432
Views
1
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

The Effect of the US Macroeconomic Indicators on the International Geopolitical Risk

ORCID Icon
Pages 495-511 | Received 23 Aug 2021, Accepted 23 Jan 2022, Published online: 01 Feb 2022

References

  • Akadiri, S. S., K. K. Eluwole, A. C. Akadiri, and T. Avci. 2020. “Does Causality between Geopolitical Risk, Tourism and Economic Growth Matter? Evidence from Turkey.” Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management 43: 273–277. doi:10.1016/j.jhtm.2019.09.002.
  • Baker, S. R., N. Bloom, and S. J. Davis. 2016. “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (4): 1593–1636. doi:10.1093/qje/qjw024.
  • Bhattacharyya, R. 2021. “Analysis of the Causes of Trade War between the US and China and Its Impact on Selected Asian Countries.” In Global Tariff War: Economic, Political and Social Implications, edited by R. C. Das, 121–139. Bingley: Emerald Publishing Limited. doi:10.1108/978-1-80071-314-720211010.
  • Bhattarai, S., A. Chatterjee, and W. Y. Park. 2020. “Global Spillover Effects of US Uncertainty.” Journal Monetary Economics 114 (C): 71–89. doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.05.008.
  • Bilgin, M. H., G. Gozgor, and G. Karabulut. 2020. “How Do Geopolitical Risks Affect Government Investment? An Empirical Investigation.” Defence and Peace Economics 31 (5): 550–564. doi:10.1080/10242694.2018.1513620.
  • Blanchard, O. 2017. “Currency Wars, Coordination, And Capital Controls.” International Journal of Central Banking 13 (2): 283–308.
  • Bloom, N. 2014. “Fluctuations in Uncertainty.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 28 (2): 153–175. doi:10.1257/jep.28.2.153.
  • Bouiyour, J., R. Selmi, S. Hammoudeh, and M. E. Wohar. 2019. “What are the Categories of Geopolitical Risks that Could Drive Oil Prices Higher? Acts or Threats?” Energy Economics 84: 104523. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104523.
  • Bouras, C., C. Christou, R. Gupta, and T. Suleman. 2019. “Geopolitical Risks, Returns, and Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets: Evidence from A Panel GARCH Model.” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 55 (8): 1841–1856. doi:10.1080/1540496X.2018.1507906.
  • Caldara, D., and M. Iacoviello. 2019. “Measuring Geopolitical Risk .” Accessed 05 07 2021. Latest version available at. https://www2.bc.edu/matteo-iacoviello/gpr_files/GPR_PAPER.pdf
  • Cheng, C. H. J., and C.-W. (J.) Chiu. 2018. “How Important are Global Geopolitical Risks to Emerging Countries?” International Economics 156: 305–325. doi:10.1016/j.inteco.2018.05.002.
  • Choi, S. 2018. “The Impact of US Financial Uncertainty Shocks on Emerging Market Economies: An International Credit Channel.” Open Economies Review 29 (1): 89–118. doi:10.1007/s11079-017-9471-y.
  • Cunado, J., R. Gupta, C. K. M. Lau, and X. Sheng. 2020. “Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices.” Defence and Peace Economics 30 (6): 692–706. doi:10.1080/10242694.2018.1563854.
  • Cunliff, C., and D. M. Hart. 2019. The Global Energy Innovation Index: National Contributions to the Global Clean Energy Innovation System. Washington, DC, USA: Information Technology & Innovation Foundation.
  • Demir, E., G. Gozgor, and S. R. Paramati. 2019. “Do Geopolitical Risks Matter for Inbound Tourism?” Eurasian Business Review 9 (2): 183–191. doi:10.1007/s40821-019-00118-9.
  • Demir, E., and G. O. Danisman. 2021. “The Impact of Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks on Bank Credit.” The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 57:101444. Article No. doi:10.1016/j.najef.2021.101444.
  • Dickey, D. A., and W. A. Fuller. 1981. “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root.” Econometrica 49 (4): 1057–1072. doi:10.2307/1912517.
  • Dogan, E., M. T. Majeed, and T. Luni. 2021. “Analyzing the Impacts of Geopolitical Risk and Economic Uncertainty on Natural Resources Rents.” Resources Policy 72:102056. Article No. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102056.
  • Elliott, G., T. J. Rothenberg, and J. Stock. 1996. “Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root.” Econometrica 64 (4): 813–836. doi:10.2307/2171846.
  • Ernst & Young. 2020. “Geostrategy in Practice May 2020 .” Accessed 14 07 2021. Available at: https://assets.ey.com/content/dam/ey-sites/ey-com/en_gl/topics/geostrategy/geostrategy-pdf/ey-geostrategy-in-practice-2020-v1.pdf
  • Erşen, E., and M. Çelikpala. 2019. “Turkey and the Changing Energy Geopolitics of Eurasia.” Energy Policy 128: 584–592. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.01.036.
  • Ford, L. W., and J. Goldgeier. 2019. “Who are America’s Allies and are They Paying Their Fair Share of Defense?” Brookins, Policy 2020, December 17th. Accessed 15 07 2021. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/who-are-americas-allies-and-are-they-paying-their-fair-share-of-defense/
  • Gupta, R., G. Gozgor, H. Kaya, and E. Demir. 2019. “Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Trade Flows: Evidence from the Gravity Model.” Eurasian Economic Review 9 (4): 515–530. doi:10.1007/s40822-018-0118-0.
  • Hailemariam, A., and K. Ivanovski. 2021. “The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Tourism.” Current Issues in Tourism 24 (22): 3134–3140. doi:10.1080/13683500.2021.1876644.
  • Hass, R., and A. Denmark. 2020. “More Pain Than Gain: How The US-China Trade War Hurt America.” Brookings, Order from Chaos Accessed 16 7 2021, August 7th. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/07/more-pain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/
  • Hoque, M., E. S. L. Wah, and M. A. S. Zaidi. 2019. “Oil Price Shocks, Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, Geopolitical Risk, and Stock Price in Malaysia: Factor Augmented VAR Approach.” Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja 32: 3700–3732. doi:10.1080/1331677X.2019.1675078.
  • İşeri, E. 2009. “The US Grand Strategy and the Eurasian Heartland in the Twenty-First Century.” Geopolitics 14 (1): 26–46. doi:10.1080/14650040802578658.
  • Issaev, L., and N. Kozhanov. 2021. “Diversifying Relationships: Russian Policy Toward GCC.” International Politics 58 (6): 884–902. doi:10.1057/s41311-021-00286-4.
  • Jurado, K., S. C. Ludvigson, and S. Ng. 2015. “Measuring Uncertainty.” American Economic Review 105 (3): 1177–1216. doi:10.1257/aer.20131193.
  • Kalantzakos, S. 2018. China and the Geopolitics of Rare Earths. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Kalehsar, O. S. 2020. “The Geopolitics of U.S. Energy Sanctions against Iran.” Middle East Policy 27 (2): 108–119. doi:10.1111/mepo.12498.
  • Khan, K., C.-W. Su, and R. Tao. 2021. “Does Oil Prices Cause Financial Liquidity Crunch? Perspective from Geopolitical Risk.” Defence and Peace Economics 32 (3): 312–324. doi:10.1080/10242694.2020.1712640.
  • Mansour-Ichrakieh, L., and H. Zeaiter. 2019. “The Role of Geopolitical Risks on the Turkish Economy Opportunity or Threat.” The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 50:101000. Article No. 101000. doi:10.1016/j.najef.2019.101000.
  • Mastanduno, M. 2019. “Partner Politics: Russia, China, and the Challenge of Extending US Hegemony after the Cold War.” Security Studies 28 (3): 479–504. doi:10.1080/09636412.2019.1604984.
  • Mei, D., F. Ma, Y. Liao, and L. Wang. 2020. “Geopolitical Risk Uncertainty and Oil Future Volatility: Evidence from MIDAS Models.” Energy Economics 86:104624. Article No. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104624.
  • Morlino, L., and M. Quaranta. 2014. “The Non-Procedural Determinants of Responsiveness.” West European Politics 37 (2): 331–360. doi:10.1080/01402382.2014.887878.
  • Muro, D., and G. Vidal. 2017. “Political Mistrust and the Economic Crisis in Southern Europe.” Mediterranean Politics 22 (2): 197–217. doi:10.1080/13629395.2016.1168962.
  • Nye, J. S. 2010. “The Future of American Power: Dominance and Decline in Perspective.” Foreign Affairs 89 (6): 2–12. https://www.jstor.org/stable/20788711
  • Oxford Analytica. 2021 . “How are Leading Companies Managing Today’s Political Risks? Survey and Report. A Report Produced for Willis Towers Watson.” Accessed 14 7 2021. Available at: https://www.willistowerswatson.com/en-GB/Insights/2021/03/2021-political-risk-survey-report.
  • Pesaran, M. H., and Y. Shin. 1998. “An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis.” Econometric Society Monographs 31: 371–413. doi:10.1017/CCOL521633230.011.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith. 2001. “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 16 (3): 289–326. doi:10.1002/jae.616.
  • Petroleum, B. 2021. BP Statistical Review of the World Energy. 70th ed. British Petroleum.
  • Phillips, P. C. B., and P. Perron. 1988. “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression.” Biometrika 75 (2): 335–346. doi:10.2307/2336182.
  • Plakandaras, V., R. Gupta, and W. K. Wong. 2019. “Point and Density Forecasts of Oil Returns: The Role of Geopolitical Risks.” Resources Policy 62: 580–587. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.11.006.
  • Qin, Y., K. Hong, J. Chen, and Z. Zhang. 2020. “Asymmetric Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Energy Returns and Volatility under Different Market Conditions.” Energy Economics 90:104851. Article No. 104851. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104851.
  • Selmi, R., and J. Bouoiyour. 2020. “Arab Geopolitics in Turmoil: Implications of Qatar-Gulf Crisis for Business.” International Economics 161: 100–119. doi:10.1016/j.inteco.2019.11.007.
  • Stockhammar, P., and P. Osterholm. 2016. “The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on Small Open Economies.” Open Economies Review 28 (2): 1–22. doi:10.1007/s11079-016-9424-x.
  • Stokes, D. 2018. “Trump, American Hegemony and the Future of the Liberal International Order.” International Affairs 94 (1): 133–150. doi:10.1093/ia/iix238.
  • Su, C.-W., K. Khan, M. Umar, and W. Zhang. 2021. “Does Renewable Energy Redefine Geopolitical Risks.” Energy Policy 158: 112566. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112566.
  • Sweidan, O. D. 2021a. “The Geopolitical Risk Effect on the US Renewable Energy Deployment.” Journal of Cleaner Production 293:126189. 2021. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126189.
  • Sweidan, O. D. 2021b. “Is the Geopolitical Risk an Incentive or Obstacle to Renewable Energy Deployment? Evidence from A Panel Analysis.” Renewable Energy 178: 377–384. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2021.06.089.
  • Thornton, J., C. Di Tommaso, J. Thornton, and C. Di Tommaso. 2018. “Unconventional Monetary Policy and the ‘Currency Wars’.” Finance Research Letters 26: 250–254. doi:10.1016/j.frl.2018.02.010.
  • Triggs, A. J., and W. J. McKibbin. 2021. “Global Implications of A US-Led Currency War.” The World Economy 44 (6): 1484–1508. doi:10.1111/twec.13112.
  • Wang, K.-H. C.-W. S., M. Umar, and M. Umar. 2021. “Geopolitical Risk and Crude Oil Security: A Chinese Perspective.” Energy 219:119555. Article No. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.119555.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.