Demonstrating Attainment of the Air Quality Standards: Integration of Observations and Model Predictions into the Probabilistic Framework

REFERENCES

• Guideline for Regulatory Application of the Urban Airshed Model; EPA-450/4-91-013; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Research Triangle Park, NC, 1991.
   Google Scholar
• Seaman, N.L. Meteorological Modeling for Air-Quality Assessments; Atmos. Environ. 2000, 34, 2231–2259.
   Google Scholar
• Russell, A.; Dennis, R. NARSTO Critical Review of Photochemical Models and Modeling; Atmos. Environ. 2000, 34, 2283–2324.
   Google Scholar
• Hogrefe, C.; Rao, S.T.; Kasibhatla, P.; Kallos, G.; Tremback, C.J.; Hao, W.; Olerud, D.; Xiu, A.; McHenry, J.; Alapaty, K. Evaluating the Performance of Regional-Scale Photochemical Modeling Systems: Part I—Meteorological Predictions; Atmos. Environ. 2001, 35, 4159–4174.
   Google Scholar
• Hogrefe, C.; Rao, S.T.; Kasibhatla, P.; Hao, W.; Sistla, G.; Mathur, R.; McHenry, J. Evaluating the Performance of Regional-Scale Photochemical Modeling Systems: Part II—Ozone Predictions; Atmos. Environ. 2001, 35, 4175–4188.
   Google Scholar
• Biswas, J.; Rao, S.T.; Hogrefe, C.; Hao, W.; Sistla, G. Evaluating the Performance of Regional-Scale Photochemical Modeling Systems: Part III—Precursor Predictions and Ozone-Precursor Relationships; Atmos. Environ., in press.
   Google Scholar
• Sistla, G.; Hao, W.; Ku, J.-Y.; Kallos, G.; Lagouvardos, K.; Papadopoulos, A.; Zhang, K.; Mao, H.; Rao, S.T. An Operational Evaluation of Two Regional-Scale Ozone Air Quality Modeling Systems Over the Eastern United States; Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 2001, 82, 945–964.
   Google Scholar
• Sistla, G.; Civerolo, K.; Hao, W.; Rao, S.T. A Comparison of Measured and Simulated Ozone Concentrations in the Rural Areas of the Eastern United States during Summer 1995; J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 2001, 5i, 374–386.
   Google Scholar
• Biswas, J.; Rao, S.T. Uncertainties in Episodic Ozone Modeling Stemming from Uncertainties in Meteorological Fields; J. Appl. Meteor. 2001, 40, 117–136.
   Google Scholar
• Biswas, J.; Rao, S.T.; Zhang, K.; Seaman, N. Sensitivity of the Regional Ozone Modeling Results to Different Physical Processes within a Meteorological Model. In Proceedings of the 11th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA, Long Beach, CA, January 9-14, 2000; American Meteorological Society: Boston, MA; pp 121–126.
   Google Scholar
• Rao, S.T.; Hogrefe, C.; Biswas, J.; Mao, H.; Zurbenko, I.G.; Porter, P.S. How Should the Photochemical Modeling Systems Be Used in Guiding Emissions Management Decisions? In Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application XIV; Gryning, S.E., Schiermeier, F., Eds.; Kluwer Academic/Plenum: New York, 2001; pp 25–34.
   Google Scholar
• Rao, S.T.; Hogrefe, C.; Mao, H.; Hao, W.; Ku, J.-Y.; Sistla, G.; Zhang, K.; Biswas, J.; Kasibhatla, P.; Hansen, D.A. Using Photochemical Modeling Systems in Designing Emissions Control Strategies. In Proceedings of the 15th International Clean Air & Environment Conference, Sydney, Australia, November 26-30, 2000; pp 159–164.
   Google Scholar
• Ku, J.-Y.; Mao, H.; Zhang, K.; Civerolo, K.; Rao, S.T. Numerical Investigation of the Effects of Boundary-Layer Evolution on the Predictions of Ozone and the Efficacy of Emission Control Options in the Northeastern United States; Environ. Fluid Mech., in press.
   Google Scholar
• Draft Report on the Use of Models and Other Analyses in Attainment Demonstrations for the 8-Hr Ozone NAAQS; EPA-44/R-99-0004; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Research Triangle Park, NC, 1999.
   Google Scholar
• EPA Regional Modeling Center Homepage. Available online at http:// www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/regmodcenter/t28.htm.
   Google Scholar
• National Air Pollutant Emission Trends Update, 1970-1997; EPA-454/ E-98-007; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Research Triangle Park, NC, 1998. Available online at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ trends/trends97.
   Google Scholar
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Finding of Significant Contribution and Rulemaking for Certain States in the Ozone Transport Assessment Group Region for Purposes of Reducing Regional Transport of Ozone; Fed. Regist. 1998, 63 (207), 57355-57404. Available online at wais.access.gpo.gov.
   Google Scholar
• Procedures for Developing Base Year and Future Year Mass and Modeling Inventories for the Tier 2 Final Rulemaking; EPA420-R-99-034; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Research Triangle Park, NC, 1999. Available online at http://www.epa.gov/orcdizux/regs/ld-hwy/tier2/frm/tsd/r99034.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Rao, S.T.; Sistla, G.; Pagnotti, V.; Petersen, W.B.; Irwin, J.S.; Turner, D.B. Resampling and Extreme Value Statistics in Air Quality Model Performance Evaluation; Atmos. Environ. 1985, 19, 1503–1518.
   Google Scholar
• Roberts, E.M. Review of Statistics of Extreme Values with Applications to Air Quality Data, Part I. Review; J. Air Pollut. Control Assoc. 1979, 29, 632.
   Google Scholar
• Breiman, L.; Stone, C.J. Broad Spectrum Estimates and Confidence Intervals for Tail Quantiles; Technical Report No. 46; Department of Statistics, University of California: Berkeley, CA, 1985.
   Google Scholar
• Gumbel, E.J. Statistics of Extremes; Columbia University: New York, 1958; pp 75–155.
   Google Scholar
• David, H.A. Order Statistics; John Wiley: New York, 1981; pp 8–22.
   Google Scholar
• Rao, S.T.; Sistla, G. On the Use of Numerical Models in Ozone Attainment Demonstrations. In Air Pollution Modeling and its Applications IX; Dop, H.v., Kallos, G., Eds.; Plenum Press: New York, 1992; pp 41–48.
   Google Scholar
• Chock, D.P. Statistics of Extreme Values of a First-Order Markov Normal Process: An Exact Result; Atmos. Environ. 1984, 18, 2461–2470.
   Google Scholar
• Efron, B. Computers and the Theory of Statistics: Thinking the Unthinkable; SIAM Rev. 1979; 21 (4), 460–480.
   Google Scholar
• Civerolo, K.; Rao, S.T. Space-Time Analysis of Precipitation-Weighted Sulfate Concentrations over the Eastern United States; Atmos. Environ., in press.
   Google Scholar
• Hogrefe, C. Evaluating the Regional-Scale Photochemical Modeling Systems and Using Them for Regulatory Policy-Making. Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, NY, 2000.
   Google Scholar
• Hogrefe, C.; Rao, S.T.; Zurbenko, I.G.; Porter, P.S. Interpreting the Information in Ozone Observations and Model Predictions Relevant to Regulatory Policies in the Eastern United States; Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 2000, 81, 2083–2106.
   Google Scholar