Estimating survival scenarios in advanced or metastatic gastric and oesophageal adenocarcinoma: a systematic review of randomized-controlled trials

References

• Daugherty CK, Hlubocky FJ. What are terminally ill cancer patients told about their expected deaths? A study of cancer physicians’ self-reports of prognosis disclosure. J Clin Oncol. 2008;26(36):5988–5993. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2008.17.2221.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gordon EJ, Daugherty CK. ‘Hitting you over the head’: oncologists’ disclosure of prognosis to advanced cancer patients. Bioethics. 2003;17(2):142–168. doi: 10.1111/1467-8519.00330.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Enzinger AC, Zhang B, Schrag D, et al. Outcomes of prognostic disclosure: associations with prognostic understanding, distress, and relationship with physician among patients with advanced cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2015;33(32):3809–3816. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2015.61.9239.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nahm SH, Stockler MR, Martin AJ, et al. Using three scenarios to explain life expectancy in advanced cancer: attitudes of patients, family members, and other healthcare professionals. Support Care Cancer. 2022;30(9):7763–7772. doi: 10.1007/s00520-022-07167-3.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vasista A, Stockler MR, Martin A, et al. Communicating prognostic information: what do oncologists think patients with incurable cancer should be told? Intern Med J. 2020;50(12):1492–1499. doi: 10.1111/imj.14739.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kiely BE, Stockler MR, Tattersall MH. Thinking and talking about life expectancy in incurable cancer. Semin Oncol. 2011;38(3):380–385. doi: 10.1053/j.seminoncol.2011.03.007.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stockler MR, Tattersall MHN, Boyer MJ, et al. Disarming the guarded prognosis: predicting survival in newly referred patients with incurable cancer. Br J Cancer. 2006;94(2):208–212. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6602908.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kiely BE, Alam M, Blinman P, et al. Estimating typical, best-case and worst-case life expectancy scenarios for patients starting chemotherapy for advanced non-small-cell lung cancer: a systematic review of contemporary randomized trials. Lung Cancer. 2012;77(3):537–544. doi: 10.1016/j.lungcan.2012.04.017.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kiely BE, Soon YY, Tattersall MHN, et al. How long have I got? Estimating typical, best-case, and worst-case scenarios for patients starting first-line chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer: a systematic review of recent randomized trials. J Clin Oncol. 2011;29(4):456–463. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2010.30.2174.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vasista A, Stockler MR, West T, et al. More than just the median: calculating survival times for patients with HER2 positive, metastatic breast cancer using data from recent randomised trials. Breast. 2017;31:99–104. doi: 10.1016/j.breast.2016.10.007.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• West TA, Kiely BE, Stockler MR. Estimating scenarios for survival time in men starting systemic therapies for castration-resistant prostate cancer: a systematic review of randomised trials. Eur J Cancer. 2014;50(11):1916–1924. doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2014.04.004.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• automeris.io, WebPlotDigitizer. 2023.WebPlotDigitizer. Extract data from plots, i., and maps.
   Google Scholar
• Christakis NA, Lamont EB. Extent and determinants of error in physicians’ prognoses in terminally ill patients: prospective cohort study. West J Med. 2000;172(5):310–313. doi: 10.1136/ewjm.172.5.310.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Ajani JA, Abramov M, Bondarenko I, et al. A phase III trial comparing oral S-1/cisplatin and intravenous 5-fluorouracil/cisplatin in patients with untreated diffuse gastric cancer. Ann Oncol. 2017;28(9):2142–2148. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdx275.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ajani JA, Buyse M, Lichinitser M, et al. Combination of cisplatin/S-1 in the treatment of patients with advanced gastric or gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma: results of noninferiority and safety analyses compared with cisplatin/5-fluorouracil in the First-Line Advanced Gastric Cancer Study. Eur J Cancer. 2013;49(17):3616–3624. doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2013.07.003.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Al-Batran S-E, Hartmann JT, Hofheinz R, et al. Biweekly fluorouracil, leucovorin, oxaliplatin, and docetaxel (FLOT) for patients with metastatic adenocarcinoma of the stomach or esophagogastric junction: a phase II trial of the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Internistische Onkologie. Ann Oncol. 2008;19(11):1882–1887. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdn403.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Catenacci DVT, Tebbutt NC, Davidenko I, et al. Rilotumumab plus epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine as first-line therapy in advanced MET-positive gastric or gastro-oesophageal junction cancer (RILOMET-1): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. Lancet Oncol. 2017;18(11):1467–1482. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(17)30566-1.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cunningham D, Starling N, Rao S, et al. Capecitabine and oxaliplatin for advanced esophagogastric cancer. N Engl J Med. 2008;358(1):36–46. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa073149.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dank M, Zaluski J, Barone C, et al. Randomized phase III study comparing irinotecan combined with 5-fluorouracil and folinic acid to cisplatin combined with 5-fluorouracil in chemotherapy naive patients with advanced adenocarcinoma of the stomach or esophagogastric junction. Ann Oncol. 2008;19(8):1450–1457. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdn166.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fuchs CS, Shitara K, Di Bartolomeo M, et al. Ramucirumab with cisplatin and fluoropyrimidine as first-line therapy in patients with metastatic gastric or junctional adenocarcinoma (RAINFALL): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. Lancet Oncol. 2019;20(3):420–435. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(18)30791-5.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Janjigian YY, Shitara K, Moehler M, et al. First-line nivolumab plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone for advanced gastric, gastro-oesophageal junction, and oesophageal adenocarcinoma (CheckMate 649): a randomised, open-label, phase 3 trial. Lancet. 2021;398(10294):27–40. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00797-2.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kang Y-K, Chen L-T, Ryu M-H, et al. Nivolumab plus chemotherapy versus placebo plus chemotherapy in patients with HER2-negative, untreated, unresectable advanced or recurrent gastric or gastro-oesophageal junction cancer (ATTRACTION-4): a randomised, multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. Lancet Oncol. 2022;23(2):234–247. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(21)00692-6.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kang Y-K, Chin K, Chung HC, et al. S-1 plus leucovorin and oxaliplatin versus S-1 plus cisplatin as first-line therapy in patients with advanced gastric cancer (SOLAR): a randomised, open-label, phase 3 trial. Lancet Oncol. 2020;21(8):1045–1056. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(20)30315-6.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kang Y-K, Kang W-K, Shin D-B, et al. Capecitabine/cisplatin versus 5-fluorouracil/cisplatin as first-line therapy in patients with advanced gastric cancer: a randomised phase III noninferiority trial. Ann Oncol. 2009;20(4):666–673. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdn717.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Koizumi W, Kim YH, Fujii M, et al. Addition of docetaxel to S-1 without platinum prolongs survival of patients with advanced gastric cancer: a randomized study (START). J Cancer Res Clin Oncol. 2014;140(2):319–328. doi: 10.1007/s00432-013-1563-5.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Koizumi W, Narahara H, Hara T, et al. S-1 plus cisplatin versus S-1 alone for first-line treatment of advanced gastric cancer (SPIRITS trial): a phase III trial. Lancet Oncol. 2008;9(3):215–221. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(08)70035-4.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lordick F, Bodoky G, Chung H, et al. Cetuximab in combination with capecitabine and cisplatin as first-line treatment in advanced gastric cancer: randomized controlled phase III expand study. Ann Oncol. 2012;23(9):ixe11. doi: 10.1016/S0923-7534(20)34321-0.
   Google Scholar
• Lu Z, Zhang X, Liu W, et al. A multicenter, randomized trial comparing efficacy and safety of paclitaxel/capecitabine and cisplatin/capecitabine in advanced gastric cancer. Gastric Cancer. 2018;21(5):782–791. doi: 10.1007/s10120-018-0809-y.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moehler M, Dvorkin M, Boku N, et al. Phase III trial of avelumab maintenance after first-line induction chemotherapy versus continuation of chemotherapy in patients with gastric cancers: results from JAVELIN Gastric 100. J Clin Oncol. 2021;39(9):966–977. doi: 10.1200/JCO.20.00892.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Narahara H, Iishi H, Imamura H, et al. Randomized phase III study comparing the efficacy and safety of irinotecan plus S-1 with S-1 alone as first-line treatment for advanced gastric cancer (study GC0301/TOP-002). Gastric Cancer. 2011;14(1):72–80. doi: 10.1007/s10120-011-0009-5.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nishikawa K, Fujitani K, Inagaki H, et al. Randomised phase III trial of second-line irinotecan plus cisplatin versus irinotecan alone in patients with advanced gastric cancer refractory to S-1 monotherapy: TRICS trial. Eur J Cancer. 2015;51(7):808–816. doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2015.02.009.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ohtsu A, Shah MA, Van Cutsem E, et al. Bevacizumab in combination with chemotherapy as first-line therapy in advanced gastric cancer: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase III study. J Clin Oncol. 2011;29(30):3968–3976. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2011.36.2236.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shah MA, Bang Y-J, Lordick F, et al. Effect of fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin with or without onartuzumab in HER2-negative, MET-positive gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma: the METGastric randomized clinical trial. JAMA Oncol. 2017;3(5):620–627. doi: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2016.5580.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shah MA, Bodoky G, Starodub A, et al. Phase III study to evaluate efficacy and safety of andecaliximab with mFOLFOX6 as first-line treatment in patients with advanced gastric or GEJ adenocarcinoma (GAMMA-1). J Clin Oncol. 2021;39(9):990–1000. doi: 10.1200/JCO.20.02755.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shen L, Li J, Xu J, et al. Bevacizumab plus capecitabine and cisplatin in Chinese patients with inoperable locally advanced or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer: randomized, double-blind, phase III study (AVATAR study). Gastric Cancer. 2015;18(1):168–176. doi: 10.1007/s10120-014-0351-5.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shirao K, Boku N, Yamada Y, et al. Randomized phase III study of 5-fluorouracil continuous infusion vs. sequential methotrexate and 5-fluorouracil therapy in far advanced gastric cancer with peritoneal metastasis (JCOG0106). Jpn J Clin Oncol. 2013;43(10):972–980. doi: 10.1093/jjco/hyt114.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shitara K, Van Cutsem E, Bang Y-J, et al. Efficacy and safety of pembrolizumab or pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy vs chemotherapy alone for patients with first-line, advanced gastric cancer: the KEYNOTE-062 phase 3 randomized clinical trial. JAMA Oncol. 2020;6(10):1571–1580. doi: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2020.3370.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Van Cutsem E, Moiseyenko VM, Tjulandin S, et al. Phase III study of docetaxel and cisplatin plus fluorouracil compared with cisplatin and fluorouracil as first-line therapy for advanced gastric cancer: a report of the V25 study group. J Clin Oncol. 2006;24(31):4991–4997. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2006.06.8429.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Waddell T, Chau I, Cunningham D, et al. Epirubicin, oxaliplatin, and capecitabine with or without panitumumab for patients with previously untreated advanced oesophagogastric cancer (REAL3): a randomised, open-label phase 3 trial. Lancet Oncol. 2013;14(6):481–489. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(13)70096-2.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang J, Xu R, Li J, et al. Randomized multicenter phase III study of a modified docetaxel and cisplatin plus fluorouracil regimen compared with cisplatin and fluorouracil as first-line therapy for advanced or locally recurrent gastric cancer. Gastric Cancer. 2016;19(1):234–244. doi: 10.1007/s10120-015-0457-4.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yamada Y, Higuchi K, Nishikawa K, et al. Phase III study comparing oxaliplatin plus S-1 with cisplatin plus S-1 in chemotherapy-naive patients with advanced gastric cancer. Ann Oncol. 2015;26(1):141–148. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdu472.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yoshino S, Nishikawa K, Morita S, et al. Randomised phase III study of S-1 alone versus S-1 plus lentinan for unresectable or recurrent gastric cancer (JFMC36-0701). Eur J Cancer. 2016;65:164–171. (doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2016.06.012.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhu X-D, Huang M-Z, Wang Y-S, et al. XELOX doublet regimen versus EOX triplet regimen as first-line treatment for advanced gastric cancer: an open-labeled, multicenter, randomized, prospective phase III trial (EXELOX). Cancer Commun (Lond). 2022;42(4):314–326. p. doi: 10.1002/cac2.12278.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bang Y-J, Xu R-H, Chin K, et al. Olaparib in combination with paclitaxel in patients with advanced gastric cancer who have progressed following first-line therapy (GOLD): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. Lancet Oncol. 2017;18(12):1637–1651. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(17)30682-4.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bang Y-J, Ruiz EY, Van Cutsem E, et al. Phase III, randomised trial of avelumab versus physician’s choice of chemotherapy as third-line treatment of patients with advanced gastric or gastro-oesophageal junction cancer: primary analysis of JAVELIN Gastric 300. Ann Oncol. 2018;29(10):2052–2060. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdy264.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boku N, Satoh T, Ryu M-H, et al. Nivolumab in previously treated advanced gastric cancer (ATTRACTION-2): 3-year update and outcome of treatment beyond progression with nivolumab. Gastric Cancer. 2021;24(4):946–958. doi: 10.1007/s10120-021-01173-w.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fuchs CS, Tomasek J, Yong CJ, et al. Ramucirumab monotherapy for previously treated advanced gastric or gastro-oesophageal junction adenocarcinoma (REGARD): an international, randomised, multicentre, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. Lancet. 2014;383(9911):31–39. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61719-5.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hironaka S, Ueda S, Yasui H, et al. Randomized, open-label, phase III study comparing irinotecan with paclitaxel in patients with advanced gastric cancer without severe peritoneal metastasis after failure of prior combination chemotherapy using fluoropyrimidine plus platinum: WJOG 4007 trial. J Clin Oncol. 2013;31(35):4438–4444. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2012.48.5805.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kang Y-K, Ryu M-H, Park SH, et al. Efficacy and safety findings from DREAM: a phase III study of DHP107 (oral paclitaxel) versus i.v. paclitaxel in patients with advanced gastric cancer after failure of first-line chemotherapy. Ann Oncol. 2018;29(5):1220–1226. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdy055.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lorenzen S, Knorrenschild JR, Pauligk C, et al. Phase III randomized, double-blind study of paclitaxel with and without everolimus in patients with advanced gastric or esophagogastric junction carcinoma who have progressed after therapy with a fluoropyrimidine/platinum-containing regimen (RADPAC). Int J Cancer. 2020;147(9):2493–2502. doi: 10.1002/ijc.33025.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ohtsu A, Ajani JA, Bai Y-X, et al. Everolimus for previously treated advanced gastric cancer: results of the randomized, double-blind, phase III GRANITE-1 study. J Clin Oncol. 2013;31(31):3935–3943. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2012.48.3552.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Satoh T, Xu R-H, Chung HC, et al. Lapatinib plus paclitaxel versus paclitaxel alone in the second-line treatment of HER2-amplified advanced gastric cancer in Asian populations: TyTAN – a randomized, phase III study. J Clin Oncol. 2014;32(19):2039–2049. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2013.53.6136.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shah MA, Shitara K, Lordick F, et al. Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 study of paclitaxel ± napabucasin in pretreated advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma. Clin Cancer Res. 2022;28:OF1–OF9.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shitara K, Doi T, Dvorkin M, et al. Trifluridine/tipiracil versus placebo in patients with heavily pretreated metastatic gastric cancer (TAGS): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. Lancet Oncol. 2018;19(11):1437–1448. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(18)30739-3.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shitara K, Özgüroğlu M, Bang Y-J, et al. Pembrolizumab versus paclitaxel for previously treated, advanced gastric or gastro-oesophageal junction cancer (KEYNOTE-061): a randomised, open-label, controlled, phase 3 trial. Lancet. 2018;392(10142):123–133. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31257-1.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tanabe K, Fujii M, Nishikawa K, et al. Phase II/III study of second-line chemotherapy comparing irinotecan-alone with S-1 plus irinotecan in advanced gastric cancer refractory to first-line treatment with S-1 (JACCRO GC-05). Ann Oncol. 2015;26(9):1916–1922. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdv265.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wilke H, Muro K, Van Cutsem E, et al. Ramucirumab plus paclitaxel versus placebo plus paclitaxel in patients with previously treated advanced gastric or gastro-oesophageal junction adenocarcinoma (RAINBOW): a double-blind, randomised phase 3 trial. Lancet Oncol. 2014;15(11):1224–1235. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(14)70420-6.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chau I, Norman AR, Cunningham D, et al. Multivariate prognostic factor analysis in locally advanced and metastatic esophago-gastric cancer – pooled analysis from three multicenter, randomized, controlled trials using individual patient data. J Clin Oncol. 2004;22(12):2395–2403. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2004.08.154.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee J, Lim T, Uhm JE, et al. Prognostic model to predict survival following first-line chemotherapy in patients with metastatic gastric adenocarcinoma. Ann Oncol. 2007;18(5):886–891. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdl501.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hamers PAH, Elferink MAG, Stellato RK, et al. Informing metastatic colorectal cancer patients by quantifying multiple scenarios for survival time based on real-life data. Int J Cancer. 2021;148(2):296–306. doi: 10.1002/ijc.33200.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shitara K, Yatabe Y, Matsuo K, et al. Prognosis of patients with advanced gastric cancer by HER2 status and trastuzumab treatment. Gastric Cancer. 2013;16(2):261–267. doi: 10.1007/s10120-012-0179-9.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bang Y-J, Van Cutsem E, Feyereislova A, et al. Trastuzumab in combination with chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone for treatment of HER2-positive advanced gastric or gastro-oesophageal junction cancer (ToGA): a phase 3, open-label, randomised controlled trial. Lancet. 2010;376(9742):687–697. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)61121-X.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Innes S, Payne S. Advanced cancer patients’ prognostic information preferences: a review. Palliat Med. 2009;23(1):29–39. doi: 10.1177/0269216308098799.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hagerty RG, Butow PN, Ellis PA, et al. Cancer patient preferences for communication of prognosis in the metastatic setting. J Clin Oncol. 2004;22(9):1721–1730. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2004.04.095.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hagerty RG, Butow PN, Ellis PM, et al. Communicating prognosis in cancer care: a systematic review of the literature. Ann Oncol. 2005;16(7):1005–1053. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdi211.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hagerty RG, Butow PN, Ellis PM, et al. Communicating with realism and hope: incurable cancer patients’ views on the disclosure of prognosis. J Clin Oncol. 2005;23(6):1278–1288. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2005.11.138.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar