The Economic Impact of Extreme Cyber Risk Scenarios

REFERENCES

• Ali, J., and J. R. Santos. 2014. Modeling the ripple effects of IT-based incidents on interdependent economic systems. Systems Engineering 18(2): 146–61. doi:10.1002/sys.21293
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bounfour, A., R. Dieye, N. Kammoun, and A. Ozaygen. 2018. Macro estimates of intangibles cyber-risks. https://www.hermeneut.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/HERMENEUT-D3.2-Macro-estimates-of-intangibles-cyber-risks.pdf (accessed April 20, 2021).
   Google Scholar
• Cherdantseva, Y., P. Burnap, A. Blyth, P. Eden, K. Jones, H. Soulsby, and K. Stoddart. 2016. A review of cyber security risk assessment methods for SCADA systems. Computers & Security 56: 1–27. doi:10.1016/j.cose.2015.09.009
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chigada, J., and R. Madzinga. 2021. Cyberattacks and threats during COVID-19: A systematic literature review. South African Journal of Information Management 23(1): 1–11.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cimellaro, G. P., A. M. Reinhorn, and M. Bruneau. 2010. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience. Engineering Structures 32(11): 3639–49. doi:10.1016/j.engstruct.2010.08.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coburn, A., E. Leverett, and G. Woo. 2019. Solving cyber risk. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
   Google Scholar
• Cole, C. R., and S. G. Fier. 2020. An empirical analysis of insurer participation in the U.S. cyber insurance market. North American Actuarial Journal. doi:10.1080/10920277.2020.1733615
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dejung, S. 2017. Economic impact of cyber accumulation scenarios. Swiss Insurance Association Cyber Working Group.
   Google Scholar
• Dreyer, P., T. Jones, K. Klima, J. Oberholtzer, A. Strong, J. Welburn, and Z. Winkelman. 2018. Estimating the global cost of cyber risk: methodology and examples. doi:10.7249/rr2299https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2299.html (accessed April 20, 2021).
   Google Scholar
• Eckert, C., and N. Gatzert. 2017. Modeling operational risk incorporating reputation risk: An integrated analysis for financial firms. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 72: 122–37. doi:10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.11.005
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Egan, R., S. Cartagena, R. Mohamed, V. Gosrani, J. Grewal, M. Acharyya, et al. 2019. Cyber operational risk scenarios for insurance companies. British Actuarial Journal 24(6): 1–34. doi:10.1017/S1357321718000284
   Google Scholar
• Eling, M., and W. Schnell. 2020. Capital requirements for cyber risk and cyber risk insurance. North American Actuarial Journal 24(3): 370–92. doi:10.1080/10920277.2019.1641416
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fahrenwaldt, M. A., S. Weber, and K. Weske. 2018. Pricing of cyber insurance contracts in a network model. ASTIN Bulletin 48(3): 1175–218. doi:10.1017/asb.2018.23
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Falco, G., M. Eling, D. Jablanski, M. Weber, V. Miller, L. A. Gordon, S. S. Wang, J. Schmit, R. Thomas, M. Elvedi, T. Maillart, E. Donavan, S. Dejung, E. Durand, F. Nutter, U. Scheffer, G. Arazi, G. Ohana, and H. Lin. 2019. Cyber risk research impeded by disciplinary barriers. Science 366(6469): 1066–69. doi:10.1126/science.aaz4795
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Falco, G., A. Viswanathan, C. Caldera, and H. Shrobe. 2018. A master attack methodology for an AI-based automated attack planner for smart cities. IEEE Access 6: 48360–73. doi:10.1109/ACCESS.2018.2867556
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Farkas, S., O. Lopez, and M. Thomas. 2021. Cyber claim analysis using Generalized Pareto regression trees with applications to insurance. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 98: 92–105. doi:10.1016/j.insmatheco.2021.02.009
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haimes, Y. Y., and P. Jiang. 2001. Leontief-based model of risk in complex interconnected infrastructures. Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7(1): 1–12. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2001)7:1(1)
   Google Scholar
• Haimes, Y. Y., B. M. Horowitz, J. H. Lambert, J. R. Santos, C. Lian, and K. G. Crowther. 2005. Inoperability input-output model for interdependent infrastructure sectors. Journal of Infrastructure Systems 11(2): 67–79. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2005)11:2(67)
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holling, C. S. 1973. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 4(1): 1–23. doi:10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245
   Google Scholar
• Howard, J. D. 1997. An analysis of security incidents on the Internet. PhD thesis, Carnegie Mellon University. https://resources.sei.cmu.edu/library/asset-view.cfm?assetid=52454 (accessed April 20, 2021).
   Google Scholar
• Howard, J. D. 2015. Using a common language for computer security incident information. In Computer Security Handbook, ed. S. Bosworth, M. E. Kabay, and E. Whyne, 8.1–8.21. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons. doi:10.1002/9781118851678.ch8
   Google Scholar
• Jevtić, P., and N. Lanchier. 2020. Dynamic structural percolation model of loss distribution for cyber risk of small and medium-sized enterprises for tree-based LAN topology. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 91: 209–23. doi:10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.02.005
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jung, J., J. R. Santos, and Y. Y. Haimes. 2009. International trade inoperability input-output model (IT-IIM): theory and application. Risk Analysis 29(1): 137–54. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01126.x
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kamiya, S., J. K. Kang, J. Kim, A. Milidonis, and R. M. Stulz. 2021. Risk management, firm reputation, and the impact of successful cyberattacks on target firms. Journal of Financial Economics 139(3): 719–49. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.05.019
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kashyap, A. K., and A. Wetherilt. 2019. Some principles for regulating cyber risk. AEA Papers and Proceedings 109: 482–87. doi:10.1257/pandp.20191058
   Google Scholar
• Kelly, S., E. Leverett, E. J. Oughton, J. Copic, S. Thacker, R. Pant, L. Pryor, G. Kassara, T. Evan, S. J. Ruffle, M. Tuveson, A. W. Coburn, D. Ralph, and J. W. Halls. 2016. Integrated infrastructure: Cyber resiliency in society: Mapping the consequences of an interconnected digital economy. https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/risk/downloads/crs-integrated-infrastructure-cyber-resiliency-in-society.pdf (accessed April 20, 2021).
   Google Scholar
• Lagazio, M., N. Sherif, and M. Cushman. 2014. A multi-level approach to understanding the impact of cyber crime on the financial sector. Computers & Security 45: 58–74. doi:10.1016/j.cose.2014.05.006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lallie, H. S., L. A. Shepherd, J. R. Nurse, A. Erola, G. Epiphaniou, C. Maple, and X. Bellekens. 2021. Cyber security in the age of Covid-19: A timeline and analysis of cyber-crime and cyber-attacks during the pandemic. Computers & Security 105: 102248. doi:10.1016/j.cose.2021.102248
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leontief, W. W. 1951. The structure of the American economy, 1919–1939: An empirical application of equilibrium analysis. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Leontief, W. W. 1966. Input-output economics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Leontief, W. W. 1974. Structure of the world economy: Outline of a simple input-output formulation. American Economic Review 64(6): 823–34.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lewis, J. A. 2018. Economic impact of cybercrime—No slowing down. Santa Clara, CA: McAfee. https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/economic-impact-cybercrime.pdf (accessed April 20, 2021).
   Google Scholar
• Li, Y., and Q. Liu. 2021. A comprehensive review study of cyber-attacks and cyber security; Emerging trends and recent developments. Energy Reports 7: 8176–86. doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2021.08.126
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lian, C., and Y. Y. Haimes. 2006. Managing the risk of terrorism to interdependent infrastructure systems through the dynamic inoperability input-output model. Systems Engineering 9(3): 241–58. doi:10.1002/sys.20051
   Google Scholar
• Lian, C., J. R. Santos, and Y. Y. Haimes. 2007. Extreme risk analysis of interdependent economic and infrastructure sectors. Risk Analysis 27(4): 1053–64. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00943.x
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Miller, R. E., and P. D. Blair. 2009. Input-output analysis: Foundations and extensions. Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Munich Re. 2016. Loss events worldwide 1980–2015. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Loss_events_worldwide_1980-2015.pdf (accessed April 20, 2021).
   Google Scholar
• Niknejad, A., and D. Petrovic. 2016. A fuzzy dynamic inoperability input-output model for strategic risk management in global production networks. International Journal of Production Economics 179: 44–58. doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2016.05.017
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nikolakopoulos, T., E. Darra, and D. Tofan. 2016. The cost of incidents affecting CIIs: Systematic review of studies concerning the economic impact of cyber-security incidents on critical information infrastructures (CII). Heraklion: ENISA.
   Google Scholar
• Organization for Ecoomic Cooperation and Development. 2018. Input-output tables 2018 edition. https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=IOTSI4_2018 (accessed April 20, 2021).
   Google Scholar
• Panzieri, S., and R. Setola. 2008. Failures propagation in critical interdependent infrastructures. International Journal of Modelling, Identification and Control 3(1): 69–78. doi:10.1504/IJMIC.2008.018186
   Google Scholar
• Parenty, T. J., and J. J. Domet. 2019. Sizing up your cyberrisks. Harvard Business Review 97(6): 102–10.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Resurreccion, J., and J. R. Santos. 2012. Multiobjective prioritization methodology and decision support system for evaluating inventory enhancement strategies for disrupted interdependent sectors. Risk Analysis 32(10): 1673–92. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01779.x
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Risk Management Solutions, Inc. 2016. Managing cyber insurance accumulation risk. https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/risk/downloads/crs-rms-managing-cyber-insurance-accumulation-risk.pdf (accessed April 20, 2021).
   Google Scholar
• Rose, A., and S.-Y. Liao. 2005. Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters: A computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions. Journal of Regional Science 45(1): 75–112. doi:10.1111/j.0022-4146.2005.00365.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ruffle, S. J., G. Bowman, F. Caccioli, A. W. Coburn, S. Kelly, B. Leslie, and D. Ralph. 2014. Stress test scenario: Sybil logic bomb cyber catastrophe. Cambridge Risk Framework Series. Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge.
   Google Scholar
• Santos, J. R. 2006. Inoperability input-output modeling of disruptions to interdependent economic systems. Systems Engineering 9(1): 20–34. doi:10.1002/sys.20040
   Google Scholar
• Smith, Z. M., E. Lostri, and J. A. Lewis. 2021. The hidden costs of cybercrime. https://www.csis.org/analysis/hidden-costs-cybercrime.
   Google Scholar
• Sun, H., M. Xu, and P. Zhao. 2020. Modeling malicious hacking data breach risks. North American Actuarial Journal. doi:10.1080/10920277.2020.1752255
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Trautman, L. J., and P. Ormerod. 2018. Wannacry, ransomware, and the emerging threat to corporations. Tennessee Law Review 86: 503–56.
   Google Scholar
• Weintraub, R., and J. Borenstein. 2017. 11 Things the health care sector must do to improve cybersecurity. Harvard Business Review Online. https://hbr.org/2017/06/11-things-the-health-care-sector-must-do-to-improve-cybersecurity (accessed April 20, 2021)
   Google Scholar
• World Bank. 2019. GDP (current US$). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.cd (accessed April 20, 2021).
   Google Scholar
• World Economic Forum. 2014. Global risks 2014 ninth edition. http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2014/?doing_wp_cron=1548774994.0724980831146240234375 (accessed April 20, 2021).
   Google Scholar
• Xu, M., and L. Hua. 2019. Cybersecurity insurance: Modeling and pricing. North American Actuarial Journal 23(2): 220–49. doi:10.1080/10920277.2019.1566076
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar