Generalizing the Bayesian Vector Autoregression Approach for Regional Interindustry Employment Forecasting

REFERENCES

• Amirizadeh , H. and Todd , R. M. 1984 . “More Growth Ahead for Ninth District States,” . Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review , 8 : 8 – 17 .
   Google Scholar
• Bolton , R. 1985 . “Regional Econometric Models,” . Journal of Regional Science , 25 : 495 – 520 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cromwell , J. B. and Hannan , M. J. 1993 . “The Utility of Impulse Response Functions in Regional Analysis: Some Critical Issues,” . International Regional Science Review , 15 : 199 – 222 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dickey , D. A. and Fuller , W. A. 1979 . “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root,” . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 74 : 427 – 31 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dickey , D. A. and Fuller , W. A. 1981 . “Likelihood Ratio Tests for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root,” . Econometrica , 49 : 1057 – 1072 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Doan , T. , Litterman , R. B. and Sims , C. 1984 . “Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions,” . Econometric Reviews , 3 : 1 – 100 .
   Google Scholar
• Fawson , C. and Criddle , K. R. 1994 . “A Comparative Analysis of Time Series Approaches to Modeling Intersectoral and Intercounty Employment Linkages in Rural Regional Labor Markets,” . Journal of Regional Science , 34 : 57 – 74 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Garcia-Ferrer , A. , Highfield , R. A. , Palm , F. and Zellner , A. 1987 . “Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Pooled International Data,” . Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , 5 : 53 – 68 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gerking , S. D. 1976 . “Input—Output as a Simple Econometric Model,” . Review of Economics and Statistics , 58 : 274 – 282 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Glennon , D. and Lane , J. 1990 . “Input—Output Restrictions, Regional Structural Models and Econometric Forecasts,” . In New Directions in Regional Analysis: Multi-regional Approaches , Edited by: Anselin , L. and Madden , M. 133 – 145 . London : Bellhaven Press .
   Google Scholar
• Hamilton , J. D. 1994 . Time Series Analysis , Princeton , NJ : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Hurvich , C. M. and Tsai , C. 1989 . “Regression and Time Series Model Selection in Small Samples,” . Biometrika , 76 : 297 – 307 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Klein , L. R. 1989 . “Econometric Aspects of Input—Output Analysis,” . In Frontiers of Input—Output Analysis , Edited by: Miller , R. E. , Polenske , K. R. and Rose , A. Z. 3 – 11 . New York : Oxford University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Kraybill , D. S. and Dorfman , J. H. 1992 . “A Dynamic Interindustry Model of Regional Economic Growth,” . Journal of Regional Science , 32 : 1 – 17 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• LeSage , J. P. 1990 . “A Comparison of Forecasting Ability of ECM and VAR models,” . Review of Economics and Statistics , 72 : 664 – 671 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• LeSage , J. P. 1993 . “Modeling Dynamic Interindustry Regional Growth in the Presence of Structural Shifts and Outliers,” . Journal of Regional Science , 33 : 365 – 385 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• LeSage , J. P. and Magura , M. 1990 . “Using Bayesian Techniques for Data Pooling in Regional Payroll Forecasting,” . Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , 8 : 127 – 135 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• LeSage , J. P. and Magura , M. 1991 . “Using Interindustry Input—Output Relations as a Bayesian Prior in Employment Forecasting Models,” . International Journal of Forecasting , 7 : 231 – 238 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• LeSage , J. P. and Reed , J. D. 1989 . “The Dynamic Relationship Between Export, Local, and Total Area Employment,” . Regional Science and Urban Economics , 19 : 615 – 36 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Litterman , R. B. 1980 . “A Bayesian Procedure for Forecasting With Vector Autoregression,” , Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept, of Economics . working paper
   Google Scholar
• Litterman , R. B. 1986 . “Forecasting With Bayesian Vector Autoregressions—Five Years of Experience,” . Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , 4 : 25 – 38 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Magura , M. 1987 . “The Use of Input—Output Tables in Specifying Interindustry and Interregional Labor Market Linkages,” . Papers of the Regional Science Association , 62 : 117 – 23 .
   Google Scholar
• Magura , M. 1990 . “Using Input-Output Data in a Bayesian Autoregressive Forecasting Model,” . In New Directions in Regional Analysis: Multi-regional Approaches , Edited by: Anselin , L. and Madden , M. 133 – 145 . London : Bell haven Press .
   Google Scholar
• Mizon , G. E. 1984 . “The Encompassing Approach in Econometrics,” . In Econometrics and Quantitative Economics , Edited by: Hendry , D. F. and Wallis , K. F. 135 – 172 . Oxford , , U.K. : Basil Blackwell .
   Google Scholar
• Olson , J. 1989 . 1989 Micro IMPLAN Software Manual , Minneapolis-St. Paul , , MN : Regents .
   Google Scholar
• Racette , D. and Raynauld , J. 1994 . “BVAR Models With Economic Priors: An Application to the Propagation of U.S. Regional Cycles to Canada,” . Empirical Economics , 19 : 675 – 690 .
   Google Scholar
• Raynauld , J. and Simonato , J. G. 1993 . “Seasonal BVAR Models: A Search Along Some Time Domain Priors,” . Journal of Econometrics , 55 : 203 – 219 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rickman , D. S. and Schwer , R. K. 1993 . “A Systematic Comparison of the REMI and IMPLAN Model: The Case of Southern Nevada,” . Review of Regional Studies , 23 : 143 – 161 .
   Google Scholar
• Shoesmith , G. L. 1990 . “The Forecasting Accuracy of Regional Bayesian VAR Models With Alternative National Variable Choices,” . International Regional Science Review , 13 : 257 – 269 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sims , C. A. 1980 . “Macroeconomics and Reality,” . Econometrica , 48 : 1 – 48 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sims , C. A. , Stock , J. H. and Watson , M. W. 1990 . “Inference in Linear Time Series Models With Some Unit Roots,” . Econometrica , 58 : 113 – 144 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stevens , B. H. , Treyz , G. I. , Ehrlich , D. J. and Bower , J. R. 1983 . “A New Technique for the Construction of Non-Survey Regional Input—Output Models,” . International Regional Science Review , 8 : 271 – 286 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Theil , H. 1963 . “Use of Incomplete Prior Information in Regression Analysis,” . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 58 : 401 – 414 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Todd , R. M. 1984 . “Improving Economic Forecasting With Bayesian Vector Autoregression,” . Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review , 8 : 18 – 29 .
   Google Scholar
• Treyz , G. I. , Rickman , D. S. and Shao , G. 1992 . “The REMI Economic-Demographic Forecasting and Simulation Model,” . International Regional Science Review , 14 : 221 – 253 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• White , E. N. and Hewings , G. J. D. 1982 . “Space-Time Employment Modeling: Some Results Using Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimators,” . Journal of Regional Science , 22 : 283 – 302 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar