China’s “Political-Economy Trilemma”: (How) Can it be Solved?

References

• Acemoglu, D. (2014). Does democracy boost economic growth? World Economic Forum.
   Google Scholar
• Acemoglu, D., Naidu, S., Restrepo, P., & Robinson, J. A. (2019). Democracy does cause growth. Journal of Political Economy, 127(1), 47–100. https://doi.org/10.1086/700936
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Aghion, P., Alesina, A., & Trebbi, F. (2008). Democracy, Technology and Growth. In E. Helpmann (Ed.), Institutions and economic performance (pp. 511–543). Havard University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Aizenman, J., Chinn, M. D., & Ito, H. (2013). The ‘impossible trinity’ hypothesis in an era of global imbalances: measurement and testing. Review of International Economics, 21(3), 447–458. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12047
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Aizenman, J., & Ito, H. (2020). The political-economy trilemma. NBER WP 26905. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
   Google Scholar
• Alesina, A. F., Seror, M., Yang, D. Y., You, Y., & Zeng, W. (2020). Persistence through revolutions. NBER WP 27053. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
   Google Scholar
• Aziz, J. (2006). Rebalancing China’s Economy: What does growth theory tell us? IMF working paper WP/06/291. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451865516.001
   Google Scholar
• Aziz, J., & Cui, L. (2007). Explaining China’s low consumption: The neglected role of household income. IMF working paper WP/07/181. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451867459.001
   Google Scholar
• Barro, R. J. (1996). Democracy and growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(1), 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00163340
   Google Scholar
• Blanchard, O., & Giavazzi, F. (2005). Rebalancing growth in China: A three-handed approach. CEPR Discussion Paper 5403. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research.
   Google Scholar
• Boughton, J. M. (2003). On the origins of the Mundell-Fleming model. IMF Staff Papers, 50(1), 1–9.
   Google Scholar
• Bozkurt, E., Altiner, A., & Toktas, Y. (2018). Democracy and Economic growth: evidence from emerging market economies. Turkish Studies, 13/14, 15–32. https://doi.org/10.7827/TurkishStudies.13477
   Google Scholar
• Brooks, D. (2013). Defending the coup. New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/05/opinion/brooks-defending-the-coup.html.
   Google Scholar
• Brunnermeier, M. K., James, H., & Landau, J.-P. (2016). The Euro and the battle of ideas. Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Das, D. K. (2012). The Chinese economy. The Chinese Economy, 45(4), 7–38. https://doi.org/10.2753/CES1097-1475450401
   Google Scholar
• Doucouliagos, H., & Ulubaşoğlu, M. A. (2008). Democracy and economic growth: A meta-analysis. American Journal of Political Science, 52(1), 61–83. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00299.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Eberhardt, M. (2019). Democracy does cause growth: Comment. CEPR discussion paper 13659. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research.
   Google Scholar
• Fleming, J. M. (1962). Domestic financial policies under fixed and under floating exchange rates. Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, 9(3), 369–379. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866091
   Google Scholar
• Friedman, T. L. (1999). The Lexus and the olive tree: Understanding globalization. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
   Google Scholar
• Front News. (2017). Xi Jinping said about common points in the development strategies of Russia and China. https://frontnews.eu/news/en/6168/Xi-Jinping-said-about-common-points-in-the-development-strategies-of-Russia-and-China.
   Google Scholar
• Giaviazzi, F., & Tabellini, G. (2005). Economic and political liberalizations. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(7), 1297–1330.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2016). The middle-income trap - definitions, theories and countries concerned: A literature survey. Comparative Economic Studies, 58(4), 507–538. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-016-0014-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2019). The deep determinants of economic development in China - A provincial perspective. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 24(4), 484–514. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2019.1636610
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2020a). China in the middle-income trap? China Economic Review, 60 (April), 101264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2019.01.003
   Google Scholar
• Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2020b). The role of institutional quality and human capital for economic growth across Chinese provinces - A dynamic panel data approach. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 18(3), 209–219. https://doi.org/10.1080/14765284.2020.1755140
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Larson, C. (2018). China’s AI imperative. Science, 359(6376), 628–630. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.359.6376.628
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lipset, S. M. (1959). Some social requisites of democracy. American Political Science Review, 53 (1), 69–105. https://doi.org/10.2307/1951731
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mundell, R. A. (1963). Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates. The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 29(4), 475–485. https://doi.org/10.2307/139336
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Muqiao, X. (1981). China’s socialist economy. Foreign Language Press.
   Google Scholar
• Murach, M., & Wagner, H. (2021). The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective. Review of International Economics. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12527
   Google Scholar
• Murtin, F., & Wacziarg, R. (2014). The democratic transition. Journal of Economic Growth, 19(2), 141–181. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-013-9100-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Naughton, B. (2017). Is China socialist? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(1), 3–24. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.31.1.3
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Obstfeld, M., Shambaugh, J. C., & Taylor, A. M. (2005). The trilemma in history: Tradeoffs among exchange rates, monetary policies, and capital mobility. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(3), 423–438. https://doi.org/10.1162/0034653054638300
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peng, D., & Fei, X. (2017). China’s free trade zones: Regulatory innovation, legal assessment and economic implication. The Chinese Economy, 50(4), 238–248. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2017.1321886
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Persson, T., & Tabellini, G. (2006). Democracy and development: The devil in the details. American Economic Review, 96(2), 319–324. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282806777212396
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Posner, R. (2010). Autocracy, democracy and economic welfare. The Becker-Posner blog: A blog by Gary Becker and Richard Posner. http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2010/10/autocracy-democracy-and-economic-welfareposner.html.
   Google Scholar
• Prasad, E. (2009). Rebalancing growth in Asia. IZA discussion papers 4298. Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics.
   Google Scholar
• Przeworski, A., & Limongi, F. (1993). Political regimes and economic growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7(3), 51–69. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.7.3.51
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Qiang, X. (2019). The road to digital unfreedom: President Xi’s surveillance state. Journal of Democracy, 30(1), 53–67. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2019.0004
   Google Scholar
• Roberts, M. E. (2018). Censored: Distraction and diversion inside China’s great firewall. Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Rodrik, D. (2000). How far will international economic integration go? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(1), 177–186. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.14.1.177
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rodrik, D., & Wacziarg, R. (2005). Do democratic transitions produce bad economic outcomes? American Economic Review, 95(2), 50–55. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282805774670059
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shambaugh, J. C. (2004). The effect of fixed exchange rates on monetary policy. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 301–352. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355304772839605
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Song, S. (2015). Challenges to China after becoming an upper-middle income country. Chinese Economy, 48(1), 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2015.993174
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stijepic, D., & Wagner, H. (2019). A system-theoretical discussion of the (non-)sustainability of the development strategies. SSRN Paper No. 3317576. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3317576 or https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.17329.84327
   Google Scholar
• Sun, W. (2017). business cycle synchronization and monetary policy coordination between the U.S. and China: Evidence from a structural VAR model. The Chinese Economy, 50(1), 3–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2016.1211902
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tavares, J., & Wacziarg, R. (2001). How democracy affects growth. European Economic Review, 45(8), 1341–1378. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(00)00093-3
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wagner, H. (2017). The building up of new imbalances in China: The dilemma with rebalancing. International Economics and Economic Policy, 14(4), 701–722. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-016-0360-4
   Google Scholar
• Wagner, H. (2018). On the (non-) sustainability of China's development strategies. [long Version]. CEAMeS Discussion Paper No. 6. SSRN Paper No. 2946768. Hagen: Center for East-Asia Macroeconomic Studies. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2946768
   Google Scholar
• Wagner, H. (2019a). On the (non-) sustainability of China's development strategies. The Chinese Economy, 52(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2019.1580822
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wagner, H. (2019b). Structural Change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle income trap in China. International Journal of China Studies, 10(1), 1–25.
   Google Scholar
• Yün, H. (1976). Implement the policy of taking agriculture as the foundation and industry as the leading factor. Chinese Economy, 9(4), 28–38.
   Google Scholar