2,675
Views
6
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Communicating uncertainty in risk descriptions: the consequences of presenting imprecise probabilities in time critical decision-making situations

, & ORCID Icon
Pages 629-644 | Received 20 May 2019, Accepted 22 Jun 2020, Published online: 06 Aug 2020

References

  • Aven, T. 2013a. “On How to Deal with Deep Uncertainties in a Risk Assessment and Management Context.” Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 33 (12): 2082–2090. doi:10.1111/risa.12067.
  • Aven, T. 2013b. “Practical Implications of the New Risk Perspectives.” Reliability Engineering & System Safety 115: 136–145. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2013.02.020.
  • Aven, T., P. Baraldi, R. Flage, and E. Zio. 2014. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainty by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods. West Sussex: Wiley.
  • Aven, T., O. Renn, and E. Rosa. 2011. “On the Ontological Status of the Concept of Risk.” Safety Science 49 (8–9): 1074–1079. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2011.04.015.
  • Baron, J. 2008. Thinking and Deciding. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Becker, S. W., and F. O. Brownson. 1964. “What Price Ambiguity? or the Role of Ambiguity in Decision-Making.” Journal of Political Economy 72 (1): 62–73. doi:10.1086/258854.
  • Bjerga, T., and T. Aven. 2015. “Adaptive Risk Management Using New Risk Perspectives – an Example from the Oil and Gas Industry.” Reliability Engineering & System Safety 134: 75–82. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2014.10.013.
  • Budescu, D. V., S. Broomell, and H.-H. Por. 2009. “Improving Communication of Uncertainty in the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.” Psychological Science 20 (3): 299–308. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02284.x.
  • Cox, L. A. Jr., 2008. “ What´s Wrong with Risk Matrices?” Risk Analysis 28: 497–512.
  • Curley, S. P., F. Yates, and R. A. Abrams. 1986. “Psychological Sources of Ambiguity Avoidance.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 38 (2): 230–256. doi:10.1016/0749-5978(86)90018-X.
  • Dieckmann, N. F., R. Mauro, and P. Slovic. 2010. “The Effects of Presenting Imprecise Probabilities in Intelligence Forecasts.” Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 30 (6): 987–1001. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01384.x.
  • Dieckmann, N. F., E. Peters, and R. Gregory. 2015. “At Home on the Range? Lay Interpretations of Numerical Uncertainty Ranges.” Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 35 (7): 1281–1295. doi:10.1111/risa.12358.
  • Dieckmann, N. F., E. Peters, R. Gregory, and M. Tusler. 2012. “Making Sense of Uncertainty: advantages and Disadvantages of Providing an Evaluative Structure.” Journal of Risk Research 15 (7): 717–735. doi:10.1080/13669877.2012.666760.
  • Duijm, N. J. 2015. “Recommendations on the Use and Design of Risk Matrices.” Safety Science 76: 21–31. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2015.02.014.
  • Durbach, I. N., and T. J. Stewart. 2011. “An Experimental Study of the Effect of Uncertainty Representation on Decision Making.” European Journal of Operational Research 214 (2): 380–392. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2011.04.021.
  • Einhorn, H. J., and R. M. Hogarth. 1985. “Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Probabilistic Inference.” Psychological Review 92 (4): 433–461. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.92.4.433.
  • Ellsberg, D. 1961. “Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 75 (4): 643–669. doi:10.2307/1884324.
  • Eraker, S. A., and H. C. Sox. 1981. “Assessment of Patients' Preferences for Therapeutic Outcomes.” Medical Decision Making: An International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 1 (1): 29–39. doi:10.1177/0272989X8100100105.
  • Flage, R., T. Aven, E. Zio, and P. Baraldi. 2014. “Concerns, Challenges, and Directions of Development for the Issue of Representing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment.” Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 34 (7): 1196–1207. doi:10.1111/risa.12247.
  • Fox, C. R., and A. Tversky. 1995. “Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (3): 585–603. doi:10.2307/2946693.
  • Frisch, D., and J. Baron. 1988. “Ambiguity and Rationality.” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 1 (3): 149–157. doi:10.1002/bdm.3960010303.
  • Goerlandt, F., and G. Reniers. 2016. “On the Assessment of Uncertainty in Risk Diagrams.” Safety Science 84: 67–77. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2015.12.001.
  • Gregory, R., and N. Dieckmann. 2014. “Communicating about Uncertainty in Multistakeholder Groups.” In Effective Risk Communication, edited by J. Árvai, and L. Rivers III, 56–72. London: Routledge.
  • Heath, A., I. Manolopoulou, and G. Baio. 2017. “A Review of Methods for Analysis of the Expected Value of Information.” Medical Decision Making: An International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 37 (7): 747–758. doi:10.1177/0272989X17697692.
  • Heath, C., and T. Tversky. 1991. “Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 4 (1): 5–28. doi:10.1007/BF00057884.
  • Hershey, J. C., and P. J. H. Schoemaker. 1980. “Risk Taking and Problem Context in the Domain of Losses: An Expected Utility Analysis.” The Journal of Risk and Insurance 47 (1): 111–132. doi:10.2307/252685.
  • Joslyn, Susan L., and Jared E. LeClerc. 2012. “Uncertainty Forecasts Improve Weather-Related Decisions and Attenuate the Effects of Forecast Error.” Journal of Experimental Psychology. Applied 18 (1): 126–140. doi:10.1037/a0025185.
  • Keren, G., and L. E. M. Gerritsen. 1999. “On the Robustness and Possible Accounts of Ambiguity Aversion.” Acta Psychologica 103 (1–2): 149–172. doi:10.1016/S0001-6918(99)00034-7.
  • Kleindorfer, P. R., H. C. Kunreuther, and P. J. H. Schoemaker. 1993. Decision Sciences: An Intergrative Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Larson, J. R. 1980. “Exploring the External Validity of a Subjectively Weighted Utility Model of Decision Making.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 26 (3): 293–304. doi:10.1016/0030-5073(80)90069-0.
  • Lin, L., A. Nilsson, J. Sjölin, M. Abrahamsson, and H. Tehler. 2015. “On the Perceived Usefulness of Risk Descriptions for Decision-Making in Disaster Risk Management.” Reliability Engineering & System Safety 142: 48–55. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2015.04.012.
  • Lipkus, I. M. 2007. “Numeric, Verbal, and Visual Formats of Conveying Health Risks: Suggested Best Practices and Future Recommendations.” Medical Decision Making: An International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 27 (5): 696–713. doi:10.1177/0272989X07307271.
  • Lipshitz, R., and O. Strauss. 1997. “Coping with Uncertainty: A Naturalistic Decision-Making Analysis.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 69 (2): 149–163. doi:10.1006/obhd.1997.2679.
  • MacCrimmon, K. R., and D. A. Wehrung. 1986. Taking Risks: The Management of Uncertainty. New York: The Free Press.
  • Peters, D. J., L. A. Jackson, J. K. Phillips, and K. G. Ross. 2008. “The Time to Decide: How Awareness and Collaboration Affects the Command Decision Making.” In Battle of Cognition: The Future Information-Rich Warfare and the Mind of the Commander, edited by A. Kott, 194–211. Westport: Praeger Security International.
  • Rausand, M. 2011. Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications. New Jersey: Wiley.
  • Shadish, W. R., T. D. Cook, and D. T. Campbell. 2002. Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Generalized Causal Inference. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
  • Trautmann, S. T., and G. van de Kuilen. 2015. “ Ambiguity Attitudes.” In Blackwell Handbook of Judgement and Decision Making, edited by G. Keren, and G. Wu, 89–116. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
  • Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman. 1981. “The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.” Science (New York, N.Y.) 211 (4481): 453–458. doi:10.1126/science.7455683.
  • Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman. 1986. “Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions.” The Journal of Business 59 (S4): S251–S278. doi:10.1086/296365.
  • Van Creveld, M. 1985. Command in War. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. doi:10.1086/ahr/91.1.85-a.
  • Veland, H., and T. Aven. 2015. “Improving the Risk Assessment of Critical Operations to Better Reflect Uncertainties and the Unforeseen.” Safety Science 79: 206–212. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2015.06.012.
  • Visschers, V. H. M. 2017. “Judgement under Uncertainty: Evaluations of Univocal, Ambiguous and Conflicting Probability Information.” Journal of Risk Research 20 (2): 237–255. doi:10.1080/13669877.2015.1043569.