326
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Articles

Behavioural science applied to risk-based decision processes: a case study for earthquake prone buildings in New Zealand

, ORCID Icon, , ORCID Icon, &
Pages 144-164 | Received 21 Jul 2021, Accepted 11 Jun 2022, Published online: 08 Jul 2022

References

  • Aigwi, Itohan Esther, Temitope Egbelakin, Jason Ingham, Robyn Phipps, James Rotimi, and Olga Filippova. 2019. “A Performance-Based Framework to Prioritise Underutilised Historical Buildings for Adaptive Reuse Interventions in New Zealand.” Sustainable Cities and Society 48: 101547. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101547.
  • Braun, V., and V. Clarke. 2006. “Using Thematic Analysis in Psychology.” Qualitative Research in Psychology 3 (2): 77–101.
  • Brown, Colin B, and David G Elms. 2013. “Engineering Decisions: Framework, Process and Concerns.” Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems 30 (3–4): 175–198. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2013.853745.
  • Brown, C., M. Nuth, J. Hopkins, D. Brunsdon, E. E. Hudson-Doyle, and R. Ball. 2021. “Earthquake Prone Public Buildings: Balancing Life Safety Risks and Community Costs.” In NZSEE 2021 annual conference, 12-14 April 2021, christchurch, New Zealand.
  • Carmichael, David G. 2020. “Bias and Decision Making – an Overview Systems Explanation.” Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems 37 (1–2): 48–61. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2020.1744133.
  • Crawford, Miles H, Wendy S.A. Saunders, Emma E.H. Doyle, Graham S Leonard, and David M. Johnston. 2019. “The Low-Likelihood Challenge: Risk Perception and the Use of Risk Modelling for Destructive Tsunami Policy Development in New Zealand Local Government.” Australasian Journal of Disaster and Trauma Studies 23 (1): 3–20.
  • de Bruine, Bruin, W. Fischhoff, B. Millstein, and S. G. Halpern-Felsher. 2000. “Verbal and Numerical Expressions of Probability: “it's a Fifty–Fifty Chance”.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 81 (1): 115–131. doi:https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1999.2868.
  • Demeritt, D., H. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, J. Thielen, J. Bartholmes, and M.-H. Ramos. 2007. “Ensemble Predictions and Perceptions of Risk, Uncertainty, and Error in Flood Forecasting.” Environmental Hazards 7 (2): 115–127. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.05.001.
  • Doyle, Emma E.H., John McClure, David M. Johnston, and Douglas Paton. 2014. “Communicating Likelihoods and Probabilities in Forecasts of Volcanic Eruptions.” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 272: 1–15. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.12.006.
  • Eiser, J. Richard, Ann Bostrom, Ian Burton, David M. Johnston, John McClure, Douglas Paton, Joop Van Der Pligt, and Mathew P. White. 2012. “Risk Interpretation and Action: A Conceptual Framework for Responses to Natural Hazards.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 1 (1): 5–16. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2012.05.002.
  • Elms, David G, and Colin B Brown. 2012. “Professional Decisions: The Central Role of Models.” Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems 29 (3): 165–175. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2011.640752.
  • Eppler, Martin J., and Jeanne Mengis. 2004. “The Concept of Information Overload: A Review of Literature from Organization Science, Accounting, Marketing, MIS, and Related Disciplines.” The Information Society 20 (5): 325–344.
  • Festinger, Leon. 1957. A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. Vol. 2. Stanford, CA: Stanford university press.
  • Grant, Damian N, Julian J Bommer, Rui Pinho, G. Michele Calvi, Agostino Goretti, and Fabrizio Meroni. 2007. “A Prioritization Scheme for Seismic Intervention in School Buildings in Italy.” Earthquake Spectra 23 (2): 291–314. doi:https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2722784.
  • Hare, J. 2019. “A Different Way of Thinking About Seismic Risks: A Call for Debate.” In pacific Conference on earthquake engineering. 4-6 April. auckland, New Zealand.
  • Haynes, K., J. Barclay, and N. Pidgeon. 2008. “Whose Reality Counts? Factors Affecting the Perception of Volcanic Risk.” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 172 (3–4): 259–272.
  • Hudson-Doyle, Emma E., and David Johnston. 2018. “Reflections on the Communication of Uncertainty : Developing Decision- Relevant Information.” In Proceedings of the ISCRAM Asia Pacitic Conference 2018, edited by K. Stock and D. Bunker. Wellington, N.Z.: International Association for Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. http://idl.iscram.org/files/emmahudson-doyle/2018/1650_EmmaHudson-Doyle_etal2018.pdf
  • Joslyn, Susan L, and Rebecca M Nichols. 2009. “Probability or Frequency? Expressing Forecast Uncertainty in Public Weather Forecasts.” Meteorological Applications 16 (3): 309–314. doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/met.121.
  • Kahan, Dan M., Ellen Peters, Maggie Wittlin, Paul Slovic, Lisa Larrimore Ouellette, Donald Braman, and Gregory Mandel. 2012. “The Polarizing Impact of Science Literacy and Numeracy on Perceived Climate Change Risks.” Nature Climate Change 2 (10): 732–735. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1547.
  • Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky. 1981. “The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.” Science 221: 453–8.
  • Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. 1979. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk.” Econometrica 47: 263–291. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185.
  • Kasperson, Roger E, Dominic Golding, and Seth Tuler. 1992. “Social Distrust as a Factor in Siting Hazardous Facilities and Communicating Risks.” Journal of Social Issues 48 (4): 161–187.
  • Khan, Shabana, Jyoti L. Mishra, Kuna-hui Elaine Lin, and Emma EH Doyle. 2017. “Rethinking Communication in Risk Interpretation and Action.” Natural Hazards 88 (3): 1709–1726. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2942-z.
  • Kloprogge, P., J. P. van der Sluijs, and A. C. Petersen. 2011. “A Method for the Analysis of Assumptions in Model-Based Environmental Assessments.” Environmental Modelling & Software 26 (3): 289–301.
  • Loewenstein, G. F., E. U. Weber, C. K. Hsee, and N. Welch. 2001. “Risk as Feelings.” Psychological Bulletin 127 (2): 267–286.
  • MBIE. 2017. EPB Methodology: The Methodology to Identify Earthquake-Prone Buildings.” Wellington, N.Z.
  • MBIE, Earthquake Commission, NZSEE, SESOC, NZGS. 2017. The Seismic Assessment of Existing Buildings – Technical Guidelines for Engineering Assessment.”
  • McClure, J., L. Henrich, D. M. Johnston, and E. E. H. Doyle. 2016. “Are Two Earthquakes Better Than One? How Earthquakes in Two Different Regions Affect Risk Judgments and Preparation in Three Locations.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 16: 192–199.
  • Mcclure, John, Jo White, and Chris G Sibley. 2009. “Framing Effects on Preparation Intentions: Distinguishing Actions and Outcomes.” Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal 18 (2): 187–199. doi:https://doi.org/10.1108/09653560910953252.
  • Meacham, Brain J., and Ilsbrand J. van Straalen. 2018. “A Socio-Technical System Framework for Risk-informed Performance-Based Building Regulation.” Building Research and Information 46 (4): 444–462.
  • Mileti, Dennis S, and Paul W. O’Brien. 1992. “Warnings During Disaster: Normalizing Communicated Risk.” Social Problems 39 (1): 40–57. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/3096912.
  • Murphy, C., and P. Gardoni. 2007. “Determining Public Policy and Resource Allocation Priorities for Mitigating Natural Hazards: A capabilities-Based Approach.” Science and Engineering Ethics 13 (4): 489–504.
  • Nuth, Michael, Charlotte Brown, Dave Brunsdon, W. J. Hopkins, Emma E Hudson-Doyle, and Richard Ball. 2021. Managing Earthquake-Prone Council Buildings: Balancing Life Safety Risks and Community Costs.” Wellington, New Zealand.
  • Patt, Anthony, and Suraje Dessai. 2005. “Communicating Uncertainty: Lessons Learned and Suggestions for Climate Change Assessment.” Comptes Rendus Geoscience 337 (4): 425–441. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2004.10.004.
  • Peters, Ellen, Daniel Västfjäll, Paul Slovic, C. K. Mertz, Ketti Mazzocco, and Stephan Dickert. 2006. “Numeracy and Decision Making.” Psychological Science 17 (5): 407–413. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01720.x.
  • Sandman, Peter M. 1993. Responding to Community Outrage: Strategies for Effective Risk Communication Fairfax. VA: American Industrial Hygiene Assn.
  • Sevieri, Giacomo, Carmine Galasso, Dina D'Ayala, Richard De Jesus, Andres Oreta, Mary Earl Daryl A Grio, and Rhodella Ibabao. 2020. “A Multi-Hazard Risk Prioritisation Framework for Cultural Heritage Assets.” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20 (5): 1391–1414. doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1391-2020.
  • Simon, Herbert A. 1955. “A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 69 (1): 99–118.
  • Simon, Herbert A. 1992. “What is an “Explanation” of Behavior?” Psychological Science 3 (3): 150–161.
  • Slovic, Paul, Melissa L Finucane, Ellen Peters, and Donald G MacGregor. 2004. “Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts About Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality.” Risk Analysis 24 (2): 311–322. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00433.x.
  • Solberg, C., T. Rossetto, and H. Joffe. 2010. “The Social Psychology of Seismic Hazard Adjustment: Re-Evaluating the International Literature.” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10: 1663–1677. doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1663-2010.
  • Stewart, Iain S., Johanna Ickert, and Robin Lacassin. 2017. “A Reassessment of the Anomalous Geomagnetic Diurnal Variation two Months Prior to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, Japan (Mw 9.0).” Annals of Geophysics 60: 1–17. doi:https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-7467.
  • Sword-Daniels, V., C. Eriksen, E. E. Hudson-Doyle, R. Alaniz, C. Adler, T. Schenk, and S. Vallance. 2018. “Embodied Uncertainty: Living with Complexity and Natural Hazards.” Journal of Risk Research 21 (3): 290–307.
  • Vinnell, Lauren Jennifer, John McClure, and Taciano Lemos Milfont. 2017. “Do Framing Messages Increase Support for Earthquake Legislation?” Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal 26 (1): 28–40. doi:https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-06-2016-0127.
  • Vinnell, L. J., T. L. Milfont, and J. McClure. 2019. “Do Social Norms Affect Support for Earthquake-Strengthening Legislation? Comparing the Effects of Descriptive and Injunctive Norms.” Environment and Behavior 51 (4): 376–400.
  • Wachinger, Gisela, Ortwin Renn, Chloe Begg, and Christian Kuhlicke. 2013. “The Risk Perception Paradox-Implications for Governance and Communication of Natural Hazards.” Risk Analysis 33 (6): 1049–1065. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01942.x.
  • Windschitl, Paul D., and Elke U. Weber. 1999. “The Interpretation of ‘Likely’ Depends on the Context, but ‘70%’ Is 70% - Right? The Influence of Associative Processes on Perceived Certainty.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 25 (6): 1514–1533.
  • Yin, R. K. 2009. Case Study Research, Design and Method. London: Sage Publications Ltd.
  • Zawacki, Brianna Solange, Reza Jafarzadeh, Ingham Jason Maxwell, and Walsh Kevin Quinn. 2020. “Proposed Decision-Making Framework for the Risk Management of Publicly Owned Earthquake Prone Buildings.” Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities 34 (5): 4020087. doi:https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0001489.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.