725
Views
28
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

An investigation of forecast horizon and observation fit’s influence on an econometric rate forecast model in the liner shipping industry

, , &

References

  • Beenstock, M., and A. Vergottis. 1989a. “An Econometric Model of the World Market for Dry Cargo Freight and Shipping.” Applied Economics 21: 339–356. doi:10.1080/758522551.
  • Beenstock, M., and A. Vergottis. 1989b. “An Econometric Model of the World Tanker Market.” Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 23: 263–280.
  • Bossaerts, P., and P. Hillion. 1999. “Implementing Statistical Criteria to Select Return Forecasting Models: What do we Learn?” The Review of Financial Studies 12 (2): 405–428. doi:10.1093/rfs/12.2.405.
  • Box, G. E. P., W. G. Hunter, and S. J. Hunter. 1978. Statistics for Experimenters. New York: John Wiley & Sons
  • Box, G. E. P., and G. M. Jenkins. 1976. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. San Francisco, CA: Holden-Day.
  • Cariou, P., and F.-C. Wolff. 2006. “An Analysis of Bunker Adjustment Factors and Freight Rates in the Europe/Far East Market (2000–2004).” Maritime Economics & Logistics 8: 187–201. doi:10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100156.
  • De Gooijer, J. G., and R. J. Hyndman. 2006. “25 Years of Time Series Forecasting.” International Journal of Forecasting 22: 443–473. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.01.001.
  • Fan, L. 2011. “Econometric Analysis of Container Shipping Market and Capacity Development.” PhD thesis, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong.
  • Fusillo, M. 2004. “Is Liner Shipping Supply Fixed?” Maritime Economics & Logistics 6: 220–235. doi:10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100110.
  • Goulielmos, A. M., and M.-E. Psifia. 2011. “Forecasting Short-Term Freight Rate Cycles: Do we have a more Appropriate Method than a Normal Distribution?” Maritime Policy & Management 38 (6): 645–672. doi:10.1080/03088839.2011.556673.
  • Hyndman, R. J., and A. B. Koehler. 2006. “Another Look at Measures of Forecast Accuracy.” International Journal of Forecasting 22: 679–688. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001.
  • Kavussanos, M. G. 1996. “Price Risk Modeling of Different Size Vessels in the Tanker Industry Using Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) Model.” Logistics and Transportation Review 32 (1): 161–176.
  • Kavussanos, M. G. 2003. “Time Varying Risks Among Segments of the Tanker Freight Markets.” Maritime Economics & Logistics 5 (3): 227–250. doi:10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100079.
  • Kavussanos, M. G., and A. H. Alizadeh. 2002. “Seasonality Patterns in Tanker Spot Freight Rate Markets.” Economic Modelling 19 (5): 747–782. doi:10.1016/S0264-9993(01)00078-5.
  • Koopmans, T. 1939. Tanker Freight Rates and Tanker Ship Building. Haarlem: De Erven F. Bohn.
  • Luo, M., L. Fan, and L. Liu. 2009. “An Econometric Analysis for Container Shipping Market.” Maritime Policy and Management 36 (6): 507–523. doi:10.1080/03088830903346061.
  • Makridakis, S. 1993. “Accuracy Measures: Theoretical and Practical Concerns.” International Journal of Forecasting 9: 527–529. doi:10.1016/0169-2070(93)90079-3.
  • Makridakis, S., R. M. Hogarth, and A. Gaba. 2009. “Forecasting and Uncertainty in the Economic and Business World.” International Journal of Forecasting 25: 794–812. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.012.
  • Manzanero, L. D. A., and K. J. Krupp 2009. “Forecasting Container Freight Rate- An Econometric Analysis.” Master thesis, Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen.
  • Montgomery, D. C. 2000. Design and Analysis of Experiments. 5th ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Murphy, A. H. 1993. “What is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting.” Weather and Forecasting 8: 281–293. doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0281:WIAGFA>2.0.CO;2.
  • Orrell, D., and P. McSharry. 2009. “System Economics: Overcoming the Pitfalls of Forecasting Models via a Multidisciplinary Approach.” International Journal of Forecasting 25: 734–743. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.002.
  • Rasmussen, H. W. 2010. “Econometric Modeling and Forecasting of Container Freight Rates.” Master thesis, University of Aarhus, Aarhus.
  • Stopford, M. 2009. Maritime Economics. 3rd ed. London: Taylor and Francis Group.
  • UNCTAD. 2013. Review of Maritime Transport 2013. Geneva: United Nations.
  • Walpole, R. E., R. H. Myers, S. L. Myers, and K. Ye. 2002. Probability & Statistics for Engineers & Scientists. New York: Prentice Hall.
  • Zannetos, Z. S. 1966. The Theory of Oil Tankership Rates: An Economic Analysis of Tankship Operations. Cambridge, MA: M.I.T. Press.
  • Zhang, G., and M. Y. Hu. 1998. “Neural Network Forecasting of the British Pound/US Dollar Exchange Rate.” Omega 26 (4): 495–506. doi:10.1016/S0305-0483(98)00003-6.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.