References
- Abramov, A., Davydov, S., Ivashchenko, A., Karelin, D., Kholodov, A., Kraev, G., Lupachev, A., Maslakov, A., Ostroumov, V., Rivkina, E., Shmelev, D., Sorokovikov, V., Tregubov, O., Veremeeva, A., Zamolodchikov, D., & Zimov, S. (2019). Two decades of active layer thickness monitoring in Northeastern Asia. Polar Geography, 1–17. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2019.1648581
- Assmann, J. J., Myers-Smith, I. H., Keryby, J. T., Cunliffe, A. M., & Daskalova, G. N. (2020). Drone data reveal heterogeneity in tundra greenness and phenology not captured by satellites. Environmental Research Letters, 15(12), 125002. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abbf7d
- Auerbach, N. A., Walker, D. A., & Bockheim, J. (1997). Landcover of the Kuparuk River Basin, Alaska. Tundra Ecosystem Analysis and Mapping Laboratory, University of Colorado, Boulder, 1:250,000. http://www.Colorado.Edu/INSTAAR/TEAML/atlas/
- Bhatt, U. S., Walker, D. A., Raynolds, M. K., Bieniek, P. A., Epstein, H. E., Comiso, J. C., Pinzon, J. E., Tucker, C. J., Steele, M., Ermold, W., & Zhang, J. (2017). Changing seasonality of panarctic tundra vegetation in relationship to climatic variables. Environmental Research Letters, 12(5), 055003. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6b0b
- Brown, J., Ferrians, O., Heginbottom, J. A., & Melnikov, E. (2002). Circum-Arctic map of permafrost and ground-ice conditions, Version 2. NSIDC: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
- Brown, J., Hinkel, K. M., & Nelson, F. E. (2000). The Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program: Research designs and initial results. Polar Geography, 24(3), 166–258. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/10889370009377698
- Brown, J., Miller, P. C., Tieszen, L. L., & Bunnell, F. L. (1980). An Arctic ecosystem: The Coastal Tundra at Barrow, Alaska. US/IBP Synthesis Series 12, Dowden, Hutchinson and Ross, Inc, 571 pp.
- Carter, L. D. (1981). A Pleistocene Sand Sea on the Alaskan Arctic coastal plain. Science, 211(4480), 381–383. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1126/science.211.4480.381
- Chaudhary, N., Miller, P. A., & Smith, B. (2017). Modelling past, present and future Peatland carbon accumulation across the Pan-Arctic region. Biogeosciences, 14(18), 4023–4044. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4023-2017
- Domine, F., Barrere, M., & Morin, S. (2016). The growth of shrubs on high Arctic tundra at Bylot Island: Impact on snow physical properties and permafrost thermal regime. Biogeosciences, 13(23), 6471–6486. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6471-2016
- Elmendorf, S. C., Henry, G. H., Hollister, R. D., Björk, R. G., Boulanger-Lapointe, N., Cooper, E. J., Cornelissen, J. H. C., Day, T. A., Dorrepaal, E., Elumeeva, T. G., Gill, M., Gould, W. A., Harte, J., Hik, D. S., Hofgaard, A., Johnson, D. R., Johnstone, J. F., Jónsdóttir, I. S., Jorgenson, J. C., … Wipf, S. (2012). Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming. Nature Climate Change, 2(6), 453–457. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1465
- Everett, K. R. (1980). Distribution and variability of soils near Atkasook, Alaska. Arctic and Alpine Research, 12(4), 433–446. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/1550493
- Fagan, J. D., & Nelson, F. E. (2017). Spatial sampling design in the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Programme. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 28(1), 42–51. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1904
- Fisher, R. A., Koven, C. D., Anderegg, W. R. L., Christoffersen, B. O., Dietze, M. C., Farrior, C. E., Holm, J. A., Hurtt, G. C., Knox, R. G., Lawrence, P. J., Lichstein, J. W., Longo, M., Matheny, A. M., Medvigy, D., Muller-Landau, H. C., Powell, T. L., Serbin, S. P., Sato, H., Shuman, J. K., … Moorcroft, P. R. (2018). Vegetation demographics in earth system models: A review of progress and priorities. Global Change Biology, 24(1), 35–54. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13910
- Forbes, B. C., Fauria, M. M., & Zetterberg, P. (2010). Russian Arctic warming and ‘greening’ are closely tracked by tundra shrub willows. Global Change Biology, 16(5), 1542–1554. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02047.x
- Frost, G. V., & Epstein, H. E. (2014). Tall shrub and tree expansion in Siberian tundra ecotones since the 1960s. Global Change Biology, 20(4), 1264–1277. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12406
- GCOS. (2003). Second report on the adequacy of the global observing systems for climate in support of the UNFCCC. GCOS Rep. 82, 85 pp. www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/gcos-82_2AR.pdf
- Hinkel, K. M., & Nelson, F. E. (2003). Spatial and temporal patterns of active layer thickness at Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites in Northern Alaska, 1995-2000. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D2). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.129/2001JD000927
- Hinzman, L. D., Kane, D. L., Gieck, R. E., & Everett, K. R. (1991). Hydrologic and thermal properties of the active layer in the Alaskan Arctic. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 19(2), 95–110. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-232X(91)90001-W
- Hovey, D. (2019, July 16). Fire service says two blazes smoking off of Kougarok road will continue to burn. KNOM Radio Mission. www.knom.org on July 14, 2020
- IPCC. (2019). Climate change and land: An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, E. Calvo Buendia, V. Masson-Delmotte, H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, P. Zhai, R. Slade, S. Connors, R. van Diemen, M. Ferrat, E. Haughey, S. Luz, S. Neogi, M. Pathak, J. Petzold, J. Portugal Pereira, P. Vyas, E. Huntley, K. Kissick, M. Belkacemi, J. Malley, (eds.)]. In press.
- Kane, D. L., Hinzman, L. D., Benson, C. S., & Everett, K. R. (1991). Hydrology of Imnavait Creek, an Arctic watershed. Holarctic Ecology, 12, 262–269. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3682733
- Kane, D. L., & Reeburgh, W. S. (Eds.). (1998). Introduction to special section: Land-Air-Ice Interactions (LAII) flux study. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 103(D22), 28913–28915. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JD200017
- Klene, A. E., Nelson, F. E., Shiklomanov, N. I., & Hinkel, K. M. (2001). The N-factor in natural landscapes: Variability of air and soil-surface temperatures, Kuparuk River Basin, Alaska, U.S.A.. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 33(2), 140–148. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2001.12003416
- Koven, C. D., Riley, W. J., & Stern, A. (2013). Analysis of permafrost thermal dynamics and response to climate change in the CMIP5 earth system models. Journal of Climate, 26(6), 1877–1900. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00228.1
- Krogh, S. A., Pomeroy, J. W., & Marsh, P. (2017). Diagnosis of the hydrology of a small Arctic Basin at the tundra-taiga transition using a physically based hydrological model. Journal of Hydrology, 550, 685–703. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.042
- Lara, M. J., Nitze, I., Grosse, G., Martin, P., & McGuire, A. D. (2018). Reduced Arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions. Scientific Reports, 8(1), 2345. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20692-8
- Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Flanner, M. G., Fletcher, C. G., Lawrence, P. J., Levis, S., Swenson Sean C., Bonan, G. B. (2012). The CCSM4 land simulation, 1850–2005: Assessment of surface climate and new capabilities. Journal of Climate, 25(7), 2240–2260. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00103.1
- Lawrence, D. M., & Swenson, S. C. (2011). Permafrost response to increasing Arctic shrub abundance depends on the relative influence of shrubs on local soil cooling versus large-scale climate warming. Environmental Research Letters, 6(4), 045504. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045504
- Little, J. D., Sandall, H., Walegur, M. T., & Nelson, F. E. (2003). Application of differential global positioning systems to monitor frost heave and thaw settlement in tundra environments. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 14(4), 349–357. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.466
- Liu, L., Schaefer, K., Zhang, T., & Wahr, J. (2012). Estimating 1992–2000 average active layer thickness on the Alaskan North Slope from remotely sensed surface subsidence. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 117(F1). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002041
- Liu, L., Zhang, T., & Wahr, J. (2010). InSAR measurements of surface deformation over permafrost on the North Slope of Alaska. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 115(F3). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JF001547
- Mackay, J. R. (1977). Probing for the Bottom of the Active Layer. Geological Survey of Canada Paper 77-1A. pp. 327–328.
- McGuire, A. D., Sturm, M., & Chapin, F. S. I. I. I. (2003). Arctic Transitions in the Land–Atmosphere System (ATLAS): Background, objectives, results, and future directions. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D2). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jD002367
- Muller, S. V., Walker, D. A., Nelson, F. E., Auerbach, N. A., Bockheim, J., Guyer, S., & Sherba, D. (1998). Accuracy assessment of a land-cover map of the Kuparuk River Basin, Alaska: Considerations for remote regions. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 68(6), 619–628. https://www.geobotany.uaf.edu/library/pubs/MullerSV1998_pers_64_619.pdf
- Myers-Smith, I. H., Forbes, B. C., Wilmking, M., Hallinger, M., Lantz, T., Blok, D., Tape, K. D., Macias-Fauria, M., Sass-Klaassen, U., Lévesque, E., Boudreau, S., Ropars, P., Hermanutz, L., Trant, A., Collier, L. S., Weijers, S., Rozema, J., Rayback, S. A., Schmidt, N. M., … Hik, D. S. (2011). Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: Dynamics, impacts and research priorities. Environmental Research Letters, 6(4), 045509. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045509
- Nelson, F. E., Hinkel, K. M., Shiklomanov, N. I., Mueller, G. R., Miller, L. L., & Walker, D. A. (1998a). Active-layer thickness in North-Central Alaska: Systematic sampling, scale, and spatial autocorrelation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 103(D22), 28963–28973. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/98JD00534
- Nelson, F. E., & Outcalt, S. I. (1987). A computational method for prediction and regionalization of permafrost. Arctic and Alpine Research, 19(3), 279–288. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/1551363
- Nelson, F. E., Outcalt, S. I., Brown, J., Hinkel, K. M., & Shiklomanov, N. I. (1998b). Spatial and temporal attributes of the active-layer thickness record, Barrow, Alaska, U.S.A. In A. G. Lewkowicz (Ed.), Proceedings of the seventh international conference on permafrost (pp. 797–802). Centre d'études nordiques, Université Laval, Publication No. 57.
- Nelson, F. E., Shiklomanov, N. I., Hinkel, K. M., & Brown, J. (2008). Decadal results from the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program. In K. M. Hinkel & D. L. Kane (Eds.), Proceedings of the ninth international conference on permafrost (pp. 1273–1280). University of Alaska Press.
- Nelson, F. E., Shiklomanov, N. I., & Mueller, G. R. (1999). Variability of active-layer thickness at multiple Spatial Scales, North-Central Alaska. U.S.A. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 31(2), 158–165. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.1999.12003295
- Nelson, F. E., Shiklomanov, N. I., Mueller, G. R., Hinkel, K. M., Walker, D. A., & Bockheim, J. G. (1997). Estimating active-layer thickness over a large region: Kuparuk River Basin, Alaska, U.S.A. Arctic and Alpine Research, 29(4), 367–378. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/1551985
- Ng, E., & Miller, P. C. (1975). Computer simulation of the snowmelt and soil thermal regime at Barrow, Alaska. Water Resources Research, 11(5), 709–715. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/WR011i005p00709
- Nyland, K. E., Nelson, F. E., Streletskiy, D. A., Shiklomanov, N. I., & Brown, J. (2020). Markovian behavior in the response of the permafrost system to climate variability on Alaska’s North Slope. Abstracts, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020. (in press).
- Nyland, K.E., Shiklomanov, N.I., Streletskiy, D.A., Klene, A.E., Nelson, F.E. (2012). Effect of vegetation on soil-surface temperatures in Northern Alaska. In K. Hinkel (Ed.) Proceedings of the tenth international conference on permafrost (Vol. 1, p. 295-300). Salekhard, Russia: The Northern Publisher.
- Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., & McMahon, T. A. (2007). Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11(5), 1633–1644. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1633-2007
- Raynolds, M. K., & Walker, D. A. (2016). Increased wetness confounds Landsat-Derived NDVI trends in the Central Alaska North Slope Region, 1985–2011. Environmental Research Letters, 11(8), 085004. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/085004
- Romanovsky, V. E., Smith, S. L., Isaksen, K., Nyland, K. E., Kholodov, A. L., Shiklomanov, N. I., Streletskiy, D. A., Farquharson, L. M., Drozdov, D. S., Makova, G. V., & Christiansen, H. H. (2020). Terrestrial permafrost [in “State of the Climate in 2018”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101, S265–S271. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0086.1
- Shiklomanov, N. E., Streletskiy, D. A., & Nelson, F. E. (2012). Northern hemisphere component of the global Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program. In K. Hinkel (Ed.), Proceedings of the tenth international conference on permafrost (Vol. 1, pp. 377–382). The Northern Publisher.
- Shiklomanov, N. I. (2001). Active-layer thickness in the Kuparuk Region, North-Central Alaska: Spatial time series analysis and stochastic modeling [Ph.D. thesis]. University of Delaware.
- Shiklomanov, N. I., & Nelson, F. E. (1999). Analytic representation of the active layer thickness field, Kuparuk River basin, Alaska. Ecological Modelling, 123(2-3), 105–125. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(99)00127-1
- Shiklomanov, N. I., & Nelson, F. E. (2003). Climate variability in the Kuparuk Region, North-Central Alaska: Optimizing spatial and temporal interpolation in a sparse observation network. Arctic, 56(2), 136–146. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic609
- Shiklomanov, N. I., Nelson, F. E., Streletskiy, D. A., Hinkel, K. M., & Brown, J. (2008, June 29–sJuly 3). The Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program: Data collection, management, and dissemination strategies. In K. M. Hinkel & D. L. Kane (Eds.), Proceedings of the ninth international conference on permafrost (Vol. 2, pp. 1647–1652). Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks.
- Shiklomanov, N. I., Streletskiy, D. A., Little, J. D., & Nelson, F. E. (2013). Isotropic thaw subsidence in undisturbed permafrost landscapes. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(24), 6356–6361. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058295
- Shur, Y., Hinkel, K. M., & Nelson, F. E. (2005). The transient layer: Implications for geocryology and climate-change science. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 16(1), 5–17. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.518
- Shur, Y. L., & Jorgenson, M. T. (2007). Patterns of permafrost formation and degradation in relation to climate and ecosystems. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 18(1), 7–19. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.582
- Strand, S. M., Christiansen, H. H., Johansson, M., Åkerman, J., & Humlum, O. (2021). Active layer thickening and controls on interannual variability in the Nordic Arctic compared to the circum-Arctic. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 32(1), 47–58. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2088
- Streletskiy, D. A., Shiklomanov, N. I., Little, J. D., Nelson, F. E., Brown, J., Nyland, K. E., & Klene, A. E. (2017). Thaw subsidence in undisturbed tundra landscapes, Barrow, Alaska, 1962–2015. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 28(3), 566–572. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1918
- Streletskiy, D. A., Shiklomanov, N. I., Nelson, F. E., & Klene, A. E. (2008, June 29–July 3). Thirteen years of observations at Alaskan CALM sites: Long-term active layer and ground surface temperature trends. In K. M. Hinkel & D. L. Kane (Eds.), Proceedings of the ninth international conference on permafrost (Vol. 2, pp. 1727–1732). Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks.
- Sturm, M., Racine, C., & Tape, K. (2001). Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic. Nature, 411(6837), 546–547. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1038/35079180
- Tape, K. E. N., Sturm, M., & Racine, C. (2006). The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan-Arctic. Global Change Biology, 12(4), 686–702. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01128.x
- Vasiliev, A. A., Drozdov, D. S., Gravis, A. G., Malkova, G. V., Nyland, K. E., & Streletskiy, D. A. (2020). Permafrost degradation in the Western Russian Arctic. Environmental Research Letters, 15(4), 045001. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6f12
- Wahrhaftig, C. (1965). Physiographic divisions of Alaska. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper, 482, 52 pp.
- Walker, D. A., Binnian, E., Evans, B. M., Lederer, N. D., Nordstrand, E., & Webber, P. J. (1989). Terrain, vegetation, and landscape evolution of the R4D research site, Brooks Range Foothills, Alaska. Holarctic Ecology, 12(3), 238–261. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3682732
- Walker, D. A., Bockheim, J. G., Chapin, F. S. I. I. I., Eugster, W., King, J. Y., McFadden, J. P., Michaelson, G. J., Nelson, F. E., Oechel, W. C., Ping, C. L., Reeburgh, W. S., Regli, S., Shiklomanov, N. I., & Vourlitis, G. L. (1998). Energy and trace-gas fluxes across a soil pH boundary in the Arctic. Nature, 394(6692), 469–472. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1038/28839
- Wania, R., Ross, I., & Prentice, I. C. (2009). Integrating peatlands and permafrost into a dynamic global vegetation model: 2. Evaluation and sensitivity of vegetation and carbon cycle processes. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 23(GB3015), 15. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003412
- Weller, G., Chapin, F. S., Everett, K. R., Hobbie, J. E., Kane, D., Oechel, W. C., Ping, C. L., Reeburgh, W. S., Walker, D., & Walsh, J. (1995). The Arctic Flux Study: A regional view of trace gas release. Journal of Biogeography, 22(2/3), 365–374. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2845932
- Xia, J., McGuire, A. D., Lawrence, D., Burke, E., Chen, G., Chen, X., Delire, C., Koven, C., MacDougall, A., Peng, S., Rinke, A., Saito, K., Zhang, W., Alkama, R., Bohn, T. J., Ciais, P., Decharme, B., Gouttevin, I., Hajima, T., … Luo, Y. (2017). Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 122(2), 430–446. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384
- Zamin, T. J., Bret-Harte, M. S., & Grogan, P. (2014). Evergreen shrubs dominate responses to experimental summer warming and fertilization in Canadian Mesic low Arctic tundra. Journal of Ecology, 102(3), 749–766. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12237
- Zhang, T., Barry, R. G., Knowles, K., Heginbottom, J. A., & Brown, J. (2008). Statistics and characteristics of permafrost and ground-ice distribution in the Northern Hemisphere. Polar Geography, 31(1-2), 47–68. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/10889370802175895