275
Views
1
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Forecasting oil futures price volatility with economic policy uncertainty: a CARR-MIDAS model

, &

References

  • Alizadeh, S., M. W. Brandt, and F. X. Diebold. 2002. “Range-based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models.” The Journal of Finance 57 (3): 1047–1091. doi:10.1111/1540-6261.00454.
  • Andersen, T. G., T. Bollerslev, F. X. Diebold, and H. Ebens. 2001. “The Distribution of Realized Stock Return Volatility.” Journal of Financial Economics 61: 43–76. doi:10.1016/S0304-405X(01)00055-1.
  • Baker, S. R., N. Bloom, and S. J. Davis. 2016. “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (4): 1593–1636. doi:10.1093/qje/qjw024.
  • Brandt, M. W., and C. S. Jones. 2006. “Volatility Forecasting with Range-based EGARCH Models.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 24 (4): 470–486. doi:10.1198/073500106000000206.
  • Chou, R. 2005. “Forecasting Financial Volatilities with Extreme Values: The Conditional Autoregressive Range (CARR) Model.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 37 (3): 561–582. doi:10.1353/mcb.2005.0027.
  • Degiannakis, S., and G. Filis, 2019. “Oil Price Volatility Forecasts: What Do Investors Need to Know?” Munich Working Paper Series.
  • Degiannakis, S., and A. Livada. 2013. “Realized Volatility or Price Range: Evidence from a Discrete Simulation of the Continuous Time Diffusion Process.” Economic Modelling 30: 212–216. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.027.
  • Diebold, F. X., and R. S. Mariano. 1995. “Comparing Predictive Accuracy.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13 (3): 253–263.
  • Elder, J., and A. Serletis. 2010. “Oil Price Uncertainty. Journal of Money.” Credit and Banking 42 (6): 1137–1159. doi:10.1111/j.1538-4616.2010.00323.x.
  • Elliott, G., and A. Timmermann. 2008. “Economic Forecasting.” Journal of Economic Literature 46 (1): 3–56. doi:10.1257/jel.46.1.3.
  • Engle, R. F., E. Ghysels, and B. Sohn. 2013. “Stock Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals.” Review of Economics and Statistics 95 (3): 776–797. doi:10.1162/REST_a_00300.
  • Li, X., Y. Wei, X. Chen, F. Ma, C. Liang, and W. Chen. 2020. “Which Uncertainty Is Powerful to Forecast Crude Oil Market Volatility? New Evidence.” International Journal of Finance and Economics. doi:10.1002/ijfe.2371.
  • Ma, R., C. Zhou, H. Cai, and C. Deng. 2019. “The Forecasting Power of EPU for Crude Oil Return Volatility.” Energy Reports 5: 866–873. doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2019.07.002.
  • Parkinson, M. 1980. “The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return.” Journal of Business 53: 61–65. doi:10.1086/296071.
  • Xie, H. B., and X. Y. Wu. 2017. “A Conditional Autoregressive Range Model with Gamma Distribution for Financial Volatility Modeling.” Economic Modelling 64: 349–356. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2017.04.001.
  • Yi, A., M. Yang, and Y. Li. 2021. “Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Crude Oil Futures Volatility: Evidence from China Crude Oil Futures Market.” Frontiers in Environmental Science 9: 1–13. doi:10.3389/fenvs.2021.636903.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.