Accomplishments and Compromises in Prediction Research for World Records and Best Performances in Track and Field and Swimming

RECOMMENDED SOURCES NOT CITED

• Akaike , H. 1973 . Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle , Budapest , Hungary : Proceeding of the Second International Symposium on Information Theory . ISIT
   Google Scholar
• Akaike , H. 1987 . Factor analysis and AIC . Psychometrika , 52 : 317 – 332 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alexander , R. 1988 . Why mammals gallop . American Zoology , 28 : 237 – 245 .
   Google Scholar
• Alexander , R. M. 2003 . Principles of animal locomotion , Princeton , NJ : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Arellano , R. , Pardillo , S. and Gavilán , A. 2003 . “ Usefulness of the Strouhal number in evaluating human underwater undulatory swimming ” . In Biomechanics and medicine in swimming IX , Edited by: Chatard , J. C. 33 – 38 . Saint-Étienne , , France : Publications de l'Université de Saint-Étienne .
   Google Scholar
• Association of Track and Field Statisticians . 1951–2006 . ATFS Annual , Worcester , , England : SportsBooks .
   Google Scholar
• Athletics Australia (2004). Nomination criteria for 2004 Olympic Games Athens. http://www.athletics.org.au/events/selection/dp_details.cfm?ObjectID=108 (http://www.athletics.org.au/events/selection/dp_details.cfm?ObjectID=108)
   Google Scholar
• Badler , N. I. , Phillips , C. B. and Webber , B. L. 1993 . Simulating humans , New York , NY : Oxford University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Bam , J. T. , Noakes , D. , Juritz , J. and Steven , S. C. 1997 . Could women outrun men in ultramarathon races? . Medicine and Science in Sports Exercise , 29 : 244 – 247 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Banister , E. and Calvert , T. 1980 . Planning for future performance: Implications for long term training . Canadian Journal of Applied Sports Science , 5 : 170 – 176 .
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Berta , A. , Ray , C.E. and Wyss , A.R. 1989 . Skeleton of the oldest known pinniped Enialiarctos mealsi . Science , 244 : 60 – 62 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Biewener , A. A. 1989 . Support in mammals: Limb posture and muscle mechanics . Science , 245 : 45 – 48 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Biewener , A. A. 1990 . Biomechanics of mammalian terrestrial locomotion . Science , 250 : 1097 – 1103 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Biewener , A. A. 2003 . Animal locomotion , London , , England : Oxford University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Blanco , R. E. , Gambini , R. and Fariña , R. A. 2003 . Mechanical model for theoretical determination of maximum running speed in mammals . Journal of Theoretical Biology , 222 : 117 – 125 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boos , D. 1984 . Using extreme value theory to estimate large percentiles . Technometrics , 26 : 33 – 39 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bowers , B. 2000 . Extreme risks . Best's Review , 100 : 28 – 37 .
   Google Scholar
• Box , G. E. P. and Jenkins , G. M. 1976 . Time series analysis: Forecasting and control , San Francisco , CA : Holden–Day .
   Google Scholar
• Brown , B. H. 1946 . The scoring of athletic contests . The Scientific Monthly , 62 : 233 – 237 .
   Google Scholar
• Buckland , S. T. , Burnham , K. P. and Augustin , N. H. 1997 . Model selection: An integral part of inference . Biometrics , 53 : 603 – 618 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Burnham , K. and Anderson , D. 2002 . Model selection and multimodel inference. A practical information-theoretic approach , New York , NY : Springer .
   Google Scholar
• Catteau , R. and Garoff , G. 1968 . L'enseignement de la natation , Paris , , France : Vigot .
   Google Scholar
• Catteau , R. 2008 . La natation de demain , Biarritz , , France : Atlantica .
   Google Scholar
• Cham , T. J. and Rehg , J. M. 1999 . A multiple hypothesis approach to figure tracking . Proceedings of IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition , 1 : 239 – 245 .
   Google Scholar
• Chang , C-L. , Tsai , C-H. and Chen , L. 2003 . Applying grey relational analysis to the decathlon evaluation model . International Journal of the Computer, the Internet and Management , 11 : 54 – 62 .
   Google Scholar
• Cho , A. 2004 . Engineering peak performance . Science , 305 : 643 – 644 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Claeskens , G. and Hjort , N. L. 2003 . The focused information criterion [with discussion] . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 98 : 900 – 916 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cohen , J. 1995 . How many people can the earth support? , New York , NY : Norton .
   Google Scholar
• Coles , S. 2001 . An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values , London , , England : Springer-Verlag .
   Google Scholar
• Collard , L. 2009 . La cinquième nage. Natation & théorie de l'évolution , Biarritz , , France : Atlantica .
   Google Scholar
• Cox , T. F. and Dunn , R. T. 2002 . An analysis of decathlon data . The Statistician , 51 : 179 – 187 .
   Google Scholar
• Cunningham , E. P. , Dooley , J. J. , Splan , R. K. and Bradley , D. G. 2001 . Microsatellite diversity, pedigree relatedness and the contributions of founder lineages to thoroughbred horses . Animal Genet , 32 : 360 – 364 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Darlington , R. B. 1990 . Regression and linear models , New York , NY : McGraw-Hill .
   Google Scholar
• Dawkins , R. 1989 . The selfish gene , London , , England : Oxford University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Dawkins , B. P. , Andreae , P. M. and O'Connor , P. M. 1994 . Analysis of Olympic hepathlon data . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 89 : 1100 – 1106 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Deakin , B. 1961 . Mathematics of athletic performance . Matrix, 4. ,
   Google Scholar
• Deakin , B. 1967 . Estimating bounds on athletic performance . The Mathematical Gazette , 51 : 100 – 103 .
   Google Scholar
• Denny , M. W. and Gaines , S. 2000 . Chance in biology , Princeton , NJ : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Deutscher , J. , Blake , A. and Reid , I. 2000 . Articulated body motion capture by annealed particle filtering . Proceedings of IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition , 2 : 1144 – 1149 .
   Google Scholar
• Deutscher , J. , Davison , A. and Reid , I. 2001 . Automatic partitioning of high dimensional search spaces associated with articulated body motion capture . Proceedings of IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition , 2 : 669 – 676 .
   Google Scholar
• Drape, J. (2008, May 11). Breeding for speed, ignoring durability. New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/sports/othersports/11breeding.html?pagewanted=all (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/sports/othersports/11breeding.html?pagewanted=all)
   Google Scholar
• Drummond , T. and Cipolla , R. 2001 . Real-time tracking of highly articulated structures in the presence of noisy measurements . Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Computer Vision , 2 : 315 – 320 .
   Google Scholar
• Edwards , D. and Hopkins , W. 1979 . Targets for the future . Modern Athlete and Coach , 17 : 34 – 36 .
   Google Scholar
• Efron , B. and Tibshirani , R. J. 1993 . An introduction to the bootstrap , Boca Raton , FL : CRC Press .
   Google Scholar
• Farley , C. T. 1997 . Maximum speed and mechanical power output in lizards . Journal of Experimental Biology , 200 : 2189 – 2195 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Feller , W. 1968 . An introduction to probability theory and its applications , 3rd , New York , NY : John Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• Fish , F. E. 1993 . Power output and propulsive efficiency of swimming bottlenose dolphins . Journal of Experimental Biology , 185 : 179 – 193 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fish , F. E. 1996 . Transitions from drag-based to lift-based propulsion in mammalian swimming . American Zoologist , 36 : 628 – 641 .
   Google Scholar
• Foster , F. G. and Stuart , A. 1954 . Distribution-free tests in time-series based on the breaking of records . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, XVI , 1 : 1 – 22 .
   Google Scholar
• Gaines , S. and Denny , M. W. 1993 . The largest, smallest, highest, lowest, longest and shortest: Extremes in ecology . Ecology , 74 : 1677 – 1692 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Glick , N. 1978 . Breaking records and breaking boards . The American Mathematical Monthly , 85 : 2 – 26 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gordon , D. 2000 . Extreme sports: How big are they going to get? . Newsweek , 134 : 79 – 80 .
   Google Scholar
• Hansen , B. E. 2007 . Least squares model averaging . Econometrica , 75 : 1175 – 1189 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Heazlewood , I. and Lackey , G. 1996 . The use of mathematical models to predict elite athletic performance at the Olympic Games , Queensland , , Australia : Paper presented at the Third Conference on Mathematics and Computers in Sport .
   Google Scholar
• Hill , E. W. , Bradley , D. G. , Al-Barody , M. , Ertugrul , O. , Splan , R. K. , Zakharov , I. and Cunningham , E. P. 2002 . History and integrity of the thoroughbred dam lines revealed in equine mtDNA variation . Animal Genet , 33 : 287 – 294 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hjort , L. and Claeskens , G. 2003 . Frequentist model average estimators . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 98 : 879 – 945 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hoeting , J. , Madigan , D. , Raftery , E. and Volinsky , C. 1999 . Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial . Statistical Science , 14 : 382 – 417 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holden , C. 2004 . An everlasting gender gap? . Science , 305 : 639 – 640 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hopkins, W. (2000). Limits to performance, from the Sportscience http://www.sportsci.org/jour/0002/inbrief.html#limits (http://www.sportsci.org/jour/0002/inbrief.html#limits)
   Google Scholar
• Hurvich , C. M. and Tsai , C. L. 1989 . Regression and time series model selection in small samples . Biometrika , 76 : 297 – 307 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hutchison , J. R. and Garcia , M. 2002 . Tyrannosaurus was not a fast runner . Nature , 415 : 1018 – 1021 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• International Olympic Committee . 1999 . Doping: An IOC White Paper , Lausanne , , Switzerland : International Olympic Committee .
   Google Scholar
• Iriarté-Diaz , J. 2002 . Differential scaling of locomotor performance in small and large terrestrial animals . Journal of Experimental Biology , 205 : 2897 – 2908 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Isard , M. A. and Blake , A. 1996 . Visual tracking by stochastic propagation of conditional density , Cambridge , , England : Paper presented in 4th European Conference on Computer Vision . Cambridge
   Google Scholar
• Isard , M.A. and Blake , A. 1998 . A mixed-state Condensation tracker with automatic model switching . Proceedings of 6th International Conference on Computer Vision , : 107 – 112 .
   Google Scholar
• Jennrich , R. I. and Sampson , P. F. 1968 . Application of stepwise regression to nonlinear least squares . Technometrics , 10 : 63 – 67 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jokl , E. and Jokl , P. 1976a . Running and swimming world records . Olympic Review , 107/108 : 536 – 543 .
   Google Scholar
• Jokl , E. and Jokl , P. 1976b . Running and swimming world records . British Journal of Sports Medicine , 10 : 203 – 208 .
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Jokl , E. and Jokl , P. 1977 . Running and swimming world records . Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness , 17 : 213 – 229 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jones , J. H. and Lindstedt , S. L. 1993 . Limits to maximal performance . Annual Review Physiology , 55 : 547 – 569 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kakadiaris , I. and Metaxas , D. 1996 . Model-based estimation of 3D human motion with occlusion based on active multi-viewpoint selection . Proceedings of IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition , : 81 – 87 .
   Google Scholar
• Katz , R. W. , Brush , G. S. and Parlange , M. B. 2005 . Statistics of extremes: Modeling ecological disturbances . Ecology , 86 : 1124 – 1134 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Keller , J. B. 1973 . A theory of competitive running . Physics Today , 26 : 43 – 47 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Keller , J. B. 1974 . Optimal velocity in a race . The American Mathematical Monthly , 81 : 474 – 480 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kök , N. , Magnusson , R. , Potts , D. H. and Quercetani , R. L. 1995 . Track and field performances through the years , Vol. 3 , 1945 – 1950 . Trowbridge , , England : Association of Track and Field Statisticians .
   Google Scholar
• Kök , N. , Magnusson , R. , Potts , D. H. and Quercetani , R. L. 1999 . Track and field performances through the years, 4 , 1921 – 1928 . Trowbridge , , England : Association of Track and Field Statisticians .
   Google Scholar
• Koming , J. , Seiler , S. and Foster , C. 2005 . Projected sprint performances are biologically unreasonable . Research Quarterly for Exercise Science and Sport , 76 ( Suppl ) : A12
   Google Scholar
• Krieger , K. 2004 . Do pool sharks swim faster? . Science , 305 : 366 – 367 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lackey , G. and Heazlewood , I. 1998 . “ The use of mathematical models to predict elite swimming performance ” . In Proceedings of Fourth Conference on Mathematics and Computers in Sport: 9–12 July , Edited by: deMestre , N. and Kumar , K . 79 – 110 . Queensland , , Australia : Bond University .
   Google Scholar
• Lawson , G. 1997 . World Record Breakers in Track and Field Athletics , Champaign , IL : Human Kinetics .
   Google Scholar
• Lim , A. , Edwards , A. , Ignatz , R. , Birken , B. and Byrnes , W. 2005 . Predicting time trial performance using field measures of the bicycle-rider aerodynamic drag . Research Quarterly for Exercise Science and Sport , 76 ( Suppl ) : A12
   Google Scholar
• Little , R. and Rubin , D. 2002 . Statistical analysis with missing data , New York , NY : Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• Liu , Y. 2005 . Optimization research in sports: What's it all about, and who cares? . Research Quarterly for Exercise Science and Sport , 76 ( Suppl ) : A12
   Google Scholar
• Liu , Y. , Chen , L. , Shin , S. and Wang , D. 2005 . Assessing the best track and field performances from east to west: Is sky the limit? . Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise , 37 ( Suppl ) : S408 – S409 .
   Google Scholar
• MacCormick , J. and Isard , M. A. 2000 . Partitioned sampling, articulated objects and interface-quality hand tracking . Proceedings of European Conference on Computer Vision , 2 : 3 – 19 .
   Google Scholar
• Maglischo , E. W. 2003 . Swimming fastest , Champaign , IL : Human Kinetics .
   Google Scholar
• Magnusson , R. , Potts , D. H. and Quercetani , R. L. 1991 . Track and field performances through the years , Vol. 2 , 1937 – 1944 . Trowbridge , , England : Association of Track and Field Statisticians .
   Google Scholar
• Maillard , D. and Pelayo , P. 2000 . Nageur, acteur , Paris , , France : Editions Revue EP.S .
   Google Scholar
• Mauss , M. 1934 . Les techniques du corps . Journal de Psychologie, XXXII , 3 & 4 : 366 – 383 .
   Google Scholar
• Megede , E. Z. and Hymans , R. 1991 . Progression of Best Performances and Official IAAF World Records , Stade Louis II , , Monaco : International Athletic Foundation .
   Google Scholar
• Moeslund , T. B. and Granum , E. 2001 . A survey of computer vision-based human motion capture . Computer Vision and Image Understanding , 18 : 231 – 268 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nevill , A. M.. and Whyte , G. 2005 . Are there limits to running world records? . Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise. , 37 : 1785 – 1788 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pansu , C. 2009 . Bébés nageurs. Adaptation du jeune enfant au milieu aquatique , Paris , , France : Amphora .
   Google Scholar
• Parlebas , P. and Dugas , E. 1998 . Transfert d'apprentissage et domaines d'action motrice . E.P&S , 270 : 41 – 47 .
   Google Scholar
• Pelayo , P. , Maillard , D. , Rozier , D. and Chollet , D. 1999 . Natation au collège et au lycée , Paris , , France : EP&S .
   Google Scholar
• Pentland , A. and Horowitz , B. 1991 . Recovery of nonrigid motion and structure . IEEE Transactions on PAMI , 13 : 730 – 742 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pheasant , S. 1996 . Bodyspace: Anthropometry, ergonomics and the design of work , London , , England : Taylor & Francis .
   Google Scholar
• Prendergast , K. 1990 . What do world running records tell us? . Modern Athlete and Coach , 28 : 33 – 36 .
   Google Scholar
• Pritchard , W. G. and Pritchard , J. K. 1994 . Mathematical models of running . American Science , 82 : 546 – 553 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Quercetani , R. L. and Magnusson , R. 1988 . Track and field performances through the years , Vol. 1 , 1929 – 1936 . Trowbridge , , England : Association of Track and Field Statisticians .
   Google Scholar
• Quick , R. 2005 . Winning Walls: Underwater swimming – the fifth competitive stroke , Ames , IW : Championship Productions .
   Google Scholar
• R Development Core Team. (2008). R: A language and environment for statistical computingVienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing http://www.R-project.org (http://www.R-project.org)
   Google Scholar
• Ratkowsky , D. A. 1983 . Nonlinear regression modeling , New York , NY : Marcel Dekker .
   Google Scholar
• Rehg , J. M. and Kanade , T. 1995 . Proceedings of Fifth International Conference on Computer Visio 612 – 617 .
   Google Scholar
• Rohr , J-J. and Fish , F-E. 2004 . Strouhal numbers and optimization of swimming by odontocete cetaceans . Journal of Experimental Biology , 207 : 1633 – 642 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rothstein , A. 1985 . Research design and statistics for physical education , Englewood Cliffs , NJ : Prentice Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Schomaker , M. , Wan , A.T.K. and Heumann , C. 2010 . Frequentist model averaging with missing observations . Computational Statistics & Data Analysis , 54 : 3336 – 3347 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Seiler , S. , Koning , J. and Foster , C. 2005 . Is the gender gap in running performance still narrowing? . Research Quarterly for Exercise Science and Sport , 76 ( Suppl ) : A12
   Google Scholar
• Senator , M. 1982 . Extending the theory of dash running . Journal of Biomechanical Engineering , 104 : 209 – 213 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sfakiotakis , M. , Lane , D. M. and Davies , B. 1999 . Review of fish swimming modes for aquatic locomotion. IEEE . Journal Ocean Engineering , 24 : 237 – 252 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sigaut , F. 2002 . La formule de Mauss . Techniques & Culture , 40 : 153 – 168 .
   Google Scholar
• Sparling , P. B. , O'Donnell , E. M. and Snow , T. K. 1998 . The gender difference in distance running performance has plateaued: An analysis of world rankings from 1980 to 1996 . Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise , 30 : 1725 – 1729 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stone , M. 1974 . Cross-validatory choice and assessment of statistical predictions . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , B36 : 111 – 147 .
   Google Scholar
• Sullivan , J. , Blake , A. , Isard , M. and MacCormick , J. 1999 . Object localization by Bayesian correlation . Proceedings of 7th International Conference on Computer Vision , 2 : 1068 – 1075 .
   Google Scholar
• Tatem , A. J. , Guerra , C. A. , Atkinson , P. M. and Hay , S. I. 2004 . Momentous sprint at the 2156 Olympics? . Nature , 432 : 525
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thewissen , J. G. 1998 . The emergence of whales: Evolutionary patterns in the origin of Cetacea , New York , NY : Plenum Press .
   Google Scholar
• Thewissen , J. G. , Cooper , L. N. , Clementz , M. T. , Bajpai , S. and Tiwari , B. N. 2007 . Whales originated from aquatic artiodactyls in the Eocene epoch of India . Nature , 450 : 1190
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tibshirani , R. 1997 . Who is the fastest man in the world? . American Statistician. , 51 : 106 – 111 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Van Eersel , P. 1993 . Le cinquième rêve. Le dauphin, l'homme, l'évolution , Paris , , France : Grasset .
   Google Scholar
• Von. Loebbecke , A. , Mittal , R. , Fish , F. and Mark , R. 2009 . Propulsive efficiency of the underwater dolphin kick in humans . Journal of Biomechanical Engineering , 131 054504-1-054504-4
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wallechinsky , D. 1996 . The complete book of the Olympics 1996 edition , London , , England : Aurum Press .
   Google Scholar
• Wang , H. , Zhang , X. and Zou , G. 2009 . Frequentist model averaging: A review . Journal of Systems Science and Complexity , 22 : 732 – 748 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weismuller , J. 1931 . Swimming the crawl , Paris , , France : Trémois .
   Google Scholar
• Weissman , I. 1978 . Estimation of parameters and large quantiles based on the k largest observations . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 73 : 812 – 815 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weyand , P. G. , Cureton , K. , Conley , D. S. , Sloniger , M. A. and Liu , Y. 1994 . Peak oxygen deficit predicts sprint and middle-distance performance . Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise , 26 : 1174 – 1180 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weyand , P. G. and Davis , J. A. 2005 . Running performance has a structural basis . Journal of Experimental Biology , 208 : 2625 – 2631 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weyand , P. G. , Lee , C. S. , Martinez-Ruiz , R. , Bundle , M. W. , Bellizzi , M. J. and Wright , S. 1999 . High-speed running performance is largely unaffected by hypoxic reductions in aerobic power . Journal of Applied Physiology , 68 : 2059 – 2064 .
   Google Scholar
• Weyand , P. G. , Sternlight , D. B. , Bellizzi , M. J. and Wright , S. 2000 . Faster top running speeds are achieved with greater ground forces not more rapid leg movements . Journal of Applied Physiology , 89 : 1991 – 1999 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Woolf , A. , Ansley , L. and Bidgood , P. 2007 . Grouping of decathlon disciplines . Journal of Quantitative Analysis of Sports , 3 : A5
   Google Scholar
• Wren , C. , Azarbayejani , A. , Darrell , T. and Pentland , A. 1997 . Pfinder: Real-time tracking of the human body . IEEE Transactions on PAMI , 19 : 780 – 785 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yang , M. C. K. 1975 . On the distribution of the inter-record times in an increasing population . Journal of Applied Probability , 12 : 148 – 154 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar