ice jams in Canada : state of knowledge and research approaches.
  • Turcotte, B. and Rainville, F., 2022. A new winter discharge estimation procedure: Yukon proof of concept. In: 26th IAHR Int. Symp. Ice, Montréal, Canada.
  • Viglione, A., et al., 2013. Comparative assessment of predictions in ungauged basins - part 3: runoff signatures in Austria. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17 (6), 2263–2279. doi:10.5194/hess-17-2263-2013.
  • Winchell, M., et al., 2013. ArcSWAT interface for SWAT2012: user’s guide. In: Blackland Research Center, Texas AgriLife Research. College Station, 1–464.
  • Ye, Y. and She, Y., 2021. A systematic evaluation of criteria for river ice breakup initiation using River1D model and field data. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 189 (May), 103316. doi:10.1016/j.coldregions.2021.103316.
  • Zelelew, M.B. and Alfredsen, K., 2014. Use of cokriging and map correlation to study hydrological response patterns and select reference stream gauges for ungauged catchments. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19 (2), 388–406. doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000803.
  • Zhang, L., et al., 2017. Stream flow simulation and verification in ungauged zones by coupling hydrological and hydrodynamic models: a case study of the Poyang Lake ungauged zone. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21 (11), 5847–5861. doi:10.5194/hess-21-5847-2017.
  • Zhang, Y. and Chiew, F.H.S., 2009. Relative merits of different methods for runoff predictions in ungauged catchments. Water Resources Research, 45 (7). doi:10.1029/2008WR007504.