References
- deGraffenreid , Kenneth . 1986 . “Intelligence and the Oval Office,” . In Intelligence Requirements for the 1980's: Intelligence and Policy , Edited by: Godson , Roy . 23 Lexington, Mass. : Lexington Books .
- Hulnick , Arthur . 1987 . “Managing the Intelligence Analysis Process: Strategies for Playing the End Game,” . paper presented at the 1987 Meeting of the American Political Science Association . September 3–6 1987 , Chicago.
- Ransom , Harry Howe . 1980 . “Being Intelligent About Secret Intelligence Agencies,” . American Political Science Review , 80 : 141 – 148 .
- Heymann , Hans . 1985 . “Intelligence/Policy Relationships,” . In Intelligence: Policy and Process , Edited by: Mauer , Alfred , Tunstall , Marion and Keagle , James . 57 – 67 . Boulder : Westview .
- Betts , Richard . 1982 . Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planning , Washington, D.C. : Brookings .
- Nakamura , Robert and Smallwood , Frank . 1980 . The Politics of Policy Implementation , New York : St. Martin's Press . This listing is taken from
- Lowenthal , Mark . “The Burdensome Concept of Failure,” . In Intelligence: Policy and Process Edited by: Maurer . 47 – 48 .
- Hastedt , Glenn . 1987 . “The New Context of Intelligence Estimating,” . In Intelligence and Intelligence Policy in a Democratic Society , Edited by: Cimbala , Stephen . 47 – 68 . Dobbs Ferry, N.Y. : Transnational Publishers .
- Hughes , Thomas L. 1974 . “The Power to Speak and the Power to Listen: Reflections on Bureaucratic Politics and a Recommendation on Information Flows,” . In Secrecy and Foreign Policy , Edited by: Franck , Thomas and Weisband , Edward . 18 New York : New York University Press .
- Knightley , Phillip . 1987 . The Second Oldest Profession , New York : Norton . This is the central theme advanced by
- Hastedt , Glenn . 1988 . “Intelligence Failures and Terrorism,” . Conflict Quarterly , 8 : 7 – 22 .
- Ransom , Harry Howe . 1970 . The Intelligence Establishment , 8 Cambridge, Mass. : Harvard University Press .
- Handel , Michael . 1981 . The Diplomacy of Surprise , Cambridge, Mass. : The Harvard Center for International Affairs . On military surprise, see Betts, Surprise Attack; for a discussion of various gradations of diplomatic surprise, see
- Gazit , Shlomo . “Estimates and Fortune‐Telling in Intelligence Work,” . International Security , 36 – 56 .
- Ascher , William . 1978 . Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy‐Makers and Planners , 199 Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press .
- Hughes , Barry . 1985 . World Futures: A Critical Analysis of Alternatives , Baltimore : Johns Hopkins Press .
- Lowenthal, “The Burdensome Concept of Failure.”
- Wohlstetter , Roberta . 1962 . Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision , Stanford : Stanford University Press . The distinction between noise and signals is made in
- Betts . Surprise Attack 20
- Hughes , Thomas . 1976 . The Fate of Facts in the World of Men , Headline Series #233 36 New York : Foreign Policy Association .
- McGarvey , Patrick J. 1973 . C.I.A.: The Myth and the Madness , Baltimore : Penguin .
- Ascher . Forecasting 19
- Nakamura and Smallwood . The Politics of Policy Implementation 75
- House , Ernest . 1983 . “How We Think About Evaluation,” . In Philosophy of Evaluation , Edited by: House , Ernest . 5 – 25 . San Francisco : Jossey‐Bass . On the important role that metaphors and images play in how we evaluate programs and policies see
- Kent , Sherman . 1949 . Strategic Intelligence For American World Policy , 180 Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press .
- Ascher , William and Overholt , William . 1983 . Strategic Planning and Forecasting , 25 – 27 . New York : Wiley .