884
Views
4
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Climate change

Climate risk assessment in the MDB – a review

Pages 18-30 | Received 25 Sep 2022, Accepted 05 Dec 2022, Published online: 19 Dec 2022

References

  • ABC. 2022. “Management Plan Must Consider First Nations, Climate Change, Says New Murray-Darling Basin Boss” Accessed 22 November 2022. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-22/andrew-mconville-press-club-murray-darling-basin-indigenous/101679590
  • Abel, N., R. Wise, M. Colloff, B. Walker, J. Butler, P. Ryan, C. Norman, et al. 2016. “Building Resilient Pathways to Transformation When “No One is in Charge”: Insights from Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin.” Ecology and Society 21 (2): art23. doi:10.5751/ES-08422-210223.
  • Acreman, M., Arthington A. H., Colloff M. J., Couch C., N. D.Crossman, Dyer F., Overton, I.… Pollino C A., Stewardson M J., and Young W. 2014. “Environmental Flows for Natural, Hybrid, and Novel Riverine Ecosystems in a Changing World.” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 12 (8): 466–473. doi:10.1890/130134.
  • Alexandra, J. 2020. “The Science and Politics of Climate Risk Assessment in Australia’s Murray Darling Basin.” Environmental Science & Policy 112: 17–27. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2020.05.022. 2020.05.022.
  • Alexandra, J. 2021. “Navigating the Anthropocene’s Rivers of Risk—climatic Change and Science-Policy Dilemmas in Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin Climatic Change.” 165: 1. doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03036-w.
  • Alexandra, and J. Alexandra. 2022. “Climate Adaptation Options for the 2026 MDB Plan: Opportunities for Managing Climate Risk.” Australasian Journal of Water Resources 1–14. doi:10.1080/13241583.2022.2133643.
  • Alexandra, J., and J. Donaldson. 2012. “Climate Change and Water - Knowledge, Scarcity and Innovation” In: KA Daniell (edited by) Water and Climate: Policy Implementation Challenges; Proceedings of the 2nd Practical Responses to Climate Change Conference, Barton, A.C.T.: Engineers Australia, Canberra: Australia, 494–501.
  • Alexandra, J., and M.C. Finlayson. 2020. “Floods After Bushfires: Rapid Responses for Reducing Impacts of Sediment, Ash, and Nutrient Slugs.” Australasian Journal of Water Resources 24: 9–11. doi:10.1080/13241583.2020.1717694.
  • Alexandra, J., and L. Rickards. 2021. “The Contested Politics of Drought, Water Security and Climate Adaptation in Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin.” Water Alternatives 14 (3): 773–794.
  • Allouche, J., C. Middleton, and D. Gyawali. 2019. The Water–Food–Energy Nexus: Power, Politics, and Justice. Abingdon UK: Routledge.
  • Australian Academy of Science. 2019. “Report into Mass Fish Kills in the Menindee Region” NSW Australian Academy of Science Canberra.
  • Bender, I., M.J. Colloff, J. Pittock, and C. Wyborn. 2022. “Unfortunate Diversions: A Policy Discourse Analysis on the Adjustment of the Volume of Water Returned to the Environment in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.” Australasian Journal of Water Resources. doi:10.1080/13241583.2022.2077685.
  • BOM. 2020. Accessed 30 Jan 2021. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=anomaly&period=36month®ion=md&year=2022&month=08&day=31
  • Chaffin, B C., H. Gosnell, and B A. Cosens. 2014. “A Decade of Adaptive Governance Scholarship: Synthesis and Future Directions.” Ecology and Society 19 (3): 56. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-06824-190356.
  • Chiew, F., W. Cai, and I. Smith. 2009. Advice on Defining Climate Scenarios for Use in Murray-Darling Basin Authority Basin Plan Modelling. Canberra: CSIRO.
  • Chiew, F.H.S., H. Zheng, N.J. Potter, S.P. Charles, M. Thatcher, F. Ji, J. Syktus, D.E. Robertson, and D.A. Post. 2022. “Different Hydroclimate Modelling Approaches Can Lead to a Large Range of Streamflow Projections Under Climate Change: Implications for Water Resources Management.” Water 14: 2730. doi:10.3390/w14172730.
  • COAG. 2004. “The National Water Initiative” Accessed 23 November 2022. https://Www.Dcceew.gov.au/Water/Policy/Policy/Nwi
  • Colloff, M., R. Q. Grafton, and J. Williams. 2021. “Scientific Integrity, Public Policy and Water Governance in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.” Australasian Journal of Water Resources 25: 121–140. doi:10.1080/13241583.2021.1917097.
  • Colloff, M. J., and J. Pittock. 2022. “Mind the Gap! Reconciling Environmental Water Requirements with Scarcity in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia.” Water 14 (2): 208. doi:10.3390/w14020208.
  • Commonwealth of Australia. 2007. “Water Act 2007, Canberra” Accessed 22 November2022. www.CommonwealthofAustralia.au
  • CSIRO. 2006. Risks to the Shared Water Resources of the Murray-Darling Basin: Part II in a Two Part Series on the Shared Water Resources of the Murray-Darling Basin Prepared for the Murray-Darling Basin Commission. Canberra: CSIRO and Murray Darling Basin Commission. doi:10.4225/08/587e5c700131a.
  • CSIRO. 2008. “Water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin - CSIRO Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project CSIRO” Accessed December12 2021. https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=legacy:530&dsid=DS1
  • CSIRO. 2010. “Climate change and variability in SE Australia – A synthesis of Phase 1 of SEACI” CSIRO Canberra
  • CSIRO. 2012. “SEACI Phase 2 Synthesis Report, Climate and Water Availability in South-Eastern Australia” 9 November 2021. www.seaci.org/publications/documents/SEACI-2Reports/SEACIPhase2SynthesisReport.pdf
  • CSIRO. 2022. “State of the Climate 2022” 23 November 2022. https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/State-of-the-Climate
  • Dankel, DJ., NS. Vaage, and JP. van der Sluijs. 2017. “Post-Normal Science in Practice.” Futures 91: 1–4. 2017.05.009. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2017.05.009.
  • Donohue, RJ., ML. Roderick, and TR. McVicar. 2011. “Assessing the Differences in Sensitivities of Runoff to Changes in Climatic Conditions Across a Large Basin.” Journal of Hydrology 406 (3–4): 234–244. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.07.003.
  • Donohue, RJ., ML. Roderick, TR. McVicar, and GD. Farquhar. 2013. “Impact of CO2 Fertilisation on Maximum Foliage Cover Across the Globe’s Warm, Arid Environments.” Geophysical Research Letters 40: 3031–3035. doi:10.1002/grl.50563.
  • Dupuis, J. 2018. “Climate Change Adaptation as a New Global Norm in the Water Sector? Between Symbolism and Dilution.” In A Critical Approach to International Water Management Trends, Vol. 93, 177–200. LondonLondon: Palgrave Macmillan. doi:http://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-60086-8_8.
  • Earth Tech Engineering Pty Ltd. 2003. Review of Selected Factors That May Change Future Flow Patterns in the River Murray System. Canberra: Murray-Darling Basin Commission.
  • Finlayson, C. M., S. J. Capon, D. Rissik, J. Pittock, G. Fisk, N. C. Davidson, K. A. Bodmin, et al. 2017. “Policy Considerations for Managing Wetlands Under a Changing Climate.” Marine & Freshwater Research 68: 1803–1815. doi:10.1071/MF16244.
  • Gallant, AJE., and J. Gergis. 2011. “An Experimental Streamflow Reconstruction for the River Murray, Australia, 1783–1988.” Water Resources Research 47: W00G04. doi:10.1029/2010WR009832.
  • Gao, Z., D. Guo, M. C. Peel, and M. J. Stewardson. 2022. “Understanding Regional Streamflow Trend Magnitudes in the Southern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.” Australasian Journal of Water Resources 26 (2): 213–226. doi:10.1080/13241583.2022.2074942.
  • Gissing, A., M. Timms, S. Browning, R. Crompton, and J. McAneney. 2022. “Compound Natural Disasters in Australia: A Historical Analysis.” Environmental Hazards 21 (2): 159–173. doi:10.1080/17477891.2021.1932405.
  • Goesch, T., P. Legg, and M. Donoghoe 2020. “Murray-Darling Basin Water Markets: Trends and Drivers 2002-03 to 2018-19” ABARES Research Report, Canberra.
  • Grafton, R. Q., M. J. Colloff, V. Marshall, and J. Williams. 2020. “Confronting a ‘Post-Truth Water World’ in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.” Water Alternatives 13 (1): 1–28.
  • Grafton, R.Q., and J. Williams. 2019. “Rent-Seeking Behaviour and Regulatory Capture in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.” International Journal of Water Resources Development. doi:10.1080/07900627.2019.1674132.
  • Grove, K. 2015. “Catastrophe Insurance and the Biopolitics of Climate Change Adaptation.” In Reframing Climate Change: Constructing Ecological Geopolitics, edited by S. O’Lear and S. Dalby, 187–203. London: Routledge.
  • Haasnoot, M., J. H. Kwakkel, W. E. Walker, and J. Ter Maat. 2013. “Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A Method for Crafting Robust Decisions for a Deeply Uncertain World.” Global Environmental Change 23 (2): 485–498. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006.
  • Hatton, T., and W. Young. 2011. “Delivering Science into Public Policy: An Analysis of Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Assessment as a Model for Impact.” The Australian Journal of Public Administration 70 (3): 298–308. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8500.2011.00730.x.
  • Horne, A. C., Webb J. A., Mussehl M., John A., Rumpff L., Fowler K., Lovell, D.…, and Poff L. . 2022. “Not Just Another Assessment Method: Reimagining Environmental Flows Assessments in the Face of Uncertainty.” Frontiers in Environmental Science 446. doi:10.3389/fenvs.2022.808943.
  • Hulme, M. 2008. “The Conquering of Climate: Discourses of Fear and Their Dissolution.” The Geographical Journal 174: 5–16. doi:10.1111/j.1475-4959.2008.00266.x.
  • Jackson, S., and L. Head. 2020. “Australia’s Mass Fish Kills as a Crisis of Modern Water: Understanding Hydrological Change in the Murray-Darling Basin.” Geoforum 109: 44–56. doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2019.12.020.
  • Jarman, A., and A. Kouzmin. 1994. “Disaster Management as Contingent Meta-Policy Analysis: Water Resource Planning.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 45 (2): 119–130. doi:10.1016/0040-1625(94)90089-2.
  • Kiem, AS., and DC. Verdon-Kidd. 2013. ”The Importance of Understanding Drivers of Hydroclimatic Variability for Robust Flood Risk Planning in the Coastal Zone.” Australasian Journal of Water Resources 17 (2): 126–134. 2013.17. 2. doi:10.7158/W13-015.2013.17.2.
  • Kundzewicz, Z. W., V. Krysanova, R. E. Benestad, Ø. Hov, M. Piniewski, and I. M. Otto. 2018. “Uncertainty in Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources.” Environmental Science & Policy 79: 1–8. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2017.10.008.
  • Larson, K.L., D.D. White, P. Gober, and A. Wutich. 2015. “Decision-Making Under Uncertainty for Water Sustainability and Urban Climate Change Adaptation.” Sustainability 7: 14761–14784. doi:10.3390/su71114761.
  • Marchau, V. A., W. E. Walker, P. J. Bloemen, and S. W. Popper. 2019. Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice, 405. Cham Switzerland: Springer Nature.
  • Marlow, D. 2020. “Creating and Then Abolishing Bodies of Scientific Knowledge, Expertise and Analytical Capability: An Australian Political Malaise.” Proceedings of the Royal Society of Queensland, Brisbane Australia, Vol. 124, 27–47.
  • Marshall, GR., D. Connell, and BT. Taylor. 2013. “Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin: A Century of Polycentric Experiments in Cross-Border Integration of Water Resources Management.” International Journal of Water Governance 1: 197–218. doi:10.7564/13-IJWG17.
  • Mastrotheodoros, T., C. Pappas, P. Molnar, P. Burlando, G. Manoli, J. Parajka, R. Rigon, et al. 2020. “More Green and Less Blue Water in the Alps During Warmer Summers.” Nature Climate Change 10: 155–161. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0676-5.
  • MDBA. 2019. “Climate Change and the Murray–Darling Basin Plan Murray–Darling Basin Authority” Accessed 20 3 2021. https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/pubs/Climate-change-discussion-paper-Feb-19.pdf
  • MDBMC Ministerial Council (2004) “Prospects for Future Deterioration in Flow in the Murray-Darling Basin” unpublished Ministerial Council agenda paper
  • Milly, PCD., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, RM. Hirsch, ZW. Kundzewicz, DP. Lettenmaier, and RJ. Stouffer. 2008. “Climate Change: Stationarity is Dead: Whither Water Management?” Science 319 (5863): 573–574. doi:10.1126/science.1151915.
  • Mocatta, G., and E. Hawley. 2020. “Uncovering a Climate Catastrophe? Media Coverage of Australia’s Black Summer Bushfires and the Revelatory Extent of the Climate Blame Frame.” M/C Journal 23 (4). doi:10.5204/mcj.1666.
  • Neave, I., A. McLeod, G. Raisin, and J. Swirepik. 2015. “Managing Water in the Murray-Darling Basin Under a Variable and Changing Climate.” Water: Journal of the Australian Water Association 42 (2): 102–107.
  • O’Donnell, E. L., A. C. Horne, L. Godden, and B. Head. 2019. “Cry Me a River: Building Trust and Maintaining Legitimacy in Environmental Flows.” Australasian Journal of Water Resources 23: 1–13. doi:10.1080/13241583.2019.1586058.
  • O’Donnell, E. L., and R. Nelson. 2020. “Shield Science for Robust Decisions.” Nature Sustainability 3: 675–676. doi:10.1038/s41893-020-0541-6.
  • Pahl-Wostl, C., L. Lebel, C. Knieper, and E. Nikitina. 2012. “From Applying Panaceas to Mastering Complexity: Toward Adaptive Water Governance in River Basins.” Environmental Science & Policy 23: 24–34. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.014.
  • Palmer, MA., CA. Reidy Liermann, C. Nilsson, M. Flörke, J. Alcamo, PS. Lake, and N. Bond. 2008. “Climate Change and the World’s River Basins: Anticipating Management Options.” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 6: 81–89. doi:10.1890/060148.
  • Peterson, T.J., M. Saft, M.C. Peel, and A. John. 2021. “Watersheds May Not Recover from Drought.” Science 372: 745–749. doi:10.1126/science.abd5085.
  • Pittock, J., and CM. Finlayson. 2011. “Australia’s Murray - Darling Basin: Freshwater Ecosystem Conservation Options in an Era of Climate Change.” Marine & Freshwater Research 62 (3): 232–243. doi:10.1071/MF09319.
  • Pittock, J., R. Q. Grafton, and J. Williams. 2015. “The Murray-Darling Basin Plan Fails to Deal Adequately with Climate Change.” Water 42 (6): 28–34.
  • Prosser, IP., FHS. Chiew, and M. Stafford Smith. 2021. “Adapting Water Management to Climate Change in the Murray–Darling Basin.” Australia Australia Water 13 (18): 2504. doi:10.3390/w13182504.
  • Renn, O. 2015. “Stakeholder and Public Involvement in Risk Governance.” International Journal of Disaster and Risk Science 8 (9): 8–20. doi:10.1007/s13753-015-0037-6.
  • Renn, O. (2016) ‘Systemic Risks: The New Kid on the Block’ Environ Science and Policy Sustain Dev 58(2) 26–36
  • Renn, O. 2021. “New Challenges for Risk Analysis: Systemic Risks.” Journal of Risk Research 24 (1): 127. doi:10.1080/13669877.2020.1779787.
  • Rickards, L., J. Wiseman, and Y. Kashima. 2014. “Barriers to Effective Climate Change Mitigation: The Case of Senior Government and Business Decision Makers.” Wiley Interdisciplinary Review Climate Change 5: 753–773. doi:10.1002/wcc.305.
  • Roderick, M. (2011). Introduction to Special Section on Water Resources in the Murray-Darling Basin: Past, Present, and Future. Water Resources Research 47, W00G01.10.1029/2011WR010991
  • Roderick, M., and G. Farquhar. 2011. “A Simple Framework for Relating Variations in Runoff to Variations in Climatic Conditions and Catchment Properties.” Water Resources Research 47: W00G07–11. doi:10.1029/2010WR009826.
  • Ross, M., Bernhardt Emily S, M. Doyle, and J. Heffernan. 2015. “Designer Ecosystems: Incorporating Design Approaches into Applied Ecology.” Annual Review of Environment and Resources 40 (1): 419–443. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-121012-100957.
  • Ross, A., R. Evans, and R. Nelson. 2022. “Risks Related to Groundwater in the Murray Darling Basin.” Australasian Journal of Water Resources 1–16. doi:10.1080/13241583.2022.2140904.
  • Schlosberg, D., L. B. Collins, and S. Niemeyer. 2017. “Adaptation Policy and Community Discourse: Risk, Vulnerability, and Just Transformation.” Environmental politics 26 (3): 413–437. doi:10.1080/09644016.2017.1287628.
  • Schoeman, J., C. Allan, and C.M. Finlayson. 2014. “A New Paradigm for Water? A Comparative Review of Integrated, Adaptive and Ecosystem-Based Water Management in the Anthropocene.” International Journal of Water Resources Development 30: 377–390. doi:10.1080/07900627.2014.907087.
  • Schweizer, V., M.J. Colloff, and J. Pittock. 2022. “The Dammed and the Saved: A Conservation Triage Framework for Wetlands Under Climate Change in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia.” Environmental management 70: 549–564. doi:10.1007/s00267-022-01692-x.
  • Taylor, M. 2014. Global Warming and Climate Change: What Australia Knew and Buried … Then Framed a New Reality for the Public. Canberra: ANU Press. https://pressfiles.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p303951/pdf/book.pdf.
  • Ukkola, A., I. Prentice, T F. Keenan, A. van Dijk, N. Viney, R. Myneni, and J. Bi. 2016. “Reduced Streamflow in Water-Stressed Climates Consistent with CO2 Effects on Vegetation Nature Climate Change.” 6: 75–78. doi:10.1038/nclimate2831.
  • van Dijk, AI., HE. Beck, RS. Crosbie, R. de Jeu, Y. Liu, G. Podger, B. Timbal, and N. Viney. 2013. “The Millennium Drought in Southeast Australia (2001–2009): Natural and Human Causes and Implications for Water Resources, Ecosystems, Economy, and Society.” Water Resources Research 49: 1040–1057. doi:10.1002/wrcr.20123.
  • Von Korff, Y., S. Moellenkamp Daniell, R. M. Bots, P. Bijlsma, and R M. Bijlsma. 2012. “Implementing Participatory Water Management: Recent Advances in Theory, Practice, and Evaluation.” Ecology and Society 17 (1): 30. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-04733-170130.
  • Walker, B. 2019. “Report of the South Australian MDB Royal Commission” Government of South Australia.
  • Wallis, P., and R. L. Ison. 2011. “Appreciating Institutional Complexity in Water Governance Dynamics: A Case from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.” Water Resources Management 25 (15): 4081–4097. doi:10.1007/s11269-011-9885-z.
  • Wang, G., and W. Cai. 2020. “Two-Year Consecutive Concurrences of Positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño Preconditioned the 2019/2020 Australian “Black Summer” Bushfires.” Geoscience Letters 7 (19). doi:10.1186/s40562-020-00168-2.
  • Wang, J., A. Horne, R. Nathan, M. Peel, and I. Neave. 2018. “Vulnerability of Ecological Condition to the Sequencing of Wet and Dry Spells Prior to and During the Murray–Darling Basin Millennium Drought.” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 144 (8): 04018049. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000963.
  • Wheeler, S. A., Y. Xu, and A. Zuo. 2020. “Modelling the Climate, Water and Socio-Economic Drivers of Farmer Exit in the Murray-Darling Basin.” Climatic Change 158: 551–574. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02601-8.
  • Whetton, P., and F. Chiew. 2021. “Climate Change in the Murray–Darling Basin.” In Ecohydrology from Catchment to Coast, Murray-Darling Basin, Australia: Its Future Management, edited by BT Hart, NR. Bond, N Byron, CA Pollino, and MJ Stewardson, 253–274. Vol. 1. Amsterdam: Elsevier. doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-818152-2.00012-7.
  • Whetton, PH., MR. Grose, and KJ. Hennessy. 2016. “A Short History of the Future: Australian Climate Projections 1987–2015 Climate Services.” 2 (3): 1–14. doi:10.1016/J.CLISER.2016.06.001.
  • Williams, J. 2017. “Water Reform in the Murray-Darling Basin: A Challenge in Complexity in Balancing Social, Economic and Environmental Perspectives.” Journal and Proceedings - Royal Society of New South Wales 150 (1): 68–92.
  • Young, B., G. Jones, and D. Blackmore. 2011. “Report on the Science Leaders Forum” Accessed 20 December 2019 https://www.mdba.gov.au/publications/archived-information/mdba-science-leaders-forum
  • Yu, J., G. Fu, W. Cai, and T. Cowan. 2010. “Impacts of Precipitation and Temperature Changes on Annual Streamflow in the Murray-Darling Basin Water International.” 35 (3): 313–323. doi:10.1080/02508060.2010.484907.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.