LABOUR DEMAND IN GERMANY BY INDUSTRIAL SECTOR, OCCUPATIONAL FIELD AND QUALIFICATION UNTIL 2025 – MODEL CALCULATIONS USING THE IAB/INFORGE MODEL

References

• Ahlert, G., M. Distelkamp, C. Lutz, B. Meyer, A. Mönnig and M.I. Wolter (2009) Das IAB/INFORGE-Modell. In: P. Schnur and G. Zika (eds.) Das IAB/INFORGE-Modell. Ein sektorales makroökonometrisches Projektions- und Simulationsmodell zur Vorausschätzung des längerfristigen Arbeitskräftebedarfs. Nuremberg, IAB-Bibliothek, Vol. 318, 15–175 ( in German).
   Google Scholar
• Almon, C. (1991) The INFORUM Approach to Interindustry Modelling. Economic Systems Research, 3, 1–7. doi: 10.1080/09535319100000001
   Google Scholar
• Authoring Group Educational Reporting (2010) Education in Germany 2010 – An Indicator-Based Report Including an Analysis Demographic Challenges for the Education System. Bielefeld, Bertelsmann.
   Google Scholar
• Autor, D.H., L.F. Katz and M.S. Kearney (2006) The Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 92, 189–194.
   Google Scholar
• Cedefop (2009) Future Skill Needs in Europe. Medium-Term Forecast Background Technical Report. Luxembourg, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
   Google Scholar
• Cedefop (2010) Skills Supply and Demand in Europe. Medium-Term Forecast Up to 2020. European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training. Luxembourg, Publication Office of the European Union.
   Google Scholar
• Cedefop (2011) Labour-Market Polarisation and Elementary Occupations in Europe. Blip or Long-Term Trend? Research Paper No. 9. Luxembourg, Publications Office of the European Union.
   Google Scholar
• Chennells, L. and J. van Reenen (1999) Has Technology Hurt Less Skilled Workers? An Econometric Survey of the Effects on the Structure of Pay and Jobs. IFS Working Papers W99/27. London, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
   Google Scholar
• Cörvers, F. and A. Dupuy (2009) Estimating Employment Dynamics Across Occupations and Sector of Industry. Meteor RM/09/046. Maastricht, Maastricht University.
   Google Scholar
• Deaton, A. and J. Muelbauer (1980) An Almost Ideal Demand System. American Economic Review, 70, 312–326.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Distelkamp, M., F. Hohmann, C. Lutz, B. Meyer and M.I. Wolter (2003) Das IAB/INFORGE-Modell: Ein neuer ökonometrischer Ansatz gesamtwirtschaftlicher und länderspezifischer Szenarien. Nuremberg, Beiträge zur Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (BeitrAB) 275) (in German).
   Google Scholar
• Dunkel, T. (2010) Anticipating New Skills for New Jobs in Europe. Zeitschrift für Berufs- und Wirtschaftspädagogik, 24, 235–280.
   Google Scholar
• Dunn, E. (1960) A Statistical and Analytical Technique for Regional Analysis. Papers of the Regional Science Association, 6, 97–112. doi: 10.1111/j.1435-5597.1960.tb01705.x
   Google Scholar
• Dustmann, C., J. Ludsteck and U. Schönberg (2009) Revisiting the German Wage Structure. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124, 843–881. doi: 10.1162/qjec.2009.124.2.843
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• European Commission (2010) European Economic Forecast Autumn 2010, Commission Staff Working Document. Brussels, European Commission. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs.
   Google Scholar
• Eurostat (2008) Eurostat Manual of Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables. Eurostat Methodologies and Working Papers, Luxembourg.
   Google Scholar
• Fuchs, J. and G. Zika (2010) Arbeitsmarktbilanz bis 2025. Demografie gibt die Richtung vor. IAB-Kurzbericht 12/2010, Nuremberg (in German).
   Google Scholar
• Goos, M. and A. Manning (2007) Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89, 118–133. doi: 10.1162/rest.89.1.118
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goos, M., A. Manning and A. Salomons (2009) The Polarization of the European Labour Market. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 99, 58–63. doi: 10.1257/aer.99.2.58
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Griliches, Z. (1969) Capital-skill Complementarity. Review of Economic Statistics, 51, 465–468. doi: 10.2307/1926439
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Konsortium Bildungsberichterstattung (2006) Bildung in Deutschland. Ein indikatorengestützter Bericht mit einer Analyse zur Bildung und Migration. Bielefeld, Bertelsmann (in German).
   Google Scholar
• Kratena, K. and M. Wüger (2006) PROMETEUS: Ein multisektorale makroökonomisches Modell der österreichischen Wirtschaft, WIFO-Monatsbericht 3/2006, 187–205 (in German).
   Google Scholar
• Leontief, W. and F. Duchin (1986) The Future Impact of Automation on Workers. New York, Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Meagher, G.A., P.D. Adams and J. Horridge (2000) Applied General Equilibrium Modelling and Labour Market Forecasting. Melbourne, Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University.
   Google Scholar
• Meyer, B., M. Distelkamp and M.I. Wolter (2007b) Material Efficiency and Economic-Environmental Sustainability. Results of Simulations for Germany with the Model PANTA RHEI. Ecological Economics, 63, 192–200. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.10.017
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meyer, B., C. Lutz, P. Schnur and G. Zika (2007a) National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies. A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany. Economic Systems Research, 19, 37–55. doi: 10.1080/09535310601164765
   Google Scholar
• Nelson, R.R. and S.G. Winter (1982) An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. Cambridge, Harvard University Press.
   Google Scholar
• OECD (2010) OECD Economic Outlook. Vol. 2010/2. Paris, OECD Publishing.
   Google Scholar
• O'Mahony, M. and M.P. Timmer (2009) Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database. Economic Journal, 119, F374–F403. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2009.02280.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peichl, A. (2005) Die Evaluation von Steuerreform durch Simulationsmodelle. Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge, 5, Universität Köln (in German).
   Google Scholar
• Reinberg, A. and M. Hummel (2007) Schwierige Fortschreibung: Der Trend bleibt- Geringqualifizierte sind häufiger arbeitslos, IAB-Kurzbericht 18/2007. Nuremberg (in German).
   Google Scholar
• Shah, C. and M. Long (2010) Forecasts of Labour and Skills Requirements in the Service Industries, 2010–15. Report Prepared for Services Skills Australia, Research Report. Sydney, Centre for the Economics of Education and Training.
   Google Scholar
• Spalletti, S. (2008) The History of Manpower Forecasting in Modelling Labour Markets, Working Paper 18, Macerata, University of Macerata.
   Google Scholar
• Spitz, A. (2006) Technical Change, Job Tasks, and Rising Educational Demands: Looking Outside the Wage Structure. Journal of Labour Economics, 24, 235–270. doi: 10.1086/499972
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tiemann, M., H.-J. Schade, R. Helmrich, A. Hall, U. Braun and P. Bott (2009) Berufsfeld-Definitionen des BIBB auf Basis der Klassifikation der Berufe 1992. Wissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere des BIBB 105, Bonn (in German).
   Google Scholar
• Tinbergen, J. and H. Correa (1962) Quantitative Adaption of Education to Accelerated Growth. International Review for Social Sciences, 15, 776–786.
   Google Scholar
• UKCES (2008) Working Futures 2007–2017. Technical Report 2008, UK Commission for Employment and Skills, Coventry, Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick.
   Google Scholar
• West, G. (1995) Comparison of Input-Output, Input-Output Econometric and Computable General Equilibrium Impact Models at the Regional Level. Economic Systems Research, 7, 209–227. doi: 10.1080/09535319500000021
   Google Scholar
• Wilson, R.A. (2001) Forecasting Skill Requirements at National and Company Level. In: P. Descy and M. Tessaring (eds.) Training in Europe. Second Report on Vocational Training Research in Europe 2000: Background Report. Luxembourg, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 561–609.
   Google Scholar
• Wilson, R. and R. Lindley (2007) Pan-European Skills Forecasts. In: A. Zukersteinova and O. Strietska-Ilina (eds.) Towards European Skill Needs Forecasting. Luxembourg, Publication Office of the European Union, 7–26.
   Google Scholar
• Zukersteinova, A. and O. Strietska-Ilina (eds) (2007) Towards European Skill Needs Forecasting. Luxembourg, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
   Google Scholar