379
Views
24
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Prior distribution elicitation for generalized linear and piecewise-linear models

, , &
Pages 59-75 | Received 07 Jan 2012, Accepted 25 Sep 2012, Published online: 24 Oct 2012

References

  • Al-Awadhi , S. A. and Garthwaite , P. H. 2006 . Quantifying expert opinion for modelling fauna habitat distributions . Comput. Statist. , 21 : 121 – 140 . (doi:10.1007/s00180-006-0255-x)
  • Bedrick , E. J. , Christensen , R. and Johnson , W. 1996 . A new perspective on priors for generalized linear models . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. , 91 : 1450 – 1460 . (doi:10.1080/01621459.1996.10476713)
  • Chaloner , K. 1996 . “ The elicitation of prior distributions ” . In Case Studies in Bayesian Biostatistics , Edited by: Berry , D. and Stangl , D. 141 – 156 . New York : Marcel Dekker .
  • Chen , M.-H. , Ibrahim , J. G. and Yiannoutsos , C. 1999 . Prior elicitation, variable selection and Bayesian computation for logistic regression models . J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B , 61 : 223 – 242 . (doi:10.1111/1467-9868.00173)
  • Chu , N. , Kadane , J. B. and Davidson , C. I. 2010 . Using statistical regressions to identify factors influencing PM2.5 concentrations: The Pittsburgh supersite as a case study . Aerosol Sci. Technol. , 44 : 766 – 774 . (doi:10.1080/02786826.2010.490798)
  • Cooke , R. M. 1991 . Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science , Oxford : Oxford University Press .
  • Craig , P. S. , Goldstein , M. , Seheult , A. H. and Smith , J. A. 1998 . Constructing partial prior specifications for models of complex physical systems . Statistician , 47 : 37 – 53 .
  • Czitrom , V. 1999 . One-factor-at-a-time versus designed experiments . Amer. Statist. , 53 : 126 – 131 .
  • Denham , R. and Mengersen , K. 2007 . Geographically assisted expert elicitation for species’ distribution models . Bayesian Anal. , 2 : 99 – 136 . (doi:10.1214/07-BA205)
  • F.G. Elfadaly, Elicitation of subjective probability distributions, Ph.D. thesis, Open University, UK, 2012.
  • F. Elfadaly and P.H. Garthwaite, Eliciting a prior distribution for the error variance in normal linear models, Tech. Rep. 11/07, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Open University, UK, 2011. Available at http://statistics.open.ac.uk.
  • P.H. Garthwaite, Quantifying expert opinion for modelling habitat distributions, Sustainable Forest Management Tech. Rep. 1998/02, Department of Natural Resources Queensland, 1998, pp. 13–25.
  • Garthwaite , P. H. , Chilcott , J. B. , Jenkinson , D. J. and Tappenden , P. 2008 . Use of expert knowledge in evaluating costs and benefits of alternative service provisions: A case study . Int. J. Technol. Assess. Health Care , 24 : 350 – 357 . (doi:10.1017/S026646230808046X)
  • Garthwaite , P. H. and Dickey , J. M. 1985 . Double- and single-bisection methods for subjective probability assessment in a location-scale family . J. Econometrics , 29 : 149 – 163 . (doi:10.1016/0304-4076(85)90036-3)
  • Garthwaite , P. H. and Dickey , J. M. 1988 . Quantifying expert opinion in linear regression problems . J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B , 50 : 462 – 474 .
  • Garthwaite , P. H. and Dickey , J. M. 1992 . Elicitation of prior distributions for variable selection problems in regression . Ann. Statist. , 20 : 1697 – 1719 . (doi:10.1214/aos/1176348886)
  • Garthwaite , P. H. , Kadane , J. B. and O'Hagan , A. 2005 . Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. , 100 : 680 – 701 . (doi:10.1198/016214505000000105)
  • Huber , G. P. 1974 . Methods of quantifying subjective probabilities and multi-attribute utilities . Decis. Sci. , 5 : 430 – 458 . (doi:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1974.tb00630.x)
  • Kadane , J. B. , Dickey , J. M. , Winkler , R. L. , Smith , W. S. and Peters , S. C. 1980 . Interactive elicitation of opinion for a normal linear model . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. , 75 : 845 – 854 . (doi:10.1080/01621459.1980.10477562)
  • Kadane , J. B. and Wolfson , L. J. 1998 . Experiences in elicitation . Statistician , 47 : 3 – 19 .
  • M. Kynn, Eliciting expert knowledge for Bayesian logistic regression in species habitat modelling, Ph.D. thesis, School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, 2004.
  • Lichtenstein , S. , Fischhoff , B. and Phillips , L. D. 1982 . “ Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 ” . In Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , Edited by: Kahneman , D. , Slovic , P. and Tversky , A. 306 – 334 . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
  • McCullagh , P. and Nelder , J. A. 1989 . Generalised Linear Models , 2 , London : Chapman and Hall .
  • O'Hagan , A. 1998 . Eliciting expert beliefs in substantial practical applications . Statistician , 47 : 21 – 35 .
  • O'Hagan , A. , Buck , C. E. , Daneshkhah , A. , Eiser , J. R. , Garthwaite , P. H. , Jenkinson , D. J. , Oakley , J. E. and Rakow , T. 2006 . Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Expert Probabilities , Chichester : Wiley .
  • Oman , S. D. 1985 . Specifying a prior distribution in structured regression problems . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. , 80 : 190 – 195 . (doi:10.1080/01621459.1985.10477159)
  • P. Trueman, K. Lowson, M. Bending, M. Ganderton, S. Chaplin, and S. Wright, Bowel cancer services: Costs and benefits, Final Report to the Department of Health 2007, 2008. Available at http://www.shef.ac.uk/scharr/sections/heds/modelling/colorectal-cancers.html.
  • Tsutakawa , R. K. 1984 . Estimation of two-parameter logistic item response curves . J. Educ. Statist. , 9 : 263 – 276 . (doi:10.2307/1164741)

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.