Extreme exchange rate dynamics and export trade in the selected oil-exporting countries in Africa. Multiple asymmetric threshold non-linear ARDL approach

References

• Akoto, L., and D. Sakyi. 2019. “Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Trade Balance in Post-Liberalization Ghana.” Foreign Trade Review 54: 177–205. doi:10.1177/0015732519851632.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alege, P. O., and E. S. Osabuohien. 2015. “Trade–Exchange Rate Nexus in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Analysis.” Foreign Trade Review 50 (3): 151–167. DOI: 10.1177/0015732515589440.
   Google Scholar
• Arize, A. C. 1994. “Cointegration Test of the Long run Relation Between the Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance.” International Economic Journal 8 (3): 1–9.
   Google Scholar
• Arize, C. 1997. “Conditional Exchange Rate Volatility and the Volume of Foreign Trade: Evidence from Seven Industrialized Countries.” Southern Economic Journal 64: 235–254.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arize, A. C., J. Malindretos, and E. U. Igwe. 2017. “Do Exchange Rate Changes Improve the Trade Balance: An Asymmetric Nonlinear Cointegration Approach.” International Review of Economics & Finance 49: 313–326.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arize, A. C., T. Osang, and D. J. Slottje. 2008. “Exchange-rate Volatility in Latin America and its Impact on Foreign Trade.” International Review of Economics & Finance 17 (1): 33–44.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Asteriou, D., K. Masatci, and K. Pılbeam. 2016. “Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade: International Evidence from the MINT Countries.” Economic Modelling 58 (11): 133–140.
   Google Scholar
• Baek, J. 2014. “Exchange Rate Effects on Korea–US Bilateral Trade: A New Look.” Research in Economics 68 (3): 214–221.
   Google Scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M. 1985. “Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 500–504.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M. 1986. “Determinants of International Trade Flows: The Case of Developing Countries.” Journal of Development Economics 20 (1): 107–123.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and J. Alse. 1994. “Short-run Versus Long-run Effects of Devaluation: Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration.” Eastern Economic Journal 20 (4): 453–464.
   Google Scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and A. C. Arize. 2019. “U.” S.-Africa Trade Balance and the J-Curve: An Asymmetry Analysis. The International Trade Journal 33: 322–343. doi:10.1080/08853908.2019.1570881.
   Google Scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and A. C. Arize. 2020. “Asymmetry Cointegration and the J-Curve: New Evidence from Africa.” Journal of Economic Studies 47: 969–984. doi:10.1108/JES-09-2018-0333.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and J. Baek. 2019. “Asymmetry Cointegration and the J-Curve: New Evidence from Korean Bilateral Trade Balance Models with her 14 Partners.” Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy 24: 66–81. doi:10.1080/13547860.2018.1469589.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and A. Gelan. 2018. “Exchange-rate Volatility and International Trade Performance: Evidence from 12 African Countries.” Economic Analysis and Policy 58: 14–21.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and G. Goswami. 2004. “Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Japan’s Bilateral Trade Flows.” Japan and the World Economy 16 (1): 1–15.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., H. Harvey, and S. W. Hegerty. 2013. “The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade Between the US and Brazil.” The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 25 (2): 70–93.
   Google Scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., J. Iqbal, and S. U. Khan. 2017. “Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Commodity Trade Between Pakistan and the US.” Economic Change and Restructuring 50 (2): 161–187.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and O. Kara. 2003. “Relative Responsiveness of Trade Flows to a Change in Prices and Exchange Rate.” International Review of Applied Economics 17 (3): 293–308.
   Google Scholar
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and F. Niroomand. 1998. “Long-run Price Elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner Condition Revisited.” Economics Letters 61 (1): 101–109.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baron, D. P. 1976. “Flexible Exchange Rates, Forward Markets, and the Level of Trade.” The American Economic Review 66 (3): 253–266.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boug, P., and A. Fagereng. 2010. “Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Performance: A Cointegrated VAR Approach.” Applied Economics 42 (7): 851–864.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bredin, D., S. Fountas, and E. Murphy. 2003. “An Empirical Analysis of Short-run and Long-run Irish Export Functions: Does Exchange Rate Volatility Matter?” International Review of Applied Economics 17 (2): 193–208.
   Google Scholar
• Broll, U., and B. Eckwert. 1999. “Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade.” Southern Economic Journal 66: 178–185.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bussiere. 2013. “Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices: The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 75 (5): 731–758.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chang, B. H., S. K. O. Rajput, and N. A. Bhutto. 2019a. “Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the US Exports: A new Evidence from Multiple Threshold Nonlinear ARDL Model.” Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy 10 (2): 1950009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chang, B. H., S. K. O. Rajput, and N. A. Bhutto. 2019b. “Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the US Exports: A New Evidence from Multiple Threshold Nonlinear ARDL Model.” Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy 10 (2): 1–26.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chang, B. H., S. K. O. Rajput, N. A. Bhutto, and Z. Abro. 2020. “Asymmetric Effect of Extreme Changes in the Exchange Rate Volatility on the US Imports: Evidence from Multiple Threshold Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed lag Model.” Studies in Economics and Finance 37 (2): 293–309.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cheung, Y., and R. Sengupta. 2013. “Impact of Exhage Rate Movements on Exports. An Analysis of Indian non-Financial Sector Firms.” Journal of International Money and Finance 39: 231–245.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chit, M. M., M. Rizov, and D. Willenbockel. 2010. “Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies.” The World Economy 33 (2): 239–263.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clark, P. B. 1973. “Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, and the Level of International Trade.” Economic Inquiry 11 (3): 302–313.
   Google Scholar
• Coric, B., and G. Pugh. 2010. “The Effects of Exchange Rate Variability on International Trade: A Meta-Regression Analysis.” Applied Economics 42: 2631–2644.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dornbusch, R. 1973. “Devaluation, Money, and Nontraded Goods.” The American Economic Review 63 (5): 871–880.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hondroyiannis, G., P. A. V. B. Swamy, G. Tavlas, and M. Ulan. 2008. “Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports.” Review of World Economics 144 (1): 151–180.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hooper, P., and S. W. Kohlhagen. 1978. “The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Prices and Volume of International Trade.” Journal of International Economics 8 (4): 483–511.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Houthakker, H. S., and S. P. Magee. 1969. “Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 111–125.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hunegnaw, F. B., and S. Kim. 2017. “Foreign Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Dynamics in East African Countries.” Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, doi:10.1080/09638199.2017.1327611.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Johnson, H. G. 1977. “The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments: A Nontechnical Guide.” Journal of International Economics 7 (3): 251–268.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Keho, Y. 2021. “Effects of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Cote D’Ivoire: Evidence from Threshold Nonlinear ARDL Model.” The Theoretical Economics Letters 11: 507–521. doi:10.4236/tel.2021.113034.
   Google Scholar
• Kim, A. 2009. “An Empirical Analysis of Korea’s Trade Imbalances with the US and Japan.” Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy 14 (3): 211–226.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kodongo, O., and K. Ojah. 2013. “Real Exchange Rates, Trade Balance and Capital Flows in Africa.” Journal of Economics and Business 66 (2013): 22–46.
   Google Scholar
• Lerner, A. 1944. Economics of Control: Principle of Welfare Economics. New York, USA: Macmillan.
   Google Scholar
• Magee, S. P. 1973. “Factor Market Distortions, Production, and Trade: A Survey.” Oxford Economic Papers 25 (1): 1–43.
   Google Scholar
• Mathur, S. K., and A. Shekhawat. 2021. “Exchange Rate Nonlinearities in India’s Exports to the USA.” Studies in Economics and Finance 38 (1): 1–12.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McKenzie, M.-D. 1998. ““The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Australian Trade Flows”. Journal of International Financial Markets.” Institutions and Money 8: 21–38.
   Google Scholar
• McKenzie, M. D., and R. D. Brooks. 1997. “The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on German – US Trade Flows. Journal of International Financial Markets.” Institutions and Money 7: 73–87.
   Google Scholar
• Metzler, L. A. 1945. “Stability of Multiple Markets: The Hicks Conditions.” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 13 (4): 277–292.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Musila, J., and H. Al-Zyoud. 2012. “Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade Flows in sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Evidence.” Journal of African Business 13 (2): 115–122.
   Google Scholar
• Narayan, S., and P. K. Narayan. 2004. “Determinants of Demand for Fiji’s Exports: An Empirical Investigation.” The Developing Economies 42 (1): 95–112.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nathaniel, S. P. 2020. “Does Exchange Rate Have Asymmetric Impact on Trade Balance?” Fresh Insights from Combined Cointegration. Studies in Business and Economics 15: 259–269. doi:10.2478/sbe-2020-0019.
   Google Scholar
• Okere, K. I., O. B. Muoneke, and F. C. Onuoha. 2021. “Symmetric and Asymmetric Effects of Crude oil Price and Exchange Rate on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria: Evidence from Multiple Structural Break and NARDL Analysis.” The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 30 (6): 930–956.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ozcelebi, O. 2019. “Assessment of Asymmetric Effects on Exchange Market Pressure: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Countries.” North American Journal of Economics and Finance 48: 498–513.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ozcelebi, O., K. Tokmakcioglu, and E. Su. 2021. “Revisiting the Asymmetric Impacts of the Exchange Market Pressure on the Inflation, Interest Rate and Foreign Trade Balance in Eastern Europe.” Empirical Economics 61: 2517–2538.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ozturk, I., and H. Kalyoncu. 2009. “Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: An Empirical Investigation from Cross-Country Comparison.” African Development Review 21 (3): 499–513.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pal, D., and S. K. Mitra. 2015. “Asymmetric Impact of Crude Price on oil Product Pricing in the United States: An Application of Multiple Threshold Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed lag Model.” Economic Modelling 51: 436–443.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith. 2001. “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationship.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 16 (3): 289–326.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ricardo, D.. 1817. Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. London: G. Bell & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Robinson, J. 1947. Essays in the Theory of Employment. Oxford, UK: Basil Blackwell.
   Google Scholar
• Rose, A. K., and J. L. Yellen. 1989. “Is There a J-Curve?” Journal of Monetary Economics 24 (1): 53–68.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Senadza, B., and D. D. Diaba. 2017. “Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Journal of African Trade 4 (1–2): 20–36.
   Google Scholar
• Serenis, D., and N. Tsounis. 2014. “Does Exchange Rate Variation Effect African Trade Flows?” Procedia Economics and Finance 14: 565–574.
   Google Scholar
• Shahbaz, M., A. Lahiani, S. Abosedra, and S. Hammoudeh. 2018. “The Role of Globalization in Energy Consumption: A Quantile Cointegrating Regression Approach.” Energy Economics 71: 161–170.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shin, Y., B. Yu, and M. Greenwood-Nimmo. 2014. “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework.” In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, 281–314. New York, NY: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Shirvani, H., and B. Wilbratte. 1997. “The Relationship Between the Real Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance: An Empirical Reassessment.” International Economic Journal 11 (1): 39–50.
   Google Scholar
• Smith, A. 1776. Wealth of Nations. University of Chicago Bookstore.
   Google Scholar
• Uche, E., B. H. Chang, and L. Effiom. 2020. “Household Consumption and Exchange Rate Extreme Dynamics: Multiple Asymmetric Threshold non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed lag Model Perspective.” International Journal of Finance & Economics 1–14.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Verheyen, F. 2013. “Exchange Rate Nonlinearities in EMU Exports to the US.” Economic Modelling 32: 66–76.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Viaene, J. M., and C. de Vries. 1992. “International Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility.” European Economic Review 36 (6): 1311–1321.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhang, W. 2008. International Trade Theory, 1st Edition. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer.
   Google Scholar