697
Views
52
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Hindsight bias: How knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past

, &
Pages 357-377 | Published online: 22 Sep 2010

References

  • Anderson , J. R. and Schooler , L.J. 1991 . Reflections of the environment in memory . Psychological Science , 2 : 396 – 408 .
  • Arkes , H. R. , Wortmann , R. L. , Seville , P. D. and Harkness , A. R. 1981 . Hindsight bias among physicians: Weighing the likelihood of diagnoses . Journal of Applied Psychology , 66 : 252 – 254 .
  • Bjork , E. L. and Bjork , R. A. 1988 . “ On the adaptive aspects of retrieval failure in autobiographical memory ” . In Practical aspects of memory: Current research and issues, Vol. 1: Memory in everyday life , Edited by: Gruneberg , M. M. , Morris , P. E. and Sykes , R. N. 283 – 288 . New York : Wiley .
  • Blank , H. , Fischer , V. and Erdfelder , E. 2003 . Hindsight bias in political elections . Memory , 11 : 491 – 504 .
  • Bröder , A. 2000 . Assessing the empirical validity of the “Take The Best” heuristic as a model of human probabilistic inference . Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition , 26 : 1332 – 1346 .
  • Brunswik , E. 1952 . The conceptual framework of psychology, international Encyclopedia of Unified Science , Chicago : University of Chicago Press .
  • Buchanan , M. 2000 . Ubiquity , London : Weidenfeld & Nicolson .
  • Bukszar , E. and Connolly , T. 1988 . Hindsight bias and strategic choice: Some problems in learning from experience . Academy of Management Journal , 31 : 628 – 641 .
  • Campbell , J. E. and Mann , T. E. 1996 . Forecasting the presidential election: What can we learn from the models? . The Brookings Review , 14 : 26 – 31 .
  • Chase , W. G. and Simon , H. A. 1973 . Perception in chess . Cognitive Psychology , 4 : 55 – 81 .
  • Chi , M. T. H. , Feltovitch , P. J. and Glaser , R. 1981 . Categorization of physics problems by experts and novices . Cognitive Science , 5 : 121 – 152 .
  • Christensen-Szalanski , J. J. J. and Beach , L. R. 1984 . The citation bias: Fad and fashion in the judgment and decision literature . American Psychologist , 39 : 75 – 78 .
  • Christensen-Szalanski , J. J. J. and Willham , C. F. 1991 . The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis . Organizational behavior and human decision processes , 48 : 147 – 168 .
  • Cohen , J. 1988 . Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences , 2nd ed. , Hillsdale, NJ : Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Inc .
  • Dawes , R. M. 1979 . The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making . American Psychologist , 34 : 571 – 582 .
  • de Groot , A. D. 1965 . Thought and choice in chess , The Hague : Mouton . first edition in Dutch, 1946
  • Dhami , M. K. , Hertwig , R. and Hoffrage , U. 2003 . The role of representative design and sampling in an ecological approach to cognition Manuscript submitted for publication
  • Einhorn , H. J. and Hogarth , R. M. 1975 . Unit weighting schemes for decision making . Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , 13 : 171 – 192 .
  • Erdfelder , E. and Buchner , A. 1998 . Decomposing the hindsight bias: A multinomial processing tree model for separating recollection and reconstruction in hindsight . Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition , 24 : 387 – 414 .
  • Ericsson , K. A. and Chase , W. G. 1982 . Exceptional memory . American Scientist , 70 : 607 – 615 .
  • Ericsson , K. A. and Kintsch , W. 1995 . Long-term working memory . Psychological Review , 102 : 211 – 245 .
  • Ericsson , K. A. and Slaszewski , J. J. 1989 . “ Skilled memory and expertise: Mechanisms of exceptional performance ” . In Complex information processing: The impact of Herbert A. Simon , Edited by: Klahr , D. and Kolovsky , K. 235 – 267 . Hillsdale, NJ : Lawrence Erlbaum .
  • Fischhoff , B. 1982 . “ Debiasing ” . In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , Edited by: Kahneman , D. , Slovic , P. and Tversky , A. 422 – 444 . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
  • Fischhoff , B. 1982 . “ For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight ” . In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , Edited by: Kahneman , D. , Slovic , P. and Tversky , A. 335 – 351 . Cambridge : Cambridge Universily Press .
  • Gigerenzer , G. , Czerlinski , J. and Martignon , L. 1999 . “ How good are fast and frugal heuristics? ” . In Decision science and technology: Reflections on the contributions of Ward Edwards , Edited by: Shanteau , J. , Meilers , B. A. and Schum , D. A. 81 – 103 . Norwell, MA : Kluwer .
  • Gigerenzer , G. and Goldstein , D. G. 1996 . Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality . Psychological Review , 103 : 650 – 669 .
  • Gigerenzer , G. and Goldstein , D. G. 1999 . “ Betting on one good reason: The Take The Best heuristic ” . In Simple heuristics that make us smart , Edited by: Gigerenzer , G. , Todd , P. M. and the ABC Research Group . 75 – 95 . New York : Oxford University Press .
  • Gigerenzer , G. , Hoffrage , U. and Kleinbölting , H. 1991 . Probabilistic menial models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence . Psychological Review , 98 : 506 – 528 .
  • Gigerenzer , G. , Todd , P. M. and the ABC Research Group . 1999 . Simple heuristics that make us smart , New York : Oxford University Press .
  • Ginzburg , L. R. , Janson , C. and Person , S. 1996 . Judgment under uncertainty: Evolution may not favor a probabilistic calculus . Behavioral and Brain Sciences , 19 : 24 – 25 .
  • Green , L. and Mehr , D. R. 1997 . What alters physicians'decisions to admit to the coronary care unit? . The Journal of Family Practice , 45 : 219 – 226 .
  • Hawkins , S. A. and Hastie , R. 1990 . Hindsight: Biased judgment of past events after the outcomes are known . Psychological Bulletin , 107 : 311 – 327 .
  • Heisenberg , W. K. 1971 . Physics and beyond: Encounters and conversations , New York : Harper & Row .
  • Hertwig , R. , Gigerenzer , G. and Hoffrage , U. 1997 . The reiteration effect in hindsight bias . Psychological Review , 104 : 194 – 202 .
  • Hertwig , R. and Hoffrage , U. 2001 . Empirische Evidenz für einfache Heuristiken: Eine Antwort auf Bröder [Empirical evidence for simple heuristics: A response to Bröder] . Psychologische Rundschau , 52 : 162 – 165 .
  • Hertwig , R. and Todd , P. M. “ More is not always better: The benefits of cognitive limits ” . In Thinking: Psychological perspectives on reasoning, judgment and decision making , Edited by: Hardman , D. and Macchi , L. New York : Wiley . in press
  • Hoffrage , U. and Hertwig , R. 1999 . “ Hindsight Bias: A price worth paying for fast and frugal memory ” . In Simple heuristics that make us smart , Edited by: Gigerenzer , G. , Todd , P. M. and the ABC Research Group . 191 – 208 . New York : Oxford University Press .
  • Hoffrage , U. , Hertwig , R. and Gigerenzer , G. 2000 . Hindsight bias: A by-product of knowledge updating? . Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition , 26 : 566 – 581 .
  • Huntford , R. 1999 . The last place on earth , New York : Modern Library .
  • Kahneman , D. and Tversky , A. 1984 . Choices, values, and frames . American Psychologist , 39 : 341 – 350 .
  • Larkin , J. , McDermott , J. , Simon , O. P. and Simon , H. A. 1980 . Expert and novice performance in solving physics problems . Science , 208 : 1335 – 1342 .
  • Lichtman , A. J. 1996 . The keys to the White House, 1996 , Lanham, MD : Madison Books .
  • Mazursky , D. and Ofir , C. 1990 . “I could never have expected it to happen”: The reversal of the hindsight bias . Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , 46 : 20 – 33 .
  • Ofir , C and Mazursky , D. 1997 . Does a surprising outcome reinforce or reverse the hindsight bias? . Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , 69 : 51 – 57 .
  • Pezzo , M. 2003 . Surprise, defence, or making sense: What removes hindsight bias? . Memory , 11 : 421 – 441 .
  • Pohl , R. F. 1992 . Der Rückschau-Fehler: Systematische Verfälschung der Erinnerung bei Experten und Novizen [Hindsight bias: Systematic distortions of the memory of experts and laymen] . Kognitionswissenschaft , 3 : 38 – 44 .
  • Pohl , R. F. , Eisenhauer , M. and Hardt , O. 2003 . SARA: A cognitive process model to simulate the anchoring effect and hindsight bias . Memory , 11 : 337 – 356 .
  • Rieskamp , J. and Hoffrage , U. 1999 . “ When do people use simple heuristics, and how can we tell? ” . In Simple heuristics that make us smart , Edited by: Gigerenzer , G. , Todd , P. M. and the ABC Research Group . 141 – 167 . New York : Oxford University Press .
  • Roese , N. J. and Olson , J. M. 1996 . Counterfactuals, causal attributions, and the hindsight bias: A conceptual integration . Journal of Experimental Social Psychology , 32 : 197 – 227 .
  • Schwarz , S. and Stahlberg , D. 2003 . Strength of hindsight bias as a consequence of meta-cognitions . Memory , 11 : 395 – 410 .
  • Shanteau , J. 1992 . Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics . Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes , 53 : 252 – 266 .
  • Simon , H. A. and Barenfeld , M. 1969 . Information-processing analysis of perceptual processes in problem solving . Psychological Review , 76 : 473 – 483 .
  • Slegers , D. W. , Brake , G. L. and Doherty , M. E. 2000 . Probabilistic mental models with continuous predictors . Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , 81 : 98 – 114 .
  • Solomon , S. 2001 . The coldest march: Scott's fatal Antarctic expedition , New Haven, CT : Yale University Press .
  • Stahlberg , D. and Maass , A. 1998 . “ Hindsight bias: Impaired memory or biased reconstruction? ” . In European review of social psychology , Edited by: Stroebe , W. and Hewstone , M. Vol. 8 , 105 – 132 . New York : Wiley .
  • Synodinos , N. E. 1986 . Hindsight distortion: “I knew-it-all along and I was sure about it . ” Journal of Applied Social Psychology , 16 : 107 – 117 .
  • Tulving , E. 2002 . Episodic memory: From mind to brain . Annual Review of Psychology , 53 : 1 – 25 .
  • Wendt , D. 1993 . No hindsight bias (“knew-it-all-along effect”) during province parliament elections in Schleswig-Holstein in 1988 and 1992 . Zeitschrift für Sozialpsychologie , 24 : 273 – 279 .
  • Werth , L. and Strack , F. 2003 . An inferential approach to the knew-it-all-along phenomenon . Memory , 11 : 411 – 419 .

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.