Managed retreat and experimentation: realising opportunity in the Ōtautahi Christchurch residential red zone, Aotearoa New Zealand

References

• Almeida R. 2023. Auckland anniversary flood damage: homeowners to get payouts. RNZ. 6 October. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/499598/auckland-anniversary-flood-damage-homeowners-to-get-payouts.
   Google Scholar
• Ao Z, Hu X, Tao S, Hu Z, Wang G, Li M, Wang F, Hu L, Liang X, Xiao J, et al. 2024. A national-scale assessment of land subsidence in China’s major cities. Science. 384:381–386.
   Google Scholar
• APA. 2018. APA college dictionary of psychology. American Psychological Association. https://dictionary.apa.org/thought-experiment.
   Google Scholar
• Bailey-Winiata APS. 2021. Understanding the potential exposure of coastal marae and urupā in Aotearoa New Zealand to sea level rise [Unpublished PhD dissertation]. University of Waikato.
   Google Scholar
• Barrett P. 2023. Intersections between housing affordability and meanings of home: a review. Kōtuitui, New Zealand Journal of Social Sciences Online. 18(1):27–44. doi:10.1080/1177083X.2022.2090969.
   Google Scholar
• Beagley R, Gardner M. 2023. Waiho River. Historic and future management strategies. Christchurch: Land River Sea Consulting.
   Google Scholar
• Blackburn M. 2023. Housing consultant. Interview, 16 August.
   Google Scholar
• Blackburn S. 2016. Thought experiment. In: Oxford dictionary of philosophy. 3rd ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://dictionary.apa.org/thought-experiment.
   Google Scholar
• Blakie T. 2023. In UNICEF, putting children’s futures first. https://www.unicef.org.nz/media-releases/our-voices-must-be-heard.
   Google Scholar
• Boston J. 2017. Safeguarding the future. Governing in an uncertain world. Wellington: Bridget Williams Books.
   Google Scholar
• Bowring J. 2021. Tree sense of place. In: Goldsmith J, editor. Tree sense. Ways of thinking about trees. Auckland: Massey University Press; p. 105–121.
   Google Scholar
• Brown JR, Fehige Y. 2023. Thought experiments. In: Zalta EN, Nodelman U, editors. The Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy. https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2023/entries/thought-experiment/
   Google Scholar
• Carrington D. 2023. Rising seas threaten ‘mass exodus on a biblical scale’, UN chief warns. Guardian. 14 February. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/14/rising-seas-threaten-mass-exodus-on-a-biblical-scale-un-chief-warns.
   Google Scholar
• CCC. 2023. Memo. Assessment framework for projects in the Ōtākaro Avon river corridor. Christchurch City Council. 11 September.
   Google Scholar
• Climate Overshoot Commission. 2023. Reducing the risks of climate overshoot. www.climateovershootcommission.org.
   Google Scholar
• Cloke P, Conradson D, Pawson E, Perkins HC. 2023. The post-earthquake city. Disaster and recovery in Christchurch, New Zealand. Abingdon: Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Cretney R. 2019. “An opportunity to hope and dream”: disaster politics and the emergence of possibility through community-led recovery. Antipode. 51(2):497–516. doi:10.1111/anti.12431.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Daalder M. 2023. Defining issues: on the front line of the climate crisis in Westport. Newsroom. 9 October. https://newsroom.co.nz/2023/10/09/defining-issues-what-to-do-with-westport/.
   Google Scholar
• Dedekorkut-Howes A, Torabi E, Howes M. 2020. When the tide gets high: a review of adaptive responses to sea level rise and coastal flooding. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management. 63(12):2102–2143. doi:10.1080/09640568.2019.1708709.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ericksen N. 1986. Creating flood disasters? New Zealand’s need for a new approach to urban flood hazard. Wellington: National Water and Soil Conservation Authority.
   Google Scholar
• Expert Working Group on Managed Retreat. 2023. Report of the Expert Working Group on Managed Retreat: a proposed system for te hekenga rauora/planned relocation. Wellington: New Zealand Government.
   Google Scholar
• Finlayson C, Christmas J. 2021. He kupu taurangi. Treaty settlements and the future of Aotearoa New Zealand. Wellington: Huia Publishers.
   Google Scholar
• Freeman C. 2023. Residential diversity in the densifying city. Paper presented at the State of Australasian Cities Conference, Victoria University of Wellington, 8 December.
   Google Scholar
• Gundermann B. 2014. A holistic transition to climate-resilient cities. Auckland: Urbia Group.
   Google Scholar
• Haasnoot M, Lawrence J, Magnan AK. 2021. Pathways to coastal retreat. Science. 372(6548):1287–1290. doi:10.1126/science.abi6594.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hanna C, White I, Glavovic B. 2018. Managed retreat governance: insights from matatā, New Zealand. Report for the National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature's Challenges. Hamilton: University of Waikato.
   Google Scholar
• Hanna C, White I, Glavovic B. 2021. Managed retreats by whom and how? Identifying and delineating governance modalities. Climate Risk Management. 31:100278. doi:10.1016/j.crm.2021.100278.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Harker J. 2016. Housing built upon sand. Advancing managed retreat in New Zealand. Australasian Journal of Environmental Law. 3:66–85.
   Google Scholar
• Hauer ME, Evans JM, Mishra DR. 2016. Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States. Nature Climate Change. 6:691–695. doi:10.1038/nclimate2961.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Henderson D. 2023. Christchurch property developer. Interview, 24 October.
   Google Scholar
• Hill A. 2023. Climate change and US property insurance: a stormy mix. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/article/climate-change-and-us-property-insurance-stormy-mix.
   Google Scholar
• Howden-Chapman P, Fyfe C, Nathan K, Keall M, Riggs L, Pierse N. 2021. The effects of housing on health and well-being in Aotearoa New Zealand. New Zealand Population Review. 47:16–32.
   Google Scholar
• Ingoe M. 2024. NZ Insurance Council conference mulls risk of climate change. RNZ. 8 March. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/511165/nz-insurance-council-conference-mulls-risks-of-climate-change.
   Google Scholar
• Irvine B. 2023. Chair, Heartland Bank. Interview, 27 October.
   Google Scholar
• Jones N. 2015. Climate change: Kiwis will need to uproot. New Zealand Herald. 3 April.
   Google Scholar
• Joseph M. 2013. Fluid New York. Cosmopolitan urbanism and the green imagination. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Kennedy AM, Gislason MK. 2022. Intergenerational approaches to climate change mitigation for environmental and mental health co-benefits. The Journal of Climate Change and Health. 8:100173. doi:10.1016/j.joclim.2022.100173.
   Google Scholar
• Kennedy D. 2024. Our coastline’s point of no return. The Age. January 15.
   Google Scholar
• Kerr R. 2023. Formerly General Manager, Red Zone, Regenerate Christchurch. Interviews, 24 February, 30 June.
   Google Scholar
• Levitan D. 2023. When the world misses climate change targets, this is what happens next. The Messenger, 15 September. https://themessenger.com/tech/overshoot-commission-report-climate-change-targets-geoengineering-mitigation.
   Google Scholar
• Maldonado J, Marino E, Iaukea L. 2020. Reframing the language of retreat. EOS. 101. doi:10.1029/2020EO150527.
   Google Scholar
• Manch T. 2024. Committee to investigate climate adaptation. The Press. 11 May.
   Google Scholar
• Mary Robinson Foundation. 2013. Climate justice: an intergenerational approach. https://www.mrfcj.org/media/pdf/Intergenerational-Equity-Position-Paper-2013-11-16.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• McDowall C, Denee T. 2019. We are here. An atlas of Aotearoa. Auckland: Massey University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Mene C. 2023. Formerly General Manager, Partnerships and Engagement, Regenerate Christchurch. Interview, 11 August.
   Google Scholar
• Ministry for the Environment. 2023. Community-led retreat and adaptation funding: issues and options. Wellington: New Zealand Government.
   Google Scholar
• Moore G. 2023. Former Mayor of Christchurch. Interview, 13 July.
   Google Scholar
• Moore R. 2020. As climate risks worsen, U.S. flood buyouts fail to meet the need. Yale Environment 360. 23 January. https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-climate-risks-worsen-u.s.-flood-buyouts-fail-to-meet-the-need.
   Google Scholar
• Moser SC, Williams SJ, Boesch DF. 2012. Wicked challenges at land’s end: managing coastal vulnerabiliuty under climate change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 37:51–78. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-021611-135158.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Newton K. 2024. Managed retreat: how do we get out of the way of climate change? RNZ. 8 May. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/516237/managed-retreat-how-do-we-get-out-of-the-way-of-climate-change.
   Google Scholar
• Nicholls RJ, Lincke D, Hinkel J, Brown S, Vafeidis AT, Meyssignac B, Hanson SE, Merkens J-L, Fang J. 2021. A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure. Nature Climate Change. 11:338–342. doi:10.1038/s41558-021-00993-z.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nicholson H. 2023. Formerly Design Lead, Ōtākaro Avon Regeneration Plan, Regenerate Christchurch. Interview, 19 April.
   Google Scholar
• OECD. 2024. OECD economic surveys: New Zealand 2024. Paris: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
   Google Scholar
• Ohenhen LO, Manoochehr S, Barnard PL. 2024. Slowly but surely: exposure of communities and infrastructure to subsidence on the US east coast. PNAS Nexus. 3(1):1–14. doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad426.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Orchard S. 2017. Floodplain restoration principles for the Avon Ōtākaro red zone. Case studies and recommendations. Christchurch: Avon Ōtākaro Network.
   Google Scholar
• Ovink H, Boeijenga J. 2018. Too big. Rebuild by design: a transformative approach to climate change. Rotterdam: naiOIO.
   Google Scholar
• Pawson E. 2011. Environmental hazards and natural disasters. New Zealand Geographer. 67(3):143–147. doi:10.1111/j.1745-7939.2011.01207.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pawson E. 2022. Planning, governance and a city for the future? In: Uekusa S, Matthewman S, Glavovic B, editors. A decade of disaster experiences in Ōtautahi Christchurch. Critical disaster studies perspectives. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan; p. 317–334.
   Google Scholar
• Pawson E, Kerr R, Mein Smith P, Williams C. 2019. Governance case studies. The Ōtākaro Avon river corridor. Christchurch: University of Canterbury.
   Google Scholar
• Pawson E, Poskitt M, Weiser A. 2022. Community-based undergraduate research. In: Mieg HA, Ambos E, Brew A, Galli DM, Lehmann J, editors. The Cambridge handbook of undergraduate research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; p. 670–682.
   Google Scholar
• PCE. 2015. Preparing New Zealand for rising seas: certainty and uncertainty. Wellington: Parliamentary Commission for the Environment.
   Google Scholar
• Peart R, Boston J, Maher S, Konlechner T. 2023. Principles and funding for managed retreat. Aotearoa New Zealand’s Climate Change Adaptation Act: building a durable future, Working Paper 1. Auckland: Environmental Defence Society.
   Google Scholar
• Peart R, Tombs BD. 2023. Current legislative and policy framework for managed relocation. Aotearoa New Zealand’s Climate Change Adaptation Act: building a durable future, Working Paper 2. Auckland: Environmental Defence Society.
   Google Scholar
• Peart R, Tombs BD, Marshall K. 2023. Options and models for managed relocation policy. Aotearoa New Zealand’s Climate Change Adaptation Act: building a durable future, Working Paper 3. Auckland: Environmental Defence Society.
   Google Scholar
• Peet N. 2018. The invading sea. Coastal hazards and climate change in Aotearoa New Zealand. Wellington: Cuba Press.
   Google Scholar
• Public Service Commission. 2023. Deliberative processes: citizens’ juries and citizens’ assemblies. https://www.publicservice.govt.nz/publications/deliberative-processes-citizens-juries-and-citizens-assemblies/.
   Google Scholar
• Rameka L. 2016. Kia whakatōmuri te haere whakamua: ‘I walk backwards into the future with my eyes fixed on my past’. Contemporary Issues in Early Childhood. 17(4):387–398. doi:10.1177/1463949116677923.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reid J. 2023. Ngāi Tahu Centre, University of Canterbury. Interview, 19 October.
   Google Scholar
• Reid J, Challies E, Tau TM, Awatere S. 2024. Adapting to climate change through nature-based solutions and indigenous knowledge: the case for landscape-scale ecosystem regeneration in the Rokohouia Delta. Kōtuitui: New Zealand Journal of Social Sciences Online. 1–19. doi:10.1080/1177083X.2023.2299364.
   Google Scholar
• Reimann L, Vafeidis AT, Honsel LE. 2023. Population development as a driver of coastal risk: current trends and future pathways. Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures. 1(e14):1–12. doi:10.1017/cft.2023.3.
   Google Scholar
• Regenerate Christchurch. 2019. Ōtākaro Avon River Corridor Regeneration Plan. Christchurch: Regenerate Christchurch.
   Google Scholar
• Rentschler J, Avner P, Marconcini M, Su R, Strano E, Vousdoukas M, Hallegatte S. 2023. Global evidence of rapid urban growth in flood zones since 1985. Nature. 622:87–92. doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06468-9.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ricketts E. 2023. Without a paddle. Listener. 11(November):17–21.
   Google Scholar
• Shaw J. 2023. Discussion between the former Minister for Climate Change and Thomas Blakie at COP28, Dubai, 9 December.
   Google Scholar
• Siders AR, Hino M, Mach KJ. 2019. The case for strategic and managed climate retreat. Why, when, where and how should communities relocate? Science. 365(6455):761–763. doi:10.1126/science.aax8346.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Siders AR, Mach K. 2021. ‘Managed retreat’ done right can reinvent cities so they’re better for everyone – and avoid harm from flooding, heat and fires, The Conversation. June 22. https://theconversation.com/managed-retreat-done-right-can-reinvent-cities-so-theyre-better-for-everyone-and-avoid-harm-from-flooding-heat-and-fires-163052.
   Google Scholar
• Sierra G. 2023. Could climate change break home insurance? Why it matters. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/could-climate-change-break-home-insurance.
   Google Scholar
• South Dunedin Future. 2024. https://www.dunedin.govt.nz/council/council-projects/south-dunedin-future.
   Google Scholar
• Spanger-Siegfried E, Fitzpatrick M, Dahl K. 2014. Encroaching tides. How sea level rise and tidal flooding threaten U.S. East Coast and Gulf communities over the next 30 years. Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists.
   Google Scholar
• Stock R. 2023. IAG begins insurer ‘retreat’ from flood-prone homes. The Press. 20 September.
   Google Scholar
• Stodola S. 2023. If hurricane rebuilding is affordable only for the wealthy, this is the Florida you get. New York Times. 27 September.
   Google Scholar
• Storey B, Owen S, Noy I, Zammit C. 2020. Insurance retreat: sea level rise and the withdrawal of residential insurance in Aotearoa New Zealand. Report for the Deep Sea National Science Challenge. https://deepsouthchallenge.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Insurance-Retreat-December-2020-Final-Report.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Sturman A, Quénol H. 2024. Climate change. Impacts and adaptation at regional and local scales. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Swiss Re. 2024. Natural catastrophes in 2023: gearing up for today’s and tomorrow’s weather risks. Sigma 1. Zurich: Swiss Re Institute.
   Google Scholar
• Thaler T. 2021. Just retreat – how countries deal with it: examples from Austria and England. Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences. 11:412–419. doi:10.1007/s13412-021-00694-1.
   Google Scholar
• Torabi E, Dedekorkut-Howes A. 2021. When it’s time to let go: re-imagining coastal urban living in the face of rising seas. In: Baumeister J, Bertone E, Burton P., editors. SeaCities. Singapore: Springer; p. 39–58.
   Google Scholar
• Treasury. 2023. Briefing to the incoming Finance Minister. Economic and fiscal context. Wellington: The Treasury.
   Google Scholar
• UCCRN. 2018. The future we don’t want. How climate change could impact the world’s greatest cities. Urban Climate Change Research Network, Technical Report. https://www.c40.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/1789_Future_We_Dont_Want_Report_1.4_hi-res_120618.original-compressed.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Vince G. 2023. Nomad century. How to survive the climate upheaval. Dublin: Penguin.
   Google Scholar
• White FR, Urlich SC, Rennie HG. 2023. Newly-claimed seascapes: options for repurposing inundated areas. Global Environmental Change Advances. 1:100002. doi:10.1016/j.gecadv.2023.100002.
   Google Scholar
• Whitehouse P, George D. 2017. From intergenerational to intergenerative: towards the futures of intergenerational learning and health. Journal of Intergenerational Relationships. 16(1-2):196–204. doi:10.1080/15350770.2018.1404862.
   Google Scholar
• Williams M. 2024. Council asks government for funds. Otago Daily Times. 27 April.
   Google Scholar
• Woods M. 2019. Report on decisions made in approving the draft Ōtākaro Avon River Corridor Regeneration Plan. Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, 15 August.
   Google Scholar