1,831
Views
4
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

Proving a negative: why deterrence does not work in the Baltics

ORCID Icon
Pages 431-448 | Received 03 May 2019, Accepted 26 Jun 2019, Published online: 11 Jul 2019

References

  • Almog, D., 2004. Cumulative deterrence and the war on terrorism. Parameters: United States Army War College quarterly, 34 (4), 4–19.
  • Baločkaitė, R., 2010. Post-Soviet transitions of the planned socialist towns: Visaginas. Lithuania. Studies of transition states and societies, 2 (2), 63–81.
  • Beaufre, A., 1965. An introduction to strategy. London: Faber and Faber.
  • Betts, R.K., 1985. Conventional deterrence: predictive uncertainty and policy confidence. World politics, 37 (2), 153–179. doi: 10.2307/2010141
  • Betts, R.K., 2013. The lost logic of deterrence. Foreign affairs, 92 (2), 87–99.
  • Buzan, B., 1987. An introduction to strategic studies. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
  • Cameron, D., 2014. The prime minister’s letter to leaders from NATO’s member states. London: The Prime Minister's Office, 2 August.
  • Cheskin, A. and Kachuyevski, A., 2019. The Russian-speaking populations in the post-Soviet space: language, politics and identity. Europe-Asia studies, 71 (1), 1–23. doi: 10.1080/09668136.2018.1529467
  • Clark, W., et al., 2016. Closing NATO’s Baltic gap. Tallinn: International Centre for Defence and Security.
  • Colby, E. and Solomon, J., 2015. Facing Russia: conventional defence and deterrence in Europe. Survival, 57 (6), 21–50. doi: 10.1080/00396338.2015.1116146
  • Cook, L., 2017. NATO chief says allies concerned about Russian phone jamming. Brussels: The Associated Press, 26 October.
  • Cornish, P., 2017. Integrated deterrence: NATO’s ‘first reset’ strategy. Bratislava: GLOBSEC Policy Institute.
  • Danilovic, V., 2001. The sources of threat credibility in extended deterrence. Journal of conflict resolution, 45 (3), 341–369. doi: 10.1177/0022002701045003005
  • Department of Defense, 2019. European deterrence initiative: Department of Defense budget fiscal year 2020. Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), March.
  • Duffield, J.S., 1995. Power rules: the evolution of NATO's conventional force posture. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
  • EISS, 2016. Annual review 2015. Tallinn: Estonian Internal Security Service.
  • Fearon, J.D., 1997. Signaling foreign policy interests: tying hands versus sinking costs. Journal of conflict resolution, 41 (1), 68–90. doi: 10.1177/0022002797041001004
  • Fearon, J.D., 2002. Selection effects and deterrence. International interactions, 28 (1), 5–29. doi: 10.1080/03050620210390
  • Freedman, L., 2004. Deterrence. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Freedman, L., 2013. Strategy: a history. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Galeotti, M., 2016. Hybrid, ambiguous, and non-linear? How new is Russia’s ‘new way of war’? Small wars & insurgencies, 27 (2), 282–301. doi: 10.1080/09592318.2015.1129170
  • Harper, C., Lawrence, T., and Sakkov, S., 2018. Air defence of the Baltic states. Tallinn: International Centre for Defence and Security.
  • Harris, H.B., 2016. America’s enduring interests in the Indo-Asia-Pacific. Address of the Commander of U.S. Pacific Command to the Lowy Institute, Sydney, 14 December.
  • Harvey, F.P., 1999. Practicing coercion: revisiting successes and failures using Boolean logic and comparative methods. Journal of conflict resolution, 43 (6), 840–871. doi: 10.1177/0022002799043006008
  • Heuser, B., 1998. Victory in a nuclear war? A comparison of NATO and WTO war aims and strategies. Contemporary European history, 7 (3), 311–327. doi: 10.1017/S0960777300004264
  • Heuser, B. and Stoddart, K., 2017. Difficult Europeans: NATO and tactical/non-strategic nuclear weapons in the Cold War. Diplomacy & statecraft, 28 (3), 454–447. doi: 10.1080/09592296.2017.1347446
  • Huth, P.K., 1997. Reputations and deterrence: a theoretical and empirical assessment. Security studies, 7 (1), 72–99. doi: 10.1080/09636419708429334
  • Huth, P.K. and Russett, B., 1984. What makes deterrence work? Cases from, 1900 to 1980. World politics, 36 (4), 496–526.
  • Huth, P.K. and Russett, B., 1990. Testing deterrence theory: rigor makes a difference. World politics, 42 (4), 466–501. doi: 10.2307/2010511
  • Huth, P. and Russett, B., 1993. General deterrence between enduring rivals: testing three competing models. American political science review, 87 (1), 61–73. doi: 10.2307/2938956
  • Jervis, R., Lebow, R.N., and Stein, J.G., 1989. Psychology and deterrence. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
  • Johnson, R., 2018. Hybrid war and its countermeasures: a critique of the literature. Small wars & insurgencies, 29 (1), 141–163. doi: 10.1080/09592318.2018.1404770
  • Joubert, V., 2012. Five years after Estonia’s cyber attacks: lessons learned for NATO? Research Paper No. 76, NATO Defense College, Rome.
  • Kahn, H., 1960. On thermonuclear war. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Kaljulaid, K., 2017. Remarks by the President of Estonia at the Lennart Meri conference. Office of the President. Tallinn, 12 May.
  • Kaljulaid, K., 2018a. Keynote speech by the President of Estonia at Munich security conference side event. Office of the President. Munich, 15 February.
  • Kaljulaid, K., 2018b. Face à la Russie, l'Estonie réclame des troupes et missiles américains. Agence France-Presse, Washington, 5 April.
  • Karber, P.A. and Combs, J.A., 1998. The United States. NATO, and the Soviet threat to Western Europe: military estimates and policy options, 1945–1963. Diplomatic history, 22 (3), 399–429.
  • Kaufmann, W., 1954. The requirements of deterrence. Princeton: The Center of International Studies.
  • Kroenig, M., 2015. Facing reality: getting NATO ready for a new Cold War. Survival, 57 (1), 49–70. doi: 10.1080/00396338.2015.1008295
  • Lanoszka, A., 2016. Russian hybrid warfare and extended deterrence in Eastern Europe. International affairs, 92 (1), 175–195. doi: 10.1111/1468-2346.12509
  • Lebow, R.N. and Stein, J.G., 1990. Deterrence: the elusive dependent variable. World politics, 42 (3), 336–369. doi: 10.2307/2010415
  • Ludvik, J., 2017. Nuclear asymmetry and deterrence: theory, policy and history. Abingdon: Routledge.
  • Luik, J. and Jermalavičius, T., 2017. A plausible scenario of nuclear war in Europe, and how to deter it: a perspective from Estonia. Bulletin of the atomic scientists, 73 (4), 233–239. doi: 10.1080/00963402.2017.1338014
  • Mattis, J., 2017. Remarks by Secretary Mattis and Minister von der Leyen at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. Washington: U.S. Department of Defense. Press Operations transcript, 28 June.
  • Merkel, A., 2015. Rede von Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel anlässlich der 51. Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz. Munich: Presse- and Informationsamt der Bundesregierung, 7 February.
  • Ministry of Defence, 2017. UK troops arrive in Estonia for major NATO deployment. Gov.uk, 18 March. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-troops-arrive-in-estonia-for-major-nato-deployment [Accessed 16 April 2019].
  • Mölling, C., Schütz, T., and Stanley-Lockman, Z., 2019. A new dimension of air-based threats: Germany, the EU, and NATO need new political initiatives and military defense systems. DGAP Kompakt, Nr. 8, June 2019.
  • Moody, S.J., 2017. Enhancing political cohesion in NATO during the 1950s or: how it learned to stop worrying and love the (tactical) bomb. Journal of strategic studies, 40 (6), 817–838. doi: 10.1080/01402390.2015.1035434
  • Morgan, P.M., 1977. Deterrence: a conceptual analysis. London: Sage.
  • Morgan, P.M., 2003. Deterrence now. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • NATO, 2008. Bucharest summit declaration. Bucharest: North Atlantic Council. Press Release 049 issued on 3 April.
  • NATO, 2010. Strategic concept: active engagement, modern defence. Brussels: NATO Public Diplomacy Division.
  • NATO, 2014. Wales summit declaration. Newport: North Atlantic Council. Press release 120 issued on 5 September.
  • NATO, 2016. Warsaw summit communiqué. Warsaw: North Atlantic Council. Press Release 100 issued on 9 July.
  • NSC, 1990. Saddam’s message of friendship to President Bush. U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, 25 July. Memorandum of the National Security Council (NSC), Declassified document from The Library of George Bush Sr. in College Station, Texas.
  • Nye, J.S., 2017. Deterrence and dissuasion in cyberspace. International security, 41 (3), 44–71. doi: 10.1162/ISEC_a_00266
  • NYT, 1990. Excerpts from Iraqi document on meeting with U.S. envoy. The New York Times, 23 September, p. 1019.
  • Obama, B., 2014. Remarks by President Obama to the people of Estonia. Tallinn: Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, 3 September.
  • Osgood, R.E., 1957. Limited war: the challenge to American strategy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Paul, T.V., 2009. Complex deterrence: an introduction. In: T.V. Paul, P.M. Morgan, and J.J. Wirtz, eds. Complex deterrence: strategy in the global age. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1–27.
  • Pompeo, M., 2018. Remarks at a press availability in NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. Washington: U.S. Department of State, 27 April.
  • Pridham, G., 2018. Latgale and Latvia’s post-Soviet democracy: the territorial dimension of regime consolidation. East European politics, 34 (2), 194–216. doi: 10.1080/21599165.2018.1457956
  • Quackenbush, S.L., 2010. General deterrence and international conflict: testing perfect deterrence theory. International interactions, 36 (1), 60–85. doi: 10.1080/03050620903554069
  • Rasmussen, A.F., 2014. NATO is back: a conversation with Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Foreign affairs, 21 March. Available from: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/interviews/2014-03-21/nato-back [Accessed 16 April 2019].
  • Rasmussen, A.F., 2016. Sanctions against Russia should be extended to 12 months. Defence matters. Available from: https://www.defencematters.org/news/rasmussen-sanctions-russia-extended/ [Accessed 16 April 2019].
  • Rid, T., 2012. Deterrence beyond the state: the Israeli experience. Contemporary security policy, 33 (1), 124–147. doi: 10.1080/13523260.2012.659593
  • Ringsmose, J. and Rynning, S., 2017a. Can NATO’s new Very High Readiness Joint Task Force deter? In: K. Friis, ed. NATO and collective defense in the 21st century: an assessment of the Warsaw summit. London: Routledge, 16–22.
  • Ringsmose, J. and Rynning, S., 2017b. The NATO response force: a qualified failure no more? Contemporary security policy, 38 (3), 443–456. doi: 10.1080/13523260.2017.1350020
  • Rising, D., 2019. US testing new rapid-deployment strategy in Europe. The Associated Press, Berlin, 21 March.
  • Sheinin, D.M.K., 2006. Argentina and the United States: an alliance contained. Athens: University of Georgia Press.
  • Shimshoni, J., 1988. Israel and conventional deterrence: border warfare from 1953 to 1970. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
  • Shlapak, D.A. and Johnson, M.W., 2015. Reinforcing deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation.
  • Snyder, G.H., 1961. Deterrence and defense: toward a theory of national security. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Sobelman, D., 2017. Learning to deter: deterrence failure and success in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, 2006–16. International security, 41 (3), 151–196.
  • Sorokin, G.L., 1994. Alliance formation and general deterrence: a game-theoretic model and the case of Israel. Journal of conflict resolution, 38 (2), 298–325. doi: 10.1177/0022002794038002006
  • Stavridis, J., 2019. Poland isn’t getting its ‘Fort Trump’ – yet. Bloomberg News, 13 June.
  • Stein, J.G., 1991. Reassurance in international conflict management. Political science quarterly, 106 (3), 431–451. doi: 10.2307/2151741
  • Stoltenberg, J., 2015. Keynote speech by NATO Secretary General. NATO Transformation Seminar. Washington DC, 25 March.
  • Stoltenberg, J., 2016. Doorstep by the NATO Secretary General at the meeting of NATO ministers of defence, Brussels. 10 February.
  • Stoltenberg, J., 2019. Remarks at the cyber defence pledge conference, London. 23 May.
  • Stone, J., 2012. Conventional deterrence and the challenge of credibility. Contemporary security policy, 33 (1), 108–123. doi: 10.1080/13523260.2012.659591
  • Sutyagin, I. and Bronk, J., 2017. Russia’s new ground forces: capabilities. Limitations and implications for international security. Whitehall papers, 89 (1), 43–129. doi: 10.1080/02681307.2017.1338467
  • Thornton, R., 2017. The Russian military’s new ‘main emphasis’. The RUSI Journal, 162 (4), 18–28.
  • Tor, U., 2017. ‘Cumulative deterrence’ as a new paradigm for cyber deterrence. Journal of Strategic Studies, 40 (1–2), 92–117. doi: 10.1080/01402390.2015.1115975
  • Zagare, F., 1987. The dynamics of deterrence. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Zapfe, M., 2017. Deterrence from the ground up: understanding NATO’s enhanced forward presence. Survival, 59 (3), 147–160. doi: 10.1080/00396338.2017.1325604

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.