389
Views
1
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

The dynamics of surprise: The defender's perspective

Pages 113-144 | Published online: 02 Jan 2008

Notes

  • Ben‐Zvi , Abraham . 1990 . ‘Intention, Capability and Surprise: A Comparative Analysis . Journal of Strategic Studies , 13 ( 4 ) December : 19 – 40 .
  • 1990 . ‘Between Warning and Response: The Case of the Yom Kippur War’ . Intemational Joumal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence , 4 ( 2 ) Spring : 227 – 42 .
  • 1995 . ‘Perception, Misperception and Surprise in the Yom Kippur War: A Look at the New Evidence’ . Journal of Conflict Studies , 15 ( 2 ) February : 5 – 29 .
  • idem . 1997 . “ ‘Threat Perception and Surprise: In Search of the Intervening Variable’ ” . In Crisis, Conflict, and War , Edited by: Harvey , Frank and Mor , Ben D. NY : Macmillan .
  • Wohlstetter , Roberta . 1962 . Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision , 394 Stanford UP .
  • Cohen , Eliot A. and Gooch , John . 1990 . Military Misfortunes: The Anatomy of Failure in War , 40 NY : Free Press .
  • Jervis , Robert . 1985 . “ ‘Perceiving and Coping with Threat’ ” . In Psychology and Deterrence , Edited by: Lebow , Richard Ned and Stein , Janice Gross . 18 Baltimore, MD : Johns Hopkins UP .
  • Vertzberger , Yaacov Y. 1990 . The World in Their Minds: Information Processing, Cognition, and Perception in Foreign Policy Decisionmaking , 57 Stanford UP .
  • Jervis , Robert . 1976 . Perception and Misperception in International Politics , 187 – 90 . Princeton UP .
  • Kam , Ephraim . 1988 . Surprise Attack The Victim's Perspective , 89 Cambridge, MA : Harvard UP .
  • Vertzberger . World in Their Minds , 57 – 8 . (note 3)
  • Levite , Ariel . 1987 . Intelligence and Strategic Surprises , 18 NY : Columbia UP .
  • George , Alexander L. and Smoke , Richard . 1974 . Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice , 574 NY : Columbia UP .
  • Jervis . “ ‘Coping with Threat’ ” . 24 – 7 . (note 3)
  • Lebow , Richard Ned . 1981 . Between Peace and War. The Nature of International Crisis , 57 – 97 . Baltimore, MD : Johns Hopkins UP .
  • Betts , Richard K. 1982 . Surprise Attack Lessons for Defense Planning , Washington DC : Brookings .
  • George , Alexander L. 1979 . “ ‘The Causal Nexus Between Cognitive Beliefs and Decision‐Making Behavior: The “Operational Code” Belief system’ ” . In Psychological Models in International Politics , Edited by: Falkowski , Lawrence S. 109 Boulder, CO : Westview Press .
  • Levite . Intelligence and Strategic Surprises , 151 158 (note 4)
  • Shlaim , Avi . 1976 . ‘Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Yom Kippur War’ . World Politics , 28 ( 3 ) April : 362
  • Levy , Jack S. 1993 . ‘Misperception and the Causes of War: Theoretical Linkages and Analytical Problems’ . World Politics , 36 ( 1 ) October : 82 92
  • Levy . “ ‘Misperception and the Causes of War’ ” . 82 (note 10)
  • Jervis . Perception and Misperception , 50 (note 4)
  • George and Smoke . Deterrence in American Foreign Policy , 582 – 3 . (note 5)
  • Kam . Surprise Attack , 60 (note 5)
  • Maoz , Zeev . 1990 . Paradoxes of War On the Art of National Self‐Entrapment , 84 Boston : Unwin Hyman .
  • George , Alexander L. 1979 . “ ‘Case Studies and Theory Development: The Method of Structured, Focused Comparison’ ” . In Diplomacy: New Approaches in History, Theory, and Policy , Edited by: Lauren , Paul Gordon . 44 – 5 . NY : Free Press .
  • George , Alexander L. and Simons , William E. 1994 . “ ‘Findings and Conclusions’ ” . In The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy , 2nd ed. , 283 Boulder, CO : Westview Press .
  • Utley , Jonathan G. 1985 . Going to Warwith Japan, 1937–1941 , 173 – 5 . Knoxville : U. of Tennessee Press .
  • Mullik , B.N. 1971 . The Chinese Betrayal , 329 – 30 . Bombay : Allied Publishers .
  • Orme , John . 1987 . ‘Deterrence Failures: A Second Look’ . International Security , 11 ( 4 ) Spring : 116 – 18 .
  • Hoffmann , Steven A. 1972 . ‘Anticipation, Disaster and Victory: India 1962–1972’ . Asian Survey , 12 November : 967 – 8 .
  • Vertzberger , Yaacov V.I. 1984 . Misper‐ceptions in Foreign Policymaking: The Sino‐Indian Conflict, 1959–1962 , 195 – 201 . Boulder, CO : Westview Press .
  • Ben‐Zvi , Abraham . 1976 . ‘Hindsight and Foresight: A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of Surprise Attacks’ . World Politics , 28 ( 3 ) April : 386
  • Handel , Michael I. 1984 . ‘Intelligence and the Problem of Strategic Surprise’ . Journal of Strategic Studies , 7 ( 3 ) Spring : 239
  • Levite . Intelligence and Strategic Surprises , 27 (note 4)
  • Kahn , David . 1984 . “ ‘The United States Views Germany and Japan in 1941’ ” . In Knowing One's Enemies: Intelligence Assessment Before the Two World Wars , Edited by: May , Ernest R. 484 – 5 . Princeton UP .
  • Levite . Intelligence and Strategic Surprises , 70 (note 4)
  • Weigley , Russell F. , Borg , Dorothy and Okamoto , Shumpei , eds. 1973 . “ ‘The Role of the War Department and the Army’ ” . In Pearl Harbor as History: Japanese‐American Relations, 1931–1941 , 185 NY : Columbia UP .
  • Wohlstetter . Pearl Harbor , 193 (note 2)
  • Sagan , Scott D. “ ‘From Deterrence to Coercion to War: The Road to Pearl Harbor’ ” . In The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy 81 (note 19)
  • Ben‐Zvi . “ ‘Hindsight and Foresight’ ” . 389 (note 22)
  • 1946 . Pearl Harbor Hearings: Hearings Before the Joint Committee on the Investigation of the Pearl Harbor Attack , 1406 Washington DC : US Government Printing Office . part 14
  • Wohlstetter . Pearl Harbor , 200 (note 2)
  • Morgenthau , Henry M. Jr. 2–3 October 1940 . The Morgenthau Diary, 1933–1945 , 2–3 October , Hyde Park, NY : Franklin D. Roosevelt Library . Book 318
  • Utley . Going to War with Japan , 162 – 75 . (note 19)
  • Farnham , Barbara . 1992 . ‘Roosevelt and the Munich Crisis: Insights from Prospect Theory’ . Political Psychology , 13 ( 2 ) : 205 – 35 .
  • 1973 . Henry Lewis Stimson Diaries , New Haven, CT : Yale University Library: Manuscripts and Archives .
  • Kahn . “ ‘The United States Views Germany and Japan’ ” . 477 (note 25)
  • Pratt , Fletcher . 1939 . Sea Power and Today's War , 178 NY : Harrison‐Hilton .
  • Mahnken , Thomas G. 1996 . ‘Gazing at the Sun: The Office of Naval Intelligence and Japanese Naval Innovation, 1918–1941’ . Intelligence and National Security , 11 ( 3 ) July : 424
  • Weigley . “ ‘Role of the War Department’ ” . 182 – 3 . 186 (note 26)
  • Sagan . “ ‘From Deterrence to Coercion’ ” . 79 (note 27)
  • Stimson , Henry L. and Bundy , McGeorge . 1947 . On Active Service in Peace and War , 388 – 9 . NY : Harper .
  • Weigley . “ ‘Role of the War Department’ ” . 183 (note 26)
  • Levite . Intelligence and Strategic Surprises , 88 – 9 . (note 4)
  • Mahnken . “ ‘Office of Naval Intelligence’ ” . 431 (note 40)
  • Handel , Michael I. 1989 . War, Strategy, and Intelligence , 138 – 9 . London : Frank Cass .
  • Betts . Surprise Attack , 112 (note 7)
  • Weigley . “ ‘The Role of the War Department’ ” . 167 – 8 .
  • Morgan , Patrick . 1984 . “ ‘Examples of Strategic Surprise in the Far East’ ” . In Strategic Military Surprise: Incentives and Opportunities , Edited by: Knorr , Klaus and Morgan , Patrick . 55 New Brunswick : Transaction Books .
  • Lebow . Between Peace and War , 165 – 6 . (note 6)
  • Ben‐Zvi . Intention, Capability, and Surprise , 26 – 31 . (note 1)
  • Hoffmann . “ ‘Anticipation, Disaster, and Victory’ ” . 962 – 3 . (note 21)
  • Lebow . Between Peace and War , 189 (note 6)
  • Gupta , Karunakar . 1969 . India in World Politics: A Period of Transition , 164 – 5 . Calcutta : Scientific Books .
  • Lebow . Between Peace and War , 190 (note 6)
  • Mullik . Chinese Betrayal , 300 (note 20)
  • Hoffmann . “ ‘Anticipation, Disaster, and Victory’ ” . 967 (note 21)
  • Mullik . The Chinese Betrayal , 329 – 30 . (note 20)
  • Hoffmann . “ ‘Anticipation, Disaster, and Victory’ ” . 968
  • Vertzberger . Misperceptions in Foreign Policymaking , 201 (note 21)
  • Mullik . Chinese Betrayal , 349 (note 20)
  • Jervis , Robert . 1970 . The Logic of Images in International Relations , 18 – 40 . Princeton UP .
  • Lebow . Between Peace and War , 221 (note 6)
  • Vertzberger . Misperceptions in Foreign Policymaking , 149 (note 21)
  • Whiting , Alan S. 1975 . The Chinese Calculus of Deterrence: India and Indochina , 55 – 136 . Ann Arbor : U. of Michigan Press .
  • Vertzberger . Misperceptions in Foreign Policymaking , 200 (note 21)
  • Lebow . Between Peace and War , 190 (note 6)
  • Maxwell , Neville . 1972 . India's China War , 247 – 50 . Garden City, NJ : Doubleday .
  • Vertzberger . Misperceptions in Foreign Policymaking , 200 – 1 .
  • Whiting . Chinese Calculus of Deterrence , 20 (note 65)
  • Orme . “ ‘Deterrence Failures’ ” . 117 (note 21)
  • Whiting . Chinese Calculus of Deterrence , 23 (note 65)
  • Orme . “ ‘Deterrence Failures’ ” . 117 (note 21)
  • Whiting . Chinese Calculus of Deterrence , 48 (note 65)
  • Maxwell . India's China War , 240 – 2 . (note 67)
  • Vertzberger . Misperceptions in Foreign Policymaking , 133 (note 21)
  • Lebow . Between Peace and War , 191 (note 6)
  • Hoffmann . “ ‘Anticipation, Disaster, and Victory’ ” . 965 (note 21)
  • 1995 . The Agranat Commission Supplementary Report: The Yom Kippur War , Vol. 1 , 173 Givatayira : IDF Archives, declassified in .
  • Bar‐Joseph , Uri . 1995 . ‘Israel's Intelligence Failure of 1973: New Evidence, A New Interpretation, and Theoretical Implications’ . Security Studies , 4 ( 3 ) Spring : 590
  • Handel , Michael I. 1976 . Perception, Deception and Surprise: The Case of the Yom Kippur War , 32 Jerusalem : Jerusalem Papers on Peace Problems, the Hebrew U. of Jerusalem .
  • The Agranat Commission Report Vol. 1 , 18 – 21 .
  • Braun , Arie . 1992 . Moshe Dayan and the Yom Kippur War (Hebrew) , Tel Aviv : Edanim .
  • Bar‐Joseph . “ ‘Israel's Intelligence Failure’ ” . 595 (note 80)
  • Stein , Janice Gross . ‘Calculation, Miscalculation, and Conventional Deterrence II: The View from Jerusalem’ . Psychology and Deterrence , 74 (note 3)
  • Agranat Commission Report Vol. 1 , 21 – 9 .
  • Bar‐Joseph . “ ‘Israel's Intelligence Failure’ ” . 596 – 7 . (note 80)
  • Braun . Dayan and the Yom Kippur War , 70 (note 82)
  • Zeira , Eli . 1993 . The October 73 War: Myth Against Reality (Hebrew) , 160 Tel Aviv : Yedioth Ahronot .
  • Vertzberger . World in Their Minds , 66 (note 3)
  • Maoz . Paradoxes of War , 92 (note 16)
  • Stein . “ ‘Calculation, Miscalculation, and Conventional Deterrence II’ ” . 79 – 80 .
  • Stein , Janice Gross . ‘Calculation, Miscalculation and Deterrence I: The View from Cairo’ . Psychology and Deterrence , 46 (note 3)
  • Handel , Michael I. ‘Crisis and Surprise in Three Arab‐Israeli Wars’ . Strategic Military Surprise , 138 (note 50)
  • Lieberman , Elli . Oct. 1995 . Deterrence Theory: Success or Failure in Arab‐Israeli Wars? , McNair Paper 45 Oct. , 49 – 50 . Washington DC : Inst. for National Strategic Studies, NDU .
  • Lieberman , Elli . 1995 . ‘What Makes Deterrence Work? Lessons from the Egyptian‐Israeli Enduring Rivalry’ . Security Studies , 4 ( 4 ) Spring : 881 – 3 .
  • Betts . Surprise Attack , 71 (note 7)
  • Jervis , Robert . 1968 . ‘Hypotheses on Misperception’ . World Politics , 20 ( 3 ) April : 465 – 6 .
  • Ganguly , Sumit . 1990 . ‘Deterrence Failure Revisited: The Indo‐Pakistani War of 1965’ . Journal of Strategic Studies , 13 ( 4 ) December : 76 – 80 .
  • Sheffy , Yigal . 1990 . ‘Unconcern at Dawn, Surprise at Sunset: Egyptian Intelligence Appreciation Before the Sinai Campaign, 1956’ . Intelligence and National Security , 5 ( 3 ) July : 7 – 56 .

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.