Is Geopolitical Turmoil Driving Petroleum Prices and Financial Liquidity Relationship? Wavelet-Based Evidence from Middle-East

References

• Abdel-Latif, H., and M. El-Gamal. 2019. “Antecedents of War: The Geopolitics of Low Oil Prices and Decelerating Financial Liquidity.” Applied Economics Letters 26 (9): 765–769. doi:10.1080/13504851.2018.1494802.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Abderrezak, A. 2005. “Oil Price Shocks—money Supply Causality: Some Evidence from Algeria.” The Journal of North African Studies 10 (2): 173–181. doi:10.1080/13629380500252218.
   Google Scholar
• Aguiar-Conraria, L., and M. J. Soares. 2011. “Oil and the Macroeconomy: Using Wavelets to Analyze Old Issues.” Empirical Economics 40 (3): 645–655. doi:10.1007/s00181-010-0371-x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Al‐Roubaie, A. 2010.“An assessment of international liquidity and higher oil prices.“ World Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development 6 (3): 161–180. doi: 10.1108/20425961201000013.
   Google Scholar
• Aloui, C., B. Hkiri, S. Hammoudeh, and M. Shahbaz. 2018. “A Multiple and Partial Wavelet Analysis of the Oil Price, Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia.” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 54 (4): 935–956. doi:10.1080/1540496X.2017.1423469.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alsamara, M., Z. Mrabet, M. Dombrecht, and K. Barkat. 2017. “Asymmetric Responses of Money Demand to Oil Price Shocks in Saudi Arabia: A Non-linear ARDL Approach.” Applied Economics 49 (37): 3758–3769. doi:10.1080/00036846.2016.1267849.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alsweilem, K. A. 2015. “A Stable and Efficient Fiscal Framework for Saudi Arabia.” Belfer Center Report. Harvard Kennedy School.
   Google Scholar
• Antonakakis, N., R. Gupta, C. Kollias, and S. Papadamou. 2017. “Geopolitical Risks and the Oil-stock Nexus over 1899–2016.” Finance Research Letters 23: 165–173. doi:10.1016/j.frl.2017.07.017.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Apergis, N., A. Aslan, G. C. Aye, and R. Gupta. 2015. “The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on Growth across US States.” Energy Exploration & Exploitation 33 (4): 575–590. doi:10.1260/0144-5987.33.4.575.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Askari, H., and N. Krichene. 2008. “Oil Price Dynamics (2002–2006).” Energy Economics 30 (5): 2134–2153. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2007.12.004.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baffes, J., M. A. Kose, F. Ohnsorge, and M. Stocker. 2015. “The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses.” Consequences, and Policy Responses, June. Accessed 11 December 2020. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2624398
   Google Scholar
• Bazzi, S., and C. Blattman. 2014. “Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 6 (4): 1–38. doi:10.1257/mac.6.4.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blomberg, B., G. Hess, and J. H. Jackson. 2009. “Terrorism and the Returns to Oil.” Economics & Politics 21 (3): 409–432. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0343.2009.00357.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Caldara, D., and M. Iacoviello. 2017. “Measuring Geopolitical Risk.” Unpublished working paper. Accessed 15 November 2020. https://www2.bc.edu/matteo-iacoviello/gpr_files/GPR_PAPER.Pdf
   Google Scholar
• Caselli, F., M. Morelli, and D. Rohner. 2015. “The Geography of Interstate Resource Wars.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 130 (1): 267–315. doi:10.1093/qje/qju038.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen, H., H. Liao, B. J. Tang, and Y. M. Wei. 2016. “Impacts of OPEC’s Political Risk on the International Crude Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis Based on the SVAR Models.” Energy Economics 57: 42–49. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.04.018.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cotet, A. M., and K. K. Tsui. 2013. “Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross Country Evidence Really Show?” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5 (1): 49–80. doi:10.1257/mac.5.1.49.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cunado, J., R. Gupta, C. K. M. Lau, and X. Sheng. 2020. “Time-varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices.” Defence and Peace Economics 31 (6): 692–706. doi:10.1080/10242694.2018.1563854.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dadwal, S. R. 2001. “The Global Oil Market after 9/11: On the Brink of a Crisis?” Strategic Analysis 25 (9): 1059–1070. doi:10.1080/09700160108459021.
   Google Scholar
• Dibooğlu, S., and E. Aleisa. 2004. “Oil Prices, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Saudi Arabia.” Contemporary Economic Policy 22 (1): 50–62. doi:10.1093/cep/byh005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Duan, W., A. Khurshid, N. Nazir, and A. C. Calin. 2021b. “Pakistan’s Energy Sector—from a Power Outage to Sustainable Supply. Examining the Role of China–Pakistan Economic Corridor.” Energy & Environment 0958305X2110447. doi:10.1177/0958305X211044785.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Duan, W., A. Khurshid, A. Rauf, K. Khan, and A. C. Calin. 2021a. “How Geopolitical Risk Drives Exchange Rate and Oil Prices? A Wavelet-based Analysis.” Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 16 (9): 861–877. doi:10.1080/15567249.2021.1965262.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gaibulloev, K., and T. Sandler. 2008. “Growth Consequences of Terrorism in Western Europe.” Kyklos 61 (3): 411–424. doi:10.1111/j.1467-6435.2008.00409.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva. 2004. “Application of the Cross Wavelet Transform and Wavelet Coherence to Geophysical Time Series.” Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 11 (5/6): 561–566. doi:10.5194/npg-11-561-2004.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hamilton, J. D. 2009. “Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08 (No. W15002).” National Bureau of Economic Research. doi:10.3386/w15002.
   Google Scholar
• Hsieh, W. J. 2008. “Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Conditions on Output Fluctuations for Korea.” Journal of International and Global Economic Studies 1 (2): 84–91. Accessed 16 December 2020. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.513.503&rep=rep1&type=pdf
   Google Scholar
• Hudgins, B., P. Parker, and R. N. Scott. 1993. “A New Strategy for Multifunction Myoelectric Control.” IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering 40 (1): 82–94. doi:10.1109/10.204774.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Humphreys, M. 2005. “Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution: Uncovering the Mechanisms.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4): 508–537. doi:10.1177/0022002705277545.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ji, Q., B. Y. Liu, and Y. Fan. 2019. “Risk Dependence of CoVaR and Structural Change between Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: A Time-varying Copula Model.” Energy Economics 77: 80–92. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.07.012.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ji, Q., B. Y. Liu, H. Nehler, and G. S. Uddin. 2018. “Uncertainties and Extreme Risk Spillover in the Energy Markets: A Time-varying Copula-based CoVaR Approach.” Energy Economics 76: 115–126. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.10.010.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ji, Q., H. Y. Zhang, and D. Zhang. 2019. “The Impact of OPEC on East Asian Oil Import Security: A Multidimensional Analysis.” Energy Policy 126: 99–107. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.019.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jiménez-Rodríguez*, R., and M. Sánchez. 2005. “Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Empirical Evidence for Some OECD Countries.” Applied Economics 37 (2): 201–228. doi:10.1080/0003684042000281561.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jo, S. 2014. “The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on Global Real Economic Activity.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 46 (6): 1113–1135. doi:10.1111/jmcb.12135.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jovanovic, B., and M. Petreski. 2012. “Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Fixed Exchange Rate: The Case of Macedonia.” Economic Systems 36 (4): 594–608. doi:10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.02.003.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kesicki, F. 2010. “The Third Oil Price surge–What’s Different This Time?” Energy Policy 38 (3): 1596–1606. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.044.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Khan, K., C. W. Su, and R. Tao. 2020. “Does Oil Prices Cause Financial Liquidity Crunch? Perspective from Geopolitical Risk.” Defence and Peace Economics 32 (3): 312–324. doi:10.1080/10242694.2020.1712640.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Khurshid, A., and X. Deng. 2021. “Innovation for Carbon Mitigation: A Hoax or Road toward Green Growth? Evidence from Newly Industrialized Economies.” Environmental Science and Pollution Research 28 (6): 6392–6404. doi:10.1007/s11356-020-10723-1.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Khurshid, A., Y. Kedong, A. C. Calin, and O. C. Popovici. 2016. “Do Remittances Hurt Domestic Prices? New Evidence from Low, Lower-Middle and Middle–Income Groups.” ESPERA 19 (4): 95–114.
   Google Scholar
• Khurshid, A., Y. Kedong, A. C. Calin, C. G. Zeldea, S. Qiang, and D. Wenqi. 2020. “Is the Relationship between Remittances and Economic Growth Influenced by the Governance and Development of the Financial Sector? New Evidence from the Developing Countries.” Journal for Economic Forecasting 1: 37–56.
   Google Scholar
• Khurshid, A., Y. Kedong, A. C. Călin, M. E. N. G. Zhaosu, and N. Nazir. 2018. “Remittances Inflows, Gain of Foreign Exchange or Trade Loss? New Evidence from Low, Lower-Middle and Middle-Income Groups.” ESPERA 21 (1): 20–41.
   Google Scholar
• Khurshid, A., and K. Khan. 2021. “How COVID-19 Shock Will Drive the Economy and Climate? A Data-driven Approach to Model and Forecast.” Environmental Science and Pollution Research 28 (3): 2948–2958. doi:10.1007/s11356-020-09734-9.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kollias, C., S. Papadamou, and V. Arvanitis. 2013. “Does Terrorism Affect the Stock‐Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries.” Southern Economic Journal 79 (4): 832–848. doi:10.4284/0038-4038-2012.309.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kumar, S., and J. Liu. 2013. “Impact of Terrorism on International Stock Markets.” Journal of Applied Business and Economics 14 (4): 42–60. Accessed 07 November 2020. http://www.na-businesspress.com/JABE/kumar_abstract.html
   Google Scholar
• Leder, F., and J. N. Shapiro. 2008. “This Time It’s Different: An Inevitable Decline in World Petroleum Production Will Keep Oil Product Prices High, Causing Military Conflicts and Shifting Wealth and Power from Democracies to Authoritarian Regimes.” Energy Policy 36 (8): 2850–2852. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.04.015.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee, C. Y. 2018. “Oil and Terrorism: Uncovering the Mechanisms.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 62 (5): 903–928. doi:10.1177/0022002716673702.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Loh, L. 2013. “Co-movement of Asia-Pacific with European and US Stock Market Returns: A Cross-time-frequency Analysis.” Research in International Business and Finance 29: 1–13. doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2013.01.001.
   Google Scholar
• Marschall, C. 2003. Iran’s Persian Gulf Policy: From Khomeini to Khatami. London: Routledge. doi:10.4324/9780203417928.
   Google Scholar
• Masih, M., and H. A. Majid. 2013. “Comovement of Selected International Stock Market Indices: A Continuous Wavelet Transformation and Cross Wavelet Transformation Analysis.“ Accessed 17 November 2020. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/58313
   Google Scholar
• Noguera-Santaella, J. 2016. “Geopolitics and the Oil Price.” Economic Modelling 52: 301–309. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2015.08.018.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ormerod, P., and S. Riordan. 2004. “A New Approach to the Analysis of Geopolitical Risk.” Diplomacy and Statecraft 15 (4): 643–654. doi:10.1080/09592290490886757.
   Google Scholar
• Pezeshki, S., and F. Fesharaki. 1994. Iran’s Petroleum Policy: Current Trends and the Future Outlook (No. DOE/IE/10859–T4). Washington DC, United States.: East-West Center.
   Google Scholar
• Qiang, S., A. Khurshid, A. C. Calin, and K. Khan. 2019. “Do Remittances Contribute to the Development of Financial Institutions? New Evidence from the Developing World.” Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting 22 (2): 78–97. Accessed 14 October 2020. https://ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_19/rjef2_2019p78-97.pdf
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ramady, M. A. 2010. The Saudi Arabian Economy: Policies, Achievements, and Challenges. Berlin/Heidelberg, Germany: Springer Science & Business Media.
   Google Scholar
• Ratti, R. A., and J. L. Vespignani. 2013. “Crude Oil Prices and Liquidity, the BRIC and G3 Countries.” Energy Economics 39: 28–38. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2013.04.003.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Roueff, F., and R. Von Sachs. 2011. “Locally Stationary Long Memory Estimation.” Stochastic Processes and Their Applications 121 (4): 813–844. doi:10.1016/j.spa.2010.12.004.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rua, A. 2010. “Measuring Co-movement in the Time–frequency Space.” Journal of Macroeconomics 32 (2): 685–691. doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2009.12.005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rua, A. 2012. “Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Time‐frequency View.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 74 (6): 875–885. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00680.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rua, A., and L. C. Nunes. 2009. “International Co-movement of Stock Market Returns: A Wavelet Analysis.” Journal of Empirical Finance 16 (4): 632–639. doi:10.1016/j.jempfin.2009.02.002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Su, C. W., K. Khan, R. Tao, and M. Nicoleta-Claudia. 2019. “Does Geopolitical Risk Strengthen or Depress Oil Prices and Financial Liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia.” Energy 187: 116003. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2019.116003.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Suwaidi, J. S. Ed. 1996. “Iran and the Gulf: A Search for Stability.” IB Tauris.
   Google Scholar
• Torrence, C., and G. P. Compo. 1998. “A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79 (1): 61–78. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0061:APGTWA>2.0.CO;2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Uddin, G. S., S. Bekiros, and A. Ahmed. 2018. “The Nexus between Geopolitical Uncertainty and Crude Oil Markets: An Entropy-based Wavelet Analysis.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 495: 30–39. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2017.12.025.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang, X., A. Khurshid, S. Qayyum, and A. C. Calin. 2021. “The Role of Green Innovations, Environmental Policies and Carbon Taxes in Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals of Carbon Neutrality.” Environmental Science and Pollution Research 1–15. doi:10.1007/s11356-021-16208-z.
   Google Scholar
• Zhang, D., Q. Ji, and A. M. Kutan. 2019. “Dynamic Transmission Mechanisms in Global Crude Oil Prices: Estimation and Implications.” Energy 175: 1181–1193. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2019.03.162.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhang, H., A. Khurshid, W. Xinyu, and A. M. Băltăţeanu. 2021. “Corporate Financial Risk Assessment and Role of Big Data; New Perspective Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process.” Journal for Economic Forecasting 2: 181–199.
   Google Scholar
• Zhou, J. 2010. “Comovement of International Real Estate Securities Returns: A Wavelet Analysis.” Journal of Property Research 27 (4): 357–373. doi:10.1080/09599916.2010.517853.
   Google Scholar