The underlying causes of strategic surprise in EU foreign policy: a post-mortem investigation of the Arab uprisings and the Ukraine–Russia crisis of 2013/14

References

• 9/11 Commission. 2004. The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. Washington, DC: USA Government Printing Office. Available at: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-911REPORT/pdf/GPO-911REPORT.pd
   Google Scholar
• Aldrich, R.J., 2011. International intelligence cooperation in practice. In: H Born, I Leigh, and A Wills, eds. International intelligence cooperation and accountability. London: Routledge, 18–42.
   Google Scholar
• Arcos, R., and Palacios, J.-M., 2018. The impact of intelligence on decision-making: the EU and the Arab Spring. Intelligence and national security, 33, 737–754.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arcos, R., and Palacios, J.-M., 2020. EU INTCEN: a transnational European culture of intelligence analysis? Intelligence and national security, 35 (1), 72–94.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bar-Joseph, U., 2013. Forecasting a Hurricane: Israeli and American estimations of the Khomeini Revolution. Journal of strategic studies, 36 (5), 718–742.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bar–Joseph, U., and Kruglanski, A.W., 2003. Intelligence failure and need for cognitive closure: On the psychology of the Yom Kippur surprise. Political psychology, 24 (1), 75–99.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barnea, A., 2020. Strategic intelligence: a concentrated and diffused intelligence model. Intelligence and national security, 35 (5), 701–716.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bátora, J., 2013. The ‘Mitrailleuse Effect’: The EEAS as an interstitial organization and the dynamics of innovation in diplomacy. JCMS: journal of common market studies, 51 (4), 598–613.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bazerman, M.H., and Watkins, M.D., 2008. Predictable surprises: the disasters you should have seen coming, and how to prevent them. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School.
   Google Scholar
• Becker, S., Bauer, M.W., Connolly, S., et al., 2016. The commission: boxed in and constrained, but still an engine of integration. West European politics, 39 (5), 1011–1031.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bengtsson, L., Borg, S., and Rhinard, M., 2017. European security and early warning systems: from risks to threats in the European Union’s health security sector. European security, doi:10.1080/09662839.2017.1394845.1-21.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ben-Zvi, A., 1976. Hindsight and foresight: a conceptual framework for the analysis of surprise attacks. World politics, 28 (3), 381–395.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Beswick, T. 2012. Improving institutional capacity for early warning. Available from: https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/20120100_beswick_institutional.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Betts, R.K., 1978. Analysis, war, and decision: why intelligence failures are inevitable. World politics, 31 (01), 61–89.
   Google Scholar
• Betts, R.K., 1981. Surprise attack: NATO’s political vulnerability. International security, 5 (4), 117–149.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Betts, R.K., 1982. Surprise attack: lessons for defense planning. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
   Google Scholar
• Biehl, H., Giegerich, B., and Jonas, A., 2013. Strategic cultures in Europe: security and defence policies across the continent. Berlin: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Bøås, M., 2020. EU migration management in the Sahel: unintended consequences on the ground in Niger? Third world quarterly, 42 (1), 52–67.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boin, A., McConnell, A., and Hart, P.T., 2008. Governing after crisis: the politics of investigation, accountability and learning. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Börzel, T., 2015. The noble west and the dirty rest? Western democracy promoters and illiberal regional powers. Democratization, 22 (3), 519–535.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brante, J., 2009. Strategic warning in an EU context: achieving common threat assessments. European security and defence forum, 1–16. London: Chatham House. Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/International%20Security/1109esdf_brante.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Bremberg, N., 2016. Making sense of the EU’s response to the Arab uprisings: foreign policy practice at times of crisis. European security, 25 (4), 423–441.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bürgin, A., 2018. Intra- and inter-institutional leadership of the European Commission President: an assessment of Juncker’s organizational reforms. JCMS: journal of common market studies, 56 (4), 837–853.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Call, C.T., and Campbell S, P., 2018. Is prevention the answer? Daedalus, 147 (1), 64–77.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Conrad, G., 2021. Situational awareness for EU decision-making: the next decade. European foreign affairs review, 26 (1), 55–70.
   Google Scholar
• Council of the European Union, 2022. A strategic compass for security and defence. Brussels: Council of the European Union. 64.
   Google Scholar
• Dahl, E.J., 2013. Intelligence and surprise attack: failure and success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and beyond. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Daun, A., 2005. Intelligence-Strukturen Für Die Multilaterale Kooperation Europäischer Staaten. Integration, 28 (2), 136–149.
   Google Scholar
• Echagüe, A., Michou, H., and Mikail, B., 2011. Europe and the Arab uprisings: EU vision versus member state action. Mediterranean politics, 16 (2), 329–335.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Edwards, G., 1996. Early warning and preventive diplomacy: The role of the OSCE High Commissioner on national minorities. The RUSI journal, 141 (5), 42–46.
   Google Scholar
• Fägersten, B., 2014. European intelligence cooperation. In: I Duyvesteyn, B.D. Jong and J.V. Reijn, eds The future of intelligence: challenges in the 21st century. London: Routledge, 94–112.
   Google Scholar
• Farson, S., and Phythian, M., 2011. Commissions of inquiry and national security: comparative approaches. Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-CLIO.
   Google Scholar
• George, A.L., and Holl, J.E., 1997. The warning-response problem and missed opportunities in preventive diplomacy. New York: Carnegie Corporation of New York.
   Google Scholar
• Gerstein, M.S., and Schein, E.H., 2011. Dark secrets: face-work, organizational culture and disaster prevention. In: De Franco C and CO Meyer, eds. Forecasting, warning, and responding to transnational risks: Is prevention possible? Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 148–168.
   Google Scholar
• Grabo, C., 2010. Handbook of warning intelligence: assessing the threat to national security. Lanham: Scarecrow Press.
   Google Scholar
• Guttmann, A., Ikani, I., Meyer, C.O., and Michaels, E. 2022. Introduction: Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy. In; Meyer et al., eds. Estimative intelligence in European foreign policymaking. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 1–26.
   Google Scholar
• Hammargård, K., and Olsson, E.-K., 2019. Explaining the European commission’s strategies in times of crisis. Cambridge review of international affairs, 32 (2), 159–177.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hart, D., and Simon, S., 2006. Thinking straight and talking straight: problems of intelligence analysis. Survival, 48 (1), 35–60.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Henökl, T.E., 2015. How do EU foreign policy-makers decide? Institutional orientations within the European external action service. West European politics, 38 (3), 679–708.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Heuer, R.J., 1999. Psychology of intelligence analysis. Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence.
   Google Scholar
• Higgins, A. 2014. Ukraine upheaval highlights E.U.’s past miscalculations and future dangers. New York Times, 20 March 2014.
   Google Scholar
• Hollis, R., 2012. No friend of democratization: Europe’s role in the genesis of the ‘Arab Spring’. International affairs, 88 (1), 81–94.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Howorth, J., 2011. The ‘new faces’ of Lisbon: assessing the performance of Catherine Ashton and Herman van Rompuy on the global stage. European foreign affairs review, 16 (3), 303–323.
   Google Scholar
• Ikani, N., 2021. Foreign policy change after the Arab uprisings. In Crisis and change in European Union foreign policy, 46–74. Manchester, Manchester University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Ikani, N., Guttmann, A., and Meyer, C.O., 2020. An analytical framework for postmortems of European foreign policy: should decision-makers have been surprised? Intelligence and National Security, 35 (2), 197–215.
   Google Scholar
• Jervis, R., 2010. Why intelligence fails: lessons from the Iranian revolution and the Iraq war. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Jervis, R., 2022. Why postmortems fail. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 119 (3), 1–6.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Juncos, A.E., and Pomorska, K., 2014. Manufacturing Esprit de Corps: The case of the European external action service. Journal of common market studies, 52 (2), 302–319.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Juncos, A.E., and Pomorska, K., 2021. Contesting procedural norms: the impact of politicisation on European foreign policy cooperation. European security, 30 (3), 367–384.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Juppé, A. 2011. Closing speech by Alain Juppé, Ministre d’Etat, Minister of Foreign Affairs, to the Arab World Institute.
   Google Scholar
• Kagan, R., 2003. Of paradise and power: America and Europe in the new world order. New York: Knopf.
   Google Scholar
• Koops, J.A., and Tercovich, G., 2020. Shaping the European external action service and its post-Lisbon crisis management structures: an assessment of the EU high representatives’ political leadership. European security, 29 (3), 275–300.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Krastev, I., and Leonard, M., 2015. Europe’s shattered dream of order: how Putin is disrupting the Atlantic alliance. Foreign affairs, 94 (3), 48–58.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kuus, M., 2013. Geopolitics and expertise: knowledge and authority in European diplomacy. Oxford: John Wiley.
   Google Scholar
• Lledo-Ferrer, Y., and Dietrich, J.-H., 2020. Building a European intelligence community. International journal of intelligence and counterintelligence, 33 (3), 440–451.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• MacFarlane, N., and Menon, A., 2014. The EU and Ukraine. Survival, 56 (3), 95–101.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Maras, M.-H., 2017. Overcoming the intelligence-sharing paradox: improving information sharing through change in organizational culture. Comparative strategy, 36 (3), 187–197.
   Google Scholar
• Marrin, S., 2013. Rethinking analytic politicization, intelligence and national security. Intelligence and national security, 28 (1), 32–54.
   Google Scholar
• Mearsheimer, J.J., 2014. Why the Ukraine crisis is the West’s fault: the liberal delusions that provoked Putin. Foreign affairs, 93 (5), 77–89.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meyer, C. O., De Franco, C., and Otto, F., 2020. Warning about war: Conflict, Persuasion and Foreign Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Mucha, W., 2017. The fairy tales of early warning research. Journal of contemporary central and Eastern Europe, 25 (2), 219–235.
   Google Scholar
• Natorski, M., 2015. Epistemic (un)certainty in times of crisis: the role of coherence as a social convention in the European Neighbourhood Policy after the Arab Spring. European journal of international relations. doi:10.1177/1354066115599043.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Parker, C.F., and Stern, E.K., 2005. Bolt from the Blue or avoidable failure? Revisiting September 11 and the origins of strategic surprise. Foreign policy analysis, 1 (3), 301–331.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Posner, R.A., 2005. Preventing surprise attacks: intelligence reform in the wake of 9/11. London: Rowman & Littlefield.
   Google Scholar
• Rovner, J., 2011. Fixing the facts: national security and the politics of intelligence. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Sakwa, R., 2014. Frontline Ukraine: crisis in the Borderlands. London: I.B. Tauris.
   Google Scholar
• Sakwa, R., 2015. The death of Europe? Continental fates after Ukraine. International affairs, 91 (3), 553–579.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Seyfried, P.P. 2017. A European Intelligence Service? Potentials and limits of intelligence cooperation at EU level. Security Policy Working Paper no 20. Berlin: Federal Academy for Security, 1–5.
   Google Scholar
• Shapcott, W., 2011. Do they listen? Communicating warnings: a practitioners perspective. In: De Franco C and CO Meyer, eds. Forecasting, warning, and responding to transnational risks: is prevention possible? Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 117–126.
   Google Scholar
• Teti, A., 2012. The EU’s first response to the ‘Arab Spring’: a critical discourse analysis of the partnership for democracy and shared prosperity. Mediterranean politics, 17 (3), 266–284.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tett, G., 2011. Silos and silences: the role of fragmentation in the recent financial crisis. In: Franco Cd and CO Meyer, eds. Forecasting, warning and responding to transnational risks: is prevention possible? Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 208–216.
   Google Scholar
• Van Puyvelde, D., 2020. European intelligence agendas and the way forward. International journal of intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 33 (3), 506–513.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walshe, K., 2019. Public inquiry methods, processes and outputs: an epistemological critique. The political quarterly, 90 (2), 210–215.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weick, K.E., and Sutcliffe, K.M., 2007. Managing the unexpected: resilient performance in an age of uncertainty. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
   Google Scholar
• Whitman, R.G., and Wolff, S., 2010. The EU as a conflict manager? The case of Georgia and its implications. International affairs, 86 (1), 87–107.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wohlstetter, R., 1962. Pearl Harbor: warning and decision. Redwood City, CA: Stanford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Woocher, L. 2011. Conflict assessment and intelligence analysis: commonality, convergence, and complementarity. Reportno. Special Report 275. Washington, DC: US Institute for Peace. Available at: https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/Conflict_Assessment.pdf
   Google Scholar