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Original Articles

Missile Defence, the ABM Treaty, and Nuclear Weapons--An Opportunity Missed

Pages 87-104 | Published online: 19 Aug 2010

  • Huisken , Ron . May 2001 . ABM vs BMD: The Issue of Ballistic Missile Defence , Working Paper No.357 May , Canberra : Strategic & Defence Studies Centre, ANU . For a more comprehensive account of the road to NMD see
  • Glaser , Charles L. and Fetter , Steve . 2001 . 'National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy' . International Security , 26 ( 1 ) : 40 – 92 . For an excellent US analysis of the NMD programme that draws broadly similar conclusions, see
  • Holum , John D. 1999 . 'The Proliferation of Weapon s of Mass Destruction: Challenges and Responses,' . US Foreign Policy Agenda , September : 10 – 13 . (then senior adviser to the Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security)
  • See Walter Pincus, 'Nuclear Arms Plan: Saving, Not Scrapping'. This article also reports plans for additional expenditure to permit a speedier resumption of testing.
  • Koch , Andrew . 2001 . 'Bush to Reinforce Bio-weapons Treaty' . Jane's Defense Weekly , 7 November : 8 On 1 November 2001, the Bush administration launched proposals to strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) that put the onus on individual government s rather than on multilateral machinery. See
  • Hussein , Rifaat . 2001 . 'Pakistan Tightens Control over Nuclear Weapons' . Jane's Defense Weekly , 21 November : 3 In addition to the long-running programme with Russia, the United States has already shared some high technology security and fail-safe systems with Pakistan. See
  • Sanger , David E. and Tyler , Patrick E. 2001 . 'Aides Recount Road to Deadlock with Russia over ABM Talks' . New York Times , 13 December This article reports that, in early November, Defence Secretary Rumsfeld described the test programme the US had in mind to President Putin. Putin responded that this would effectively 'gut' the treaty. The US side agreed
  • Stokes , Mark . 1999 . 'China's Strategic Modernisation: Implications for the United States' . US Army Strategic Studies Institute , September See, for example
  • Medalia , Jonathan . 1997 . 'Chinese Nuclear Testing and Warhead Development' . Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress , 14 November
  • Gordon , Philip H. 2001 . 'Bush, Missile Defence and the Atlantic Alliance' . Survival , 43 ( 1 ) : 17 – 36 . For a good overview see
  • Buerkle , Tom . 2000 . 'UK Panel Questions US Missile Shield Plans' . International Herald Tribune , 3 August
  • Qirinlan , Sir Michael . 2001 . 'United States National Missile Defence' . Royal United Service Institute Journal , February : 41
  • Biden , Joseph R. Jr . 2001 . 'Missile Defense Delusion' . Washington Post , 19 December
  • Milbank , Dana . 2001 . 'Bush Exercises Executive Muscle' . Washington Post , 13 December Quoted in
  • Richter , Paul and Wright , Robin . 2001 . 'Plans to Quit ABM Treaty Called Timely' . Los Angeles Times , 13 December
  • Wines , Michael . 2001 . 'Putin Sees Continued Alliance Despite End of ABM Pact' . New York Times , 18 December
  • 2001 . 'Rumsfeld Goes Full-Bore for Ballistic Missile Defense' . Aviation Week & Space Technology , 2 July : 37 – 38 . The Navy Area Wide system for defence against shorter-range missiles was cancelled in December 2001 because it was more than SO per cent over budget and more than two years behind schedule. See
  • Dao , James . 2001 . 'Navy Missile Plan Is Cancelled by the Pentagon' . New York Times , 16 December
  • 'Rumsfeld Goes Full-Bore for Ballistic Missile Defense', p. 38.
  • O'Hanlon , Michael E. 2001 . 'Double Talk on Missile Defense' . Washington Post , 31 July One estimate suggests that current plans could result in at least 1000 missile interceptors capable of engaging long-range missiles. See
  • Krepon , Michael . 2001 . 'Moving Away from MAD' . Survival , 43 ( 2 ) : 81 – 95 . A discussion of the issue of a cooperative transition that the author found particularly valuable was
  • 1997 . 'U.S. Updates' Nuclear War Guidelines' . New York Times , 8 December
  • 2000 . Trapped in the Nuclear Math' . New York Times , 12 June Given the nature of the thinking that goes into these plans, however, the suggestion that China did not figure in any way in the targeting plans in the 1980s and 1990s seems implausible
  • Smith , R. Jeffrey . 1997 . 'Clinton Directive Changes Strategy on Nuclear Arms' . Washington Post , 7 December
  • 1997 . New York Times , 9 December
  • Erlich , Jeff . 1998 . 'New US Nuclear Policy Maintains Ambiguity ' . Defense News , 5-11 January
  • 1997 . 'Clinton Issues New Guidelines on US Nuclear Weapons Doctrine' . Arms Control Today , November/December : 23 Quoted in. See also 'New US Nuclear Policy Maintains Ambiguity'
  • National Institute for Public Policy . 2001 . Rationale and Requirements for US Nuclear Forces and Arms Control, Volume 1, Executive Report Volume 1 , Washington DC
  • Payne , Keith . 2001 . 'Drop Cold War Nuclear Policy' . Defence News , 19 March One 'senior administration official' reportedly described this report as a 'broad road map' on nuclear policy. See
  • Statement of Admiral W. Myers, Commander in Chief, US Strategic Command, before the Senate Armed Services Committee Strategic Subcommittee on Command Posture, 11 July 2001, p. 18.
  • 'Rationale and Requirements for US Nuclear Forces and Arms Control', p. 4.
  • 2001 . 'US Rethink Could Spark "Mini-Nukes'" . Jane's Defence Weekly , 23 May There have been some indications of US interest in developing a nuclear warhead that would penetrate deeply into the earth before detonating. See
  • Pincus , Walter . 2000 . 'Senate Bill Requires Study of New Nuclear Weapon ' . Washington Post , 12 June
  • 'Rationale and Requirements for US Nuclear Forces and Arms Control', p. 9.
  • Pincus , Walter . 2002 . 'Nuclear Arms Plan: Saving, Not Scrapping' . Washington Post , 9 January It appears that many issues concerned with the structure and character--the dimensions in addition to size that Bush indicated would change--are still to be decided. Following an initial top-secret briefing to Congressional staffers on 9 January (Congress was in recess), a participant said, 'They did not tell us how the remaining promised reductions would be made; they did not know what the remaining nuclear force structure would look like; and they were not sure how many would be stored or destroyed. ' See
  • Feiveson , Harold A. , ed. 1999 . 'The Nuclear Turning Point , 193 – 213 . Washington : Blockings Institution Press . There have been several recent proposals broadly along these lines, that is, for minimal nuclear force postures and involving the minor nuclear powers rather than nuclear disarmament. See in particular
  • 1997 . 'The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy , Washington : US National Academy of Sciences .
  • 2001 . 'Russia Suggests ABM Meetings' . Moscow Times , 9 July : 3 Russia proposed in July 2001 that the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (also the five acknowledged nuclear weapon states) set up a standing forum to consider ways to ensure strategic stability, notably deep cuts in nuclear arms and preserving the ABM treaty. See, There appears to have been little reaction to this proposal

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