1,716
Views
4
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Inflation expectations after financial crisis: are consumers more forward-looking?

ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Pages 1052-1072 | Received 30 Dec 2017, Accepted 18 Jan 2019, Published online: 10 Jul 2019

References

  • Anderson, T. W., & Hsiao, C. (1982). Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 18(1), 47–82. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(82)90095-1
  • Andreou, E., Eminidou, S., & Zachariadis, M. (2016). Inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe (CEPR Discussion Paper, 11306). London: Center for Economic Policy Research.
  • Batchelor, R. A., & Orr, A. B. (1988). Inflation expectations revisited. Economica. New Series, 55(219), 317–331. doi:10.2307/2554010
  • Beck, N., & Katz, J. (1995). What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data in comparative politics. American Political Science Review, 89(03), 634–647. doi:10.2307/2082979
  • Beck, N., & Katz, J. N. (2011). Modeling dynamics in time-series–cross-section political economy data. Annual Review of Political Science, 14, 331–352. doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-071510-103222
  • Benazić, M., & Rami, J. (2016). Monetary policy and unemployment in Croatia. Economic Research–Ekonomska Istraživanja, 29(1), 1038–1049. doi:10.1080/1331677X.2016.1211955
  • Carlson, J. A., & Parkin, J. M. (1975). Inflation expectations. Economica, 42(166), 123–138. doi:10.2307/2553588
  • Croissant, Y., & Millo, G. (2008). Panel data econometrics in R: The plm package. Journal of Statistical Software, 27(2), 1–43. doi:10.18637/jss.v027.i02
  • Crowe, C., & Meade, E. (2008). Central bank independence and transparency: Evolution and effectiveness. European Journal of Political Economy, 24(4), 763–777. doi: doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2008.06.004
  • Dias, F., Duarte, C., & Rua, A. (2010). Inflation expectations in the euro area: Are the consumers rational? Review of World Economics, 146(3), 560–591. doi:10.1007/s10290-010-0058-6
  • Dovern, J., & Kenny, G. (2017). The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: What has changed since the great recession? (EBC Working Paper Series, 1999). Frankfurt am Main: European Central Bank.
  • Dräger, L. (2015). Inflation perceptions and expectations in Sweden—Are media reports the missing link? Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77(5), 681–700. doi:10.1111/obes.12078
  • Ehrmann, M., Eijffinger, S., & Fratzscher, M. (2012). The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 114(3), 1018–1052. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9442.2012.01706.x
  • Erjavec, N., Lolić, I., & Sorić, P. (2015). How (i)rrational are we? A case of Croatian inflation. Croatian Operational Research Review CRORR, 6(1), 241–253. doi:10.17535/crorr.2015.0019
  • European Commission (2016). The joint harmonized EU programme of business and consumer surveys. User Guide. Retrieved fromhttp://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/documents/bcs_user_guide_en.pdf
  • Fukač, M. (2010). Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and forward-looking monetary policy. In P. Sinklar (ed.), Inflation expectations (pp. 62–75). London: Routledge.
  • Geraats, P. M. (2013). Transparency, flexibility, and macroeconomic stabilization. In: P. L., Siklos, & J.-E., Sturm (Eds.), Central Bank communication, decision making, and governance: Issues, challenges, and case studies (pp. 49–82). Cambridge MA: The MIT Press.
  • Geraats, P. M. (2014). Monetary policy transparency. In J., Forssbaeck, & L., Oxelheim (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of economic and institutional transparency (pp. 111–152). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Gerberding, C. (2001). The information content of survey data on expected price development for monetary policy (Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, 9). Frankfurt am Main: Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Greene, W. H. (2008). Econometric analysis. Upper Saddle River, N.J: Prentice Hall.
  • Heinemann, F., & Ullrich, K. (2006). The impact of EMU on inflation expectations. Open Economies Review, 17(2), 175–195. doi:10.1007/s11079-006-6809-2
  • Hsiao, C. (2007). Panel data analysis—Advantages and challenges. Test, 16(1), 1–22. doi:10.1007/s11749-007-0046-x
  • Hubert, P. (2015a). Do central bank forecasts influence private agents forecasting performance vs. signals? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(4), 771–789. doi:10.1111/jmcb.12227
  • Hubert, P. (2015b). The influence and policy signalling role of FOMC forecasts. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 75(5), 655–680. doi:10.1111/obes.12093
  • Kashin, K. (2015). PanelAR: Estimation of linear AR(1) panel data models with cross-sectional heteroscedasticity and/or correlation. Retrieved fromhttps://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/panelAR/index.html
  • Kiviet, J. F. (1995). On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models, Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 53–78. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(94)01643-E
  • Kokoszczyński, R., Łyziak, T., & Stanisławska, E. (2010). Consumer inflation expectations: Usefulness of survey-based measures—A cross-country survey. In P. Sinclair (ed.), Inflation expectations (pp. 76–100). Oxford: Routledge.
  • Kristensen, I. P., Samii, C., & Wawro, G. J. (2011). On the use of fixed effect estimators for time series cross-section data. Unpublished draft. Retrieved fromhttp://cyrussamii.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/kristensen_etal.pdf.
  • Łyziak, T. (2009). Measuring consumer inflation expectations in Europe and examining their forward-lookingness (MPRA Paper, 18890). Munich: Personal RePEc Archive.
  • Łyziak, T. (2010). Measurement of perceived and expected inflation on the basis of consumers survey data (Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistic Working Papers, 5). Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
  • Łyziak, T. (2013). Formation of inflation expectations by different economic agents. The case of Poland. Eastern European Economics, 51(6), 5–33. doi:10.2753/EEE0012-8775510601
  • Łyziak, T., & Mackiewicz-Łyziak, J. (2014). Do consumers in Europe anticipate future inflation? Has it changed since the beginning of the financial crisis? Eastern European Economics, 52(3), 5–32. doi:10.2753/EEE0012-8775520301
  • Moundigbaye, M., Rea, W. S., & Reed, R. W. (2017). Which panel data estimator should I use?: A corrigendum and extension. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 12(2018-4), 1–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2018-4.
  • Miah, F., Rahman, S., & Albinali, K. (2016). Rationality of survey based inflation expectations: A study of 18 emerging economies’ inflation forecasts. Research in International Business and Finance, 36, 158–166. doi: doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.09.029
  • Millo, G. (2017). Robust standard error estimators for panel models: A unifying approach. Journal of Statistical Software, 82(3), 1–27. doi:10.18637/jss.v082.i03
  • Mitchell, J., & Weale, M. (2007). The rationality and reliability of expectations reported by British households: Micro evidence from the British Household Panel Survey. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, 19. Frankfurt am Main: Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Parks, R. (1967). Efficient estimation of a system of regression equations when disturbances are both serially and contemporaneously correlated. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62(318), 500–509. doi:10.2307/2283977
  • Reed, R. W., & Ye, H. (2011). Which panel data estimator should I use? Applied Economics, 43(8), 985–1000. doi:10.1080/00036840802600087
  • Reed, R. W., & Webb, R. (2010). The PSE estimator is good—Just not as good as you think (Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers in Economics, 10/53). Christchurch: University of Canterbury.
  • Skořepa, M., & Kotlán, V. (2003). Assessing future inflation in inflation targeting: Forecasts or simulations. In Monetary policy in changing environment (pp. 147–157). Bank for International Settlements Paper No. 19. Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
  • Zeileis, A. (2004). Econometric computing with HC and HAC covariance matrix estimators. Journal of Statistical Software, 11(10), 1–17. http://www.jstatsoft.org/v11/i10/.