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Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Volume 17, 2005 - Issue 2
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Original Articles

Developing an Integrated Approach Toward Ballistic Missile Proliferation

Jing-dong Yuan Research Director, East Asia Nonproliferation Program, Center for Nonproliferation Studies and Associate Professor of International Policy Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, International Security Research and Outreach Program of the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Canada
Pages 127-151 | Published online: 25 Mar 2009

  • The proliferation of cruise missiles is becoming an increasingly important issue in the non-proliferation debates. This article will limit its discussion to ballistic missile related issues only.
  • Cirincione , Joseph . 2005 . Policy Outlook Washington, DC : Carnegie Endowment for International Peace . “The Declining Ballistic Missile Threat,” (February 2005.
  • Andrew Feickert, Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries, CRS Report for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service/Library of Congress, updated March 5, 2004); Cirincione, “The Declining Ballistic Missile Threat, 2005.” See also, Duncan Lennox, “The Global Proliferation of Ballistic Missiles,” Jane's Defence Weekly, December 23, 1989, p. 1384; Arms Control Association, “Fact Sheet: World Wide Ballistic Missile Inventories,” May 2002.
  • Aaron Karp, “The Spread of Ballistic Missiles and the Transformation of Global Security,” The Nonproliferation Review (Fall-Winter 2000), pp. 106–122; Karp, “Going Ballistic? Reversing Missile Proliferation,” Arms Control Today, Vol. 35, Issue 5 (June 2005), pp. 6–11.
  • Sheppard , Ben . 2000 . “South Asia's Ballistic Missile Ambitions,” . In India's Nuclear Security Edited by: Thomas , Raju G. C. and Gupta , Amit . 171 – 200 . Boulder and London : Lynne Rienner Publishers . in, eds., (pp.; Anupam Srivastava, “India's Growing Missile Ambitions: Assessing the Technical and Strategic Dimensions,” Asian Survey, Vol. XL, No. 2 (March/April 2000), pp. 311–341; S. Rajagopal and Sridhar K. Chari, eds., Prospects for Stability in a Nuclear Subcontinent (Bangalore: National Institute of Advanced Studies 2003); Lowell Dittmer ed., South Asia's Nuclear Dilemma: India, Pakistan, and China (Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 2005); Michael Krepon, Rodney W. Jones, and Ziad Haider, eds., Escalation Control and the Nuclear Option in South Asia (Washington, DC: The Stimson Center 2004); W.P.S. Sidhu, “A Languid but Lethal Arms Race,” Disarmament Forum (2004), No. 2, pp. 7–20.
  • Gordon , Rose . November 2002 . November , “India, Pakistan Conduct Missile Tests,” Arms Control Today (available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_11/briefsnov02.asp;, “India, Pakistan Trade Tit-for-Tat Missile Tests,” Arms Control Today (April 2003, available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_04/missiletest_apr03.asp; Andrew Feickert and K. Alan Kronstadt, Missile Proliferation and the Strategic Balance in South Asia. CRS Report for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service/The Library of Congress October 2003); CBS News, “Pakistan: Missile Test Not Message,” October 12, 2004, available at http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/02/12/world/main599901.shtml.
  • USA Today, “Iran successfully tests ‘strategic missile’,” September 25, 2004, available at http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2004-09-25-iran-missile_x.htm; Wade Boese, “Israel, Iran Flex Missiles,” Arms Control Today, Vol. 34, No. 7 (September 2004), available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004_09/Arrow.asp; “Iran's Shahab-4 Denial Fails to Impress U.S.,” Arms Control Today (December 2003), available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_12/newsbriefs.asp.
  • Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Responses (January 2001), p. 3.
  • CIA, “Attachment A: Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 July Through 31 December 2003,” p. 3.
  • Bertil Lintner, “North Korea's Missile Trade Helps Fund Its Nuclear Program,” YaleGlobal, May 3, 2003, available at http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=1546; Mark Smith, “Assessing Missile Proliferation,” in Gustav Lindstrom and Burkard Schmitt, eds., Fighting Proliferation-European Perspectives. Chaillot Papers No. 66 (December 2003), pp. 19–21.
  • Proliferation: Threat and Response, p. 4.
  • Feickert, Missile Proliferation; Feickert, Missile Survey; Andrew Feickert, Iran's Ballistic Missile Capabilities, CRS Report for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service/Library of Congress, updated August 23, 2004).
  • Chaim Braun and Christopher F. Chyba, “Proliferation Rings: New Challenges to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime,” International Security, Vol. 29, No. 2 (Fall 2004), pp. 5–49; David Albright and Holly Higgins, “A bomb for the Ummah,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 59, No. 2 (March/April 2003), pp. 49–55; Gaurav Kampani, “Second Tier Proliferation: The Case of Pakistan and North Korea,” The Nonproliferation Review (Fall-Winter 2002), pp. 107–116.
  • Sokolski , Henry D. November 2004 . Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice November , Carlisle, PA : Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College . (Peter Lavoy, Scott Sagan, and James Wirtz, eds., Planning the Unthinkable: New Powers and the Use of Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Weapons (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press 2000); Robert G. Joseph and John F. Reichart, “The Case for Nuclear Deterrence Today,” Orbis, Vol. 42, No. 1 (Winter 1998), pp. 7–19.
  • Larry A. Niksch, North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program, CRS Issue Brief for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service/Library of Congress, updated May 6, 2005); Sharon Squassoni, Iran's Nuclear Program: Recent Developments, CRS Report for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service/Library of Congress, updated August 2, 2005); “Dealing with Iran and North Korea: Proliferation Challenges,” Strategic Comments, Vol. 9, No. 7 (September 2003).
  • Hewish , Mark . October 2000 . “Ballistic missile threat evolves,” . In Jane's International Defense Review October , 38 – 44 . pp.; Anoushiravan Ehteshami, “Iran's ‘War of the Cities’ Experience,” in Ben Sheppard ed., Ballistic Missile Proliferation (Coulsdon, England: Jane's Information Group 2000), pp. 147–154; Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., “DPRK-Pakistan Ghauri Missile Cooperation,” May 21, 1998, available at http://www.fas.org/news/pakistan/1998/05/ghauri2.htm.
  • Amin Tarzi and Darby Parliament, “Missile Messages: Iran Strikes MKO Bases in Iraq,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 8, No. 2 (Summer 2001), pp. 125–132.
  • Kerr , Paul . 2005 . “North Korea Disavows Missile Moratorium; Talks Remain Stalled,” . Arms Control Today , 35 ( No. 3 ) April : 38 p.
  • Statement for the record to the Senate Subcommittee on International Security, Proliferation, and Federal Services on the ballistic missile threat to the United States by Robert D. Walpole, National Intelligence Officer for Strategic and Nuclear Programs, February 9, 2000.
  • Schneider , William . 2000 . “Weapons Proliferation and Missile Defense: The Strategic Case,” . In Present Dangers: Crisis and Opportunity in American Foreign and Defense Policy Edited by: Kagan , Robert and Kristol , William . 268 San Francisco, CA : Encounter Books . in, eds., (p.
  • Lichterman , Andrew . Beyond Missile Defense (Global Resource Action Center for the Environment 9 October 2002), p., available at http://www.abolition2000.org/groups/missileban/docs/mbmd.pdf.
  • Mistry , Dinshaw . September 2004 . Containing Missile Proliferation: Strategic Technology, Security Regimes, and International Cooperation in Arms Control September , Seattle : University of Washington Press . Arms Control Association, “Fact Sheet: The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) at a Glance,”, available at http://www.armscontrol.org/pdf/MTCR.pdf; (2003; Wyn Q. Bowen, The Politics of Ballistic Missile Nonproliferation (Macmillan in association with the Mountbatten Centre for International Studies, University of Southampton, 2000); Deborah A. Ozga, “A Chronology of the Missile Technology Control Regime,” Nonproliferation Review (Winter 1994), pp. 66–93; Wyn Q. Bowen, “U.S. Policy on Ballistic Missile Proliferation: The MTCR's First Decade (1987–1997),” Nonproliferation Review (Fall 1997), pp. 21–39.
  • Bowen, The Politics of Missile Nonproliferation, ch. 5.
  • However, there might be other important reasons: changed security environments have made continued pursuit of such programs unnecessary, costly, and counter-productive. The Argentine-Brazilian competition is a case in point.
  • Mistry, Containing Missile Proliferation
  • Mistry , Dinshaw . 2003 . 119 – 49 . “Beyond the MTCR: Building a Comprehensive Regime to Contain Ballistic Missile Proliferation,” International Security, Vol. 27, No. 4 (Spring,; Mark Smith, “The MTCR and the Future of Ballistic Missile Non-Proliferation,” Disarmament Diplomacy (February 2001), available at www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd54/54smith.htm; Jing-dong Yuan, The MTCR and Missile Nonproliferation: Moving Toward the Next Phase (Ottawa: International Security Research and Outreach Program, Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Canada May 2000); Karp, “Going Ballistic.”
  • Gahlaut , Seema . October 2004 . Roadmap to Reform: Creating a New Multilateral Export Control Regime October , 185 – 95 . Athens : Center for International Trade and Security . On general critique on supply-side control approaches to proliferation and their limitations, see., (available at http://www.uga.edu/cits/documents/pdf/CITS%20ROADMAP%20Report.pdf; Center for International Trade and Security, Strengthening Multilateral Export Controls: A Nonproliferation Priority (September 2002; United States General Accounting Office, Strategy Needed to Strengthen Multilateral Export Control Regimes (October 2002. On missile related dual-use control issues, see Victor Zaborsky, “Missile Proliferation Risks of International Space Cooperation,” World Affairs (Spring 2003
  • David Cortright and George A. Lopez, “Bombs, Carrots, and Sticks: The Use of Incentives and Sanctions,” Arms Control Today, Vol. 35, No. 2 (March 2005), available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_03/Cortright.asp
  • Mistry, “Beyond the MTCR”; Smith, “The MTCR.”
  • Jonathan Dean, “Step-By-Step Control Over Ballistic and Cruise Missiles,” Disarmament Diplomacy, No. 31 (1998), available at http://www.acronym.org.uk/31ball.htm.
  • Barry R. Posen, “Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony,” International Security, Vol. 28, No. 1 (Summer 2003), pp. 5–46.
  • Wade Boese, “Missile Regime Puts Off China,” Arms Control Today, Vol. 34, No. 9 (November 2004), available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004_11/MTCR.asp; Victor Zaborsky, “Does China Belong in the Missile Technology Regime?” Arms Control Today, Vol. 34, No. 8 (October 2004), pp. 20–26.
  • Wade Boese, “US Imposes Iran-related Sanctions,” Arms Control Today, Vol. 35, No. 1 (January/February 2005), available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_01-02/Iran_Sanctions.asp
  • Wyn Bowen, “The MTCR and EU Expansion,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 5, No. 3 (Spring-Summer 1998), pp. 84–88.
  • This point has been raised in Seema Gahlaut and Victor Zaborsky, “Do Export Control Regimes Have Members They Really Need?” Comparative Strategy, No. 23 (2004), pp. 73–91; Victor Zaborsky, “Does China Belong in the Missile Technology Control Regime?” Arms Control Today (October 2004), available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004_10/Zaborsky.asp; Wade Boese, “Missile Regime Puts Off China,” Arms Control Today (November 2004), available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004_11/MTCR.asp.
  • Press Release, “Plenary Meeting of the Missile Technology Control Regime, 2000,” Helsinki, Finland, October 10–13, 2000, available at http://projects.sipri.se/expcon/mtcr00.htm.
  • Ian Davis, “Low Key Launch of Hague Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation,” BASIC Notes, December 3, 2002, available at http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Notes/2002HaguesBM.htm; Paul Kerr, “Code of Conduct Aims to Stop Ballistic Missile Proliferation,” Arms Control Today, Vol. 33, No. 2 (January/February 2003), available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_01-02/icoc_janfeb03.asp.
  • See the Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, available at http://www.bmaa.gv.at/up-media/114_HCOC.pdf
  • Robert McDougall, “The Prospects for Control: Missile Proliferation, the MTCR and the Broader World,” in Missile Proliferation and Defences: Problems and Prospects, Occasional Paper Issue 7 (July, 2001), pp. 9–14.
  • On a preliminary discussion of such possibility, see Yuan, The MTCR and Missile Nonproliferation
  • Mark Smith, “Stuck on the Launch Pad? The Ballistic Missile Code of Conduct Opens for Business,” Disarmament Diplomacy, No. 68 (December 2002-January 2003), available at http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd68/68op01.htm; Mark Smith, “On Thin Ice: First Steps for the Ballistic Missile Code of Conduct,” Arms Control Today (July/August 2002), available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_07-08/smithjul_aug02.asp.
  • Matthew Rice, “Russia Proposes Global Regime on Missile Proliferation,” Arms Control Today (May 2000).
  • Alexander A. Pikayev, “The Global Control System,” in Missile Proliferation and Defences, pp. 21–27.
  • See the welcome address by Russia's deputy foreign minister G. Mamedov at the International Global Control System Exports Meeting, Moscow, March 16, 2000, available at http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/mtcr/news/GSC_content.htm; Alexander Pikayev, “Global Control System: Too Comprehensive?” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (internet publication).
  • Jonathan Schell, “The Folly of Arms Control,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 79, No. 5 (September/October 2000), pp. 22–46.
  • United Nations General Assembly, “The Issue of Missiles in All Its Aspects: Report of the Secretary-General,” document A/57/229, July 23, 2002, available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/gaiko/naruhodo/data/pdf/data8-3.pdf? OpenElement.
  • W.P.S. Sidhu and Christophe Carle, “Managing Missiles: Blind Spot or Blind Alley?” Disarmament Diplomacy, No. 72 (August-September 2003), available at http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd72/72op3.htm.
  • Karp, “Going Ballistic.”
  • Victor Mizin, “Russia's Missile Industry and U.S. Nonproliferation Options,” Nonproliferation Review (Spring-Summer 1998), pp. 36–47.
  • Dean, “Step-by-Step Controls.”
  • “Agreement Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on Notifications of Launches of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles and Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles,” May 31, 1988, available at http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/treaties/balist1.html.
  • SALTII Treaty, Article XVI, available at http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/treaties/balist1.html.
  • Dean, “Step-by-Step Controls.”
  • Steve Andreasen, “Reagan Was Right: Let's Ban Ballistic Missiles,” Survival, Vol. 46, No. 1 (Spring 2004), pp. 117–130.
  • Karp , Aaron . 1996 . Ballistic Missile Proliferation: The Politics and Technics Oxford : Oxford University Press .
  • Speier , Richard H. 1996 . “A Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty for Missiles?” . In Fighting Proliferation: New Concerns for the Nineties Edited by: Sokolski , Henry . 98 – 107 . Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama : Air University Press . in ed., (on the advantages and disadvantages of converging arms control and nonproliferation, see Zachary S. Davis, “The Convergence of Arms Control and Nonproliferation: Vive La Difference,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 6, No. 3 (Spring-Summer 1999
  • Arms Control Association, “Fact Sheet: Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy, December 1985-June 2003.”
  • Paul Kerr, “North Korea Extends Missile-Test Moratorium,” Arms Control Today (October 2002), available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_10/nkoreaoct02.asp.
  • Paul Kerr, “North Korea Disavows Missile Moratorium; Talks Remain Stalled,” Arms Control Today, Vol. 35, No. 3 (April 2005), p. 38.
  • Aaron Karp, “Notification of Missile Tests: The Easiest Step in Confidence Building?” Arms Control Today, Vol. 35, No. 5 (June 2005), available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_06/Karp.asp#testnotification; Gabrielle Kohlmeier, “India, Pakistan Seek Missile Test Pact,” Arms Control Today, Vol. 34, No. 7 (September 2004), p. 41; Fox News, “India, Pakistan Reach Pact on Missile Test,” August 6, 2005, available at http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,164944,00.html.

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