Too central to fail? Terror networks and leadership decapitation

References

• Abrahms, Max. 2018. Rules for Rebels: The Science of Victory in Military History. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Abrahms, Max, and Philip B.K. Potter. 2015. “Explaining Terrorism: Leadership Deficits and Militant Group Tactics.” International Organization 69 (2):311–42. doi:10.1017/S0020818314000411.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Acosta, Benjamin. 2016. “Dying for Survival: Why Militant Organizations Continue to Conduct Suicide Attacks.” Journal of Peace Research 53 (2):180–96. doi:10.1177/0022343315618001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Acosta, Benjamin, and Steven J. Childs. 2013. “Illuminating the Global Suicide-Attack Network.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 36 (1):49–76. doi:10.1080/1057610X.2013.739079.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Al-‘Ubaydi, Muhammad, Nelly Lahoud, Daniel Milton, and Bryan Price. 2014. The Group that Calls Itself a State: Understanding the Evolution and Challenges of the Islamic State. West Point: Combating Terrorism Center.
   Google Scholar
• Alter, Catherine, and Jerald Hage. 1993. Organizations Working Together. Newbury Park: Sage.
   Google Scholar
• Asal, Victor, Gary Ackerman, and R. Karl Rethemeyer. 2012. “Connections Can Be Toxic: Terrorist Organizational Factors and the Pursuit of CBRN Weapons.” Studies in Terrorism and Conflict 35 (3):229–54. doi:10.1080/1057610X.2012.648156.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Asal, Victor, and R. Karl Rethemeyer. 2008. “The Nature of the Beast: Terrorist Organizational Characteristics and Organizational Lethality.” Journal of Politics 70 (2):437–49. doi:10.1017/S0022381608080419.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bacon, Tricia. 2013. “Strange Bedfellows: Why Terrorist Organizations Ally.” Ph.D. Diss., Georgetown University.
   Google Scholar
• Bacon, Tricia. 2015. “Hurdles to International Terrorist Alliances: Lessons from al Qaeda’s Experience.” Terrorism and Political Violence 29 (1):79–101. doi:10.1080/09546553.2014.993466.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bacon, Tricia, and Elizabeth Grimm Arsenault. 2017. “Al Qaeda and the Islamic State’s Break: Strategic Strife or Lackluster Leadership.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 42 (3):229–63. doi:10.1080/1057610X.2017.1373895.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Beck, Nathaniel, Jonathan N. Katz, and Richard Tucker. 1998. “Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable.” American Journal of Political Science 42 (4):1260–88. doi:10.2307/2991857.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Berry, William D., Matt Golder, and Daniel Milton. 2012. “Improving Tests of Theories Positing Interaction.” Journal of Politics 74 (3):653–71. doi:10.1017/S0022381612000199.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Bradford S. Jones. 2004. Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. New York: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Christopher J.W. Zorn. 2001. “Duration Models and Proportional Hazards in Political Science.” American Journal of Political Science 45 (4):972–88. doi:10.2307/2669335.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brambor, Thomas, William R. Clark, and Matt Golder. 2006. “Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses.” Political Analysis 14 (1):63–82. doi:10.1093/pan/mpi014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brass, Daniel J., Joseph Galaskiewicz, Henrich R. Greve, and Wenpin Tsai. 2004. “Taking Stock of Networks and Organizations. A Multilevel Perspective.” Academy of Management Journal 47 (6):795–817. doi:10.5465/20159624.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Braumoeller, Bear. 2004. “Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms.” International Organization 58 (4):807–20. doi:10.1017/S0020818304040251.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Byman, Daniel. 1998. “The Logic of Ethnic Terrorism.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 21 (2):149–69. doi:10.1080/10576109808436060.
   Google Scholar
• Byman, Daniel. 2006. “Do Targeted Killings Work?.” Foreign Affairs 85 (2):95–111. doi:10.2307/20031914.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carson, Jennifer Varriale. 2017. “Assessing the Effectiveness of High-Profile Targeted Killings in the ‘War on Terror’.” Criminology & Public Policy 16 (1):191–220. doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12274.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carson, Jennifer Varriale. 2019. “Assessing the Nuances of Counterterrorism Programs: A Country-Level Investigation of Targeted Killings.” Crime & Delinquency 65 (9):1262–91. doi:10.1177/0011128718784742.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carter, David B. 2012. “A Blessing or A Curse? State Support for Terrorist Groups.” International Organization 66 (1):129–51. doi:10.1017/S0020818311000312.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carvin, Stephanie. 2012. “The Trouble with Targeted Killing.” Security Studies 21 (3):529–55. doi:10.1080/09636412.2012.706513.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chenoweth, Erica. 2010. “Democratic Competition and Terrorist Activity.” Journal of Politics 72 (1):16–30. doi:10.1017/S0022381609990442.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cronin, Audrey Kurth. 2006. “How al-Qaida Ends: The Decline and Demise of Terrorist Groups.” International Security 31 (1):7–48. doi:10.1162/isec.2006.31.1.7.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cronin, Audrey Kurth. 2009. How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Groups. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Cronin, Audrey. 2013. “Why Drones Fail: When Tactics Drive Strategy.” Foreign Affairs 92 (4):44–54.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Demaris, Ovid. 1977. Brothers in Blood: The International Terrorist Network. New York: Scribner Book Company.
   Google Scholar
• Dodwell, Brian, Daniel Milton, and Don Rassler. 2016. The Caliphate’s Global Workforce: An Insider’s Look at the Islamic State’s Foreign Fighter Paper Trail. West Point: Combating Terrorism Center.
   Google Scholar
• Donovan, John, and Richard Timothy Coupe. 2013. “Animal Rights Extremism: Victimization, Investigation, and Detection of a Campaign of Criminal Intimidation.” European Journal of Criminology 10 (1):113–32. doi:10.1177/1477370812460609.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Eilstrup-Sangiovanni, Mette, and Calvert Jones. 2008. “Assessing the Dangers of Illicit Networks: Why al-Qaida May Be Less Threatening than Many Think.” International Security 33 (2):7–44. doi:10.1162/isec.2008.33.2.7.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Eubank, William L., and Leonard Weinberg. 1994. “Does Democracy Encourage Terrorism.” Terrorism and Political Violence 6 (4):417–35. doi:10.1080/09546559408427271.
   Google Scholar
• Everton, Sean F. 2012. Disrupting Dark Networks. New York: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Everton, Sean F., and Daniel Cunningham. 2013. “Terrorist Network Adaptation to a Changing Environment.” In Crime and Networks, edited by Carlo Morselli, 287–308. London: Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Falk, Ophir. 2015. “Measuring Effectiveness of Israel’s ‘Targeted Killing’ Campaign.” Perspectives on Terrorism 9 (1):2–26.
   Google Scholar
• Forest, James J.F., Jarret Brachman, Joseph Felter, and Jacob Shapiro. 2006. Harmony and Disharmony: Exploiting al-Qa’ida’s Organizational Vulnerabilities. West Point: Combating Terrorism Center.
   Google Scholar
• Gannon, Sean. 2009. “IRA-PLO Cooperation: A Long, Cozy Relationship,” Jerusalem Post, April 9.
   Google Scholar
• Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Peter Wallensteen, Mikael Eriksson, Margareta Sollenberg, and Havard Strand. 2002. “Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 39 (5):615–37. doi:10.1177/0022343302039005007.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hafez, Mohammed M., and Joseph M. Hatfield. 2006. “Do Targeted Assassinations Work? A Multivariate Analysis of Israel’s Controversial Tactic during Al-Aqsa Uprising.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 29 (4):359–82. doi:10.1080/10576100600641972.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hoffman, Bruce. 1995. “Holy Terror: The Implications of Terrorism Motivated by Religious Imperative.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 18 (4):271–85. doi:10.1080/10576109508435985.
   Google Scholar
• Hoffman, Bruce. 2006. Inside Terrorism. New York: Columbia University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Horowitz, Michael C., and Philip B.K. Potter. 2014. “Allying to Kill: Terrorist Intergroup Cooperation and the Consequences for Lethality.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (2):199–225. doi:10.1177/0022002712468726.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hou, Dongfang, Khusrav Gaibulloev, and Todd Sandler. 2019. “Introducing Extended Data on Terrorist Groups (EDTG), 1970 to 2016.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 64 (1):199–225. doi:10.1177/0022002719857145.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hutchinson, Steve, and Pat O’Malley. 2007. How Terrorist Groups Decline. Ottawa: Canadian Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University.
   Google Scholar
• Huxham, Chris, and Siv Vangen. 2005. Managing to Collaborate. London: Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Johnston, P B. 2012. “Does Decapitation Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Targeting in Counterinsurgency Campaigns.” International Security 36 (4):47–79. doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00076.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jordan, Jenna. 2009. “When Heads Roll: Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Decapitation.” Security Studies 18 (4):719–55. doi:10.1080/09636410903369068.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jordan, Jenna. 2014. “Attacking the Leader, Missing the Mark: Why Terrorist Groups Survive Decapitation Strikes.” International Security 38 (4):7–38. doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00157.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jordan, Jenna. 2019. Leadership Decapitation: Strategic Targeting of Terrorist Organizations. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Kaplan, Edward H., Alex Mintz, Shaul Mishal, and Claudio Samban. 2005. “What Happened to Suicide Bombings in Israel? Insights from a Terror Stock Model.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 28 (3):225–35. doi:10.1080/10576100590928115.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Karmon, Ely. 2005. Coalitions between Terrorist Organizations: Revolutionaries, Nationalists, and Islamists. Leiden: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers.
   Google Scholar
• Kenney, Michael. 2007. From Pablo to Osama: Trafficking and Terrorist Networks, Government Bureaucraies, and Competitive Adaptation. University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Kenney, Michael, John Horgan, Cale Horne, P. Peter Vining, K. M. Carley, M. W. Bigrigg, M. Bloom, and K. Braddock. 2013. “Organisational Adaptation in an Activist Network: Social Networks, Leadership, and Change in al-Muhajiroun.” Applied Ergonomics 44 (5):739–47. doi:10.1016/j.apergo.2012.05.005.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kenney, Michael, Stephen Coulthart, and Dominick Wright. 2017. “Structure and Performance in a Violent Extremist Network: The Small-world Solution.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 61 (10):2208–34. doi:10.1177/0022002716631104.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Li, Quan. 2005. “Does Democracy Promote or Reduce Transnational Terrorist Incidents?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (2):278–97. doi:10.1177/0022002704272830.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marshall, Monty G., and Keith Jaggers. 2002. Polity IV Dataset [Computer File; Version P4v2002]. College Park: Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland.
   Google Scholar
• Matthew, Richard, and George Shambaugh. 2005. “The Limits of Terrorism: A Network Perspective.” International Studies Review 7 (4):617–27. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2486.2005.00536.x.
   Google Scholar
• McCormick, G. H. 2003. “Terrorist Decision Making.” Annual Review of Political Science 6 (1):473–507. doi:10.1146/annurev.polisci.6.121901.085601.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Melander, Erik, Therese Pettersson, and Lotta Themner. 2016. “Organized Violence, 1989–2015.” Journal of Peace Research 53 (5):727–42. doi:10.1177/0022343316663032.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moghadam, Assaf. 2015. “Terrorist Affiliations in Context: A Typology of Terrorist Inter-Group Cooperation.” CTC Sentinel 9 (3):22–25.
   Google Scholar
• Moghadam, Assaf. 2017. Nexus of Global Jihad: Understanding Cooperation among Terrorist Actors. New York: Columbia University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Montgomery, A. H. 2005. “Ringing in Proliferation: How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb Network.” International Security 30 (2):153–87. doi:10.1162/016228805775124543.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morehouse, M. A. 2015. “The Claws of the Bear: Russia’s Targeted Killing Program.” The Journal of Slavic Military Studies 28 (2):269–98. doi:10.1080/13518046.2015.1030231.
   Google Scholar
• Pearson, F S., Isil Akbulut, and Marie Olson Lounsbery. 2017. “Group Structure and Intergroup Relations in Global Terror Networks: Further Explorations.” Terrorism and Political Violence 29 (3):550–72. doi:10.1080/09546553.2015.1058788.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pedahzur, Ami, and Arie Perliger. 2006. “The Changing Nature of Suicide Attacks: A Social Network Perspective.” Social Forces 84 (4):1987–2008. doi:10.1353/sof.2006.0104.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Phillips, B. J. 2014. “Terrorist Group Cooperation and Longevity.” International Studies Quarterly 58 (2):336–47. doi:10.1111/isqu.12073.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Phillips, B. J. 2015. “Enemies with Benefits? Violent Rivalry and Terrorist Group Longevity.” Journal of Peace Research 52 (1):62–75. doi:10.1177/0022343314550538.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Price, B. C. 2012. “Targeting Top Terrorists: How Leadership Decapitation Contributes to Counterterrorism.” International Security 36 (4):9–46. doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00075.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Price, Bryan. 2009. “Removing the Devil You Know: Unraveling the Puzzle behind Leadership Decapitation Effectiveness and Terrorist Group Duration.” Ph.D diss., Stanford University
   Google Scholar
• Price, Bryan. 2019. Targeting Top Terrorists. New York: Columbia University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Raab, Jorg. 2003. “Dark Networks as Problems.” Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory 13 (4):413–39. doi:10.1093/jopart/mug029.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Richardson, Louise. 1999. “Terrorists as Transnational Actors.” Terrorism and Political Violence 11 (4):209–19. doi:10.1080/09546559908427541.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Richardson, Louise. 2006. What Terrorists Want: Understanding the Enemy, Containing the Threat. New York: Random House.
   Google Scholar
• Ryckman, K.C. 2017. “Lasting Peace or Temporary Calm? Rebel Group Decapitation and Civil War Outcomes.” Forthcoming in Conflict Management and Peace Studies. doi.10.1177/0738894217724135
   Google Scholar
• Sageman, Marc. 2004. Understanding Terror Networks. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
   Google Scholar
• Shapiro, J. N., and D. A. Siegel. 2007. “Underfunding in Terrorist Organizations.” International Studies Quarterly 51 (2):405–29. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2007.00457.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shapiro, J. N., and D. A. Siegel. 2012. “Moral Hazard, Discipline, and the Management of Terrorist Organizations.” World Politics 64 (1):39–78. doi:10.1017/S0043887111000293.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shapiro, Jacob N. 2013. The Terrorist’s Dilemma: Managing Violent Covert Organizations. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Stern, Jessica. 2004. Terror in the Name of God: Why Religious Militants Kill. New York: Harper.
   Google Scholar
• Tiernay, Michael. 2015. “Killing Kony: Leadership Change and Civil War Termination.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 59 (2):175–206. doi:10.1177/0022002713499720.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tominaga, Yasutaka. 2018. “Killing Two Birds with One Stone? Examining the Diffusion Effect of Militant Leadership Decapitation.” International Studies Quarterly 62 (1):54–68. doi:10.1093/isq/sqx055.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tsai, Wenpin. 2001. “Knowledge Transfer in Intraorganizational Networks: Effects of Network Position and Absorptive Capacity on Business Unit Innovation and Performance.” Academy of Management 44 (5):996–1004. doi:10.5465/3069443.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wright, Lawrence. 2006. The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
   Google Scholar
• Zawodny, J.K. 1981. “Infrastructures of Terrorist Organizations.” Conflict Studies 1 (4):24–31.
   Google Scholar
• Zussman, Asaf, and Noam Zussman. 2006. “Assassinations: Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Israeli Counterterrorism Policy Using Stock Market Data.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 20 (2):193–206. doi:10.1257/jep.20.2.193.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar