9,705
Views
8
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Simultaneous supply and demand constraints in input–output networks: the case of Covid-19 in Germany, Italy, and Spain

ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Pages 273-293 | Received 19 Jan 2021, Accepted 04 May 2021, Published online: 30 Jul 2021

References

  • Arto I., Andreoni V., & Rueda Cantuche J. M. (2015). Global impacts of the automotive supply chain disruption following the Japanese earthquake of 2011. Economic Systems Research, 27(3), 306–323. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2015.1034657
  • Avelino A. F., & Dall'erba S. (2019). Comparing the economic impact of natural disasters generated by different input–output models: An application to the 2007 Chehalis river flood (wa). Risk Analysis, 39(1), 85–104. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.2019.39.issue-1
  • Bak P., Chen K., Scheinkman J., & Woodford M. (1993). Aggregate fluctuations from independent sectoral shocks: Self-organized criticality in a model of production and inventory dynamics. Ricerche economiche, 47(1), 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/0035-5054(93)90023-V
  • Baqaee D., & Farhi E. (2020). Nonlinear production networks with an application to the Covid-19 crisis (Technical Report 27281). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Barrot J.-N., Grassi B., & Sauvagnat J. (2020, April 10). Sectoral effects of social distancing. Covid Economics, 3, 85–102.
  • Battiston S., Gatti D. D., Gallegati M., Greenwald B., & Stiglitz J. E. (2007). Credit chains and bankruptcy propagation in production networks. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(6), 2061–2084. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2007.01.004
  • Bonadio B., Huo Z., Levchenko A. A., & Pandalai-Nayar N. (2020). Global supply chains in the pandemic (CEPR DP14766).
  • Borsos A., & Mero B. (2020). Shock propagation in the banking system with real economy feedback (Tech. Rep.). Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Borsos A., & Stancsics M. (2020). Unfolding the hidden structure of the Hungarian multi-layer firm network (Tech. Rep.). Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Carvalho V. M., Hansen S., Rodrigo T., Rodriguez Mora S., & Ruiz de Aguirre P. (2020). Tracking the Covid-19 crisis with high-resolution transaction data.
  • Chen H., Qian W., & Wen Q. (2020). The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on consumption: Learning from high frequency transaction data. Available at SSRN 3568574.
  • Chetty R., Friedman J. N., Hendren N., Stepner M., & The Opportunity Insights Team (2020). How did Covid-19 and stabilization policies affect spending and employment? A new real-time economic tracker based on private sector data (Tech. Rep.). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Congressional Budget Office (2006). Potential influenza pandemic: Possible macroeconomic effects and policy issues. https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/109th-congress-2005-2006/reports/12-08-birdflu.pdf
  • De Mesnard L. (2009). Is the Ghosh model interesting? Journal of Regional Science, 49(2), 361–372. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.2009.49.issue-2
  • del Rio-Chanona R. M., Mealy P., Pichler A., Lafond F., & Farmer J. D. (2020). Supply and demand shocks in the Covid-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(1), 94–137. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/graa033
  • Demir B., Javorcik B., Michalski T. K., & Ors E. (2018). Financial constraints and propagation of shocks in production networks (Working Paper).
  • Diem C., Borsos A., Reisch T., Kertész J., & Thurner S. (2021). Quantifying firm-level economic systemic risk from nation-wide supply networks. Preprint, arXiv:2104.07260.
  • Dietzenbacher E., & Miller R. E. (2015). Reflections on the inoperability input–output model. Economic Systems Research, 27(4), 478–486. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2015.1052375
  • Dingel J., & Neiman B. (2020). How many jobs can be done at home? Covid Economics, 1.
  • Duchin F. (2005). A world trade model based on comparative advantage with M regions, N goods, and K factors. Economic Systems Research, 17(2), 141–162. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535310500114903
  • Duchin F., & Levine S. H. (2012). The rectangular sector-by-technology model: Not every economy produces every product and some products may rely on several technologies simultaneously. Journal of Economic Structures, 1(1), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1186/2193-2409-1-3
  • Fadinger H., & Schymik J. (2020). The effects of working from home on Covid-19 infections and production a macroeconomic analysis for Germany.
  • Fana M., Tolan S., Perez S. T., Brancati M. C. U., & Macias E. F. (2020). The Covid confinement measures and eu labour markets (Tech. Rep.). Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
  • Galbusera L., & Giannopoulos G. (2018). On input-output economic models in disaster impact assessment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, 186–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.04.030
  • Ghosh A. (1958). Input-output approach in an allocation system. Economica, 25(97), 58–64. https://doi.org/10.2307/2550694
  • Gruver G. W. (1989). On the plausibility of the supply-driven input-output model: A theoretical basis for input-coefficient change. Journal of Regional Science, 29(3), 441–450. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.1989.29.issue-3
  • Guan D., Wang D., Hallegatte S., Davis S. J., Huo J., Li S., Bai Y., Lei T., Xue Q., Coffman D., Cheng D., Chen P., Liang X., Xu B., Lu X., Wang S., Hubacek K., & Gong P. (2020). Global supply-chain effects of Covid-19 control measures. Nature Human Behaviour, 4, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8
  • Haimes Y. Y., & Jiang P. (2001). Leontief-based model of risk in complex interconnected infrastructures. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 7(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2001)7:1(1)
  • Hallegatte S. (2008). An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of katrina. Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 28(3), 779–799. https://doi.org/10.1111/risk.2008.28.issue-3
  • Hallegatte S. (2014). Modeling the role of inventories and heterogeneity in the assessment of the economic costs of natural disasters. Risk Analysis, 34(1), 152–167. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.2014.34.issue-1
  • Henriet F., Hallegatte S., & Tabourier L. (2012). Firm-network characteristics and economic robustness to natural disasters. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36(1), 150–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.10.001
  • Huneeus F. (2018). Production network dynamics and the propagation of shocks (Tech. Rep.).
  • Inoue H., & Todo Y. (2019). Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks. Nature Sustainability, 2(9), 841–847. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0351-x
  • Inoue H., & Todo Y. (2020). The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of Covid-19. PloS One, 15(9), e0239251. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0239251
  • Kerschner C., & Hubacek K. (2009). Erratum to “assessing the suitability of input-output analysis for enhancing our understanding of potential effects of peak-oil”. Energy, 34(10), 1662–1668. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2009.06.043
  • Klimek P., Poledna S., & Thurner S. (2019). Quantifying economic resilience from input–output susceptibility to improve predictions of economic growth and recovery. Nature Communications, 10(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09357-w
  • Koks E. E., Bočkarjova M., de Moel H., & Aerts J. C. (2015). Integrated direct and indirect flood risk modeling: Development and sensitivity analysis. Risk Analysis, 35(5), 882–900. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12300
  • Koks E. E., & Thissen M. (2016). A multiregional impact assessment model for disaster analysis. Economic Systems Research, 28(4), 429–449. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2016.1232701
  • Koren M., & Pet o´ R. (2020). Business disruptions from social distancing. PloS One, 15(9), e0239113. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0239113
  • Kumar A., Chakrabarti A. S., Chakraborti A., & Nandi T. (2021). Distress propagation on production networks: Coarse-graining and modularity of linkages. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 568, Article ID: 125714. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2020.125714
  • Li J., Crawford-Brown D., Syddall M., & Guan D. (2013). Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis. Risk Analysis, 33(10), 1908–1923. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12040
  • Mandel A., & Veetil V. P. (2020a). Disequilibrium propagation of quantity constraints: Application to the Covid lockdowns. Available at SSRN 3631014.
  • Mandel A., & Veetil V. P. (2020b). The economic cost of Covid lockdowns: An out-of-equilibrium analysis. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 4(3), 431–451. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-020-00066-z
  • Oosterhaven J. (1988). On the plausibility of the supply-driven input-output model. Journal of Regional Science, 28(2), 203–217. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.1988.28.issue-2
  • Oosterhaven J. (2017). On the limited usability of the inoperability IO model. Economic Systems Research, 29(3), 452–461. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2017.1301395
  • Oosterhaven J., & Bouwmeester M. C. (2016). A new approach to modeling the impact of disruptive events. Journal of Regional Science, 56(4), 583–595. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12262
  • Peydró J.-L., Jiménez G., Huremovic K., Moral-Benito E., & Vega-Redondo F. (2020). Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers.
  • Pichler A., Pangallo M., Lafond F., & Farmer J. D. (2020). Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy? Covid Economics, 23, 79–151.
  • Pichler A., Pangallo M., Lafond F., & Farmer J. D. (2021). In and out of lockdown: Propagation of supply and demand shocks in a dynamic input-output model (Working paper).
  • Poledna S., Hochrainer-Stigler S., Miess M. G., Klimek P., Schmelzer S., Sorger J., Shchekinova E., Rovenskaya E., Linnerooth-Bayer J., Dieckmann U., & Thurner S. (2018). When does a disaster become a systemic event? Estimating indirect economic losses from natural disasters. Preprint, arXiv:1801.09740.
  • Poledna S., Miess M. G., & Hommes C. H. (2019). Economic forecasting with an agent-based model. Available at SSRN 3484768.
  • Santos J. R., & Haimes Y. Y. (2004). Modeling the demand reduction input-output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures. Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 24(6), 1437–1451. https://doi.org/10.1111/risk.2004.24.issue-6
  • Spray J. (2017). Reorganise, replace or expand? The role of the supply-chain in first-time exporting (Tech. Rep.).
  • Steenge A. E., & Bočkarjova M. (2007). Thinking about imbalances in post-catastrophe economies: An input–output based proposition. Economic Systems Research, 19(2), 205–223. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535310701330308
  • Steinback S. R. (2004). Using ready-made regional input-output models to estimate backward-linkage effects of exogenous output shocks. Review of Regional Studies, 34(1), 57–71. https://doi.org/10.52324/001c.8369
  • Timmer M. P., Dietzenbacher E., Los B., Stehrer R., & De Vries G. J. (2015). An illustrated user guide to the world input–output database: The case of global automotive production. Review of International Economics, 23(3), 575–605. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.2015.23.issue-3