Modelling historical and potential future climate impacts on Keremeos Creek, an Okanagan-Similkameen watershed, British Columbia, Canada: Part I. Forecasting change in spring and summer water supply and demand

References

• Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada 1996. Soil Landscapes of Canada, v.2.2. Ottawa: Center for Land and Biological Resources Research, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Accessed November, 2015. http://sis.agr.gc.ca/cansis/soils/provinces.html.
   Google Scholar
• Barnett, T. P., J. C. Adam, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2005. “Potential Impacts of a Warming Climate on Water Availability in Snow-Dominated Regions.” Nature 438 (7066): 303–309. doi: 10.1038/nature04141.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• BC Government. 2018. “BC Fresh Water Atlas.” BC Data Catalogue. Accessed January, 2018. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/data/geographic-data-services/topographic-data/freshwater.
   Google Scholar
• BC Ministry of Agriculture Food and Fisheries 2001. Water Conservation Factsheet, Crop Coefficients for Use in Irrigation Scheduling. Vancouver, BC, Canada: BC Ministry of Environment.
   Google Scholar
• BC Ministry of Environment. 2016. “Terrestrial Ecosystem Information (TEI) Access to Maps and Data, BC Soil mapping dataset.” BC Ministry of Environment. Accessed November, 2016. http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/esd/distdata/ecosystems/Soil_Data/SOIL_DATA_FGDB/.
   Google Scholar
• BC Ministry of Environment Lands and Parks 1981. Water Quality Assessment and Objectives for Keremeos Creek Watershed, Okanagan Area. Vancouver, BC, Canada: BC Ministry of Environment.
   Google Scholar
• Boé, J., and L. Terray. 2008. “Uncertainties in Summer Evapotranspiration Changes over Europe and Implications for Regional Climate Change.” Geophysical Research Letters 35 (5): 1–5. doi: 10.1029/2007GL032417.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cohen, S., D. Neilsen, S. Smith, T. Neale, B. Taylor, M. Barton, W. Merritt., et al. 2006. “Learning with Local Help: Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Change and Water Management in the Okanagan Region, British Columbia, Canada.” Climatic Change 75 (3): 331–358. doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-6336-6.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cohen, S. J., K. A. Miller, A. F. Hamlet, and W. Avis. 2000. “Climate Change and Resource Management in the Columbia River Basin.” Water International 25 (2): 253–272. doi: 10.1080/02508060008686827.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• DeWalle, D. R., Z. Henderson, and A. Rango. 2002. “Spatial and temporal variations in snowmelt degree-day factors computed from SNOTEL data in the Upper Rio Grande basin.” Paper presented at the Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference.
   Google Scholar
• Diaz-Nieto, J., and R. L. Wilby. 2005. “A Comparison of Statistical Downscaling and Climate Change Factor Methods: Impacts on Low Flows in the River Thames, United Kingdom.” Climatic Change 69 (2-3): 245–268. doi: 10.1007/s10584-005-1157-6.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dubayah, R., and P. M. Rich. 1995. “Topographic Solar Radiation Models for GIS.” International Journal of Geographical Information Systems 9 (4): 405–419. doi: 10.1080/02693799508902046.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Elsner, M. M., L. Cuo, N. Voisin, J. S. Deems, A. F. Hamlet, J. A. Vano, K. E. Mickelson, S.-Y. Lee, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2010. “Implications of 21st Century Climate Change for the Hydrology of Washington State.” Climatic Change 102 (1-2): 225–260. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9855-0.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Environment Canada. 2015. “HYDAT database”. Environment Canada. Accessed October, 2015. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/wateroverview/quantity/monitoring/survey/data-products-services/national-archive-hydat.html.
   Google Scholar
• Environment Canada. 2016. “Historical climate data.” Environment Canada. Accessed October, 2016. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/historical_data/search_historic_data_e.html.
   Google Scholar
• Fu, P., and P. M. Rich. 2002. “A Geometric Solar Radiation Model with Applications in Agriculture and Forestry.” Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 37 (1-3): 25–35. doi: 10.1016/S0168-1699(02)00115-1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Glassy, J. M., and S. W. Running. 1994. “Validating Diurnal Climatology Logic of the MT‐CLIM Model across a Climatic Gradient in Oregon.” Ecological Applications 4 (2): 248–257. doi: 10.2307/1941931.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Grunwald, S., and L. Norton. 2000. “Calibration and Validation of a Non-Point Source Pollution Model.” Agricultural Water Management 45 (1): 17–39. doi: 10.1016/S0378-3774(99)00074-8.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hamlet, A. F., and D. P. Lettenmaier. 1999. “Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Columbia River Basin.” Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (6): 1597–1623. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04240.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Harma, K. J., M. S. Johnson, and S. J. Cohen. 2012. “Future Water Supply and Demand in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia: A Scenario-Based Analysis of Multiple, Interacting Stressors.” Water Resources Management 26 (3): 667–689. doi: 10.1007/s11269-011-9938-3.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hectares BC. 2015. “Land cover data.” Hectares BC. Accessed November, 2015. https://www.hectaresbc.org/app/habc/HaBC.html.
   Google Scholar
• Hedstrom, N., and J. Pomeroy. 1998. “Measurements and Modelling of Snow Interception in the Boreal Forest.” Hydrological Processes 12 (10-11): 1611–1625. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199808/09)12:10/11<1611::AID-HYP684>3.0.CO;2-4.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hungerford, R. D., R. R. Nemani, S. W. Running, and J. C. Coughlan. 1989. MTCLIM: A Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model. Ogden, UT: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station.
   Google Scholar
• Jeon, J.-H., K. Lim, and B. Engel. 2014. “Regional Calibration of SCS-CN L-THIA Model: Application for Ungauged Basins.” Water 6 (5): 1339–1359. doi: 10.3390/w6051339.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jost, G., and F. Weber. 2012. “Potential impacts of climate change on BC Hydro's water resources.” BC Hydro. http://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/hydro/medialib/internet/documents/about/climate_change_report_2012.pdf (Page consultée le 14 mars 2014).
   Google Scholar
• Kienzle, S. W. 2008. “A New Temperature Based Method to Separate Rain and Snow.” Hydrological Processes 22 (26): 5067–5085. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7131.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kienzle, S. W. 2011. “Effects of Area under‐Estimations of Sloped Mountain Terrain on Simulated Hydrological Behaviour: A Case Study Using the ACRU Model.” Hydrological Processes 25 (8): 1212–1227. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7886.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Klemeš, V. 1986. “Operational Testing of Hydrological Simulation Models.” Hydrological Sciences Journal 31 (1): 13–24. doi: 10.1080/02626668609491024.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Knowles, N., M. D. Dettinger, and D. R. Cayan. 2006. “Trends in Snowfall versus Rainfall in the Western United States.” Journal of Climate 19 (18): 4545–4559. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3850.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lapp, S., J. Byrne, I. Townshend, and S. Kienzle. 2005. “Climate Warming Impacts on Snowpack Accumulation in an Alpine Watershed.” International Journal of Climatology 25 (4): 521–536. doi: 10.1002/joc.1140.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Larson, R. P., J. M. Byrne, D. L. Johnson, S. W. Kienzie, and M. G. Letts. 2011. “Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Spring Runoff for the Rocky Mountains of Montana and Alberta II: Runoff Change Projections Using Future Scenarios.” Canadian Water Resources Journal 36 (1): 35–52. doi: 10.4296/cwrj3601035.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leith, R. M., and P. H. Whitfield. 1998. “Evidence of Climate Change Effects on the Hydrology of Streams in South-Central BC.” Canadian Water Resources Journal 23 (3): 219–230. doi: 10.4296/cwrj2303219.
   Google Scholar
• MacDonald, R. J., S. Boon, J. M. Byrne, M. D. Robinson, and J. B. Rasmussen. 2014. “Potential Future Climate Effects on Mountain Hydrology, Stream Temperature, and Native Salmonid Life History.” Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 71 (2): 189–202. doi: 10.1139/cjfas-2013-0221.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• MacDonald, R. J., J. M. Byrne, S. Boon, and S. W. Kienzle. 2012. “Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Snowpack in the North Saskatchewan River Watershed, Alberta.” Water Resources Management 26 (11): 3053–3076. doi: 10.1007/s11269-012-0016-2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• MacDonald, R. J., J. M. Byrne, and S. W. Kienzle. 2009. “A Physically Based Daily Hydrometeorological Model for Complex Mountain Terrain.” Journal of Hydrometeorology 10 (6): 1430–1446. doi: 10.1175/2009JHM1093.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• MacDonald, R. J., J. M. Byrne, S. W. Kienzle, and R. P. Larson. 2011. “Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Snowpack in the St. Mary River Watershed, Montana.” Journal of Hydrometeorology 12 (2): 262–273. doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1294.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Magruder, I. A., W. W. Woessner, and S. W. Running. 2009. “Ecohydrologic Process Modeling of Mountain Block Groundwater Recharge.” Ground Water 47 (6): 774–785. doi: 10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00615.x.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• McKenney, M. S., and N. J. Rosenberg. 1993. “Sensitivity of Some Potential Evapotranspiration Estimation Methods to Climate Change.” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 64 (1-2): 81–110. doi: 10.1016/0168-1923(93)90095-Y.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Merritt, W. S., Y. Alila, M. Barton, B. Taylor, S. Cohen, and D. Neilsen. 2006. “Hydrologic Response to Scenarios of Climate Change in Sub Watersheds of the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia.” Journal of Hydrology 326 (1-4): 79–108. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.10.025.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mirmasoudi, S., J. Byrne, R. Kroebel, D. Johnson, and R. MacDonald. 2018. “A Novel Time-Effective Model for Daily Distributed Solar Radiation Estimates across Variable Terrain.” International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering 9 (4): 383–398. doi: 10.1007/s40095-018-0279-3.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mockus, V. 1972. Estimation of Direct Runoff from Storm Rainfall. Chapter 10, Section 4 (Hydrology), National Engineering Handbook. Washington, D.C., USA: Soil Conservation Service, US Department of Agriculture.
   Google Scholar
• Mohammed, H., F. Yohannes, and G. Zeleke. 2004. “Validation of Agricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) Pollution Model in Kori Watershed, South Wollo, Ethiopia.” International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 6 (2): 97–109. doi: 10.1016/j.jag.2004.08.002.
   Google Scholar
• Morrison, J., M. C. Quick, and M. G. Foreman. 2002. “Climate Change in the Fraser River Watershed: Flow and Temperature Projections.” Journal of Hydrology 263 (1-4): 230–244. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00065-3.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mote, P. W., A. F. Hamlet, M. P. Clark, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2005. “Declining Mountain Snowpack in Western North America.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86 (1): 39–50. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-86-1-39.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Najafi, M. R., F. W. Zwiers, and N. P. Gillett. 2017. “Attribution of Observed Streamflow Changes in Key British Columbia Drainage Basins.” Geophysical Research Letters 44 (21): 11,012. doi: 10.1002/2017GL075016.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• NASA LP DAAC 2000. Leaf Area Index - Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation 8-Day L4 Global 1km. Reston, VA, USA: NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC, USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center. Accessed November, 2016. https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/.
   Google Scholar
• NASA LP DAAC 2011. Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model. Reston, VA, USA: NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC, USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center. Accessed November, 2016. https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/.
   Google Scholar
• Neilsen, D., C. Smith, G. Frank, W. Koch, Y. Alila, W. Merritt, W. Taylor, M. Barton, J. Hall, and S. Cohen. 2006. “Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Availability for Crops in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia.” Canadian Journal of Soil Science 86 (5): 921–936. doi: 10.4141/S05-113.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nemeth, M. W. 2010. “Climate change impacts on streamflow in the upper North Saskatchewan River Basin, Alberta.” Master of Science thesis., University of Lethbridge.
   Google Scholar
• Ponce, V., A. Lohani, and C. Scheyhing. 1996. “Analytical Verification of Muskingum-Cunge Routing.” Journal of Hydrology 174 (3-4): 235–241. doi: 10.1016/0022-1694(95)02765-3.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Quick, M. C., and A. Pipes. 1977. “ULe mod/Le modèle du bassin versant UCB.” Hydrological Sciences Journal 22 (1): 153–161.
   Google Scholar
• Regional District of Okanagan-Similkameen 2011a. Flood Prevention Plan for Keremeos Creek (Olalla Townsite). Salmon Arm, BC, Canada: Onsite Engineering Ltd and Streamworks Consulting Inc.
   Google Scholar
• Regional District of Okanagan-Similkameen 2011b. Similkameen River Water Management Plan: Part 1- Scoping Study. Princeton, BC, Canada: Similkameen Valley Planning Society.
   Google Scholar
• Schnorbus, M., A. Werner, and K. Bennett. 2014. “Impacts of Climate Change in Three Hydrologic Regimes in British Columbia, Canada.” Hydrological Processes 28 (3): 1170–1189. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9661.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Scibek, J., D. M. Allen, A. J. Cannon, and P. H. Whitfield. 2007. “Groundwater–Surface Water Interaction under Scenarios of Climate Change Using a High-Resolution Transient Groundwater Model.” Journal of Hydrology 333 (2-4): 165–181. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• SCS 1985. National Engineering Handbook, Section 4: Hydrology. Washington, DC: United States Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service.
   Google Scholar
• Shrestha, R. R., M. A. Schnorbus, A. T. Werner, and A. J. Berland. 2012. “Modelling Spatial and Temporal Variability of Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change in the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia, Canada.” Hydrological Processes 26 (12): 1840–1860. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9283.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Statistics Canada. 2006. “Census of Agriculture, Farm Data and Farm Operator Data”. Statistics Canada. Accessed May, 2017. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/95-629-x/95-629-x2007000-eng.htm.
   Google Scholar
• Stewart, I. T., D. R. Cayan, and M. D. Dettinger. 2004. “Changes in Snowmelt Runoff Timing in Western North America under a Business as Usual Climate Change Scenario.” Climatic Change 62 (1-3): 217–232. doi: 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013702.22656.e8.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Taylor, P. 1998. “The Thermodynamic Effects of Sublimating, Blowing Snow in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer.” Boundary-Layer Meteorology 89 (2): 251–283. doi: 10.1023/A:1001712111718.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• USDA. 1986. “Urban Hydrology for Small Watersheds.” Technical Release 55: 2–6.
   Google Scholar
• Valiantzas, J. D. 2006. “Simplified Versions for the Penman Evaporation Equation Using Routine Weather Data.” Journal of Hydrology 331 (3-4): 690–702. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.06.012.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• von Hoyningen-Huene, J. 1981. Die Interzeption Des Niederschlags in Landwirtschaftlichen Pflanzenbeständen. Bonn, Germany: Arbeitsbericht Deutscher Verband für Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturbau, DVWK.
   Google Scholar
• Walker, W. R., and G. V. Skogerboe. 1987. Surface Irrigation. Theory and Practice. Englewood Cliffs, NJ, USA: Prentice-Hall.
   Google Scholar
• Wang, T., A. Hamann, D. Spittlehouse, and C. Carroll. 2016. “Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.” PloS One 11 (6): e0156720. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0156720.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zebarth, B., J. Caprio, K. Broersma, P. Mills, and S. Smith. 1997. Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture in the British Columbia and Yukon. Responding to Global Climate Change in British Columbia and Yukon. Vancouver, BC, Canada: BC Ministry of Environment Lands and Parks.
   Google Scholar