Jumping into the Fray: Alliances, Power, Institutions, and the Timing of Conflict Expansion

REFERENCES

• Allison , Paul D. 1984 . Event History Analysis , CA: Sage : Newbury Park .
   Google Scholar
• Altfeld , Michael F. and de Mesquita , Bruce Bueno . 1979 . Chosing Sides in War . International Studies Quarterly , 41 : 846 – 878 .
   Google Scholar
• Beck , Nathaniel . 1996 . “ Modelling Space and Time: The Event History Approach ” . In Research Strategies in the Social Sciences , Edited by: Scarbrough , E. and Tanenbaum , E. New York : Oxford University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Bennett , D. Scott . 1997 . Testing Alternative Models of Alliance Duration, 1816–1984 . American Journal of Political Science , 41 ( 3 ) : 846 – 878 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boulding , Kenneth E. 1963 . Towards a Pure Theory of Threat Systems . The American Economic Review , 53 ( 2 ) : 424 – 434 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bueno de Mesquita , Bruce , Koch , Michael T. and Siverson , Randolph . 2004 . Testing Competing Institutional Explanations for the Democratic Peace . Conflict Management and Peace Science , 21 ( 4 ) : 1 – 13 .
   Google Scholar
• Chan , Steve . 2003 . Extended Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait: Learning from Rationalist Explanations in International Relations . World Affairs , 166 ( 2 ) : 109 – 125 .
   Google Scholar
• Clark , David H. 2001 . Trading Butter for Guns: Domestic Imperatives for Foreign Policy Substitution . Journal of Conflict Resolution , 45 ( 5 ) : 636 – 660 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Croco , Sarah and Teo , Tze Kwang . 2005 . Assessing the Dyadic Approach to Interstate Conflict Processes: a.k.a. ‘Dangerous Dyad’ Years . Conflict Management and Peace Science , 22 : 5 – 18 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Findley , Michael G. and Teo , Tze Kwang . 2006 . Rethinking Third Party Interventions into Civil Wars: An Actor-Centric Approach . Journal of Politics , 68 ( 4 ) : 828 – 837 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gartner , Scott Sigmund and Siverson , Randolph M. 1996 . War Expansion and War Outcome . Journal of Conflict Resolution , 40 ( 1 ) : 4 – 15 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gent , Stephen . 2007 . Strange Bedfellows: Major Power Intervention in Civil Conflicts . Journal of Politics , 69 ( 4 )
   Google Scholar
• Gibler , Douglas M. 2000 . “ Why Some Cause War and Why Others Cause Peace ” . In What Do We Know about War? , Edited by: Vasquez , J. A. Lanham , MD : Rowman & Littlefield .
   Google Scholar
• Gibler , Douglas M. and Sarkees , Meredith Reid . 2004 . Measuring Alliances: the Correlates of War Formal Interstate Alliance Dataset, 1816–2000 . Journal of Peace Research , 41 ( 2 ) : 211 – 222 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hammarström , Mats and Heldt , Birger . 2002 . The Diffusion of Military Intervention: Testing a Network Position Approach . International Interactions , 28 ( 4 ) : 355 – 377 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Heldt , Birger and Hammarström , Mats . 2002 . The Diffusion of Military Intervention: Testing a Network Position Approach . International Interactions , 28 ( 4 ) : 355 – 377 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hermann , Margaret G. and Kegley , Charles W. Jr. 1995 . Rethinking Democracy and International Peace: Perspectives from Political Psychology . International Studies Quarterly , 39 ( 4 ) : 511 – 533 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huth , Paul K. 1988 . Extended Deterrence and the Outbreak of War . American Political Science Review , 82 ( 2 ) : 423 – 443 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kadera , Kelly M. 1998 . Transmission, Barriers, and Constraints: A Dynamic Model of the Spread of War . Journal of Conflict Resolution , 42 ( 3 ) : 367 – 87 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kim , Chae-Han . 1991 . Third-Party Participation in Wars . Journal of Conflict Resolution , 35 ( 4 ) : 659 – 677 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lake , Anthony . 1992 . Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War . American Political Science Review , 86 ( 1 ) : 24 – 37 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Levy , Jack S. 1982 . The Contagion of Great Power War Behavior, 1495–1975 . American Journal of Political Science , 26 ( 3 ) : 562 – 584 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Maoz , Zeev . 1996 . Domestic Sources of Global Change , Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press .
   Google Scholar
• Maoz, Zeev. Dyadic MID Dataset (version 2.0) 2005 [cited] http://psfaculty.ucdavis.edu/zmaoz/dyadmid.html
   Google Scholar
• Maoz , Zeev , Terris , Leslie G. , Kuperman , Ranan D. and Talmud , Ilan . 2007 . What Is the Enemy of My Enemy? Causes and Consequences of Imbalanced International Relations, 1816–2001 . Journal of Politics , 69 ( 1 ) : 100 – 115 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marshall, Monty G., and Keith Jaggers. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2002. Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland 2002 [cited] http://www. cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/polity/index.htm
   Google Scholar
• Morrow , James D. 1994 . Alliances, Credibility, and Peacetime Costs . Journal of Conflict Resolution , 38 : 270 – 297 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morrow , James D. 2000 . Alliances: Why Write Them Down? . Annual Review of Political Science , 3 : 63 – 83 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Most , Benjamin A. and Starr , Harvey . 1989 . Inquiry, Logic, and International Politics , Columbia : University of South Carolina Press .
   Google Scholar
• Palmer , Glenn . 1990 . Alliance Politics and Issue Areas: Determinants of Defense Spending . American Journal of Political Science , 34 ( 1 ) : 190 – 211 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Powell , Robert . 1993 . Guns, Butter, and Anarchy . The American Political Science Review , 87 ( 1 ) : 115 – 132 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Russett , Bruce M. , ed. 1969 . Refining Deterrence Theory: The Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor , Englewood Cliffs , NJ : Prentice Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Russett , Bruce M. and Starr , Harvey . 1981 . World Politics: The Menu for Choice , New York : Freeman .
   Google Scholar
• Signorino , Curtis S. and Ritter , Jeffrey M. 1999 . Tau-b or not Tau-b: Measuring the Similarity of Foreign Policy Positions . International Studies Quarterly , 43 : 115 – 144 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Singer , J. David , Bremer , Stuart and Stuckey , John . 1972 . “ Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820–1965 ” . In Peace, War, and Numbers , Edited by: Russett , B. M. Beverly Hills , CA : Sage .
   Google Scholar
• Siverson , Randolph and Emmons , Juliann . 1991 . Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices in the Twentieth Century . Journal of Conflict Resolution , 35 ( 2 ) : 285 – 306 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Siverson , Randolph and King , Gary . 1980 . Attributes of National Alliance Membership and War Participation: 1815–1965 . American Journal of Political Science , 24 ( 1 ) : 1 – 15 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Siverson , Randolph M. and Starr , Harvey . 1991 . The Diffusion of War: A Study of Opportunity and Willingness , Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press .
   Google Scholar
• Smith , Alastair . 1996 . To Intervene or Not to Intervene . Journal of Conflict Resolution , 40 : 16 – 40 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Starr , Harvey . 2005 . Territory, Proximity, and Spatiality: The Geography of International Conflict . International Studies Review , 7 : 387 – 406 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stinnett , Douglas M. , Tir , Jaroslav , Schafer , Philip , Diehl , Paul F. and Gochman , Charles . 2002 . The Correlates of War Project Direct Contiguity Data, Version 3 . Conflict Management and Peace Science , 19 ( 2 ) : 58 – 66 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Taylor , A.J.P. 1961 . The Origins of the Second World War , New York : Touchstone Publishing .
   Google Scholar
• Werner , Suzanne . 2000 . Deterring Intervention: The Stakes of War and Third Party Involvement . American Journal of Political Science , 44 ( 4 ) : 720 – 732 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Werner , Suzanne and Lemke , Douglas . 1996 . Power Parity, Commitment to Change, and War . International Studies Quarterly , 40 ( 2 ) : 235 – 260 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Werner , Suzanne and Lemke , Douglas . 1997 . Opposites Do Not Attract: The Impact of Domestic Institutions, Power, and Prior Commitments on Alignment Choices . International Studies Quarterly , 41 ( 3 ) : 529 – 546 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar