Publication Cover
Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing
Journal canadien de télédétection
Volume 46, 2020 - Issue 6
886
Views
4
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

Modeling Watershed-Scale Historic Change in the Alpine Treeline Ecotone Using Random Forest

Modélisation des changements historiques à l’échelle du bassin versant dans l’écotone alpin de la limite forestière à l’aide du modèle Forêt aléatoire

&
Pages 715-732 | Received 01 Dec 2019, Accepted 15 Dec 2020, Published online: 06 Jan 2021

References

  • Allen, T.R., and Walsh, S.J. 1996. “Spatial and compositional pattern of alpine treeline.” Glacier National Park, Montana" Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, Vol. 62(No. 11): pp. 1261–1268.
  • Aplet, G.H., Laven, R.D., and Smith, F.W. 1988. “Patterns of community dynamics in Colorado Engelmann spruce‐subalpine fir forests.” Ecology, Vol. 69(No. 2): pp. 312–319.
  • Bekker, M.F. 2005. “Positive feedback between tree establishment and patterns of subalpine forest.” Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol. 37(No. 1): pp. 97–107.
  • Beven, K.J., and Kirkby, M.J. 1979. “A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology/Un modèle à base physique de zone d'appel variable de l'hydrologie du bassin versant.” Hydrological Sciences Bulletin, Vol. 24(No. 1): pp. 43–69.
  • Bolton, D.K., Coops, N.C., and Wulder, M.A. 2013. “Measuring forest structure along productivity gradients in the Canadian boreal with small-footprint LiDAR.” Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Vol. 185(No. 8): pp. 6617–6634.
  • Bozzini, C., Conedera, M., and Krebs, P. 2012. “A new monoplotting tool to extract georeferenced vector data and orthorectified raster data from oblique non-metric photographs.” International Journal of Heritage in the Digital Era, Vol. 1(No. 3): pp. 499–518.
  • Butler, D.R., and DeChano, L.M. 2001. “Environmental change in Glacier National Park, Montana: An assessment through repeat photography from fire outlooks.” Physical Geography, Vol. 22(No. 4): pp. 291–304.
  • Butler, D.R., Malanson, G.P., and Cairns, D.M. 1994. “Stability of alpine treeline in Northern Montana.” Phytocoenologia, Vol. 22(No. 4): pp. 485–500.
  • Butler, D.R., Malanson, G.P., Walsh, S.J., and Fagre, D.B. 2007. “Influences of geomorphology and geology on alpine treeline in the American West—more important than climatic influences?” Physical Geography, Vol. 28(No. 5): pp. 434–450.
  • Butler, D.R., and Walsh, S.J. 1994. “Site characteristics of debris flows and their relationship to alpine treeline.” Physical Geography, Vol. 15(No. 2): pp. 181–199.
  • Byrne, J., Kienzle, S., Johnson, D., Duke, G., Gannon, V., Selinger, B., and Thomas, J. 2006. “Current and future water issues in the Oldman River Basin of Alberta, Canada.” Water Science and Technology : A Journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research, Vol. 53(No. 10): pp. 327–334.
  • Case, B.S., and Buckley, H.L. 2015. “Local-scale topoclimate effects on treeline elevations: A country-wide investigation of New Zealand's southern beech treelines.” PeerJ., Vol. 3 pp. e1334.
  • Case, B.S., and Duncan, R.P. 2014. “A novel framework for disentangling the scale-dependent influences of abiotic factors on alpine treeline position.” Ecography, Vol. 37(No. 9): pp. 838–851.
  • Coops, N.C., Morsdorf, F., Schaepman, M.E., and Zimmermann, N.E. 2013. “Characterization of an alpine tree line using airborne LiDAR data and physiological modeling.” Global Change Biology, Vol. 19(No. 12): pp. 3808–3821.
  • Cullen, R.M., and Marshall, S.J. 2011. “Mesoscale temperature patterns in the rocky mountains and foothills region of Southern Alberta.” Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol. 49(No. 3): pp. 189–205.
  • Cutler, D.R., Edwards, T.C., Beard, K.H., Cutler, A., Hess, K.T., Gibson, J., and Lawler, J.J. 2007. “Random forests for classification in ecology.” Ecology, Vol. 88(No. 11): pp. 2783–2792.
  • Danby, R.K. 2011. “Monitoring forest-Tundra ecotones at multiple scales.” Geography Compass, Vol. 5(No. 9): pp. 623–640.
  • Danby, R.K., and Hik, D.S. 2007. “Variability, contingency and rapid change in recent subarctic alpine tree line dynamics.” Journal of Ecology, Vol. 95(No. 2): pp. 352–363.
  • Elliott, G.P., and Cowell, C.M. 2015. “Slope aspect mediates fine-scale tree establishment patterns at upper treeline during wet and dry periods of the 20th century.” Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol. 47(No. 4): pp. 681–692.
  • Esri 2014. ArcGIS 10.3 for desktop. Redlands, CA USA: Environmental Systems Research Institute.
  • Fenton, M. M., Waters, E. J., Pawley, S. M., Atkinson, N., Utting, D. J., & Mckay, K. 2013. “Surficial geology of Alberta.” Alberta Energy Regulator, AER/AGS Map 601, scale 1: 1 000 000.
  • Grace, J., Berninger, F., and Nagy, L. 2002. “Impacts of climate change on the tree line.” Annals of Botany, Vol. 90(No. 4): pp. 537–544.
  • Gregorutti, B., Michel, B., and Saint-Pierre, P. 2017. “Correlation and variable importance in random forests.” Statistics and Computing, Vol. 27(No. 3): pp. 659–678.
  • Harsch, M.A., Hulme, P.E., McGlone, M.S., and Duncan, R.P. 2009. “Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming.” Ecology Letters, Vol. 12(No. 10): pp. 1040–1049.
  • Holtmeier, F.K., and Broll, G. 2005. “Sensitivity and response of northern hemisphere altitudinal and polar treelines to environmental change at landscape and local scales.” Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 14 (No. 5): pp. 395–410.
  • Hopkinson, C., and Chasmer, L. 2009. “Testing LiDAR models of fractional cover across multiple forest ecozones.” Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 113(No. 1): pp. 275–288.
  • Hopkinson, C., Collins, T., Anderson, A., Pomeroy, J., and Spooner, I. 2012. “Spatial snow depth assessment using LiDAR transect samples and public GIS data layers in the Elbow River watershed.” Revue Canadienne Des Ressources Hydriques [Canadian Water Resources Journal], Vol. 37(No. 2): pp. 69–87.
  • Jensen, M.E., and Haise, H.R. 1963. “‘Estimating evapotranspiration from solar radiation.’ Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers.” Journal of the Irrigation and Drainage Division, Vol. 89: pp. 15–41.
  • Kienzle, S. 2004. “The effect of DEM raster resolution on first order, second order and compound terrain derivatives.” Transactions in GIS, Vol. 8(No. 1): pp. 83–111.
  • Körner, C. 1998. “A re-assessment of high elevation treeline positions and their explanation.” Oecologia, Vol. 115(No. 4): pp. 445–459.
  • Körner, C. 2012. Alpine treelines: functional ecology of the global high elevation tree limits. New York, NY, USA: Springer Science & Business Media.
  • Körner, C., and Paulsen, J. 2004. “A world-wide study of high altitude treeline temperatures.” Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 31(No. 5): pp. 713–732.
  • Kueppers, L.M., Conlisk, E., Castanha, C., Moyes, A.B., Germino, M.J., de Valpine, P., Torn, M.S., and Mitton, J.B. 2017. “Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest.” Global Change Biology, Vol. 23(No. 6): pp. 2383–2395.
  • Kullman, L., and Öberg, L. 2009. “Post-Little Ice Age tree line rise and climate warming in the Swedish Scandes: A landscape ecological perspective.” Journal of Ecology, Vol. 97(No. 3): pp. 415–429.
  • Luckman, B., and Kavanagh, T. 2000. “Impact of climate fluctuations on mountain environments in the Canadian Rockies.” Ambio: A Journal of the Human Environment, Vol. 29(No. 7): pp. 371–380.
  • Macias-Fauria, M., and Johnson, E.A. 2013. “Warming-induced upslope advance of subalpine forest is severely limited by geomorphic processes.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110(No. 20): pp. 8117–8122.
  • Malanson, G.P., Butler, D.R., Cairns, D.M., Welsh, T.E., and Resler, L.M. 2002. “Variability in an edaphic indicator in alpine tundra.” CATENA, Vol. 49(No. 3): pp. 203–215.
  • Mamet, S.D., and Kershaw, G.P. 2012. “Subarctic and alpine tree line dynamics during the last 400 years in north-western and central Canada.” Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 39(No. 5): pp. 855–868.
  • McCaffrey, D.R., and Hopkinson, C. 2017. “Assessing fractional cover in the alpine treeline ecotone using the WSL monoplotting tool and airborne LiDAR.” Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 43(No. 5): pp. 504–512.
  • McCaffrey, D., and Hopkinson, C. 2020. “Repeat oblique photography shows terrain and fire-exposure controls on century-scale canopy cover change in the alpine treeline ecotone.” Remote Sensing, Vol. 12(No. 10): pp. 1569.
  • McGuinness, J. L., and Bordne, E. F. 1972. A comparison of lysimeter-derived potential evapotranspiration with computed values. Washington, DC: US Dept. of Agriculture.
  • Moiseev, P. A., and Shiyatov, S. G. 2003. "Vegetation Dynamics at the Tree-Line Ecotone in the Ural Highlands, Russia" Alpine Biodiversity in Europe. Berlin, Germany: Springer Science and Business Media.
  • Oudin, L., Hervieu, F., Michel, C., Perrin, C., Andréassian, V., Anctil, F., and Loumagne, C. 2005. “Which potential evapotranspiration input for a lumped rainfall–runoff model?” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 303 (No. 1-4): pp. 290–306.
  • Paulsen, J., and Körner, C. 2014. “A climate-based model to predict potential treeline position around the globe.” Alpine Botany, Vol. 124(No. 1): pp. 1–12.
  • Pedregosa, F., Varoquaux, G., Gramfort, A., Michel, V., Thirion, B., Grisel, O., Blondel, M., Prettenhofer, P., Weiss, R., and Dubourg, V. 2011. “Scikit-learn: Machine learning in Python.” The Journal of Machine Learning Research, Vol. 12: pp. 2825–2830.
  • Pepin, N., Bradley, R.S., Diaz, H.F., Baraer, M., Caceres, E.B., Forsythe, N., Fowler, H., et al. 2015. “Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world.” Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5(No. 5): pp. 424–430.
  • Randin, C.F., Engler, R., Normand, S., Zappa, M., Zimmermann, N.E., Pearman, P.B., Vittoz, P., Thuiller, W., and Guisan, A. 2009. “Climate change and plant distribution: Local models predict high-elevation persistence.” Global Change Biology, Vol. 15(No. 6): pp. 1557–1569.
  • Rogeau, M. 2005. Fire regime study C5 FMU. Contract Report Prepared for Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, Alberta.
  • Rogeau, M. 2012. Fire History Study Castle River Watershed. Technical report prepared for Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development. Calgary, Alberta, Canada: Forest Protection Branch, Southern Rockies Wildfire Management Area.
  • Rogeau, M.-P., and Armstrong, G.W. 2017. “Quantifying the effect of elevation and aspect on fire return intervals in the Canadian Rocky Mountains.” Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 384: pp. 248–261.
  • Romme, W.H., and Knight, D.H. 1981. “Fire frequency and subalpine forest succession along a topographic gradient in Wyoming.” Ecology, Vol. 62(No. 2): pp. 319–326.
  • Roush, W., Munroe, J.S., and Fagre, D.B. 2007. “Development of a spatial analysis metho using ground-based repeat photography to detect changes in the alpine treeline ecotone.” Glacier National Park, Montana, USA" Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol. 39(No. 2): pp. 297–308.
  • Sakulich, J. 2015. “Reconstruction and spatial analysis of alpine treeline in the Elk Mountains.” Physical Geography, Vol. 36(No. 6): pp. 471–488.
  • Sanseverino, M.E., Whitney, M.J., and Higgs, E.S. 2016. “Exploring landscape change in mountain environments with the mountain legacy online image analysis toolkit.” Mountain Research and Development, Vol. 36(No. 4): pp. 407–416.
  • Schwörer, C., Henne, P.D., and Tinner, W. 2014. “A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest t dynamics.” Global Change Biology, Vol. 20(No. 5): pp. 1512–1526.
  • Silins, U., Stone, M., Emelko, M.B., and Bladon, K.D. 2009. “Sediment production following severe wildfire and post-fire salvage logging in the Rocky Mountain headwaters of the Oldman River Basin.” CATENA, Vol. 79(No. 3): pp. 189–197.
  • Springer, J., Ludwig, R., and Kienzle, S.W. 2015. “Impacts of forest fires and climate variability on the hydrology of an alpine medium sized catchment in the Canadian Rocky Mountains.” Hydrology, Vol. 2(No. 1): pp. 23–47.
  • Stine, M.B., and Butler, D.R. 2015. “Effects of fire on geomorphic factors and seedling site conditions within the alpine treeline ecotone.” Glacier National Park, MT" Catena, Vol. 132: pp. 37–44.
  • Stockdale, C.A., Bozzini, C., Macdonald, S.E., and Higgs, E. 2015. “Extracting ecological information from oblique angle terrestrial landscape photographs: Performance evaluation of the WSL Monoplotting Tool.” Applied Geography, Vol. 63 pp. 315–325.
  • Stockdale, C.A., Macdonald, S.E., and Higgs, E. 2019. “Forest closure and encroachment at the grassland interface: a century‐scale analysis using oblique repeat photography.” Ecosphere, Vol. 10 (No. 6): pp. e02774. doi:10.1002/ecs2.2774.
  • Strobl, C., Boulesteix, A.-L., Kneib, T., Augustin, T., and Zeileis, A. 2008. “Conditional variable importance for random forests.” BMC Bioinformatics, Vol. 9(No. 1): pp. 307.
  • Strobl, C., Boulesteix, A.-L., Zeileis, A., and Hothorn, T. 2007. “Bias in random forest variable importance measures: Illustrations, sources and a solution.” BMC Bioinformatics, Vol. 8(No. 1): pp. 25.
  • Timoney, K.P., and Mamet, S. 2020. “No treeline advance over the last 50 years in subarctic western and central Canada and the problem of vegetation misclassification in remotely sensed data.” Écoscience, Vol. 27(No. 2): pp. 93–106.
  • Timoney, K.P., Mamet, S.D., Cheng, R., Lee, P., Robinson, A.L., Downing, D., and Wein, R.W. 2019. “Tree cover response to climate change in the forest-Tundra of north-central Canada: Fire-driven decline, not northward advance.” Écoscience, Vol. 26(No. 2): pp. 133–148.
  • Tinner, W., and Theurillat, J.-P. 2003. “Uppermost limit, extent, and fluctuations of the timberline and treeline ecocline in the Swiss Central Alps during the past 11,500 years.” Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol. 35(No. 2): pp. 158–169.
  • Trant, A., Higgs, E., and Starzomski, B.M. 2020. “A century of high elevation ecosystem change in the Canadian Rocky Mountains.” Scientific Reports, Vol. 10(No. 1): pp. 1–10.
  • Trant, A.J., Starzomski, B.M., and Higgs, E. 2015. “A publically available database for studying ecological change in mountain ecosystems.” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 13(No. 4): pp. 187–187.
  • Walsh, S.J., and Butler, D.R. 1997. “Morphometric and multispectral image analysis of debris flows for natural hazard assessment.” Geocarto International, Vol. 12(No. 1): pp. 59–70.
  • Walsh, S.J., Butler, D.R., Allen, T.R., and Malanson, G.P. 1994. “Influence of snow patterns and snow avalanches on the alpine treeline ecotone.” Journal of Vegetation Science, Vol. 5(No. 5): pp. 657–672.
  • Weiss, D.J., Malanson, G.P., and Walsh, S.J. 2015. “Multiscale relationships between Alpine treeline elevation and hypothesized environmental controls in the Western United States.” Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 105(No. 3): pp. 437–453.
  • Wildfire Management Branch - Alberta Agriculture and Forestry. 2017. Fire history polygons C5 FMU. https://wildfire.alberta.ca/resources/historical-data/spatial-wildfire-data.aspx.
  • Zevenbergen, L.W., and Thorne, C.R. 1987. “Quantitative analysis of land surface topography.” Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Vol. 12(No. 1): pp. 47–56.