2,512
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

A new flood chronology for KwaZulu-Natal (1836–2022): the April 2022 Durban floods in historical context

&
Received 01 Sep 2022, Accepted 09 Mar 2023, Published online: 10 Apr 2023

References

  • Alexander, W. J. R. (2002). Statistical analysis of extreme floods. Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering, 44(1), 20–25.
  • Alfieri, L., Bisselink, B., Dottori, F., Naumann, G., de Roo, A., Salamon, P., Wyser, K., & Feyen, L. (2017). Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world. Earth’s Future, 5(2), 171–182. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000485
  • Badenhorst, P., Cooper, J. A. G., Crowther, J., Gonsalves, J., Laubscher, W. I., Grobler, N. A., Mason, T. R., Illenberger, W. K., Perry, J. E., Reddering, J. S. V., & Van Der Merwe, L. (1989). Survey of September 1987 Natal floods. South African National Scientific Programmes Report, (164), Pretoria, pp137.
  • Barnes, P. (1984). The great flood of 1856. Natalia, 14, 33–41.
  • Bell, F. G. (1994). Floods and landslides in Natal and notably the Greater Durban Region, September 1987: A Retrospective view. Environmental & Engineering Geoscience, 31(1), 59–74. https://doi.org/10.2113/gseegeosci.xxxi.1.59
  • Bell, F. G., & Mason, T. R. (1998). The problem of flooding in Ladysmith, Natal, South Africa. In J. G. Maund & M. Eddleston (Eds.), Geohazards in Engineering Geology (Vol. 15, pp. 3–10). London: Geological Society.
  • Bell, F. G., & Maud, R. R. (1996). “Examples of landslides associated with the Natal Group and Pietermaritzburg Formation in the greater Durban area of Natal, South Africa”. Bulletin of the International Association of Engineering Geology, 53(1), 11–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02594936
  • Bird, J. (1888). The Annals of Natal, 1495 to 1845 (Vol. 1and 2). P. Davis.
  • Botes, Z. A. (2014). Flooding in KwaZulu-Natal: Modelling, history and future aspects. Unpublished PhD thesis, University of KwaZulu-Natal, pp310.
  • Brázdil, R., Kundzewicz, Z. W., & Benito, G. (2006). Historical hydrology for studying flood risk in Europe. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51(5), 739–764. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.51.5.739
  • Brühl, J., & Visser, M. (2021). The Cape Town drought: A study of the combined effectiveness of measures implemented to prevent “Day Zero”. Water Resources and Economics, 34, 100177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wre.2021.100177
  • Dottori, F., Szewczyk, W., Ciscar, J. C., Zhao, F., Alfieri, L., Hirabayashi, Y., Bianchi, A., Mongelli, I., Frieler, K., Betts, R. A., & Feyen, L. (2018). Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming. Nature Climate Change, 8(9), 781–786. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z
  • Dube, K., Nhamo, G., & Chikodzi, D. (2022). Flooding trends and their impacts on coastal communities of Western Cape Province, South Africa. GeoJournal, 87(S4), 453–468. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-021-10460-z
  • Engelbrecht, F., le Roux, A., Vogel, C., & Mbiyozo, A. -N. (2022). Is climate change to blame for KwaZulu-Natal’s flood damage? ISS Today, Institute for Security Studies. Accessed at: https://issafrica.org/iss-today/is-climate-change-to-blame-for-kwazulu-natals-flood-damage
  • Farquharson, F. A. K., Meigh, J. R., & Sutcliffe, J. V. (1992). Regional flood frequency analysis in arid and semi-arid areas. Journal of Hydrology, 138(3–4), 487–501. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(92)90132-F
  • Fashuyi, M. O., Owolawi, P. A., & Afullo, T. J. (2006). Rainfall rate modeling for LOS radio systems in South Africa. Transactions of the South African Institute of Electrical Engineers, 97(1), 74–81. https://doi.org/10.23919/SAIEE.2006.9488028
  • Grab, S. W., & Nash, D. J. (2010). Documentary evidence of climate variability during cold seasons in Lesotho, southern Africa, 1833–1900. Climate Dynamics, 34(4), 473–499. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0598-4
  • He, Y., Manful, D., Warren, R., Forstenhäusler, N., Osborn, T. J., Price, J., Jenkins, R., Wallace, C., & Yamazaki, D. (2022). Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4° C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries. Climatic Change, 170(1–2), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03289-5
  • IPCC, Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., DiLuca, A., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Satoh, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Wehner, M. & Zhou, B. (2021). Chapter 11: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate. In V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, & B. Zhou Eds Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva: IPCC, 1513-1765. Accessed at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
  • Kjeldsen, T. R., Smithers, J. C., & Schulze, R. E. (2001). Flood frequency analysis at ungauged sites in the KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. Water SA, 27(3), 315–324. https://doi.org/10.4314/wsa.v27i3.4974
  • Kjeldsen, T. R., Smithers, J. C., & Schulze, R. E. (2002). Regional flood frequency analysis in the KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa, using the index-flood method. Journal of Hydrology, 255(1–4), 194–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00520-0
  • Kovács, Z. P. (1988). Preliminary hydrological assessment of the Natal flood. Die Siviele Ingenieur in Suid-Afrika, 7–13. [January 1988(1)].
  • Magidimisha-Chipungu, H. (2022). South African floods wreaked havoc because people are forced to live in disaster prone areas. The Conversation, 14 April 2022. Accessed at: https://theconversation.com/south-african-floods-wreaked-havoc-because-people-are-forced-to-live-in-disaster-prone-areas-181309
  • Nash, D. J., & Adamson, G. C. (2014). Recent advances in the historical climatology of the tropics and subtropics. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95(1), 131–146. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00030.1
  • Nash, D. J., Pribyl, K., Klein, J., Neukom, R., Endfield, G. H., Adamson, G. C., & Kniveton, D. R. (2016). Seasonal rainfall variability in southeast Africa during the nineteenth century reconstructed from documentary sources. Climatic Change, 134(4), 605–619. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1550-8
  • Nicholson, S. E. (1979). The methodology of historical climatic reconstruction and its application to Africa. Journal of African History, 20(1), 31–49. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021853700016704
  • Ntanganedzeni, B., & Nobert, J. (2021). Flood risk assessment in Luvuvhu river, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 124, 102959. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2020.102959
  • Pinto, I., Zachariah, M., Wolski, P., Landman, S., Phakula, V., Maluleke, W., Bopape, M. -J., Engelbrecht, C., Jack, C., McClure, A., Bonnet, R., Vautard, R., Philip, S., Kew, S., Heinrich, D., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Arrighi, J., Thalheimer, L. … Dipura, R. (2022). Climate change exacerbated rainfall causing devastating flooding in Eastern South Africa. World Weather Attribution. Accessed at: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-exacerbated-rainfall-causing-devastating-flooding-in-eastern-south-africa/
  • Pitman, W. V., & Midgley, D. C. (1967). Flood studies in South Africa: Frequency analysis of peak discharges. Civil Engineering, 1967(8), 193–200.
  • Raju, E., Boyd, E., & Otto, F. (2022). Stop blaming the climate for disasters. Communications Earth & Environment, 3(1), 1–2. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00332-2
  • SAWS. (2008). SAWS: CAELUM: A history of notable weather events in South Africa, 1500-2008. South African Weather Service.
  • Thomas, M. A., & van Schalkwyk, A. (1993). Geological hazards associated with intense rain and flooding in Natal. Journal of African Earth Sciences, 16(1–2), 193–204. https://doi.org/10.1016/0899-5362(93)90167-O
  • van Bladeren, D. (1992). Historical flood documentation series No. 1: Natal and Transkei, 1848- 1989. p 179. Technical Report TR 147, Department of Water Affairs and Forestry.
  • van der Bank, M., & Karsten, J. (2020). Climate change and South Africa: A critical analysis of the Earthlife Africa Johannesburg and another v Minister of Energy and Others 65662/16 (2017) case and the drive for concrete climate practices. Air, Soil and Water Research, 13, 1178622119885372. https://doi.org/10.1177/1178622119885372
  • Viljoen, M. F., & Booysen, H. J. (2006). Planning and management of flood damage control: The South African experience. Irrigation and Drainage, 55(S1), S83–91. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.259
  • Wills, T. (1982). The Umsindusi: A “third rate stream”? Natalia, 12, 45–57.
  • Woldemeskel, F., & Sharma, A. (2016). Should flood regimes change in a warming climate? The role of antecedent moisture conditions. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(14), 7556–7563. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069448

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.