Advanced search
Publication Cover
Baylor University Medical Center Proceedings
The peer-reviewed journal of Baylor Scott & White Health
Volume 37, 2024 - Issue 3
Submit an article Journal homepage
42
Views
1
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Research: Gastroenterology

Predicting the risk of early intensive care unit admission for patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis using supervised machine learning

Hassam Alia Department of Gastroenterology, East Carolina University Brody School of Medicine, Greenville, North Carolina, USA
, MD,
Faisal Inayatb Department of Internal Medicine, Allama Iqbal Medical College, Lahore, Punjab, PakistanCorrespondence[email protected] @FaisalInayatMD
ORCID Iconhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7576-7319
, MBBSORCID Icon,
Rubaid Dhillonc Department of Gastroenterology, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
, MD,
Pratik Pateld Department of Gastroenterology, Mather Hospital and Hofstra University Zucker School of Medicine, Port Jefferson, New York, USA
, MD,
Arslan Afzala Department of Gastroenterology, East Carolina University Brody School of Medicine, Greenville, North Carolina, USA
, MD,
Christin Wilkinsona Department of Gastroenterology, East Carolina University Brody School of Medicine, Greenville, North Carolina, USA
, MD,
Attiq Ur Rehmane Department of Hepatology, Geisinger Wyoming Valley Medical Center, Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, USA
, MD,
Muhammad Sajeel Anwarf Department of Internal Medicine, UHS Wilson Medical Center, Johnson City, New York, USA
, MD,
Gul Nawazb Department of Internal Medicine, Allama Iqbal Medical College, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
, MD,
Ahtshamullah Chaudhryg Department of Internal Medicine, St. Dominic’s Hospital, Jackson, Mississippi, USA
, MD,
Junaid Rasul Awanb Department of Internal Medicine, Allama Iqbal Medical College, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
, MBBS,
Muhammad Sohaib Afzalh Department of Internal Medicine, Louisiana State University Health, Shreveport, Louisiana, USA
, MD,
Jayanta Samantai Department of Gastroenterology, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Research and Education, Chandigarh, Punjab, India
, MBBS,
Douglas G. Adlerj Center for Advanced Therapeutic Endoscopy, Porter Adventist Hospital, Centura Health, Denver, Colorado, USA
, MD &
Babu P. Mohank Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
, MD show all
Pages 437-447 | Received 02 Jan 2024, Accepted 19 Feb 2024, Published online: 21 Mar 2024

  • Mederos MA, Reber HA, Girgis MD. Acute pancreatitis: a review. JAMA. 2021;325(4):382–390. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.20317.
  • Xiao AY, Tan ML, Wu LM, et al. Global incidence and mortality of pancreatic diseases: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression of population-based cohort studies. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2016;1(1):45–55. doi:10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30004-8.
  • Iannuzzi JP, King JA, Leong JH, et al. Global incidence of acute pancreatitis is increasing over time: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Gastroenterology. 2022;162(1):122–134. doi:10.1053/j.gastro.2021.09.043.
  • Peery AF, Crockett SD, Murphy CC, et al. Burden and cost of gastrointestinal, liver, and pancreatic diseases in the United States: update 2021. Gastroenterology. 2022;162(2):621–644. doi:10.1053/j.gastro.2021.10.017.
  • Boxhoorn L, Voermans RP, Bouwense SA, et al. Acute pancreatitis. Lancet. 2020;396(10252):726–734. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31310-6.
  • Garg PK, Singh VP. Organ failure due to systemic injury in acute pancreatitis. Gastroenterology. 2019;156(7):2008–2023. doi:10.1053/j.gastro.2018.12.041.
  • de-Madaria E, Buxbaum JL. Advances in the management of acute pancreatitis. Nat Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2023;20(11):691–692. doi:10.1038/s41575-023-00808-w.
  • Chan KS, Shelat VG. Diagnosis, severity stratification and management of adult acute pancreatitis—current evidence and controversies. World J Gastrointest Surg. 2022;14(11):1179–1197. doi:10.4240/wjgs.v14.i11.1179.
  • Walkowska J, Zielinska N, Karauda P, et al. The pancreas and known factors of acute pancreatitis. J Clin Med. 2022;11(19):5565. doi:10.3390/jcm11195565.
  • Hu JX, Zhao CF, Wang SL, et al. Acute pancreatitis: a review of diagnosis, severity prediction and prognosis assessment from imaging technology, scoring system and artificial intelligence. World J Gastroenterol. 2023;29(37):5268–5291. doi:10.3748/wjg.v29.i37.5268.
  • Li Y, Zhang J, Zou J. Evaluation of four scoring systems in prognostication of acute pancreatitis for elderly patients. BMC Gastroenterol. 2020;20(1):165. doi:10.1186/s12876-020-01318-8.
  • Gurusamy KS, Debray TPA, Rompianesi G, Cochrane Upper GI and Pancreatic Diseases Group. Prognostic models for predicting the severity and mortality in people with acute pancreatitis. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2018;2018(5):CD013026. doi:10.1002/14651858.CD013026.
  • Tarján D, Hegyi P. Acute pancreatitis severity prediction: it is time to use artificial intelligence. J Clin Med. 2022;12(1):290. doi:10.3390/jcm12010290.
  • Kui B, Pintér J, Molontay R, et al. EASY-APP: an artificial intelligence model and application for early and easy prediction of severity in acute pancreatitis. Clin Transl Med. 2022;12(6):e842. doi:10.1002/ctm2.842.
  • Zhou Y, Han F, Shi XL, et al. Prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis using machine learning models. Postgrad Med. 2022;134(7):703–710. doi:10.1080/00325481.2022.2099193.
  • Kiss S, Pintér J, Molontay R, et al. Early prediction of acute necrotizing pancreatitis by artificial intelligence: a prospective cohort-analysis of 2387 cases. Sci Rep. 2022;12(1):7827. doi:10.1038/s41598-022-11517-w.
  • Yin M, Zhang R, Zhou Z, et al. Automated machine learning for the early prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis in hospitals. Front Cell Infect Microbiol. 2022;12:886935. doi:10.3389/fcimb.2022.886935.
  • Luo Z, Shi J, Fang Y, et al. Development and evaluation of machine learning models and nomogram for the prediction of severe acute pancreatitis. J Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2023;38(3):468–475. doi:10.1111/jgh.16125.
  • Zhang M, Pang M. Early prediction of acute respiratory distress syndrome complicated by acute pancreatitis based on four machine learning models. Clinics (Sao Paulo). 2023;78:100215. doi:10.1016/j.clinsp.2023.100215.
  • Yuan L, Ji M, Wang S, et al. Machine learning model identifies aggressive acute pancreatitis within 48 h of admission: a large retrospective study. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2022;22(1):312. doi:10.1186/s12911-022-02066.
  • Yuan L, Shen L, Ji M, et al. A new risk score to predict intensive care unit admission for patients with acute pancreatitis 48 hours after admission: multicenter study. Dig Dis Sci. 2023;68(5):2069–2079. doi:10.1007/s10620-022-07768-2.
  • Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. Overview of the Nationwide Readmissions Database (NRD). Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. https://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/nrdoverview.jsp. Accessed December 9, 2023.
  • von Elm E, Altman DG, Egger M, Pocock SJ, Gøtzsche PC, Vandenbroucke JP, STROBE Initiative. The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement: guidelines for reporting observational studies. Int J Surg. 2014;12(12):1495–1499. doi:10.1016/j.ijsu.2014.07.013.
  • Austin PC. Balance diagnostics for comparing the distribution of baseline covariates between treatment groups in propensity-score matched samples. Stat Med. 2009;28(25):3083–3107. doi:10.1002/sim.3697.
  • Steyerberg EW, Vergouwe Y. Towards better clinical prediction models: seven steps for development and an ABCD for validation. Eur Heart J. 2014;35(29):1925–1931. doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehu207.
  • Steyerberg EW, Vickers AJ, Cook NR, et al. Assessing the performance of prediction models: a framework for traditional and novel measures. Epidemiology. 2010;21(1):128–138. doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181c30fb2.
  • Fenlon C, O'Grady L, Doherty ML, Dunnion J. A discussion of calibration techniques for evaluating binary and categorical predictive models. Prev Vet Med. 2018;149:107–114. doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.11.018.
  • Nattino G, Finazzi S, Bertolini G. A new calibration test and a reappraisal of the calibration belt for the assessment of prediction models based on dichotomous outcomes. Stat Med. 2014;33(14):2390–2407. doi:10.1002/sim.6100.
  • Finazzi S, Poole D, Luciani D, Cogo PE, Bertolini G. Calibration belt for quality-of-care assessment based on dichotomous outcomes. PLoS One. 2011;6(2):e16110. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0016110.
  • Pavlidis P, Crichton S, Lemmich Smith J, et al. Improved outcome of severe acute pancreatitis in the intensive care unit. Crit Care Res Pract. 2013;2013:897107. doi:10.1155/2013/897107.
  • Lankisch PG, Apte M, Banks PA. Acute pancreatitis. Lancet. 2015;386(9988):85–96. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60649-8.
  • Fagenholz PJ, Castillo CF, Harris NS, Pelletier AJ, Camargo CA Jr. Increasing United States hospital admissions for acute pancreatitis, 1988-2003. Ann Epidemiol. 2007;17(7):491–497. doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2007.02.002.
  • Gabler NB, Ratcliffe SJ, Wagner J, et al. Mortality among patients admitted to strained intensive care units. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2013;188(7):800–806. doi:10.1164/rccm.201304-0622OC.
  • Wolbrink DRJ, van de Poll MCG, Termorshuizen F, et al. Trends in early and late mortality in patients with severe acute pancreatitis admitted to ICUs: a nationwide cohort study. Crit Care Med. 2022;50(10):1513–1521. doi:10.1097/CCM.0000000000005629.
  • Wu BU, Johannes RS, Sun X, Tabak Y, Conwell DL, Banks PA. The early prediction of mortality in acute pancreatitis: a large population-based study. Gut. 2008;57(12):1698–1703. doi:10.1136/gut.2008.152702.
  • Ranson JH. The timing of biliary surgery in acute pancreatitis. Ann Surg. 1979;189(5):654–663. doi:10.1097/00000658-197905000-00016.
  • Thapa R, Iqbal Z, Garikipati A, et al. Early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis using machine learning. Pancreatology. 2022;22(1):43–50. doi:10.1016/j.pan.2021.10.003.
  • Ueda T, Takeyama Y, Yasuda T, et al. Simple scoring system for the prediction of the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis. Surgery. 2007;141(1):51–58. doi:10.1016/j.surg.2006.05.008.
  • Fan ST, Choi TK, Lai EC, Wong J. Prediction of severity of acute pancreatitis: an alternative approach. Gut. 1989;30(11):1591–1595. doi:10.1136/gut.30.11.1591.
  • Kes P, Vucicević Z, Ratković-Gusić I, Fotivec A. Acute renal failure complicating severe acute pancreatitis. Ren Fail. 1996;18(4):621–628. doi:10.3109/08860229609047686.
  • Thandassery RB, Choudhary N, Bahl A, Kochhar R. Characterization of cardiac dysfunction by echocardiography in early severe acute pancreatitis. Pancreas. 2017;46(5):626–630. doi:10.1097/MPA.0000000000000820.
  • Raghu MG, Wig JD, Kochhar R, et al. Lung complications in acute pancreatitis. JOP. 2007;8(2):177–185.
  • Zhou H, Mei X, He X, Lan T, Guo S. Severity stratification and prognostic prediction of patients with acute pancreatitis at early phase: A retrospective study. Medicine (Baltimore). 2019;98(16):e15275. doi:10.1097/MD.0000000000015275.
  • Tenner S, Baillie J, DeWitt J, Vege SS, American College of Gastroenterology. American College of Gastroenterology guideline: management of acute pancreatitis. Am J Gastroenterol. 2013;108(9):1400–1415; 1416. doi:10.1038/ajg.2013.218.
  • Working Group IAP/APA Acute Pancreatitis Guidelines. IAP/APA evidence-based guidelines for the management of acute pancreatitis. Pancreatology. 2013;13(4 Suppl 2):e1-15–15. doi:10.1016/j.pan.2013.07.063.
  • Crockett SD, Wani S, Gardner TB, Falck-Ytter Y, Barkun AN, American Gastroenterological Association Institute Clinical Guidelines Committee. American Gastroenterological Association Institute Guideline on initial management of acute pancreatitis. Gastroenterology. 2018;154(4):1096–1101. doi:10.1053/j.gastro.2018.01.032.
  • Lankisch PG, Mahlke R, Blum T, et al. Hemoconcentration: an early marker of severe and/or necrotizing pancreatitis? A critical appraisal. Am J Gastroenterol. 2001;96(7):2081–2085. doi:10.1111/j.1572-0241.2001.03966.x.
  • Mounzer R, Langmead CJ, Wu BU, et al. Comparison of existing clinical scoring systems to predict persistent organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis. Gastroenterology. 2012;142(7):1476–1482. doi:10.1053/j.gastro.2012.03.005.
  • Marshall JC, Cook DJ, Christou NV, Bernard GR, Sprung CL, Sibbald WJ. Multiple organ dysfunction score: a reliable descriptor of a complex clinical outcome. Crit Care Med. 1995;23(10):1638–1652. doi:10.1097/00003246-199510000-00007.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Order Reprints Request Corporate Permissions

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

Request Academic Permissions

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.

Related research

People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read.

Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine.

Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.
Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab.