Advanced search
Publication Cover
Applied Economics Letters Volume 30, 2023 - Issue 1
Submit an article Journal homepage
135
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Firms’ subjective uncertainty and forecast errors: survey evidence from Japan

Masayuki Morikawaa Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, Japan;b Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI), Chiyoda-ku, JapanCorrespondence[email protected]
View further author information
Pages 33-36 | Published online: 27 Aug 2021

References

  • Altig, D., J. M. Barrero, N. Bloom, S. J. Davis, B. H. Meyer, and N. Parker. 2020. “Surveying Business Uncertainty.” Journal of Econometrics. forthcoming. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.03.021.
  • Bachmann, R., and S. Elstner. 2015. “Firm Optimism and Pessimism.” European Economic Review 79: 297–325. doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.07.017.
  • Ben-David, I., J. R. Graham, and C. R. Harvey. 2013. “Managerial Miscalibration.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 128 (4): 1547–1584. doi:10.1093/qje/qjt023.
  • Bloom, N. 2014. “Fluctuations in Uncertainty.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 28 (2): 153–176. doi:10.1257/jep.28.2.153.
  • Boero, G., J. Smith, and K. F. Wallis. 2008. “Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters.” The Economic Journal 118 (530): 1107–1127. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02162.x.
  • Bontempi, M. E., R. Golinelli, and G. Parigi. 2010. “Why Demand Uncertainty Curbs Investment: Evidence from a Panel of Italian Manufacturing Firms.” Journal of Macroeconomics 32 (1): 218–238. doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2009.03.004.
  • Clements, M. P. 2008. “Consensus and Uncertainty: Using Forecast Probabilities of Output Declines.” International Journal of Forecasting 24 (1): 76–86. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.06.003.
  • Clements, M. P. 2014. “Forecast Uncertainty: Ex Ante and Ex Post: U.S. Inflation and Output Growth.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 32 (2): 206–216. doi:10.1080/07350015.2013.859618.
  • Coibion, O., Y. Gorodnichenko, and S. Kumar. 2018. “How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence.” American Economic Review 108 (9): 2671–2713. doi:10.1257/aer.20151299.
  • Engelberg, J., C. F. Manski, and J. Williams. 2009. “Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 27 (1): 30–41. doi:10.1198/jbes.2009.0003.
  • Guiso, L., and G. Parigi. 1999. “Investment and Demand Uncertainty.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 114 (1): 185–227. doi:10.1162/003355399555981.
  • Ito, T. 1990. “Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data.” American Economic Review 80 (3): 434–449.
  • Manski, C. F. 2018. “Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise.” In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, edited by C. F. Manski, 411–471, University of Chicago Press: Chicago.
  • Massenot, B., and Y. Pettinicchi. 2018. “Can Firms See into the Future? Survey Evidence from Germany.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 145: 66–79. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2017.10.018.
  • Morikawa, M. 2019. “Uncertainty over Production Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis Using Monthly Quantitative Survey Data.” Journal of Macroeconomics 60: 163–179. doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.01.007.
  • Pesaran, M. H., and M. Weale. 2006. “Survey Expectations.” In Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edited by G. Elliott, C. W. J. Granger, and A. Timmermann, 715–776. Vol. 1. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
  • Pierdzioch, C., and G. Stadtmann. 2011. “Do Exchange-Rate Forecasters Herd?” Applied Economics Letters 18 (8): 739–741. doi:10.1080/13504851.2010.502108.
  • Rich, R., and J. Tracy. 2010. “The Relationship between Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts.” Review of Economics and Statistics 92 (1): 200–207. doi:10.1162/rest.2009.11167.
  • Tanaka, M., N. Bloom, J. M. David, and M. Koga. 2020. “Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy.” Journal of Monetary Economics 114: 26–41. doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.02.008.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Order Reprints Request Corporate Permissions

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

Request Academic Permissions

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.

Supercharge Your Next Research Paper: Research and write your next paper with Jenni AI.

Related research

People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read.

Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine.

Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.
Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab.