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Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Volume 12, 2000 - Issue 2
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Original Articles

From Kosovo to Kursk: Russian Defense Policy from Yeltsin to Putin

Stephen Blank
Pages 231-273 | Published online: 25 Mar 2009

  • Moscow, RIA, in English, March 31, 1999, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Central Eurasia (Henceforth FBIS SOV), March 31, 1999; Amy Knight, “The Enduring Legacy of the KGB in Russian Politics,” Problems of Post-Communism, XLVII, No. 4, July-August, 2000, pp. 3–15; Stephen Blank and Theodore Karasik, “'Reforms' That Hark Back to Stalinist Times,” Los Angeles Times, July 20, 2000.
  • Rigby , T. H. 1979 . Lenin's Government: Sovnarkom 1917–1922 Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
  • Ibid. See also statements by Chief of Staff General Anatoly Kvashnin, that appear in the following interviews, Moscow, Interfax AiK, in Russian, August 25–31, 1997, FBIS-SOV-97-190-S October 2, 1997, and 97–265 September 23, 1997; Kaliningrad, Kaliningradskaya Pravda, in Russian, August 31, 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Military Affairs (Henceforth FBIS UMA)-97-259, August 31, 1997; St. Petersburg Times, November 17–23, 1997, from Johnson's Russia List, [email protected], No. 1371, November 17, 1997; and more recently by Sergei Ivanov, Moscow, Komsomolskaya Pravda, in Russian, February 3, 2000, FBIS SOV, February 4, 2000.
  • Putin , Vladimir . 2000 . Ol Pervogo Litsa Moscow : Vagrius .
  • McDonald , David M. 1993 . “A Lever Without a Fulcrum: Domestic Factors and Russian Foreign Policy, 1905–1914,” . In Imperial Russian Foreign Policy Edited by: Hugh , Ragsdale . 281 Washington DC and Cambridge : Woodrow Wilson Center Press and Cambridge University Press . One need only study the classic pre-Revolutionary studies of Russian government by Anatole Leroy-Beaulieu and P.A. Zaionchkovskii to see this pathology at work but we can see it as well in more modern studies of Tsarist foreign policymaking and Yeltsin's own administration in general, e.g. Eugene Huskey “The State-legal Administration and the Politics of Redundancy,” Post-Soviet Studies, XI, No. 2, 1995, pp. 115–3;, Ed. and Trans.
  • Stephen Larrabee , F. and Karasik , Theodore . 1997 . Foreign and Domestic Policymaking Under Yeltsin Santa Monica, CA : Rand Corporation .
  • For an analysis of official Russian threat perceptions see, Stephen Blank, Threats to Russian Security: The View From Moscow (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, July 2000) as well as the key Russian national security documents, “Voyennaya Doktrina Rossiiskoi Federatsii: Proekt,” Krasnaya Zvezda, October 9, 1999, p. 3; “Kontseptsiya Natsional'noi Bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii,” Nezai'isinwye Voyeimoye Obozreniye online, November 26, 1999 (henceforth cited as Kontseptsiya); Moscow, Nezavisimoye Voyennoe Obozreniye, January 14, 2000, FBIS SOV, January 14, 2000; Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, April 22, 2000, FBIS SOV, April 24, 2000, “Russian National Security: A Hard-line Interpretation,” Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press (henceforth CDPP), LII, NO. 11, April 12, 2000, pp. 7–9.
  • See Ivanov's interview of March 16, 2000, in CDI Russia Weekly, No. 93, March 17, 2000.
  • Stephen Blank, “The Decaying Soviet Army: Soviet Domestic Operations and Forces, 1989–91,” Forthcoming in Frederick W. Kagan and Robin Higham, eds., A Military History of Russia (New York: St. Martin's Press).
  • Stephen Blank, “After Primakov: The Evolving Context of Russian National Security Policy,” Cahiers du Monde Russe et Sovietique, XL, No. 4, October-December 1999, pp. 691–722; Amy Knight, “The Enduring Legacy of the KGB in Russian Politics,” Problems of Post-Communism, XLVIL No. 4, July-August 2000, p. 7.
  • Moscow, RIA, in English, March 31, 1999, FBIS SOV, March 31, 1999.
  • Ibid.
  • Moscow, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, in Russian, December 26, 1997, FBIS SOV, 97–364, December 30, 1997.
  • Kvashnin's ideas appear in the following interviews, Moscow, Interfax AiK, in Russian, August 25–31, 1997, FBJS-SOV-97-190-S, October 2, 1997, and 97–265, September 23, 1997; Kaliningrad, Knliningradskaya Pravda, in Russian, August 31, 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Military Affairs (Henceforth FBIS UMA)-97-259, August 31, 1997; St. Petersburg Times, November 17–23, 1997, from Johnson's Russia List, [email protected], No. 1371, November 17, 1997.
  • Alexander Golts, “Conflict Stirs in Strategic Missile Forces,” Russia Journal, July 24, 2000. In July 2000 Sergeyev called Kvashnin's latest force structure proposal psychotic and criminal. The struggle between them forced a supposed showdown at a Security Council meeting in on August 11, 2000. This latest episode of rivalry over military reform is the subject of a forthcoming paper by the author. “The Vicissitudes of Russian Military Reform: Defense Policy Under Vladimir Putin,” to be presented at the Conference on Russia's Security Environment, presented by the Center for Strategic Leadership of the US Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, PA, December 4–6, 2000.
  • Sergei Rogov, “Does Russia Need Universal Disarmament,” Vremya MN, July 18, 2000 in Johnson's Russia List, No. 4410, July 19, 2000, [email protected]
  • Stephen Blank, “Russia Rises to Perceived Threats,” Jane's Intelligence Review, February 2000, pp. 24–27.
  • Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in Russian, online, March 3, 1999, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Central Eurasia, March 4, 1999.
  • Knight, pp. 8–9.
  • Blank , Stephen . “State and Armed Forces in Russia: Toward an African Scenario,” Anthony James Joes, ed., Saving Democracies: U.S. Intervention in Threatened Democratic States (Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers 1999), pp. 167–96.
  • Blank , Stephen . 1996 . “The Code and Civil-Military Relations: The Russian Case,” . In Cooperative Security, the OSCE, And Its Code of Conduct Edited by: Gert , de Nooy . 107 – 109 . The Hague : Kluwer Law International . Moscow, Radio Rossii Network, in Russian, May 26, 1999, FBIS SOV, May 26, 1999;, ed., (pp.; Peter Stavrakis, “The Russian State in the Twenty-First Century,” (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, April 22–24 1997), p. 2.
  • FBIS SOV, May 26, 1999.
  • Moscow Center TV, in Russian, March 26, 1999, FBIS SOV, March 26, 1999.
  • This relates to the series of decrees and laws that Putin instituted that are intended to transform Russian governmental structure, first of all by creating seven provinces and plenipotentiaries accountable to him and weakening governors' powers and control over the police, patronage, and funding of local and provincial institutions.
  • Baranovsky , Vladimir . 1999 . “Russia and Asia: Challenges and opportunities for National and International Security,” . In Russia and Asia: The Emerging Security Agenda Edited by: Gennady , Chufrin . 14 Oxford : Oxford University Press for the SIPRI Institute . Moscow, Vek, online, in Russian, November 26, 1999, FBIS SOV, November 29, 1999, for a justification of the Chechen offensive in terms of the domino theory, underscoring Putin's sense of the precariousness of state power in the provinces; as for other Russian observers see ed., (p.
  • Medvedev , Sergei . “Former Soviet Union,” Paul B. Stares, ed., The New Security Agenda: A Global Survey (Tokyo: Japan Center for international Exchange 1998), pp. 78–81.
  • Golts, “Conflict Stirs in Strategic Missile Forces.”
  • “Novaya Voyennaya Doktrina Rossii-Adekvatnyi Otvet na Vyzov Vremenyi,” Krasnaya Zvezda, October 8, 1999; “Shestaya Versiya,” Nezavisimoye Voyennoyc Obozreniye, October 29, 1999, pp. 1, 4; Moscow, Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozrcniyc, in Russian, November 19–25, 1999, FBIS SOV, December 6, 1999.
  • Author's discussions with members of the German General Staff, Berlin, May 2000.
  • Moscow, Kommersant, online, in Russian, November 5, 1999, FBIS SOV, November 5, 1999.
  • Antonino-Sanchez-Andres, “Restructuring the Defence Industry and Arms Production in Russia,” Europe-Asia Studies, LIT, No. 5, July 2000, pp. 897–914.
  • Moscow, ITAR-TASS, in English, April 24, 2000, FBIS SOV, April 24, 2000.
  • Moscow, Russian Television Network, in Russian, March 30, 1999, FBIS SOV, March 30, 1999.
  • This became quite clear in late 1999 when the generals commanding in Chechnya, Generals Troshev and Shammanov, made numerous statements threatening to resign if the politicians again interfered with their operations.
  • General M. A. Gareyev, “Applying Zhukov's Command Heritage To Military Training and Reform in Today's World,” Journal of Slavic Military Studies, XII, No. 4, December 1999, p. 83.
  • Kirov , Alexander M. “Soviet Military Intervention in Hungary,” Jeno Gyorkei and Mikolos Horvath, eds. 1956: Soviet Military Intervention in Hungary (Budapest: Central European University Press 1999), p. 188.
  • Patrick E. Tyler, “Budget Cutbacks Blamed by Russian in Fiasco With Sub,” New York Times, August 22, 2000, p. 1.
  • Moscow Center TV, in Russian, March 25, 1999, FBJS SOV, March 25, 1999.
  • “Realities of the Fourth Russian Republic and War in the Balkans: Editor-in-Chief of International Affairs, Boris Piadyshev Interviews Vladimir Ryzhkov,” International Affairs, No. 2, 1999, p. 2.
  • See the 1997 National Security Blueprint, Moscow, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, in Russian. December 26, 1997. FBIS SOV, 97–364, December 30, 1997.
  • Presentation by Brigadier General (Ret) John Reppert USA to the Council on Foreign Relations, Washington DC, May 12, 1999.
  • FBIS SOV, December 30, 1997.
  • Rostov-na Donu, Voyennoy Vestnik Yuga Rossii, in Russian, March 22–28, 1999, FBIS SOV, May 23, 1999.
  • Moscow, Profil, online, December 13, 1999, FBIS SOV, December 21, 1999, Moscow, Moskovskiy Komsomolets, in Russian, March 24, 2000, FBIS SOV, March 24, 2000.
  • Andrei Rogachevskii, “The Murder of General Rokhlin,” Europe-Asia Studies, LIT, No. 1, January 2000, pp. 95–110.
  • Moscow, Armeyskiy Sbornik, September 1996, FBIS-UMA-96-241-S, September 1, 1996; Col. E.G. Korotchenko, “Informatsionno-Psikhologicheskoe Protivoborstvo v Sovremennykh Usloviakh,” Voennaya Mysl, No. 1, January-February 1996, pp. 22–28.
  • This is based on interviews with the American scholar in question who must remain anonymous. See also Stepashin's revelations below, Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, online, January 14, 2000, FBIS SOV, January 18, 2000, Michael R. Gordon, “A Look At How the Kremlin Slid Into the Chechen War,” New York Times, February 1, 2000.
  • This becomes quite clear if one goes through the Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press (Henceforth CDPP) for the period March-August 1999.
  • FBIS SOV, January 18, 2000, Gordon, Blank, “Russia Rises to Perceived Threats,” pp. 24–27.
  • These kidnappings, raids, etc., are the basis for the campaign against terrorism in general and Chechnya in particular and any objective analysis of the war in Chechnya must admit this fact.
  • Yevgeny Krutikov, “Moscow Afraid of Incurring New Enemies,” Trud, May 26, 1998, p. 1, obtained through Lexis-Nexis.
  • “The Caucasus Will Teach Us,” CDPP, L, No. 30, August 26, 1998, p. 11.
  • “Yeltsin Okays Principles of Military Development,” CDPP, L, No. 31, September 2, 1998, p. 8.
  • Moscow, Ekho Moskoy Radio, in Russian September 26, 1999, From Lexis-Nexis and BBC Monitoring Former Soviet Union.
  • Conversations with Russian officers and analysts in Helsinki and Moscow, June 1999 (Henceforth Conversations).
  • Charles J. Dick, “Russia's 1999 Draft Military Doctrine,” Occasional Brief, Conflict Studies Research Centre, Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, Camberley, Surrey, UK, No. 72, November 16, 1999, p. 4.
  • Blank, Threats to Russian Security, pp. 7–9.
  • “Internal Affairs Ministry and Federal Security Service Divide Up North Caucasus 'Field',” CDPP, LI, No. 20, June 16, 1999, p. 16.
  • Conversations.
  • Dick, “Russia's 1999 Draft Military Doctrine,” pp. 4–5.
  • Ibid.
  • Moscow, Armeiskiy Sbornik, in Russian, November, 1998, FBIS SOV, November 9, 1998.
  • Ibid.
  • FBIS SOV, December 30, 1997.
  • Deborah Yarsike Ball, “Spurred by Kosovo, the Russian Military Is Down but Not Out,” Jane's Intelligence Review, June 1999, p. 17.
  • FBIS SOV, December 30, 1997.
  • Ibid., Christopher Bellamy, “Spiral through Time: Beyond 'Conflict Intensity',” Occasional Papers, Strategic Combat Studies Institute, No. 35, London, 1998, pp. 14–15.
  • Moscow, Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, in Russian, No. 42, November 6–12, 1998. FBIS SOV. November 9, 1998.
  • Ibid.
  • Ibid.
  • Ibid.
  • V.K. Potemkin and Yu. V. Morozov, “Strategic Stability in the Twenty-First Century,” European Security, VI, No. 3, Autumn 1997, p. 39.
  • Ibid., pp. 41–42.
  • Blank , Stephen . 1997 . Why Russian Policy is Failing in Asia 27 – 34 . Carlisle Barracks, PA : Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College .
  • 2000 . Moscow, Novaya Gazeta, online, January 24, 2000, FBIS SOV, January 24, 2000; C. W. Blandy, Dagestan: The Storm: part 1—The 'Invasion' of Afghanistan (Conflict Studies Research Centre, March 2000), pp. 3–10; Amy Knight, “Political Power and Elections: The Role of Russia's Security Agencies,” paper presented to the “Project on Systemic change and International Security in Russia and the New States of Eurasia,” Washington DC, February
  • CDPP, LI, No. 36, October 6, 1999, p. 4.
  • Mark Galeotti, “Why There's a War in Chechnya,” Washington Post Weekly, December 20 and 27, 1999, p. 25.
  • FBIS SOV, November 29, 1999.
  • Andrei Shukshin, “As Anniversary Nears, Russia Vows it Will Never Leave Chechnya,” Philadelphia Inquirer, August 7, 2000.
  • Galeotti, p. 25, “Why There's a War…“
  • Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Newsline, January 31, 2000.
  • Alexander Golts, “Groznyi Battles Intensify: Generals' Moment of Truth,” Russia Journal, No. 46, January 31, 2000.
  • Thus despite the struggle between Kvashnin and Sergeyev which the shortage of funds for training and equipment allegedly precipitated, the fact is that Putin's and the Security Council's August 2000 decisions are irrelevant until and unless the war is terminated because military reform everywhere costs more money, not less, at least initially. And an army at war cannot quickly be restructured or retrained, especially without a draft.
  • Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Newsline, February 4 and February 11, 2000.
  • Simon Saradzhyan, “Russian Military Chiefs Aim to Mend Relations with NATO,” Defense News, May 8, 2000, p. 29; John Lloyd, “Russian Generals Divided over NATO,” Financial Times, July 17, 2000, p. 2.
  • Moscow, Segodmja, in Russian, November 30, 1999, FBIS SOV, November 30, 1999.
  • Richard Staar, “A Russian Rearmament Wish List,” Orbis, XLIJI, No. 4, Fall 1999, pp. 605–12; Richard Staar, “Funding Russia's Rearmament,” Perspective, X, No. 1, September-October 1999, pp. 1–2, 8–10.
  • Moscow, Kommersant, in Russian, May 3, 2000, FBIS SOV, May 3, 2000.
  • Staar, “Funding…” pp. 1–2, 8–10, Staar, “…Wish List,” pp. 605–12.
  • Moscow, Interfax, December 15, 1999, Moscow, ITAR-TASS, in English, November 6, 1999.
  • Moscow, ITAR-TASS, in Russian, November 23, 1999, FBIS SOV, November 23, 1999; FBIS SOV, November 6, 1999; Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in Russian, online, July 22, 1998, FBIS SOV, 98–222, August 13, 1998; Moscow, Izvestiya, in Russian, December 24, 1996, FBIS SOV, 96–248, December 26, 1996; Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in Russian, online, July 22, 1998, FBIS SOV, 98–222, August 13, 1998; Moscow, Izvestiya, in Russian, December 24, 1996, FBIS SOV, 96–248, December 26, 1996, Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in Russian, FBIS SOV, 98–077, March 18, 1998.
  • Staar, “…Wish List,” pp. 606–608, Stephen Blank, “New Strategic Trends in Russo-Chinese Relations,” Testimony to the House Armed Services Committee, Washington DC, July 19, 2000.
  • Ibid.
  • N. Yefimov, “Armiya, Obshchestvo, Reforma,” Svobodnaya Mysl, 1995, pp. 42–43; Moscow, Vremya MN, in Russian, FBIS SOV, October 15, 1999; General Makhmut A. Gareyev (Ret.) If War Comes Tomorrow: The Contours of Future Armed Conflict, Jacob W. Kipp, ed., Yakov Vladimirovich Fomenko, trans. (London: Frank Cass, 1998), pp. 127–42.
  • Stephen Blank, “Valuing the Human Factor: The Reform of Russian Military Manpower,” The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, XII, NO. 1, March 1999, pp. 64–93.
  • There were several stories in the Russian military press in 1999 indicating that the sale of soldiers by their officers in the North Caucasus Military District into slavery or drug addiction was routine For instance, Moscow, Kommersant, online, in Russian, July 23, 1999, FBIS SOV, August 10, 1999.
  • Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, October 8, 1999.
  • Moscow, Segodnya, in Russian, November 24, 1999, FBIS SOV, November 24, 1999; Moscow, Izvestiya, in Russian, November 23, 1999, FBIS SOV, November 23, 1999; Moscow, Izvestiya, in Russian, November 18, 1999, FBIS SOV, November 18, 1999, FBIS Military Monitor, November 29, 1999, FBIS SOV, November 30, 1999.
  • Ibid., Blank, “Russia Rises to Perceived Threats,” pp. 24–26.
  • FBIS SOV, November 23, 1999, FBIS SOV, from Segodnya, November 24, 1999.
  • Lloyd, p. 2, Saradzhyan, p. 29.
  • Rogov, “Does Russia need Universal Disarmament?”
  • Paul Mann, “Russian Shakeup Draw Mixed U.S. Assessment,” Aviation Week & Space Technology, August 14, 2000, pp. 30–31.
  • FBIS SOV, November 23, 1999, FBIS SOV, from Segodnya, November 24, 1999.
  • FBIS SOV, November 24, 1999.
  • Ibid.
  • FBISSOV, November 18, 1999.
  • Moscow, Kommersant, online, in Russian, November 5, 1999, FBIS SOV, November 5, 1999.
  • Ibid.
  • Blank, “State and Armed Forces in Russia: Toward an African Scenario,” pp. 167–96.
  • Ivanov, Interview.
  • FBIS SOV, January 14, 2000.
  • Kontseptsiya.
  • FBIS SOV, January 14, 2000.
  • Blank, Why Russian Policy is Failing in Asia, pp. 27–34; Major General Anatoly V. Bolyatko (Ret.), “Russian National Security Strategy and Its Implications for East Asian Security,” Stephen J. Blank, ed., Russian Security Policy in the Asia-Pacific Region: Two Views (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1996), p. 34; Alexei Zagorsky, “The Post-Cold War Security Agenda of Russia: Implications for Northeast Asia,” Pacific Review, VIII, No. 1, 1995, p. 95; Alexei Arbatov, ed. and commentary, “Russian Air Strategy and Combat Aircraft Production: A Russian View,” Randall Forsberg, ed., The Arms Production Dilemma: Contraction and Restraint in the World Combat Anns Industry, CSIA Studies In International Security, No. 7 (Cambridge, Ma.: MIT Press, 1994), pp. 27–60; Reiner Huber, “NATO Enlargement and CFE Ceilings: A Preliminary Analysis in Anticipation of a Russian Proposal,” European Security, V, No. 3, Autumn 1996, pp. 396–403; V. Tsygichko and Reiner Huber, “Assessing Strategic Stability in a Multi-Polar International System: Two Approaches,” Robert Lowe, trans., Unpublished Paper, 1997.
  • Ibid.

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