More Flexible Use of Survey Data on Expectations in Macroeconomic Models

REFERENCES

• Brown , B. W. and Maital , S. 1981 . “What Do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Expert's Expectations,” . Econometrica , 49 : 491 – 504 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carmichael , J. and Stebbing , P. W. 1983 . “Fisher's Paradox and the Theory of Interest,” . American Economic Review , 73 : 619 – 630 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Figlewski , S. and Wachtel , P. 1981 . “The Formation of Inflationary Expectations,” . Review of Economics and Statistics , 63 : 1 – 10 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fishe , R. P. H. and Lahiri , K. 1981 . “On the Estimates of Inflationary Expectations From Qualitative Responses,” . Journal of Econometrics , 16 : 89 – 102 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Foster , J. and Gregory , M. 1977 . “Inflationary Expectations: The Use of Quantitative Survey Data,” . Applied Economics , 9 : 319 – 329 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goldberger , A. 1972 . “Structural Equation Methods in the Social Sciences,” . Econometrica , 40 : 979 – 1001 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gottlieb , D. , Melnick , R. and Piterman , S. 1985 . “Inflationary Expectations in Israel: A Multiple Indicators Approach,” . Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , 3 : 112 – 117 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lahiri , K. 1981 . The Econometrics of Inflationary Expectations Amsterdam : North-Holland. .
   Google Scholar
• Lahiri , K. and Teigland , C. “A Study on the Subjective Probability Distributions of Forecasts from ASA–NBER Surveys,” . International Journal of Forecasting. , (in press)
   Google Scholar
• Levi , M. and Makin , J. H. 1979 . “Fisher, Phillips, Friedman and the Measured Impact of Inflation and Interest,” . Journal of Finance , 34 : 35 – 52 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Maddala , G. S. , Fishe , R. P. H. and Lahiri , K. 1983 . “A Time Series Analysis of Popular Price Expectations Data,”. ” . In Time Series Analysis of Economic Data Edited by: Zellner , A. 278 – 286 . Washington , DC : U.S. Bureau of the Census. .
   Google Scholar
• Makin , J. H. and Tanzi , V. 1983 . “The Level and Volatility of Interest Rates in the United States: The Roles of Expected Inflation, Real Rates and Taxes,” Washington , DC : National Bureau of Economic Research. . Working Paper 1167
   Google Scholar
• Melvin , M. 1982 . “Expected Inflation, Taxation and Interest Rates: The Delusion of Fiscal Illusion,” . American Economic Review , 72 : 841 – 845 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mincer , J. 1969 . “Models of Adaptive Forecasting,”. ” . In Economic Forecasts and Expectations Edited by: Mincer , J. New York : Columbia University Press. .
   Google Scholar
• Mishkin , F. S. “The Real Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation,” . Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy . Edited by: Brunner , K. and Meltzer , L. pp. 151 – 200 . New York : North-Holland. .
   Google Scholar
• Pearce , D. K. 1979 . “Comparing Survey and Rational Measures of Expected Inflation,” . Journal of Money Credit and Banking , 11 : 447 – 456 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peek , J. 1982 . “Interest Rates, Income Taxes and Anticipated Inflation,” . American Economic Review , 72 : 980 – 991 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peek , J. and Wilcox , J. 1983 . “The Postwar Stability of the Fisher Effect,” . Journal of Finance , 38 : 1111 – 1124 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rasche , R. and Tatom , J. A. 1977 . “Energy Resources and Potential GNP,” . Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review , 59 : 10 – 24 .
   Google Scholar
• Summers , L. H. 1983 . “The Non-Adjustment of Nominal Interest Rates: A Study of the Fisher Effect,”. ” . In Macroeconomics, Prices and Quantities Edited by: Tobin , J. 201 – 244 . Washington , DC : Brookings Institution. .
   Google Scholar
• Tanzi , V. 1980 . “Inflationary Expectations, Economic Activity, Taxes and Interest Rates,” . American Economic Review , 70 : 12 – 21 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wilcox , J. 1983 . “Why Real Interest Rates Were So Low in the 1970's,” . American Economic Review , 73 : 44 – 54 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zarnowitz , V. 1979 . “An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Forecasts of Aggregate Income, Output and the Price Level,” . Journal of Business , 52 : 1 – 33 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zellner , A. 1970 . “Estimation of Regression Relationships Containing Unobservable Variables,” . International Economic Review , 11 : 441 – 454 .
   Google Scholar
• Zellner , A. 1986 . “Bayesian Estimation and Prediction Using Asymmetric Loss Functions,” . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 81 : 446 – 451 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zellner , A. “Biased Predictors, Rationality and the Evaluation of Forecasts,” . Economics Letters. , (in press)
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar