Navigating a fad or the future? Opportunities and limitations in integrating carshare membership and automated vehicle propensity in travel demand forecasting

References

• Abbot, J. 2005. “Understanding and Managing the Unknown: The Nature of Uncertainty in Planning.” Journal of Planning Education and Research 24: 237–251.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alemi, F., G. Circella, P. Mokhtarian, and S. Handy. 2019. “What Drives the use of Ridehailing in California? Ordered Probit Models of the Usage Frequency of Uber and Lyft.” Transportation Research Part C 102: 233–248.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Axsen, J., and B. K. Sovacool. 2019. “The Roles of Users in Electric, Shared and Automated Mobility Transitions.” Transportation Research Part D 71: 1–21.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bansal, P., and K. Kockelman. 2017a. Are Americans Ready to Embrace Connected and Self-Driving Vehicles? A Case Study of Texas. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board of the National Academies.
   Google Scholar
• Bansal, P., and K. M. Kockelman. 2017b. “Forecasting Americans’ Long-Term Adoption of Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Technologies.” Transportation Research Part A 95: 49–63.
   Google Scholar
• Bansal, P., K. Kockelman, and A. Singh. 2016. “Assessing Public Opinions of and Interest in New Vehicle Technologies: An Austin Perspective.” 95th Annual Meeting of the transportation research Board, National Academies Washington, DC.
   Google Scholar
• Becker, H., A. Loder, B. Schmid, and K. W. Axhausen. 2017. “Modeling car-Sharing Membership as a Mobility Tool: A Multivariate Probit Approach with Latent Variables.” Travel Behaviour and Society 8: 26–36.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bettencourt, L. M., A. Cintron-Arias, D. I. Kaiser, and C. Castillo-Chavez. 2006. “The Power of a Good Idea: Quantitative Modeling of the Spread of Ideas From Epidemiological Models.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 364: 513–536.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blumberg, S. J., and J. V. Luke. 2009. “Reevaluating the Need for Concern Regarding Noncoverage Bias in Landline Surveys.” American Journal of Public Health 99 (10): 1806–1810.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Booth, P. 1995. “Zoning or Discretionary Action: Certainty and Responsiveness in Implementing Planning Policy.” Journal of Planning Education and Research 14: 103–112.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cangialosi, E., A. Di Febbraro, and N. Sacco. 2015. “Designing a Multimodal Generalised Ride Sharing System.” IET Intelligent Transport Systems 10 (4): 227–236.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chakraborty, A., N. Kaza, G.-J. Knaap, and B. Deal. 2011. “Robust Plans and Contingent Plans.” Journal of the American Planning Association 77 (3): 251–266.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chan, N. D., and S. A. Shaheen. 2012. “Ridesharing in North America: Past.” Present, and Future. Transport Reviews 32 (1): 93–112.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen, T. D., and K. M. Kockelman. 2016. “Carsharing's Life-Cycle Impacts on Energy use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” Transportation Research Part D 47: 276–284.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Christensen, K. S. 1985. “Coping with Uncertainty in Planning.” APA Journal 51 (1): 63–71.
   Google Scholar
• Ciari, F., M. Balmer, and K. W. Axhausen. 2007. “Mobility Tool Ownership and Mode Choice Decision Processes in Multi-Agent Transportation Simultation.” 7th Swiss Transport research Cponference (STRC 2007).
   Google Scholar
• Ciari, F., N. Schuessler, and K. W. Axhausen. 2013. “Estimation of Carsharing Demand Using an Activity-Based Microsimulation Approach: Model Discussion and Some Results.” International Journal of Sustainable Transportation 7: 70–84.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ciari, F., C. Weis, and M. Balac. 2016. “Evaluating the Influence of Carsharing Stations’ Location on Potential Membership: A Swiss Case Study.” European Journal of Transportation and Logistics 5: 345–369.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cohen, T., and C. Cavoli. 2019. “Automated Vehicles: Exploring Possible Consequences of Government (Non)intervention for Congestion and Accessibility.” Transport Reviews 39 (1): 129–151.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Combs, T. S., L. S. Sandt, M. P. Clamann, and N. C. McDonald. 2019. “Automated Vehicles and Pedestrian Safety: Exploring the Promise and Limits of Pedestrian Detection.” American Journal of Preventive Medicine 56 (1): 1–7.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Connell, D. J., and L.-A. Daoust-Filiatrault. 2018. “Beter Than Good: Three Dimensions of Plan Quality.” Journal of Planning Education and Research 38 (3): 265–272.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Costain, C., C. Ardron, and K. N. Habib. 2012. “Synopsis of Users’ Behaviour of a Carsharing Program: A Case Study in Toronto.” Transportation Research Part A 46: 421–434.
   Google Scholar
• Daziano, R., M. Sarrias, and B. Leard. 2017. “Are Consumers Willing to Pay to Let Cars Drive for Them? Analyzing Response to Autonomous Vehicles.” Transportation Research Part C 78: 150–164.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• de Lorimier, A., and A. M. El-Geneidy. 2013. “Understanding the Factors Affecting Vehicle Usage and Availability in Carsharing Networks:A Case Study of Communauto Carsharing System From Montreal, Canada.” International Journal of Sustainable Transportation 7: 35–51.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dill, J., N. McNeil, and S. Howland. 2019. “Effects of Peer-to-Peer Carsharing on Vehicle Owners’ Travel Behavior.” Transportation Research Part C 101: 70–78.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• El Zarwi, F., A. Vij, and J. L. Walker. 2017. “A Discrete Choice Framework for Modeling and Forecasting Adoption and Diffusion of new Transportation Services.” Transportation Research C: Emerging Technologies 79: 207–223.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fagnant, D. J., and K. Kockelman. 2015. “Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Barriers and Policy Recommendations.” Transportation Research Part A 77: 167–181.
   Google Scholar
• Ferguson, M., M. Mohamed, C. D. Higgins, E. Abotalebi, and P. Kanaroglou. 2018. “How Open are Canadian Households to Electric Vehicles? A National Latent Class Choice Analysis with Willingness-to-pay and Metropolitan Characterization.” Transportation Research Part D 58: 208–224.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Geroski, P. A. 2000. “Models of Technology Diffusion.” Research Policy 29: 603–625.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Giesel, F., and C. Nobis. 2016. “The Impact of Carsharing on Car Ownership in German Cities.” Transportation Research Procedia 19: 215–224.
   Google Scholar
• Glotz-Richter, M. 2016. “Reclaim Street Space! – Exploit the European Potential of Car Sharing.” Transportation Research Procedia 14: 1296–1304.
   Google Scholar
• Goetz, A. R. 1997. “Revisiting Transportation Planning and Decision Making Theory: The Case of Denver International Airport.” Transportation Research Part A 31 (4): 263–280.
   Google Scholar
• González-González, E., S. Nogués, and D. Stead. 2019. “Automated Vehicles and the City of Tomorrow: A Backcasting Approach.” Cities 94: 153–160.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Guerra, E. 2016. “Planning for Cars That Drive Themselves: Metropolitan Planning Organizations, Regional Transportation Plans, and Autonomous Vehicles.” Journal of Planning Education and Research 36 (2): 210–224.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Guhathakurta, S. 1999. “Urban Modeling and Contemporary Planning Theory: Is There a Common Ground?” Journal of Planning Education and Research 18: 281–292.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haboucha, C. J., R. Ishaq, and Y. Shiftan. 2017. “User Preferences Regarding Autonomous Vehicles.” Transportation Research Part C 78: 37–49.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hardt, C., and K. Bogenberger. 2018. “Empirical Analysis of Demand Patterns and Availability in Free-Floating Carsharing Systems.” 21st International Conference on Intelligent transportation systems, 1186–1193.
   Google Scholar
• Harmon, A., and E. J. Miller. 2018. “Overview of a Labour Market Microsimulation Model.” Procedia Computer Science 130: 172–179.
   Google Scholar
• Harper, C. D., C. T. Hendrickson, S. Mangones, and C. Samaras. 2016. “Estimating Potential Increases in Travel with Autonomous Vehicles for the Non-Driving, Elderly and People with Travel-Restrictive Medical Conditions.” Transportation Research Part C 72: 1–9.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hatzopoulou, M., and E. Miller. 2009. “Transport Policy Evaluation in Metropolitan Areas: The Role of Modelling in Decision-Making.” Transportation Research Part A 43: 323–338.
   Google Scholar
• Hu, S., P. Chen, H. Lin, C. Xie, and X. Chen. 2018. “Promoting Carsharing Attractiveness and Efficiency: An Exploratory Analysis.” Transportation Research Part D 65: 229–243.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• IHS Markit. 2014. Self-Driving Cars Moving into the Industry’s Driver’s Seat, January 2. Accessed 2 9, 2019, from IHS Markit: http://press.ihs.com/press-release/automotive/self-driving-cars-moving-industrys-drivers-seat.
   Google Scholar
• Katoshevski, R., I.Glickman, R. Ishaq, and Y. Shiftan 2015. “Integrating Activity-Based Travel-Demand Models with Land-use and Other Long-Term Lifestyle Decisions.” Journal of Transport and Land Use 8: 1–23.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Katzev, R. 2003. “Car Sharing: A New Approach to Urban Transportation Problems.” Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy 3 (1): 65–86.
   Google Scholar
• Kawgan-Kagan, I., and M. Popp. 2018. “Sustainability and Gender: A Mixed-Method Analysis of Urban Women's Mode Choice with Particular Consideration of e-Carsharing.” Transportation Research Procedia 31: 146–159.
   Google Scholar
• Kent, J., R. Dowling, and S. Maalsen. 2017. “Catalysts for Transport Transitions: Bridging the Gap Between Disruptions and Change.” Journal of Transport Geography 60: 200–207.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kloostra, B., and M. J. Roorda. 2019. “Fully Autonomous Vehicles: Analyzing Transportation Network Performance and Operating Scenarios in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada.” Transportation Planning and Technology 42 (2): 99–112.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Klosterman, R. 1985. “Arguments for and Against Planning.” Town Planning Review 56 (1): 5–20.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ko, J., H. Ki, and S. Lee. 2019. “Factors Affecting Carsharing Program Participants’ car Ownership Changes.” Transportation Letters 11 (4): 208–218.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Krueger, R., T. H. Rashidi, and J. M. Rose. 2016. “Preferences for Shared Autonomous Vehicles.” Transportation Research Part C 69: 343–353.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kyriakidis, M., R. Happee, and J. C. De Winter. 2015. “Public Opinion on Automated Driving: Results of an International Questionnaire among 5000 Respondents.” Transportation Research Part F 32: 127–140.
   Google Scholar
• Lavieri, P., V. M. Garikapati, C. R. Bhat, R. M. Pendyala, S. Astroza, and F. F. Dias. 2017. “Modeling Individual Preferences for Ownership and Sharing Autonomous Vehicle Technologies.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2665 (1): 1–10. doi:10.3141/2665-01.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• LeVine, S. 2017. Fully Autonomous Cars will Cost Hundreds of Thousands, July 25. Accessed 2 9, 2019, from Axios: https://www.axios.com/fully-autonomous-cars-will-cost-hundreds-of-thousands-1513304413-ad50f408-fd24-4cee-8045-e2e00b89abae.html.
   Google Scholar
• Levine, J., M. Zellner, M. Arquero de Alarcon, Y. Shiftan, and D. Massey. 2018. “The Impact of Automated Transit, Pedestrian, and Bicycling Facilities on Urban Travel Patterns.” Transportation Planning and Technology 41 (5): 463–480.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Le Vine, S., and J. Polak. 2019. “The Impact of Free-Floating Carsharing on car Ownership: Early-Stage Findings From London.” Transport Policy 75: 119–127.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mack, R. 1971. Planning on Uncertainty: Decision Making in Business and Government Administration. New York: Wiley Interscience.
   Google Scholar
• Maggi, E., and E. Vallino. 2016. “Understanding Urban Mobility and the Impact of Public Policies: The Role of Agent-Based Models.” Research in Transportation Economics 55: 50–59.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mahajan, V., E. Muller, and F. M. Bass. 1995. “Diffusion of New Products: Empirical Generalizations and Managerial Uses.” Marketing Science 14 (3): 79–88.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marletto, G. 2019. “Who Will Drive the Transition to Self-Driving? A Socio-Technical Analysis of the Future Impact of Automated Vehicles.” Technological Forecasting & Social Change 139: 221–234.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marris, P. 1987. Meaning and Action: Community Planning and Conceptions of Change. 2nd revised edition ed. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul.
   Google Scholar
• Martin, E. W., and S. A. Shaheen. 2011. “Greenhouse Gas Emission Impacts of Carsharing in North America.” IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems 12 (4): 1074–1086.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mendes Lopes, M., L. M. Martinez, and G. Homem de Almeida Correia. 2014. “Simulating Carsharing Operations Through Agent-Based Modeling: an Application to the City of Lisbon, Portugal.” Transportation Research Procedia 3: 828–837.
   Google Scholar
• Meng, X., S. Roberts, Y. Cui, Y. Gao, Q. Chen, C. Xu, Q. He, S. Sharples, and P. Bhatia. 2018. “Required Navigation Performance for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles: Where are We Now and Where are We Going?” Transportation Planning and Technology 41 (1): 104–118.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Merat, N., A. H. Jamson, F. C. Lai, M. Daly, and O. M. Carsten. 2014. “Transition to Manual: Driver Behaviour When Resuming Control From a Highly Automated Vehicle.” Transportation Research Part F 27: 274–282.
   Google Scholar
• Mulley, C., and A. Kronsell. 2018. “Workshop 7 Report: The “Uberisation” of Public Transport and Mobility as a Service (MaaS): Implications for Future Mainstream Public Transport.” Research in Transportation Economics 69: 568–572.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Namazu, M., and H. Dowlatabadi. 2018. “Vehicle Ownership Reduction: A Comparison of One-way and Two-way Carsharing Systems.” Transport Policy 64: 38–50.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• National Science & Technology Council and the United States Department of Transportation. 2020. Ensuring American Leadership in Automated Vehicle Technologies: Automated Vehicles 4.0. Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation. Accessed 02 05, 2020. https://cms8.dot.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/policy-initiatives/automated-vehicles/360956/ensuringamericanleadershipav4.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Nordhoff, S., M. Kyriakidis, B. van Arem, and R. Happee. 2019. “A Multi-Level Model on Automated Vehicle Acceptance (MAVA): A Review-Based Study.” Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science 20 (6): 682–710.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peres, R., E. Muller, and V. Mahajan. 2010. “Innovation Diffusion and New Product Growth Models: A Critical Review and Research Directions.” International Journal of Research in Marketing 27: 91–106.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Puylaert, S., M. Snelder, R. van Nes, and B. van Arem. 2018. “Mobility Impacts of Early Forms of Automated Driving – A System Dynamic Approach.” Transport Policy 72: 171–179.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Riggs, W., and K. Gordon. 2017. “How is Mobility Technology Changing City Planning? Developing a Taxonomy for the Future.” Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science 44 (1): 100–119.
   Google Scholar
• Robertson, R. D., S. R. Meister, and W. G. Vanlaar. 2017. Automated Vehicles: Driver Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices. Ottawa, Canada: The Traffic Injury Research Foundation. http://tirf.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Automated-Vehicles-Driver-Knowledge-Attitudes-and-Practices-ExecutiveSummary-3.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Rose, A. 2018. Transportation Tomorrow Survey 2016 Data Expansion and Validation. Toronto: Malatest. Accessed 2 9, 2019. http://dmg.utoronto.ca/pdf/tts/2016/2016TTS_DataExpansion.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Rotaris, L., R. Danielis, and I. Maltese. 2019. “Carsharing use by College Students: The Case of Milan and Rome.” Transportation Research Part A 120: 239–251.
   Google Scholar
• Salvini, P., and E. J. Miller. 2005. “ILUTE: An Operational Prototype of a Comprehensive Microsimulation Model of Urban Systems.” Networks and Spatial Economics 5: 217–234.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sattlegger, L., and H. Rau. 2016. “Carlessness in a car-Centric World: A Reconstructive Approach to Qualitative Mobility Biographies Research.” Journal of Transport Geography 53: 22–31.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schaller, B. 2018. The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities. New York. Accessed 2 9, 2019. http://www.schallerconsult.com/rideservices/automobility.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Schwieterman, J. P., and A. Bieszczat. 2017. “The Cost to Carshare: A Review of the Changing Prices and Taxation Levels for Carsharing in the United States 2011-2016.” Transport Policy 57: 1–9.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sener, I. N., and J. Zmud. 2019. “Chipping Away at Uncertainty: Intent to Use Self-Driving Vehicles and the Role of Ride-Hailing.” Transportation Planning and Technology 42 (7): 645–661.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shabanpour, R., N. Golshani, A. Shamshiripour, and A. Mohammadian. 2018. “Eliciting Preferences for Adoption of Fully Automated Vehicles Using Best-Worst Analysis.” Transportation Research Part C 93: 463–478.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shackle, G. L. 1969. Decision Order and Time in Human Affairs. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Shaheen, S. A., N. D. Chan, and H. Micheaux. 2015. “One-way Carsharing's Evolution and Operator Perspectives From the Americas.” Transportation 42: 519–536.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shaheen, S. A., and A. P. Cohen. 2013. “Carsharing and Personal Vehicle Services: Worldwide Market Developments and Emerging Trends.” International Journal of Sustainable Transportation 7: 5–34.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shaheen, S., and A. Cohen. 2019. “Shared Ride Services in North America: Definitions, Impacts, and the Future of Pooling.” Transport Reviews 39 (4): 427–442.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Society of Automotive Engineers International. 2018. J3016_201806: Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles, June 15. Accessed 6 June, 2019. https://www.sae.org/standards/content/j3016_201806/.
   Google Scholar
• Standing, C., S. Standing, and S. Biermann. 2019. “The Implications of the Sharing Economy for Transport.” Transport Reviews 39 (2): 226–242.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stoiber, T., I. Schubert, R. Hoerler, and P. Burger. 2019. “Will Consumers Prefer Shared and Pooled-use Autonomous Vehicles? A Stated Choice Experiment with Swiss Households.” Transportation Research Part D 71: 265–282.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sweet, M. N., and K. Laidlaw. 2020. “No Longer in the Driver’s Seat: How Do Affective Motivations Impact Consumer Interest in Automated Vehicles?” Transportation 47 (5): 2601–2634.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sword-Daniels, V., C. Eriksen, E. E. Hudson-Doyle, R. Alaniz, C. Adler, T. Schenk, and S. Vallance. 2018. “Embodied Uncertainty: Living with Complexity and Natural Hazards.” Journal of Risk Research 21 (3): 290–307.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vasooghi, R., J. Puchinger, M. Jankovic, and G. Sirin. 2017. “A Critical Analysis of Travel Demand Estimation for New One-Way Carsharing Systems.” 2017 IEEE 20th International Conference on Intelligent transportation systems, 199–205.
   Google Scholar
• von Schoenfeld, K. C., and L. Bertolini. 2016. “Urban Streets Between Public Space and Mobility.” Transportation Research Procedia 19: 300–302.
   Google Scholar
• Wielinski, G., M. Trepanier, and C. Morency. 2017. “Electric and Hybrid Car Use in a Free-Floating Carsharing Systems.” International Journal of Sustainable Transportation 11 (3): 161–169.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wittwer, R., and S. Hubrich. 2018. “Free-Floating Carsharing Experiences in German Metropolitan Areas.” Transportation Research Procedia 33: 323–330.
   Google Scholar
• Young, M., and S. Farber. 2019. “The Who, Why, and When of Uber and Other Ride-Hailing Trips: An Examination of a Large Sample Household Travel Survey.” Transportation Research Part A 119: 383–392.
   Google Scholar
• Zhou, B., and K. M. Kockelman. 2011. “Opportunities for and Impacts of Carsharing: A Survey of the Austin, Texas Market.” International Journal of Sustainable Transportation 5: 135–152.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zmud, J., I. N. Sener, and J. Wagner. 2016. Consumer Acceptance and Travel Behavior Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles. College Station, TX: Texas Transportation Institute.
   Google Scholar