References
- AFGSC (Air Force Global Strike Command Public Affairs). 2017. F. E. Warren Tests Minuteman III Missile with Launch from Vandenberg. 26 April. https://www.15wing.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1163173/fe-warren-tests-minuteman-iii-missile-with-launch-from-vandenberg/.
- Arbatov, A. 2018. Challenges of the New Nuclear Era: The Russian Perspective. In L. Brooks, F. Gavin and A. Arbatov, eds. Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age: U.S. and Russian Nuclear Concepts, Past and Present: 21-46. Cambridge, MA: American Academy of Arts and Sciences. https://www.amacad.org/publication/us-and-russian-nuclear-concepts-past-and-present/section/4.
- Arbatov, A. 2019. Mad Momentum Redux? The Rise and Fall of Nuclear Arms Control. Survival 63 (3): 7–38.
- Baglione, L. 1997. Finishing START and Achieving Unilateral Reductions: Leadership and Arms Control at the End of the Cold War. Journal of Peace Research 34 (2): 144–6.
- Biden, J. 2019. The Power of America’s Example: The Biden Plan for Leading the Democratic World to Meet the Challenges of the 21st Century. Accessed 4 December 2020. https://joebiden.com/americanleadership/.
- Bidgood, S. 2020. Russia’s New Nuclear Policy Could Be a Path to Arms Control Treaties. Defense News, 8 June. https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/06/08/russias-new-nuclear-policy-could-be-a-path-to-arms-control-treaties/.
- Blair, B., and Wolfsthal, J. 2019. We Still Can’t ‘Win’ a Nuclear War. Pretending We Could Is a Dangerous Fantasy. The Washington Post, 1 August. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/08/01/we-still-cant-win-nuclear-war-pretending-we-could-is-dangerous-fantasy/.
- Bunn, G. 1992. Arms Control by Committee: Managing Negotiations with the Russians. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press.
- Bush, G. 1991. Speech on a New American Defense Strategy. 27 September. https://www.c-span.org/video/?21616-1/us-soviet-nuclear-forces-reduction.
- Bush, G. 1992. Excerpts from State of the Union Address. 28 January. Reprinted in Koch (2012): 32-3.
- Capaccio, A. 2020. New U.S. ICBMs Could Cost up to $264 Billion over Decades. Bloomberg 3 October. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-03/new-u-s-icbms-could-cost-up-to-264-billion-over-decades.
- Chernyaev, A. 1991. Excerpt from Diary. 27 September. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/dc.html?doc=3117095-Document-02-Excerpt-from-Anatoly-S-Chernyaev.
- Collins, A. 1998. GRIT, Gorbachev and the End of the Cold War. Review of International Studies 24 (2): 201–19.
- Congressional Budget Office. 2020. The Potential Costs of Expanding the U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces if the New START Treaty Expires. August. https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-08/56475-START.pdf.
- Congressional Research Service. 2019 US Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background, Developments, and Issues. 3 October. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33640/59.
- Cooper, J. 2019. Russia’s ‘Invincible’ Weapons: An Update. Oxford: Changing Character of War Center, March. http://www.ccw.ox.ac.uk/blog/2019/3/27/russias-invincible-weapons-an-update-by-julian-cooper.
- Cotton, S., and Lewis, J. 2020. The Global Missile Defense Race: Strong Records and Poor Operational Performance. Nuclear Threat Initiative, 16 September. https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/global-missile-defense-race-strong-test-records-and-poor-operational-performance/.
- Department of Defense. 2020. Release: U.S. Successfully Conducts SM-3 Block IIA Intercept Test Against an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Target. 17 November. https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2417334/us-successfully-conducts-sm-3-block-iia-intercept-test-against-an-intercontinen/.
- Digges, C. 2020. Rosatom Fears for Its Nuclear Cities amid Coronavirus Pandemic. Bellona, 5 May. https://bellona.org/news/nuclear-issues/2020-05-rosatom-fears-for-its-nuclear-cities-amid-coronavirus-pandemic.
- DoS (Department of State) Bureau of Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance. 2020. Fact Sheet: New START Treaty Aggregate Numbers of Strategic Offensive Arms. 1 October. https://www.state.gov/new-start-treaty-aggregate-numbers-of-strategic-offensive-arms-12.
- Eckstein, M. 2020. MDA to Use Destroyer USS John Finn for Defense-of-Hawaii Missile Intercept Test. U.S. Naval Institute News, 8 August. https://news.usni.org/2020/08/05/mda-to-use-destroyer-uss-john-finn-for-defense-of-hawaii-missile-intercept-test.
- Egel, D., Shatz H. J., Kuma, K. B., and Harshberger, E. R. 2020. Defense Budget Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic. The RAND Blog, 7 April. https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/04/defense-budget-implications-of-the-covid-19-pandemic.html.
- Einhorn. R. 2020. COVID-19 Has Given the NPT Review Conference a Reprieve. Let’s Take Advantage of It. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 13 May. https://thebulletin.org/2020/05/covid-19-has-given-the-2020-npt-review-conference-a-reprieve-lets-take-advantage-of-it/.
- Etzioni, A. 1967. The Kennedy Experiment. The Western Political Quarterly XX (2), Part 1.
- Evangelista, M. 1990. Cooperation Theory and Disarmament Negotiations in the 1950s. World Politics: 42 (4): 502–28.
- Ford, C. 2019. Lessons from Disarmament History for the CEND Initiative. Remarks, Disarmament Side Event, Third Preparatory Committee Meeting for the 2020 NPT Review Conference. New York: United Nations. https://www.state.gov/lessons-from-disarmament-history-for-the-cend-initiative/.
- Ford, C. 2020a. The Politics of Arms Control: Getting Beyond Post-Cold War Pathologies and Finding Security in a Competitive Environment. Remarks delivered at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, London, February 11. https://www.state.gov/the-psychopolitics-of-arms-control/.
- Ford, C. 2020b. Russian Arms Control Compliance: A Report Card, 1984-2020. Arms Control and International Security Papers 1 (10). https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/T-Series-Paper-Comp-Rpt-History-FINAL-T-508.pdf.
- Gallagher, N. 2015. Rethinking the Unthinkable: Arms Control in the Twenty-First Century. The Nonproliferation Review 22 (3–4): 469–98.
- Gates, R. 1996. From the Shadows: The Ultimate Insider’s Story of Five Presidents and How They Won the Cold War. New York: Simon and Schuster. Quoted in Koch (2012).
- Gorbachev, M. 1991. Televised address. 5 October. Reproduced in Koch (Citation2012): 29-31.
- Gottemoeller, R. 2001. Offense, Defense, and Unilateralism in Strategic Arms Control. Arms Control Today, September. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2001-09/features/offense-defense-unilateralism-strategic-arms-control.
- Hall, E. A. 1992. Conversation with Charles Osgood. Psychology Today 7 (6): 54. Cited in G. Bunn, Arms Control by Committee: Managing Negotiations with the Russians. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 1992: 277. See notes to pages 39-44.
- Hudson, J., and Sonne, P. 2020. Trump Administration Discussed Conducting First U.S. Nuclear Test in Decades. Washington Post, 22 May. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html.
- Jervis, R. 2002. Signaling and Perception: Drawing Inferences and Projecting Images. In K. Monroe, ed. Political Psychology. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum: 293-313. Reprinted in R. Jervis, How Statesmen Think: The Psychology of International Politics: 107–24. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017.
- Kaplan, F. 2020. The Bomb: Presidents, Generals, and the Secret History of Nuclear War. New York: Simon & Schuster.
- Kennedy, J. 1963. Excerpt from the Commencement Address at the American University, Washington, DC, 10 June. https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/historic-speeches/american-university-commencement-address.
- Koch, S. 2012. The Presidential Nuclear Initiatives of 1991-1992. Washington, DC: National Defense University Press.
- Kristensen, H. 2019. Pentagon Slams Door on Nuclear Weapons Transparency. Federation of American Scientists, 17 April. https://fas.org/blogs/security/2019/04/stockpilenumbersecret/.
- Kühn, U. 2020. Nuclear Risk in the Euro-Atlantic. In W. Wan, ed. Nuclear Risk Reduction: Closing Pathways to Use: 95-110. Geneva: UNIDIR. https://unidir.org/publication/nuclear-risk-reduction-closing-pathways-use.
- Kydd, A. 2000. Trust, Reassurance, and Cooperation. International Organization 54 (2): 325–57.
- Landay, J., and Mohammed, A. 2020. U.S. Prepared to Spend Russia, China, ‘into Oblivion’ to Win Nuclear Arms Race: U.S. Envoy. Reuters, 21 May. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-21/us-prepared-to-spend-russia-china-into-oblivion-to-win-nuclear-arms-race-us-envoy.
- Larson, D. W. 1987. Crisis Prevention and the Austrian State Treaty. International Organization 41 (1): 27–60.
- Larson, D. W. 1997. Anatomy of Mistrust: U.S.-Soviet Relations During the Cold War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
- Lebow, R. N. 1996. Thomas Schelling and Strategic Bargaining. International Journal 51 (3): 555–76.
- Liddle, A. 2020. The P5 Meet in London. FCO Disarmament Blog, 21 February. https://blogs.fco.gov.uk/aidanliddle/2020/02/21/disarmament-blog-the-p5-meet-in-london/.
- Maucione, S. 2020. DoD Expects Three Month Acquisition Delays, Billions in Payouts to Contractors. Federal News Network, 20 April. https://federalnewsnetwork.com/defense-main/2020/04/dod-expects-three-month-acquisition-delays-billions-in-payouts-to-contractors/.
- Mehta, A. 2018. Will the US Trade Its New Sub-Launched Cruise Missile for Russian Arms Treaty Compliance? Defense News, 6 February. https://www.defensenews.com/space/2018/02/06/will-the-us-trade-its-new-sub-launched-cruise-missile-for-russian-arms-treaty-compliance/.
- Mehta, A. 2020. The US Navy’s New Cruise Missile Starts Getting Real Next Year. Defense News 21 February. https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-arsenal/2020/02/21/the-navys-new-nuclear-cruise-missile-starts-getting-real-next-year/.
- MemCon (Memorandum of Telephone Conversation Between Mikhail Gorbachev and Bush). 1991. 27 September. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/dc.html?doc=3117094-Document-01-White-House-Memorandum-of-Telephone.
- Morrison, T. 2020. Special Presidential Envoy Marshall Billingslea on the Future of Arms Control. Remarks delivered at the Hudson Institute, Washington, DC, 22 May. https://www.hudson.org/research/16062-transcript-special-presidential-envoy-marshall-billingslea-on-the-future-of-nuclear-arms-control.
- Northrop Grumman. 2020. Northrop Grumman Will Lead a Nationwide Team to Deliver the Ground Based Strategic Deterrence Program. 8 September. https://news.northropgrumman.com/news/releases/northrop-grumman-awarded-contract-to-replace-aging-icbm-system.
- Office of the Secretary of Defense. 2018. Nuclear Posture Review. Washington, DC: US Department of Defense. https://media.defense.gov/2018/Feb/02/2001872886/-1/-1/1/2018-NUCLEAR-POSTURE-REVIEW-FINAL-REPORT.PDF.
- Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. 2020. The Sea-Launched Cruise Missile-Nuclear (SLCM-N): Policy and Strategy. Arms Control and International Security Papers 1(11): 1–6. https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/T-Paper_SCLM-N-CLEARED_T-Final.pdf.
- Osgood, C. 1959. Suggestions for Winning the Real War with Communism. The Journal of Conflict Resolution: 3 (4): 295–325.
- Osgood, C. 1960. A Case for Graduated Unilateral Disengagement. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: 16 (4): 127–31.
- Osgood, C. 1962. An Alternative to War or Surrender. Champaign, IL: University of Illinois Press.
- Osgood, C. 1980. The GRIT Strategy. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May: 58–60.
- Panda. A. 2020a. US to Test SM-3 Block IIA Missile Against ICBM Target by End of 2020. The Diplomat, 25 February. https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/us-to-test-sm-3-block-iia-missile-against-icbm-target-by-end-of-2020/.
- Panda, A. 2020b. The Wrong Way to Draw China to Arms Control Talks. The Diplomat, 23 June. https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/the-wrong-way-to-draw-china-to-arms-control-talks/.
- Perry, W. J., and Weber, A. 2015. Mr. President, Kill the New Cruise Missile. Washington Post, 15 October. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mr-president-kill-the-new-cruise-missile/2015/10/15/e3e2807c-6ecd-11e5-9bfe-e59f5e244f92_story.html.
- Pifer, S. 2020. How COVID-19 Might Affect Nuclear Weapons and Planning. Brookings, 18 May. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/05/18/how-covid-19-might-affect-us-nuclear-weapons-and-planning/.
- Putin, V. 2018. Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly, Moscow, 1 March. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56957.
- Raytheon Missiles and Defense. 2020. SM-3 Interceptor. Accessed 6 October 2020. https://www.raytheonmissilesanddefense.com/capabilities/products/sm3-interceptor.
- Reif, K. 2016. Cruise Control: Why the U.S. Should Not Buy A New Nuclear Air Launched Cruise Missile. War on the Rocks, 21 March. https://warontherocks.com/2016/03/cruise-control-why-the-u-s-should-not-buy-a-new-nuclear-air-launched-cruise-missile/.
- Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 2019. Comment by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the U.S. Report on Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments (to be added to the comment by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Embassy of the Russian Federation in the USA, 20 September. https://washington.mid.ru/en/press-centre/news/comment_by_the_russian_ministry_of_foreign_affairs_on_the_u_s_report_on_adherence_to_and_compliance_/.
- Ryabkov, S. 2020. Interview. Kommersant, 22 September. English translation available at: https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/regprla/-/asset_publisher/YCxLFJnKuD1W/content/id/4348327.
- Sampson, C., and Joyce, J. eds. 1998a. Document 25. Record of the Policy Planning Staff Meeting. In Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961-1963. Vol. V, Soviet Union. Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office. https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1961-63v05/d25.
- Sampson, C., and Joyce, J, eds. 1998b. Document 4. Record of Telephone Conversation Between President-elect Kennedy and Adlai E. Stevenson. In Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961-1963. Vol. V, Soviet Union. Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office. https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1961-63v05/d4.
- Sampson, C., and LaFantasie, G. eds. 1996. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961-1963. Vol. VI, Kennedy-Khrushchev Exchanges. Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office. https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1961-63v06.
- Sandurskaya, S. 2020. Coronavirus Seals Off City Near Secret Russian Nuclear Accident Site. The Moscow Times, 4 June. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/06/04/coronavirus-seals-off-city-near-secret-russian-nuclear-accident-site-a70483.
- Schelling, T., and Halperin, M. 1961. Strategy and Arms Control. New York: Twentieth Century Fund.
- TASS. 2018. Russia, UK, China, US, France Won’t Sign Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. 29 October. https://tass.com/world/1028334.
- The President of the Russian Federation. 2020. Executive Order: On Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Deterrence. 8 June. https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/disarmament/-/asset_publisher/rp0fiUBmANaH/content/id/4152094.
- Tirpak, J. A. 2020. Raytheon Prevails on LRSO, Lockheed out. Air Force Magazine, 20 April. https://www.airforcemag.com/raytheon-prevails-on-lrso-lockheed-out/.
- Trenin, T. 2020. Decoding Russia’s Official Nuclear Deterrence Paper. Carnegie Moscow Center, 6 May. https://carnegie.ru/commentary/81983.
- Weisgerber, M. 2020. We Don’t Have Enough Cash to Build New Nuclear Weapons, Says Air Force Chief. Defense One, 1 July. https://www.defenseone.com/politics/2020/07/we-dont-have-enough-cash-build-new-nuclear-weapons-says-air-force-chief/166598/.
- Wheeler, N. 2018. Trusting Enemies: Interpersonal Relationships in International Conflict. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Williams, H. 2018. Strategic Stability, Uncertainty and the Future of Arms Control. Survival 60 (2): 45–54.
- Yeltsin, B. 1992. Televised address. 29 January. Reproduced in Koch (Citation2012): 34-9.
- Yeo, M. 2020. Japan Reveals Record High Budget Request Eyeing Hypersonic Tech, F-35s and More. Defense News, 1 October. https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2020/10/01/japan-reveals-record-high-budget-request-supporting-hypersonic-tech-f-35-buys-and-more/.
- Zhao, T. 2020. Opportunities for Nuclear Arms Control Engagement with China. Arms Control Today, January/February. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-01/features/opportunities-nuclear-arms-control-engagement-china.