Quantitative modelling of shipping freight rates: developments in the past 20 years

References

• Adland, R., P. Cariou, and F. Charles Wolff. 2016. “The Influence of Charterers and Owners on Bulk Shipping Freight Rates.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review Elsevier Ltd. 86: 69–82. doi: 10.1016/j.tre.2015.11.014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Adland, R., P. Cariou, and F. Charles Wolff. 2017. “What Makes a Freight Market Index? An Empirical Analysis of Vessel Fixtures in the Offshore Market.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review Elsevier Ltd. 104: 150–164. doi: 10.1016/j.tre.2017.06.006.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Adland, R., and K. Cullinane. 2006. “The Non-Linear Dynamics of Spot Freight Rates in Tanker Markets.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 42 (3): 211–224. doi:10.1016/j.tre.2004.12.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Agnolucci, P., T. Smith, and N. Rehmatulla. 2014. “Energy Efficiency and Time Charter Rates: Energy Efficiency Savings Recovered by Ship Owners in the Panamax Market.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice Elsevier Ltd. 66 (1): 173–184. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2014.05.004.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alexandridis, G., M. G. Kavussanos, C. Y. Kim, D. A. Tsouknidis, and I. D. Visvikis. 2018. “A Survey of Shipping Finance Research: Setting the Future Research Agenda.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review Elsevier. 115 (October 2017): 164–212. doi:10.1016/j.tre.2018.04.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alizadeh, A. H., R. Adland, and S. Koekebakker. 2007. “Predictive Power and Unbiasedness of Implied Forward Charter Rates.” Journal of Forecasting 403 (July): 385–403. doi:10.1002/for.1029.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alizadeh, A. H., and W. K. Talley. 2011. “Microeconomic Determinants of Dry Bulk Shipping Freight Rates and Contract Times.” Transportation 38 (3): 561–579. doi:10.1007/s11116-010-9308-7.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bai, X., and J. Siu Lee Lam. 2017. “An Integrated Analysis of Interrelationships within the Very Large Gas Carrier (VLGC) Shipping Market.” Maritime Economics and Logistics Palgrave Macmillan UK. 21 (3): 372–389. doi:10.1057/s41278-017-0087-3.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baltic Exchange. 2020. “Baltic Exchange and Freightos Group Unleash Shipping Market Visibility with First Daily Container Freight Index.” doi:10.22233/20412495.0808.3.
   Google Scholar
• Batchelor, R., A. Alizadeh, and I. Visvikis. 2007. “Forecasting Spot and Forward Prices in the International Freight Market.” International Journal of Forecasting 23 (1): 101–114. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.07.004.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen, S., H. Meersman, and E. Van De Voorde. 2012. “Forecasting Spot Rates at Main Routes in the Dry Bulk Market.” Maritime Economics and Logistics 14 (4): 498–537. doi:10.1057/mel.2012.18.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen, F., K. Tian, X. Ding, Y. Miao, and L. Chunxia. 2016. “Finite-Size Effect and the Components of Multifractality in Transport Economics Volatility Based on Multifractal Detrending Moving Average Method.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications Elsevier B.V. 462 (800): 1058–1066. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2016.06.101.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen, J., K. Xue, L. Song, J. Xunjie Luo, Y. Mei, X. Huang, D. Zhang, and C. Hua. 2019. “Periodicity of World Crude Oil Maritime Transportation: Case Analysis of Aframax Tanker Market.” Energy Strategy Reviews Elsevier. 25 (May): 47–55. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2019.100363.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chistè, C., and G. van Vuuren. 2014. “Investigating the Cyclical Behaviour of the Dry Bulk Shipping Market.” Maritime Policy & Management 41 (1): 1–19. doi:10.1080/03088839.2013.780216.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clarksons Research. 2020. Shipping Intelligence Network.
   Google Scholar
• Drobetz, W., T. Richter, and M. Wambach. 2012. “Dynamics of Time-Varying Volatility in the Dry Bulk and Tanker Freight Markets.” Applied Financial Economics 22 (16): 1367–1384. doi:10.1080/09603107.2012.657349.
   Google Scholar
• Duru, O. 2012. “A Multivariate Model of Fuzzy Integrated Logical Forecasting Method (M-FILF) and Multiplicative Time Series Clustering: A Model of Time-Varying Volatility for Dry Cargo Freight Market.” Expert Systems with Applications Elsevier Ltd. 39 (4): 4135–4142. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.09.123.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Duru, O., E. Bulut, and S. Yoshida. 2010. “Bivariate Long Term Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting of Dry Cargo Freight Rates.” Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics 26 (2): 205–223. doi:10.1016/S2092-5212(10)80002-1.
   Google Scholar
• Duru, O., E. Bulut, and S. Yoshida. 2012. “A Fuzzy Extended DELPHI Method for Adjustment of Statistical Time Series Prediction: An Empirical Study on Dry Bulk Freight Market Case.” Expert Systems with Applications Elsevier Ltd. 39 (1): 840–848. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.07.082.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Engelen, S., P. Norouzzadeh, W. Dullaert, and B. Rahmani. 2011. “Multifractal Features of Spot Rates in the Liquid Petroleum Gas Shipping Market.” Energy Economics Elsevier B.V. 33 (1): 88–98. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2010.05.009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Eslami, P., K. Jung, D. Lee, and A. Tjolleng. 2017. “Predicting Tanker Freight Rates Using Parsimonious Variables and a Hybrid Artificial Neural Network with an Adaptive Genetic Algorithm.” Maritime Economics and Logistics 19 (3): 538–550. doi:10.1057/mel.2016.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Frederik, R., and N. K. Nomikos. 2019. “The Eye in the Sky – Freight Rate Effects of Tanker Supply.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review Elsevier. 125 March: 402–424. doi:10.1016/j.tre.2019.03.015.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gavriilidis, K., D. S. Kambouroudis, K. Tsakou, and D. A. Tsouknidis. 2018. “Volatility Forecasting across Tanker Freight Rates: The Role of Oil Price Shocks.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review Elsevier. 118 July: 376–391. doi:10.1016/j.tre.2018.08.012.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Glen, D. R. 2006. “The Modelling of Dry Bulk and Tanker Markets: A Survey.” Maritime Policy & Management 33 (5): 431–445. doi:10.1080/03088830601020562.
   Google Scholar
• Goulas, L., and G. Skiadopoulos. 2012. “Are Freight Futures Markets Efficient? Evidence from IMAREX.” International Journal of Forecasting Elsevier B.V. 28 (3): 644–659. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.11.004.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goulielmos, A. M. 2010. “What Can We Learn from 259 Years of Shipping Cycles?” International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics 2 (2): 125–150. doi:10.1504/IJSTL.2010.030863.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goulielmos, A. M., and M. Elpiniki Psifia. 2011. “Forecasting Short-Term Freight Rate Cycles: Do We Have a More Appropriate Method than a Normal Distribution?” Maritime Policy & Management 38 (6): 645–672. doi:10.1080/03088839.2011.556673.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gouvernal, E., and B. Slack. 2012. “Container Freight Rates and Economic Distance: A New Perspective on the World Map.” Maritime Policy & Management 39 (2): 133–149. doi:10.1080/03088839.2011.650723.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hirata, E. 2017. “Contestability of Container Liner Shipping Market in Alliance Era.” Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Elsevier B.V. 33 (1): 27–32. doi:10.1016/j.ajsl.2017.03.004.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hurvich, C. M., and W. W. Chen. 2000. “An Efficient Taper for Potentially Overdifferenced Long-Memory Time Series.” Journal of Time Series Analysis 21 (2): 155–180. doi:10.1111/1467-9892.00179.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jane Jing, X., T. Leung Yip, and L. Liu. 2011. “A Directional Relationship between Freight and Newbuilding Markets: A Panel Analysis.” Maritime Economics and Logistics 13 (1): 44–60. doi:10.1057/mel.2010.20.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jiang, B., L. Jian, and C. Gong. 2018. “Maritime Shipping and Export Trade on ‘Maritime Silk Road.” Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Elsevier B.V. 34 (2): 83–90. doi:10.1016/j.ajsl.2018.06.005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kavussanos, M. G., and A. H. Alizadeh-M. 2001. “Seasonality Patterns in Dry Bulk Shipping Spot and Time Charter Freight Rates.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 37 (6): 443–467. doi:10.1016/S1366-5545(01)00004-7.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kavussanos, M. G., and A. H. Alizadeh-M. 2002. “Seasonality Patterns in Tanker Spot Freight Rate Markets.” Economic Modelling 19 (5): 747–782. doi:10.1016/S0264-9993(01)00078-5.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kavussanos, M. G., and N. K. Nomikos. 2003. “Price Discovery, Causality and Forecasting in the Freight Futures Market.” Review of Derivatives Research 6 (3): 203–230. doi:10.1023/B:REDR.0000004824.99648.73.
   Google Scholar
• Kavussanos, M. G., and I. D. Visvikis. 2006. “Shipping Freight Derivatives: A Survey of Recent Evidence.” Maritime Policy & Management 33 (3): 233–255. doi:10.1080/03088830600783152.
   Google Scholar
• Koekebakker, S., R. Adland, and S. Sødal. 2006. “Are Spot Freight Rates Stationary?” Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 40 (3): 449–472.
   Google Scholar
• Köhn, S., and H. Thanopoulou. 2011. “A Gam Assessment of Quality Premia in the Dry Bulk Time-Charter Market.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review Elsevier Ltd. 47 (5): 709–721. doi:10.1016/j.tre.2011.01.003.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kou, Y., M. Luo, and Y. Zhao. 2018. “Examining the Theoretical–Empirical Inconsistency on Stationarity of Shipping Freight Rate.” Maritime Policy & Management Routledge. 45 (2): 145–158. doi:10.1080/03088839.2017.1418091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lei, Q., and C. Bachmann. 2019. Palgrave Macmillan UK. “Assessing the Role of Port Efficiency as a Determinant of Maritime Transport Costs: Evidence from Canada.” Maritime Economics and Logistics (123456789). doi:10.1057/s41278-019-00135-5.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leonov, Y., and V. Nikolov. 2012. “A Wavelet and Neural Network Model for the Prediction of Dry Bulk Shipping Indices.” Maritime Economics and Logistics 14 (3): 319–333. doi:10.1057/mel.2012.10.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liu, J., and F. Chen. 2018. “Asymmetric Volatility Varies in Different Dry Bulk Freight Rate Markets under Structure Breaks.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications Elsevier B.V. 505 June: 316–327. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.165.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Luo, M., L. Fan, and L. Liu. 2009. “An Econometric Analysis for Container Shipping Market.” Maritime Policy & Management 36 (6): 507–523. doi:10.1080/03088830903346061.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lyridis, D. V., N. D. Manos, and P. G. Zacharioudakis. 2014. “Modeling the Dry Bulk Shipping Market Using Macroeconomic Factors in Addition to Shipping Market Parameters via Artificial Neural Networks.” International Journal of Transport Economics 41 (2): 231–253.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Márquez-Ramos, L., I. Martínez-Zarzoso, E. Pérez-García, and G. Wilmsmeier. 2011. “‘Special Issue on Latin-American Research’ Maritime Networks, Services Structure and Maritime Trade.” Networks and Spatial Economics 11 (3): 555–576. doi:10.1007/s11067-010-9128-5.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Munim, Z. H., and H. Joachim Schramm. 2017. “Forecasting Container Shipping Freight Rates for the Far East-Northern Europe Trade Lane.” Maritime Economics and Logistics Palgrave Macmillan UK. 19 (1): 106–125. doi:10.1057/s41278-016-0051-7.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nielsen, P., L. Jiang, N. Gorm Malý Rytter, and G. Chen. 2014. “An Investigation of Forecast Horizon and Observation Fit’s Influence on an Econometric Rate Forecast Model in the Liner Shipping Industry.” Maritime Policy & Management Routledge. 41 (7): 667–682. doi:10.1080/03088839.2014.960499.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Oliveira, D. 2014. “Determinants of European Freight Rates: The Role of Market Power and Trade Imbalance.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review Elsevier Ltd. 62: 23–33. doi: 10.1016/j.tre.2013.12.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pearl, J. 2019. “The Seven Tools of Causal Inference, with Reflections on Machine Learning.” Communications of the ACM ACM New York, NY, USA. 62 (3): 54–60. doi:10.1145/3241036.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Poblacion, J. 2015. “The Stochastic Seasonal Behavior of Freight Rate Dynamics.” Maritime Economics and Logistics Nature Publishing Group. 17 (2): 142–162. doi:10.1057/mel.2014.37.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Población, J. 2017. “Are Recent Tanker Freight Rates Stationary? Oa.” Maritime Economics and Logistics 19 (4): 650–666. doi:10.1057/mel.2016.7.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Población, J., and G. Serna. 2018. “A Common Long-Term Trend for Bulk Shipping Prices.” Maritime Economics and Logistics 20 (3): 421–432. doi:10.1057/s41278-017-0065-9.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Qianqian, H., B. Yan, G. Ning, and B. Yu. 2014. “Forecasting Dry Bulk Freight Index with Improved SVM.” Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2014. doi:10.1155/2014/460684.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Qingcheng, Z., Q. Chenrui, A. K. Y. Ng, and X. Zhao. 2016. “A New Approach for Baltic Dry Index Forecasting Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Neural Networks.” Maritime Economics and Logistics 18 (2): 192–210. doi:10.1057/mel.2015.2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Roar, A., and A. H. Alizadeh. 2018. “Explaining Price Differences between Physical and Derivative Freight Contracts.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review Elsevier. 118 July: 20–33. doi:10.1016/j.tre.2018.07.002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Santos, A. A. P., N. J. Luciano, and C. M. P. Floriano. 2014. “Forecasting Period Charter Rates of VLCC Tankers through Neural Networks: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches.” Maritime Economics and Logistics 16 (1): 72–91. doi:10.1057/mel.2013.20.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stopford, M. 2009. Maritime Economics.3rd ed. New York: Routledge. doi:10.4324/9780203442661.
   Google Scholar
• Suárez-Alemán, A., J. Campos, and J. Luis Jiménez. 2015. “The Economic Competitiveness of Short Sea Shipping: An Empirical Assessment for Spanish Ports.” International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics 7 (1): 42–67. doi:10.1504/IJSTL.2015.065893.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tingyi, L., L. Xue, Y. Chen, F. Chen, Y. Miao, X. Shao, and C. Zhang. 2018. “Insights from Multifractality Analysis of Tanker Freight Market Volatility with Common External Factor of Crude Oil Price.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications Elsevier B.V. 505: 374–384. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.107.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tsioumas, V., S. Papadimitriou, Y. Smirlis, and S. Zahran Zahran. 2017. “A Novel Approach to Forecasting the Bulk Freight Market.” Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Elsevier B.V. 33 (1): 33–41. doi:10.1016/j.ajsl.2017.03.005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tvedt, J. 2003. “A New Perspective on Price Dynamics of the Dry Bulk Market.” Maritime Policy & Management 30 (3): 221–230. doi:10.1080/0308883032000133413.
   Google Scholar
• UNCTAD. 2015. Review of Maritime Transport 2015. New York and Geneva: United Nations Publication.
   Google Scholar
• Uyar, K., Ü. Ilhan, and A. Ilhan. 2016. “Long Term Dry Cargo Freight Rates Forecasting by Using Recurrent Fuzzy Neural Networks.” Procedia Computer Science 102 (August): 642–647. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2016.09.455.
   Google Scholar
• Wee, Bert, V., and D. Banister. 2016. “How to Write a Literature Review Paper?” Transport Reviews 36 (2): 278–288. doi:10.1080/01441647.2015.1065456.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wilmsmeier, G., and J. Hoffmann. 2008. “Liner Shipping Connectivity and Port Infrastructure as Determinants of Freight Rates in the Caribbean.” Maritime Economics and Logistics 10 (1–2): 130–151. doi:10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100195.
   Google Scholar
• Yijie, W., J. Yin, and P. Sheng. 2018. “The Dynamics of Dry Bulk Shipping Market under the Shipping Cycle Perspective: Market Relationships and Volatility.” Transportation Research Record 2672 (11): 1–9. doi:10.1177/0361198118756622.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yin, J., and J. Shi. 2018. “Seasonality Patterns in the Container Shipping Freight Rate Market.” Maritime Policy & Management Routledge. 45 (2): 159–173. doi:10.1080/03088839.2017.1420260.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zeng, Q., and Q. Chenrui. 2014. “An Approach for Baltic Dry Index Analysis Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition.” Maritime Policy & Management Routledge. 41 (3): 224–240. doi:10.1080/03088839.2013.839512.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhang, X., M. Y. Chen, M. G. Wang, Y. E. Ge, and H. E. Stanley. 2019. “A Novel Hybrid Approach to Baltic Dry Index Forecasting Based on A Combined Dynamic Fluctuation Network and Artificial Intelligence Method.” Applied Mathematics and Computation 361: 499–516. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2019.05.043.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar